DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Tailgate Forum 2007 MLB Awards Predictions

CBS.Sportsline.com Predictions

Sep. 26, 2007
By Scott Miller
CBSSports.com Senior Writer

Ahem, 2007?

A complete, colossal, collaborative stress test.

Mike Hargrove resigned as Seattle's manager because the job was grinding him up and sapping his passion.

Terry Ryan resigned as Minnesota's general manager because the losses had become more painful and the victories weren't as enjoyable.

Buddy Bell resigned as Kansas City's manager just as the Royals were showing signs of life again because, as he said, managing was no longer compatible with his family.

Milwaukee was in the playoff race into the season's last week for just the second time in 25 years, yet manager Ned Yost has been grilled on the radio and blogosphere more than a burned bratwurst.

The White Sox's expectations tumbled harder than those of just about any other club, and by Labor Day, skipper Ozzie Guillen was threatening to play an entire roster of Double-A players in September. Texas players nearly (and immaturely) mutinied against first-year skipper Ron Washington and among the things the Rangers had to do to quell that was deal away slugger Mark Teixeira.

And don't even talk about St. Louis, where the season started with manager Tony La Russa's arrest for driving while under the influence of alcohol in spring training and pretty much ended when Human Growth Hormone allegations found Rick Ankiel.

Four April snow outs in Cleveland taxed everyone from the Indians' grounds crew to Seattle superstar Ichiro Suzuki, who, commenting on all of the makeup trips to Jacobs Field that caused, said, "If I ever saw myself saying I'm excited going to Cleveland, I'd punch myself in the face, because I'm lying."

Which, of course, brings us to this year's awards -- along with some assorted other stuff. What's important to remember is, if you've got any beefs, please register them via your friendly e-mail carrier. I know these are very stressful times, but there will be no punching anybody in the face. ...

AL MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
3. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels

Only question left is, where will A-Rod's coronation be held? Yankee Stadium during the World Series? Central Park? His favorite strip joint? It isn't often you can say this but -- no disrespect to Ordonez's sensational season -- A-Rod has lapped the field of MVP candidates this year. That's lapped, not lap-danced.

Only debate here is who finishes second and third. Ordonez is on target to win a batting title and finish second in RBI. And while Boston's David Ortiz should be included in the MVP runner-up conversation as well, Guerrero is the halo atop the Big A in "Angels." Remove him from the lineup, and the Angels are just the Arizona Diamondbacks in better unis.

NL MVP
1. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
2. Matt Holliday, Rockies
3. Prince Fielder, Brewers

You can handicap this race in any number of ways. One legitimate way would be to place Holliday atop the pack because he is having a sensational all-around season for the Rockies. As of midweek, the guy ranked second in the NL in batting average, first in RBI, fourth in homers, second in slugging percentage and first in total bases.

Another legitimate way would be to place Fielder atop the pack, because you remove his 50 homers and .625 slugging percentage (first in the NL), the Brewers aren't anywhere close to having their first- or second-best season in 25 years.

But the award goes to Rollins, the Philadelphia magician who has impacted so many games in so many different ways this season that you'd think he carried a wand instead of a bat and glove. Rollins at midweek led the NL in runs, with 20 more than Holliday and 26 more than Fielder. He plays a key position and is one of the most instrumental team leaders in the game. He said this spring that the Phillies were the team to beat in the NL East and, while these last few days will tell, he personally has done everything possible to make his forecast prophetic.

Honorable mention in this discussion goes to the Mets' David Wright.

AL Cy Young
1. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
2. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
3. Fausto Carmona, Indians

Look, it's a Cleveland sandwich. Many folks will argue that Beckett should be the Cy winner because of his 20 victories and a 3.14 ERA that ranks fourth in the league. Others will say Carmona is the guy because he leads the league with a 3.03 ERA and, if that holds, will become the youngest player since the Yankees' Dave Righetti in 1981 to lead a league in ERA.

While each of those arguments has merit, here's why they're wrong: Sabathia leads the league with 234 innings pitched, he's picked up the Indians time after time and hasn't complained a whit about stretches in which it was more likely that he and Drew Carey would kiss on the Jacobs Field mound than it was the Indians would score for him. He's 18-7. In six of his seven losses Cleveland scored two or fewer runs. Twice, he's lost 1-0 decisions.

Not only that, Sabathia defeated reigning Cy Young winner Johan Santana of Minnesota three times this summer and beat Detroit's Justin Verlander twice.

In the Gotta Also Like Dept., Toronto's Doc Halladay gets kudos for seven complete games, and Los Angeles' John Lackey and Baltimore's Erik Bedard are in the Cy Young conversation as well.

NL Cy Young
1. Jake Peavy, Padres
2. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
3. Aaron Harang, Cincinnati

This here is a no-brainer. Heading into what probably was his final 2007 start in San Francisco on Wednesday (though the Padres plan to bring him back on short rest Sunday in Milwaukee if a playoff slot is on the line), Peavy likely will win the NL's Triple Crown of pitching -- and not only does he lead the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts, he ranks second in lowest opponents' batting average (.202) and fifth in innings pitched.

Webb, last year's winner, had another outstanding season that included 42 consecutive scoreless innings pitched, and probably an NL West division title for Arizona.

The third choice might be a bit of a surprise, but check it out: Harang is one of the game's most underappreciated workhorses. At midweek, he ranked second in the NL in innings pitched (behind Webb) and second in strikeouts (behind Peavy). His 16 wins are tied for fifth in the league and though his 3.70 ERA might rank just outside of the top 10 (he's 12th), take him out of Cincinnati's hitter-friendly ballpark and place him in a fair yard and he'd climb the charts faster than High School Musical 2.

AL Rookie of the Year
1. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
2. Delmon Young, Devil Rays
3. Brian Bannister, Royals

Pedroia has flourished in unforgiving Red Sox Nation to the point where he's 11th in the AL in hitting and ranks second in the league among those hardest to fan. He's been instrumental in the success of a Boston team headed for another October not only at the plate, but by playing a key position in the infield.

Young is on pace for 190 hits, 38 doubles and 90 RBI, benchmarks reached by only six AL rookies -- including Boston's Nomar Garciaparra, Minnesota's Tony Oliva, Cleveland's Hal Trosky and the Yankees' Joe DiMaggio.

Bannister's 3.87 ERA is better than Daisuke Matsuzaka's 4.48. The opponents' batting average is close (.249 for Bannister, .247 for Matsuzaka) and Bannister has only two fewer wins while playing for a significantly weaker team.

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
2. Ryan Braun, Brewers
3. Hunter Pence, Astros

For most of the past three months, I've been thinking Braun. But for much of the past three weeks, I've changed that to Tulowitzki.

One reason Colorado is staging this late-season surge is because the Rockies not only are the best-hitting NL lineup, they are the best NL fielding team. Manager Cling Hurdle says that the fielding really solidified in early May when Tulowitzki shook off his early season jitters, settled in and took control. The guy is a force both offensively -- he can hit for average and for power -- and with the glove. He's one reason why this Rockies team scares the wits out of the rest of the NL West for next year and beyond.

The Brewers wouldn't be where they are without Braun, but his defense has hurt them at times. Pence's season was interrupted by injury, but his .323 batting average, 16 homers, 65 RBI and 11 thefts was impressive while it lasted. The temptation was to rank Arizona's Chris Young in the top three but, while he's had a sensational season (32 homers) his 67 RBI are only two more than Pence's 65 and it's very difficult to overlook the fact that he's hitting just .239.

AL Manager of the Year
1. Mike Scioscia, Angels
2. Joe Torre, Yankees
3. Eric Wedge, Indians

There is no finer manager today than Scioscia, whose imprint is all over this Angels' full-court-press of a team. They've won three division titles in the past four seasons, played in the playoffs in four of the past six years and this might have been Scioscia's finest managing job yet: The Angels this season have used the disabled list 19 times for 13 players, causing Scioscia to use 127 different lineups.

In the past, I've generally slighted Torre's excellent work because he's loaded with talent. Not this year, after he guided a flawed team back from the Third Ring of Yankee Hell. All you Yankees fans who wanted him fired after last October's debacle in Detroit, what do you think now? These Yankees were dead in May, now they're full of life.

And Wedge? He's been blessed this year by Sabathia and Carmona -- and by a team and coaching staff who have responded to him.

NL Manager of the Year
1. Charlie Manuel, Phillies
2. Bob Melvin, Arizona
3. Lou Piniella, Cubs

He's quirky, old-school and not exactly cut from today's corporate manager cloth, but Manuel has extracted maximum results out of a Phillies' team that limped out of the gate to its usual slow start. Take a look at their pitching and then tell me that the Phillies should be within breathing space of the Mets with just a few games left. Go on, tell me.

Melvin has done wonders keeping the Diamondbacks away from the old Pythagorean Theory Trap. Yes, we know the Diamondbacks shouldn't be anywhere near first place based on ol' Pythagoras (opponents have outscored them by 15 runs this season). Deal with it. The beauty of the game is that sometimes the numbers take a beating.

Meanwhile, just when Piniella was beginning to look like Dusty Baker in late April, the Cubs made the sharpest U-turn since Burt Reynolds in Smokey and the Bandit. When the situation called for patience, he had it. When it called for publicly calling out underperforming players, despite conventional wisdom that today's guys are too sensitive for it, he did it anyway -- and with terrific results. And don't think it wasn't a coincidence that the Cubs season turned around with the Carlos Zambrano-Michael Barrett dugout fight -- and with Piniella's ejection the following day. He showed spunk and his team took his cue.

AL Comeback Player of the Year
1. Carlos Pena, Devil Rays
2. Jon Lester, Red Sox
3. Carmona, Indians

All these years later, Pena suddenly grew into his shoes. Lester came all the way back from non-Hodgkins lymphoma, while Carmona picked up the pieces from a miserable audition as closer last summer and may win himself an ERA title.

NL Comeback Player of the Year
1. Josh Hamilton, Reds
2. Dmitri Young, Nationals
3. Ankiel, Cardinals

Hamilton finally tapped into his incredible talent after sabotaging his past three years with drug and alcohol abuse, and here's hoping he stays clean and sober because he can be an inspiration to so many. The standing ovation he received on opening day in Cincinnati was one of the year's highlights. What a season for Young, who essentially was kicked off the team in Detroit last year. And Ankiel's story was terrific until the HGH shadows obscured it toward the end -- an end that has yet to be written.

AL Executive of the Year
1. Mark Shapiro, Indians
2. Bill Stoneman, Angels
3. Brian Cashman, Yankees

Shapiro completely rebuilt the Indians beginning in 2002, and Cleveland rocks again. Stoneman, for all the grief he's received over the past few seasons about failing to land another big bat in the lineup, racks up another division title to calm the hysteria. And Cashman's transformation of the Yankees into a team that eventually will be centered on young pitching should make the rest of the AL very nervous.

NL Executive of the Year
1. Doug Melvin, Brewers
2. Kevin Towers, Padres
3. Jim Hendry, Cubs

Milwaukee, playing meaningful games in September? Take a bow, Mr. Melvin. In San Diego, Towers had another stellar season on a smaller budget than he should have, but that's his lot in life with Padres owner John Moores doubling as one of commissioner Bud Selig's lieutenants. And Hendry, the guy agreed to terms with Ted Lilly during the winter meetings last year when he was hooked up to an EKG machine while having a heart attack. Talk about going above and beyond.


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Always nice to see some names from Cleveland in these discussions. I really don't care about winning them. Why? These are regular season awards....I want to win postseason awards. World Series title and World Series MVP, that's want I want to see in Cleveland.

It would be nice to see Harang win the NL Cy Young, but that's not going to happen.

Sabathia should win for the reasons stated above. No doubt in my mind.

As much as Fausto deserves it too, Sabathia just earned it more than him.

JMHO.

Yeah, you know so much about baseball. Remember smacking people for saying Harang was a good pitcher?

Not to disparage what any of the NL and AL MVP candidates did... but can you win that award any more without hitting at least 30 home runs?

The only one I care about here is the Comeback Player for the AL. I would love to see Jon Lester get that.

I see Scott and I are on the same line re American Cy Young - C.C. Sabathia and American Exec of Year - Mark Shapiro. I agree that Mike Scioscia, Angels is a good manager and Torre, well how can you lose with a team Steinbummer buys year in and year out, plus the good the young talent they've squirreled away in the boondocks, that just happen to come out in late September.

No, my pick is Wedge, he works for a tightwad albeit he has a great GM in Shapiro but, Wedge despite his youth has got a bunch of over achievers believing in themselves and has made some good moves with pitching rotation and a few positional changes to improve the team. I've followed his managing since he was with the Buffalo Bisons and you could just see the guy is a winner. He's very unassuming, and just lets the guys go out and play their best.

In all probability, yes, re voting and Cleveland always seems to be be overlooked when there is a close contest.....the voting will be Scioscia, Torre and Wedge.

I'd still take Harang over Laffey, Westbrook, Byrd or Carmona any day of the season.

No way I do that for Carmona. I know he's a good pitcher, but he has an ERA that is 0.64 runs higher (in the National League) and is five years older than Carmona. Why any Indians fan would do that trade would be beyond me....

i'd take carmona over harang 100 times out of 100

with that stuff? that movement?

the guy has shut down both the red sox and the yankees this year... that 1-0 gem against the red sox... yeld the yankees to just 2 runs in a loss...

those are big time offenses, better than anything harang has dealt with in the NL

carmona is legit, this season isn't a fluke, carmona has the chance to become a big time pitcher...

Carmona is having a better year and is 5 years younger. On top of that, your claim of Harang being more consistently good is incorrect. Well, actually you talked about consistency, not consistently good. Harang has had an ERA the past three years that has gone 3.70 to 3.83 in the NL. Most projections add 0.50 to an ERA in a transition to the AL, meaning his AL ERA would be, at best, 4.20 ERA. Putting that into perspective, that would be a little better than Jake Westbrook. Ironically, if you look at his Baseball Refence page and scroll down to his most comparable players, Jake Westbrook is #8 over their respective careers and #9 through age 28. If the Indians would call and offer Carmona for Harang, the Reds would take that deal so quickly it isn't funny. The commissioner's office would be on the phone before Shapiro could finish the offer.

Aaron Harang is a very good pitcher. However, he isn't nearly as good as Carmona has been this year, and he is at his peak ages right now, while Carmona still has a few years until his peak years. Not a chance in h-e-double-hockey-sticks that any team in baseball would take Harang right now over Carmona.