DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Football guys did half the job, now it's up to numbers boys to finish the job...

I'm not into Harry Potter but I think I get this reference.

Every coaching change brings new coaches and a new system. I don't anticipate a tremendous amount of turnover in the players.

I'm tired of this notion that it takes YEARS to see improvement in your record with a new coach.. it's BS. New coaches take over teams with mediocre to poor records all the time in the NFL and significantly increase the win total.

If we don't have that expectation, I would have suggested we just keep Freddie.

SF 2018 - 4-12 - 2019 - 13-3 Super Bowl

MKC has ties to the Browns I would say.


I mean, Depodesta was here last year (as was Berry) when we had Stefanski as a finalist with Freddie for HC. Depodesta was also here when we hired Berry the first time and apparently worked fine together.

Why is it unreasonable to believe that Stefanski and Berry were our first choices, unless of course the narrative doesn't follow what you want to believe... hmmm...

How about the Rams, 4-12 with Jeff Fisher/interim HC... following year hire the young Sean McVay, go 11-5, make the playoffs and the super bowl the season after that...

SF-2018 2 QB's injured hence the poor record.
Plus no coaching changes from 18 to 19.Find another example.
I say again,new coaches,new schemes,new players = 6-10

Good coaches are the ones that can take what they have and make it work. The bad ones are the ones that need to implement a system they are familiar with and then go out and replace the current roster with guys that can run what they want to run.

Use the Force Luke

Is Luke one of Harry's friends?

His BFF.

That is very true.
So tell me again why we are going to a WCO zone blocking scheme?

Because our offensive line was not great last year and we are probably only to have 2/5 of the same starters and the zone blocking scheme probably fits our personnel better.

Did he lay an egg or blow out an ACL?

He keeps getting chances because he had talent.

His QBs in Buffalo weren't any better than the ones he had here.

Doctson was my guy that draft instead of Coleman. They both had talent, though. Coleman's was less refined, but he had crazy production anyways in college.

Unfortunately, our coaches/talent refiners left something to be desired. Or, they weren't the right fit with CoCo at least. Old school coaches and new age players don't always mix. The NFL as a whole struggles with them at times.

No.
Excl said good coaches adapt their scheme to fit personnel.
Since KS has every intention to run his scheme,regardless of personnel,that tells me he doesn't think KS is a good coach.
We are right back at zero again.Get players to fit the new scheme,jettison the players that are here.
Any one that thinks we are magically going to be this great running team,needs to rethink.Transitioning to a zone scheme takes time,alot of time.

It's unreasonable to claim that as anything other than conjecture. And now we have two thirds of the group that helped assemble the talent that led us to 1-31. If that was "the plan"....

Well it is Haslam so maybe you're right.

Everyone is assuming we'll run "Stefanski's" scheme. We have no idea what it looks like or will actually entail. I'm not sure that Stefanski knows yet. He's "working through everything" still. Callahan will probably have input on the blocking. He's done several different blocking schemes over his career.

We're looking at a couple new OTs regardless of scheme. It'd be "new" to them regardless.

I hear you, and I agree on many points.

I also think its funny how we as fans are twisting everything as its positive. I swear its like the team can do no wrong by some.

Pre hire:

"we need a HC with EXPERIENCE! We need someone that can lead this team and kick these kids with attitudes in the butt"

Post Hire:

"Man, what a great hire to get the guy who has only been a OC for a year and half. We are finally ahead of the trend getting one of the great young Ocs, we didn't really want the guy with 6 rings and that the players felt was the best choice."

yeah but Stefanski only interviewed with the Browns, and didn't really have interest from many else - I wonder why that is?

"well, hes smart"


Pre Hire:

"Now that we got Stefanksi, lets get a GM that can build and mold him a team and work with him that has experience in running a team. Paton is the best hire we can make for this franchise!"

Paton pulls out of the job, and all you hear is "well, he wasn't the guy we REALLY wanted to hire anyway, it was Berry all along. We need someone like Berry that speaks Stefanski's language".

Cool. We have a historically poorly run franchise being led by a green 32 year old GM, with little experience - who is working with a Rookie HC with little experience that are in charge of setting up a culture for 25 year old prima donnas that need discipline and leadership as the 1 thing THEY THEMSELVES pointed out needing.

I couldn't tell you if it was conjecture. Her information has been pretty spot on the past month. I'm trusting it.

J/C

I am curious, for those saying that Berry was the guy alllll along, and we didn't really want Paton - why did it take so long to hire him?

Why wait what 27 days to hire the GM? Why not just hire him when we hired Stefanski? I mean, he WAS THE GUY right?

How would we know if we wanted Paton without the interviews? I think Berry led the pack all along, doesn't mean you don't do your due diligence though, right?

Let the process play out and make an informed decision. Don't rush to judgment.

Trust the process!

Which is worrisome to me.

We hired the guy for what he was doing in MInn, why would we want him to change what he was doing now that hes here.

Seems EXACLTY like what happened with Freddie. We hired based on what he was doing the year before, gets the job and then changes EVERYTHING

Interesting article on SI...

https://www.si.com/nfl/browns/browns-mav...gm-andrew-berry

Misconceptions About New Browns General Manager Andrew Berry

Pete Smith
7 hours ago

When the prospect of hiring Andrew Berry to be the general manager of the Cleveland Browns was introduced, it immediately renewed old arguments about the use of analytics and how the Browns employed them when Sashi Brown was the Executive Vice President of the team. The resulting rift which pit people who wanted to embrace data against those who wanted so-called "football guys" to make the decisions was the same one that was created in Berea when team owner Jimmy Haslam insisted on hiring Hue Jackson to be the head coach.

Now that Berry has taken the job to be the team's general manager, any number of misconceptions about his ability to judge talent or manage a team have come up due to the teams that went 1-31 in 2016 and 2017 as well as decisions in free agency and the NFL Draft are concerned.

When Sashi Brown hired Berry from the Indianapolis Colts, Berry had been involved in scouting for seven seasons. Brown was, after all, a lawyer and he needed someone to do the heavy lifting when it came to talent evaluation. Along the way, Berry was exposed to some of the creative ideas Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta and Brown were utilizing to manage the salary cap and create additional assets in the draft with trades. After three years in Cleveland, two with Brown and one with John Dorsey, Berry took an opportunity to work with the Philadelphia Eagles under their general manager, Howie Roseman, giving him more exposure to the business side of the organization.

Just 32 years old, Berry has been directly involved in scouting for seven of them, then four between the Browns and Eagles in the scouting process as well as being exposed to more of the business side including contract negotiations and salary cap management. He's also coming at this with an economics degree from Harvard, trained to think and approach things from a different perspective as well as a master's in computer science, which may not have a specific use in this role, but is impressive nonetheless. Berry is really smart. That's a good thing. That's in addition to playing four years a a corner for the Crimson and getting a look as an undrafted free agent from the Washington Redskins.

Despite how much worked out in the strangest of ways by going 1-31, enabling the Browns to select their franchise quarterback instead of having to trade picks to move up to get them, which was their plan all along and why they stockpiled so many, so much of what led to 1-31 wasn't because of analytics and their use. It was caused by a terrible marriage forced onto them by ownership and the battle that waged on for those two seasons that carried over into the past two seasons.

When the Browns hired Hue Jackson, they hired a paranoid, insecure head coach who thought he had all the answers and fought them every step of the way in what they were trying to accomplish, believing that would help his standing within the organization. That led to the trades down the draft order that so many assume is just how analytics work, but also forced them to compromise on so many picks, so Hue could feel like a big man.

So while many people assume every decision the team made during that time was rooted in analytics and therefore analytics failed, that couldn't be further from the truth. Instead, the Browns ended up with this mutant organization with parts based in data, parts rooted in stubborn, outdated thinking and arrogance with a good amount of scar tissue as a result of the clashing of those two thought processes.

From the 2016 NFL Draft, Corey Coleman, Emmanuel Ogbah, Carl Nassib, Cody Kessler Joe Schobert, Ricardo Louis, Derrick Kindred, Seth DeValve, Rashard Higgins, Jordan Payton and Trey Caldwell were all well rooted in data.

Coleman had immense talent, but the Browns failed to vet him well enough as a person, which is what caused him to fail. Ogbah has had injuries derail some impressive seasons between 2017 with the Browns and 2019 as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. Nassib is a rotational piece on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that would've been far better than what the Browns were left with this past season. Kessler was overdrafted by about three rounds, but still continues to find spots on rosters as a backup quarterback.

Joe Schobert has made a Pro Bowl and as he heads to free agency, was one of the most important pieces on the team's defense the last few years. Louis was a shot that didn't work in part because he never developed consistency as well as horrific injuries, including his neck and an ACL. Higgins had a big impact in 2018, but for reasons that still aren't exactly clear, disappeared in 2019 after an injury, seemingly finding himself in the dog house of Freddie Kitchens.

Payton had a tremendous profile and simply didn't work. Caldwell was drafted to a team with a ton of corners and couldn't do enough to earn a spot among them. Kindred is still floating around the league and DeValve flashed big time talent, but couldn't stay healthy. He's now a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Shon Coleman, Spencer Drango and Scooby Wright were not backed by data. Coleman turned 25 in his rookie year and had no athletic data due to a MCL injury.Age is important in projecting outcomes from the NFL Draft. Oddly enough, he was the swing tackle for the San Francisco 49ers before a knee injury before the season started took him out for the year. Spencer Drango's athleticism was abysmal. Even his build was peculiar. Wright's production was outstanding, but he couldn't move and couldn't contribute on special teams as a result, so he had to start or he was dead weight. Wright proved to be dead weight.

In addition to the players they selected, this draft also netted the Browns additional draft assets for the future. 2017 was subjected to more compromise than 2016, which proved incredibly frustrating and hurt them in the draft process.

The 2017 NFL Draft started with Myles Garrett, who is one of the best defensive players in the league. His data was ridiculous. After trading down from 12th pick when they didn't get Patrick Mahomes and Hue didn't want Deshaun Watson, preferring Malik Hooker, the Browns added a first round pick for 2018 and then picked Jabrill Peppers.

Peppers had a solid draft profile from a data perspective, but Gregg Williams pounded the table for him. After struggling for the first half of his rookie year, he started getting better despite playing at free safety, which is completely different from anything he'd ever done. He played very well in his second season at strong safety and was part of the deal to acquire Odell Beckham from the New York Giants.

The Browns traded up, moving in front of the Pittsburgh Steelers to get David Njoku, who is another player that really did well with data, particularly because he was so young. Njoku had a good second year and his third season was derailed by an injury. Still, he only turns 24 years old this coming season and he can be a very productive player.

DeShone Kizer represents the official divorce of Hue Jackson from the analytics side of the organization. Not only was Kizer's data profile abominable and his chances of being successful almost zero, Jackson chose to ignore the rest of the front office, doing his own scouting on Kizer, believing himself to be a quarterback whisperer.

Even when people working with Kizer in his draft prep tried to call Jackson to give them some insight, Jackson refused to speak with them. That continued when Jackson ignored the front office's desire as well as his own quarterback coach, who Jackson would later fire, to let Kizer sit and develop. That arrogance killed whatever chance, however small, Kizer had to succeed in the NFL and why Jackson shouldn't be allowed anywhere near kids in a coaching capacity.

Larry Ogunjobi was another dynamo when it came to data, putting together an excellent profile. His rookie year has been his best to this point, but there's still a ton of ability with him and he can be a good player. He makes his share of splash plays, but he needs to be more consistent, particularly against the run.

Howard Wilson's draft profile with data was fine, but not for what the Browns intended him to do. He was built to be a nickel corner and they were hoping he could play the boundary. Sadly for Wilson, he never got to put on a Browns uniform in even a preseason game as injuries to his knees killed his career before it started.

Rod Johnson was awful when it came to data and his tape was even worse. Everything about this pick had disaster written all over it. Caleb Brantley was a similar deal in that he didn't produce, wasn't athletic with the added bonus of being lazy.

Their best pick from day three of that draft was Zane Gonzalez, who made the Pro Bowl this year as a member of the Arizona Cardinals. Matthew Dayes had great production, but his athleticism wasn't great. Still, for where they picked him, he was a solid selection and was okay in his time as a Brown.

Out of the 24 selections made in two drafts, at least six of them or 25 percent completely ignored any concept of analytics or data. And of those six, exactly none of them panned out for the Browns, so they were effectively wasted in the name of compromise. Shon Coleman has a chance to improve that record to one.

Of the 18 selections rooted in data, three of them have made the Pro Bowl (Garrett, Schobert, Gonzalez), one was a massive bust (Corey Coleman), three are contributing for other teams (Nassib, Ogbah, Peppers), three are or have contributed on the Browns roster (Njoku, Ogunjobi, Higgins) and the remaining eight are either at the bottom of a roster, a free agent or out of the league entirely (Kessler, Kindred, Louis, Payton, DeValve, Caldwell, Wilson, Dayes).

In all, the Browns whiffed on nine of the 18 picks they made rooted in data while selecting nine players that contributed to the Browns or another team in the 2019 season. For all of the hand wringing over how badly analytics performed, the Browns were able to pick nine contributors out of 18 picks with three Pro Bowlers. Had they not been forced to throw away picks to pay the Hue tax, the Browns would've had another second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh round pick; effectively an extra draft.

Keep in mind, while they were hamstrung by Jackson, they were still able to acquire the first, two extra seconds, a third, and fourth round picks that would be utilized by Dorsey, mostly poorly, in 2018.

This is why alignment is so critical. With Berry and Stefanski seemingly operating in tandem, that is one of the areas that should be vastly improved. They both believe in embracing data, understanding that knowledge is power, so even if they won't be perfect in the upcoming NFL Draft, they should at least be able to use 100 percent of their picks as opposed to 75 on players with good data profiles, reducing their chances of blowing picks. If they can carry over that 50 percent hit rate on contributors as well as a 16.6 percent rate of hitting a Pro Bowl player or improve upon them, the Browns will be in good shape going forward, potentially able to make up some of the ground lost under Dorsey's leadership.

One of the potential benefits as well as the risks with Berry and Stefanski is the fact they are young. It could result in some missteps, but it also means they aren't fully formed and still have room to grow, improving in their roles. That has the potential to give the Browns one of the better football organizations in the league as well as putting them on the cutting edge, which they briefly flirted with in making the Brock Osweiler trade.

Nothing guarantees this setup will work, but just eliminating the rift and working as part of an organization that is all headed in the same direction provides more opportunities to make smart decisions, which is already a significant improvement. Energy that isn't spent fighting another camp can instead be spent looking for additional avenues for the team to get better. Iron sharpens iron, so to speak. Morale should be higher within the building as well, which along with a unified message, would hopefully proliferate into the locker room, improving the energy around the organization as a whole.

The Browns are finally doing what almost every other organization in the NFL is already doing and the fact it took this long is what should frustrate people the most. People may read this and still hate the hire of Andrew Berry, but they should at least acknowledge that the organization that was put together for 2016 and 2017 was not an accurate representation of an organization thoroughly invested in analytics.

I just saw an episode of Parks and Recreation with a similar quote:

Ron Swanson: "Is Star Wars the one with the little wizard boy?"

Hue was a crappy coach but who comes up with this kind of BS?

Maybe i missed it, but there isn't a single source listed in this article, sounds like this all this writers OPINION of what happened to me. Its also a slanted opinion, and you can tell by how he describes the "football guys":



Why add the "stubborn, outdated thinking and arrogance" part? Hes obviously showing a slanted view - NEITHER way of thinking worked - yet that way was the "stubborn outdated way" and the data was the other way.

So, the browns not vetting him failed? Not the data that chose him? That makes 0 sense whatsoever. Sounds like an excuse for an immensely bad pick. what you saying is that DATA cannot quantify the will and drive of a person, or the desire to win.....which is exactly why you shouldn't be picking a guy with the majority of your decision relying on data.

Data is information, it is a tool to a means. Its not supposed to be used as the end all be all quantifier. It simply just cannot take into effect the HUMAN element.

I also find it funny they use Myles as a data pick - Myles was a FOOTBALL guy pick, data pick, and pizza delivery boy pick lol.

Its funny though he paints every DECENT pick as a data pick and all the bad picks as the "stubborn outdated picks" Sorry bub, it don't work that way. Its not like Jimmy said, Hey Paul you get this pick, hue you get this pick, paul this pick is yours and Hue this is yours". lol. GOH with that.

And I truly hate to have to stick up for Hue, but this is just plain false:

It was WIDELY reported that that Hue CALLED Watson to tell him we were picking him, and then the Data guys traded the down. Name me ONE HC that wouldn't want a QB picked there in our situation? I despise Hue Jackson as a HC, but we cant rewrite history - this is a lie. He freaking wanted to trade 2 1st for AJ McCarron he wanted a QB so badly and this schmuck is going to write that he wanted to pass on all the QBs? No, that was the data dept.

I think this has been addressed and one reason Stefanski was hired in part because he's not one to force his offense, his scheme, or what not on the team. He fits the players to what they do best.

Oh man. It doesn't fit your narrative, does it? Must be false, eh?

Nice use of bold. Good post.

Not really not a single other team waited to hire their guys once they interviewed them. The steelers hired Tomlin basically on the spot once they interviewed him. How many times did the pats interview BB? Due diligence is a nice way of saying - its your job until we find someone better, because we still want to look.

If you are 100% sure the guy in front of you is the guy to lead your Billion Dollar franchise, you don't let him walk out the room to chance it. JMO

Fair enough - but i would argue that you get a guy willing to "ADJUST" his scheme, not complete change it. My biggest concern with Stefanski was he doesn't have scheme as he ran Kubiaks plan. I still have that worry today. I maybe worrying for no reason and it will all work out, i admit - but its a valid worry given our history of square pegs and round holes.

Well, you're never 100% sure.

Imagine the blow back if the Browns only interviewed Stephanski. Or only Berry. This place would burn to the ground lol.

With that said, it's hard to apply a double standard (not saying you are doing that) when both sides of the coin don't fit the bill.

On one hand, many state that DePo is drunk with power. On the other, he is the one that set-up extensive interviews for both jobs. If the former is true - why wouldn't he just hire "his guys", Stephanski and Berry, on the spot?

The writer also conviently left out how we passed on Wentz as well - as that was Depo who said he was not worth the pick. I mean come on! If you going to write the story, write the full story. Don't pick and chose the good points.

I actually don't think the Depo/Sashi draft was as bad as most of the anti sashi guys do around here, other than CC disaster, i liked the draft of Ogbah, Joe S, Nassib, etc - esp considering where we drafted them. I thought it was great value, and has proved to be with their play compared to where they were drafted. But you don't get the GLOSS over the historically bad picks/decisions, which this "author" did more than once.

LMAO.

I figured that piece would get a rise out of a few!

That's a good point.

However, I would state that he COULDNT do that, as it would negate his position of even being here. I think Depo had his guy (stefanski) all along, and was going to push him no matter who interviewed, but if he just put his foot down and said we are hiring Kevin (not saying he even has that power to do that - hypothetically of course) it would complete undermine the reason he is here to setup processes. Which is why i question it to begin with.

Let me ask you this - If Bill quit NE after last year and said " I want to come home to Cleveland" but i want an answer today - do you think we do our "due diligence" and wait to interview Stefanski until he was out of the playoffs?

I despised Hue man. Even got yelled at for the amount of post i made against him, but come on. This article was trash.

Just curious, why would you think it's trash?

It doesn't have to be but to claim it's true is just as much of a reach.

What facts do you have to support it isn't? The wording strongly suggests pure conject5ure.