DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Coaching Search Continued

4th and 1 converts at like 60% in the NFL-- surely more with a back like Chubb, an accurate QB like Mayfield, and a defense down to 1 healthy cornerback, but let's go with 60%.

Coming up with the exact winning percentages in each game situation is tricky. With that, the algebra is pretty simple. If I had the league average data on hand, I'd use it, but for now I'll just guestimate it.



Strategy: Go for it

Convert (60%): First down inside the Broncos 10, up 17-16 with <2 minutes left and Broncos no timeouts. Browns win probability ~100%

Don't convert (40%): Broncos with 1:45 at own ~10, no timeouts, down 1. Browns win probability 60%

(.6*1)+(.4*.6)= .84 = 84% winning percentage



Strategy: Kick FG

Make FG (97%): Kickoff to Broncos with 1:45, up 4. Browns win probability 80%

Miss FG (3%): similar enough to "Don't convert" above, Browns win probability 60%

(.97*.8)+(.03*.6) = .794 = 79.4% winning percentage



What's the problem again?

I hope they interview Freddie for the top job as well. He was prepared when his shot came as OC, and he has a RBs coach in mind to replace him.

I bet he has a plan if he was ever to be offered the top job.

Nice post Pit. I agree. No need to search far and wide when it is right in front of you.



Gregg and Freddy are logged in to these guys, and they are logged in to them.

Then that will be his flaw if he is more interested in bringing in his guy and not go with what works.


Let me ask this: If Williams was the official head coach, would his performance be worthy of termination?

A yes or no answer is all that is needed.

It was MORONIC ... to me, thats a problem ... ...

Like i said ... i could care less what the STATS said when it was all said and done ...

I’m making them go the extra 35 yards to score the TD with NO TIMEOUTS and that WEAK ASS ARMED qb and this ROOKIE WR’S ...

Rodgers, Adams .... Brees, Thomas ... Brady, Gronk weren’t on the opposite side of the field .. it was CASE frickin KEENUM with a #1 whose had about 5 starts in teh NFL under his belt ...

How many TD’s had they scored up til then ..... how many FG’s they kicked up til then ....

HMMMMMMM ..... ...

.... how long u been retired bro .... this aint your courtroom my friend ... ...

I refuse to answer under those constraints Mr. Peen ... ...

I think Williams would normally kick the field goal, but in this case it was 4th and 1, and he wanted to send a message to the team.


Hey, it did work out just fine.

Joseph has been better lately, but its not like we had Gostkowski or Zuerlein to run out there for the FG. Haus's stats indicate a 97% chance of success for a FG there, but with Joseph its more like 85%, IMO. His lack of consistency might have played a part in Gregg's decision to go for it. IIRC, the guy has missed 3 extra points and a couple gimme-length FGs.

That may have played a part, but I don't think the biggest part.

As Williams said later, we went there to win the game. 1 yard would have won the game then and there.

Had we lost on a late FG, I honestly don't think I would be complaining about the call, even if Hue made the call.


I have been a advocate of going for it more often for a long time. A head coach should expect his guys to be able to gain 1 yard.

I said at the time that I agreed with the strategy, but I hated the play call. Sitting at home, you could see them bunching the middle. A play action pass, a toss sweep, or a QB bootleg / TE drag would have done it - probably would have scored a TD.

Most sane people.......... "This is working good. Don't change a thing."

Browns Fans.......... "This is working good. Let's blow it up again!"

Definitely not moronic. You get 1 yd and the game is over. It would actually be moronic not to go for it. If we had kicked the FG and Denver got the ball and marched all the way down for a td, we'd be sitting here criticizing GW because he didn't go for it when all he needed was a yard!

You never want to give the ball back to their offense with a chance to win. Why on earth would you willingly give the ball back with a 4 point lead when you win with a 1 pt lead.

Ugh. I don't believe there are fans who want to blow this up. I do have friends who still hate mayfield, however. They wouldn't hesitate to trade him for Rosen or Darnold, either.

Seriously?

That's ridiculous. Are they Browns fans?

You believe him? LOL

You're at it again.

Do you have anything constructive to say?

Personally I would have kicked the field goal.

I think we need to keep Williams with the understanding that he keeps Kitchens as OC/assistant Head coach. Give Blake Williams a little more money and an enhanced title but bring in another DC that will allow Williams to concentrate on both sides of the ball and Blake Williams more time to learn and grow under another DC.

Me personally .... my answer is ... IN THIS SITUATION ...

Cause im NOT A MORON ...

Yes. They are Browns fans. They tell me baker is not a leader. They tell me based on the stats that baker doesn't look like he will be a good quarterback.

I made a bet with one of them prior to the season which QB out of the draft would have the best career, he chose Rosen. Naturally I took Baker... and I think I already won.

Tell Rasta we said hello ...

Exactly. I'm getting texts about how i'm wrong about him when he has a bad game (texans). I'm getting texts about how he hasn't helped us win. Defense beat Denver. Nick Chubb beat Atlanta. We are winning in spite of Baker, not because. I also bet both of them that Landry would not have 100 catches. Safe to say I won that one also....

I'm for keeping Gregg and Kitchen....I never thought I would say that about double G.

Well my Jet Fan buddies all wish they had Baker.

They must be watching the game with their eyes closed.

You've made a lot of people eat crow as far as i'm concerned.

You picked your guy, you picked him early, you stuck with him and defended him when a lot of people on this board told you you were wrong.

So far, you look right. Ridiculously right.


I came around on Baker toward the end of the draft process. I tried to find everything i could to be on the Sam Darnold train. But, in the end, I couldn't help but be underwhelmed by what i saw in Darnold and i was nothing but impressed by Baker.


Over the past three years, with QBs, I'd have rated (before the drafts) 1 (tied)) Jared Goff & Josh Rosen 3) Mayfield and Wentz (Tied) 5) Trubisky 6) Darnold (Close to Trubisky) 7,8,9,10) Watson, Allen, Jackson, Mahommes but i'm not quite sure of that order


But you, you had your guy, the right guy, picked early. I give you all the credit in the world man. And your friends must be living in dreamland.

I mean, it doesn't even matter how young they could be (and realistically i don't know how old most folks are on here are, except for how long we've been on the board together), do they watch the games?

Interesting scenario has developed here by actually winning some games. Fascinating.

This would have been avoidable if they had just kept Hue! But that wasn't a good option. Can you imagine how hot that seat would be now if the Browns racked up another 4-5 losses?

I didn't like the Baker Mayfield pick at all during the draft. I was pissed! Now, I think its great! Why? Because we are winning games! I've always like GW because he gets fired up and I like seeing that in coaches. I like him now because we are winning. For me, so starved of wins as a Browns fan, if you feed me a few wins I am going to latch onto those wins and whatever comes along with it like a vampire. I remember how upset I was when they shut down Brian Hoyer. Why? Because he actually won some games! He gave me hope. Now I have hope again. In a couple weeks the decision will be made. It *seems* like Dorsey has somewhat of a good eye for some of this stuff. Mayfield and Chubb are good pickups. And a lot of first year drafts for GMs are horrible. I usually don't give anyone any faith or credit until I see wins but now we are getting some wins.

So we'll see what happens. I just want the Browns to win, regardless of who is coaching. Under the assumption that Dorsey will select a good coach, I hope that the players are professional enough to effectively implement whatever system is brought here.

To those convinced that Williams is the ideal choice:

1.) What if Dorsey disagrees? Should the Haslams overrule him?

It's speculation that Dorsey is opposed to Williams, but there's reason to believe it could be the case. For starters, Dorsey has spent his entire professional career with organizations that have committed to offensive-minded head coaches. And that's dating back to the 1980s. The desire for offensive coaches has only increased through the years.

Secondly, Dorsey came to Cleveland with a long list of core competencies for rebuilding and sustaining a franchise, including the profile of a successful head coach. I doubt Williams was part of that list, and I would be surprised if Dorsey abandoned those beliefs because the Browns beat a few below-average football teams.

Again, maybe Dorsey identifies with Williams after working with him and values his leadership, but I think it's reasonable to assume some reservations.

2.) Kitchens is not guaranteed to be a part of the Browns' long-term future.

If the Browns continue to progress as an offense in 2019 - and I think that's another reasonable assumption with an offseason of development - then Kitchens is almost certainly gone in 2020. When an offensive assistant shows offensive development and success, that assistant is fast-tracked for one of the league's annual openings.

So, sure, I understand the desire for continuity for the best thing we've had in a while, but the tandem of Williams and Kitchens is only guaranteed for the next twelve months. As such, it should not be viewed as a tandem hire. You are hiring Williams, period. Because, after 2019, it's entirely possible that Williams is searching for a new coordinator for our franchise quarterbacks, and I've got reservations about that.

For that reason, I'd be more inclined to interview/promote Kitchens to head coach if the foremost goal is to ensure a stable environment for the most important person in the franchise in Baker. It would be a meteoric rise, but not unprecedented, and Kitchens is familiar with the personnel and sets the same kind of no-nonsense approach as a Parcells disciple.

To be clear:

I'm not ruling Williams out of the job. He's done quite well, and might be the best option, but he should still have to beat a field of qualified candidates in a fair, thoughtful process. He should not be handed the job as a reward for short-term results. Again, as far as I'm concerned, this is a long-term appointment. That outlook includes 2019, but it doesn't ignore 2021 or even 2023.

The goal isn't to be good. The goal is to be great. As long-suffering Browns fans, it's great to see good football, but that's not the endgame. The endgame is hoisting a seven-pound football made of sterling silver.

What some seem to forget, concerning Gregg Williams, he is not making any demands for the Browns HCing position.

In an ESPN story dated Nov 28, 2018, by Tony Grossi, Gregg Williams appears to be open to any job he is asked to do if he is not offered the HC job.

Gregg Williams indicates he'd be willing to stay without full-time head coach gig

Nov. 28, 2018
Tony Grossi
ESPN Cleveland
Editor's note: Tony Grossi covers the Cleveland Browns for ESPN 850 WKNR.
[url=
 http://www.espn.com/blog/cleveland/post/...-head-coach-gig ]link[/url]

Takeaways from Browns practice and interviews …

Will he or won’t he?: As Gregg Williams continues to make a strong case for having the “interim” removed from his title, the question persists if he would agree to move back to defensive coordinator if asked by the next Browns head coach.

 
He wouldn’t answer directly, but his response indicated that he would be willing to return in any capacity.

“I love what I do,” Williams said. “In all honesty, If I wasn’t a head coach or defensive coordinator, I’d love to be a special teams coordinator again. I loved that time there. Even the position coach part of it, [and] when I went and helped Mike Munchak being an assistant head coach with him, too [in 2013].

“Leadership, it is what it is … You’ve got to be able to handle the responsibilities they’re asking you to do. I really do love the aspect of having a chance of being in charge of whatever responsibility they give me, not just head coach. I enjoy the competition factor of competing at the NFL level.”

The Browns are 2-1 since Williams was named interim coach on Oct. 29.

At the time, it didn’t seem like he even was their first choice to oversee the team after Hue Jackson were fired. It was at least an hour after Jackson was fired before the team also fired offensive coordinator Todd Haley and named Williams the interim.

Williams had a lot of work ahead to force his way into the discussion as permanent coach. So far, so good.

In house: The handshake-gone-viral spat between Baker Mayfield and Hue Jackson would appear to be the first brushfire for Williams to tend to in his time as interim coach.

He was in no mood to pour gasoline on it.

Asked his thoughts of his quarterback calling his former boss “fake” on social media, Williams went into Bill Belichick mode.

“That game’s over,” Williams said with a chuckle. “Again, If I did talk to him, that’s between him and I. It stays in house and it’s not something we discuss here. That game’s over and we’re on to the Texans.”

Asked about the perils of dealing with players going on social media, Williams said, “It’s never easy. We’ve got to get ready to roll each and every week. We got to get on to the Texans.”

In the open locker room period after Wednesday’s practice, Mayfield said Williams had not spoken to him about the brouhaha.

“We’ll see if that happens down the road. Right now, they expect me to handle things the right way and say the right things and lead this team the right way.”

Another nice post.

I have said I would like to keep Williams, but have also said I understand he might not be the best possible hire. We both understand the hire has to take in account the future, not just a season or two.

I hear you on the offensive mind. It seems to be easier to find defensive coordinators than it is to find offensive coordinators who can work in lockstep with the QB. If your coach is the mind behind the offense, it pretty much stays with you as long as the coach stays. O coordinators get hired away, usually meaning big changes on offense, though that hasn't hampered New England the last 15 years or so.

I too have wondered about making Freddy the head coach. That would keep him here and I am sure he would keep Williams as DC. Maybe promote Williams to asst head coach or whatever you want to call it. Give him a bump in pay and say job well done. Maybe let his son do more on D and let Greg take over special teams. I am sure he can fire them up. Plus, to me special teams is more a defensive position group anyway.

Thanks for the well thought out post. I understand the position fully and why I am not going to be all that bummed if Williams isn't hired. I might moan for a while, but mostly because I like what I am seeing and tend to be one who doesn't want to upset the apple cart. There is something good going on, but again, it might not be the "best" hire.

On to another thought. Say we hire someone else. If they are hired and keep Kitchens and Williams, all we are hiring is a leader. Don't we already have those?

My feeling is if we hire someone new, both Williams and Kitchens are out. Why would a new coach want to keep the same staff...a same staff that found good results once Hue was fired.

Some people think that firing Hue was unfair. If that is or was unfair, how do you classify the terminations of Williams and Kitchens as anything other than really, really unfair? It's almost sickening to think about.

If we win out, or 1-1, our last two games, "unfair" would be an understatement. Boneheaded would be more appropriate...

Williams and Kitchens are earning the right to be seriously considered for the positions. We're just fans that see only what's on the surface. Dorsey has the entire picture from which to work. I'm going to trust that Dorsey is going to do what's best for the Browns moving forward. Go Browns!

There not being terminated ...mu want to “glorify” them not being given the perm job ...

When they got the gig ... it was for a pre- determined amount of time ... the termination date was all ready known ...

I’ll have no problem keeping them on ... none ... I WILL ACTUALLY BE IRRATED IF WE LET FREDDIE GO ... oooops .... sorry bout that ...

No one has any clue what King John will do and we have NO CLUE if the THIEF’S gonna muck this one up too ...

Appreciate the feedback.

If Kitchens is granted an opportunity to interview for the head job, then the vision for his staff would be a central conversation as well. Considering his preparedness for a midseason promotion to offensive coordinator of a young team, I’d imagine he could deliver a thorough list of possible assistants to Dorsey when the time comes. It’s more speculation on my part, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a lot of respect for Williams. As far as I understand it, Williams has given him significant autonomy over the offensive side of the ball. Obviously, Williams would have to accept being passed over, and saying you’re fine with a decision is different than being fine with it. And I wouldn’t begrudge him if he wasn’t. Because, on a human level, it would be disappointing for him to exceed expectations and then denied the chance to finish the job.

I wonder if Gregg would be more accepting of the arrangement if Blake Williams was given the defensive coordinator job. I believe Gregg’s mentioned wanting to see his son as a head coach and, if serving as assistant head coach and special teams coordinator, he would have the opportunity to put his fingerprints on the team. Its feasibility would depend on the personal dynamics of the situation, though.

If not, Kitchens would have some interesting options to lead the defense. He spent time with Todd Bowles in both Dallas and Arizona and he comes from a similar mode of thought as Jim Schwartz, whose contract expires in Philadelphia at the end of the year.

But all of that assumes Kitchens even gets an interview.

And I agree that hiring a more administrative coach – someone like John Harbaugh or Dave Toub, for example – seems unnecessary considering Williams already commands the respect of the team and demonstrates a willingness to delegate.

I think Bruce Arians and Lincoln Riley are the only outside candidates that would consider retaining coaches already inside the organization. Arians understands he’s a short-term hire and needs something more to sell to Dorsey. And Riley likely lacks the NFL connections to assemble his own staff. I’m sure he’s acquainted with some NFL assistants who have passed through Norman, and he’s got some ties through his confidant Ruffin McNeil (like Chuck Pagano), but I don’t know if he knows enough pro personnel to immediately hire dozens of qualified people. If he truly wants the job, I suspect he’ll bring a few members of his inner circle and then lean on people inside the building.

97% is definitely high now that you mention that. As you lower that figure, the 'kick FG' option looks proportionally worse.

Sorry my man. If we hire a new coach and one or both of Williams and Kitchens are not retained, they will have been terminated. You want to call it let go or not retained, we can do that if it sounds better.

All those things can also be said for if you go for it and don't convert. They'd still have to drive 50 yards just to get a 57 yard attempt-- unlikely even in Denver. 60 yard drive to get a 47 yard attempt.

Meanwhile, you kick a FG and then you have to kick off.. we're still putting the game in the hands of our defense, and special teams for that matter. What's the average starting position for a team on a kickoff, the 28 yard line? That's the number I have in my head for historical NFL data, it may even be farther now that touchbacks are put at the 25 yard line. So maybe they need to go 70-75 yards for a touchdown but there's high volatility there (not good for Browns) because you risk a long return.

And you're still not really accounting for how most of the time, Chubb picks up the first down right there and the game is over (unless the Browns somehow messed up kneeling the ball. Not even the Browns could do that...)

Being a football lifer works against you in this matter, because coaches have been historically inept in 4th down situations. It may even be getting worse, because as offenses get better, possessions matter (even) more and field position less. On the flip side coaches have also been getting a little more aggressive, so on balance it's hard to say if they're getting better or worse.

Just take it as a rule to always go for it on 4th and 1 and you'll rarely be wrong. The situations where it's wrong would be like when converting doesn't lead to much of anything positive (maybe because it's end of the half/game and you realistically won't score) but missing the conversion hurts because the other team can kick a FG or try a throw into the end zone.

Hue is gone; Haley as well.

I want to see more of this roster and staff, with improvement in ST's if Dorsey wants it. Any other changes to HC or OC would be change for the sake of change, the knee-jerk assumption that newer is automatically and inherently superior. Maybe it is, or no. But the current Chemistry works. Would you dismiss this group, can them, send them packing on their way for their performance today? Why, no, certainly not! We are winning.

Then why replace them? I see it with Hue and Haley. Not with these two. And we haven't had much chance to adjust and grow this chemistry. I would need some real deficiency proof.

Just win, baby!

Uh huh ... being a football lifer has to work against me cause i must be incapable of grasping new ideas and concepts ... gotcha ...

Either that or my EXPERIENCE the things i’ve Learned from being a football lifer tell me that in THAT SITUATION IT WAS MORONIC ....

But hey ... if u young whipper snappers wanna write me off as some old relic that needs dusting off every few years .... who is this fossil to argue with that ... ...

Nice posts.

I wouldn't really be comfortable with Kitchens as head coach. He's done a great job with the offense and I like what I see there, but there's an awful lot of projecting going on there for the head gig. I don't think that's a serious consideration anyway.

As far as Williams vs some other coach, and how their coaching staffs shake out: that is really, really hard to get a handle on as a fan. We aren't in the interviews and we generally don't know their plans for the coaching staff and team.

It's a hard decision. Williams has done a very good job so far, and maybe it would be silly to change things now. However, you have to also be able to look past a half season's worth of games and project what's best for the team in the long run. That's not an easy thing to do.

It works against you because your reference point is that on 4th downs you're supposed to kick (punt or FG), unless it's an emergency situation or where it's incredibly obvious that you have to go for it. That's how it's always been done, and that's basically how all the head coaches at even the highest levels of the game approach it, so it must be right.

There's one problem with this, and it's a big one. It's not right! It's a stupid approach to the problem, and it's probably getting worse because as noted above: offenses are getting better so possessions (which have never been valued enough) are getting even more valuable.

There are a lot of possible explanations and surely many contribute. A big one is that coaches are just risk-averse; they don't want to take the blame for when they miss a 4th down attempt and lose a game as a result (see this situation, where Williams missed a 4th down but won the game, and is still being widely criticized.)

See Dirk Koetter's comments from the offseason -- he knows it's better to go for it more often, but doesn't want to lose his job. That's the gist of it, at least for him.

I think the root cause is more along the lines of, coaches just don't know how to approach the situation. These are really game theory problems much moreso than football situations. Coaches know blocking and tackling, Xs and Os, how to lead men. They have no idea how to figure out these nerdy game theory (math) problems, and it shows on the field every Sunday.

The drunk guy in the stands has a better feeling for these situations. I'm being dead serious.

If you want to grasp new concepts, then this would be a good start.

On one side you have probably every game model and statistical analysis ever done on the subject. For 4th downs, 2 point conversions, and similar game situations, I'm a strong believer in these.

On the other side, you have every NFL head coach and major college coach that I know of, the football establishment if you will.

I look at this and think history will consider the latter group to be idiots. It's an embarrassment to the league that they haven't figured this stuff out yet and implemented it. It makes me wonder how much else they get wrong.

That's my opinion on the matter. You can decide for yourself though. I will even give you a full refund if I turn out to be wrong.