DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... COVID-19

Two infected in the ATL.

A friend of mine, who lives in the ATL, was just visiting France. Hope she's not part of it.

No, they came back from Italy.

Yes, it is serious, and I think everyone here is keeping it in perspective, while continuing to keep tabs on its progression. The simple fact of the matter is that a good deal of this is rightfully alarming, even if there isn't an immediate threat. We're literally watching a trainwreck in slow-motion.

Treatments, e.g. vaccines, are at the very least a year off. Probably closer to 18 months. Also, at least one epidemiologist believes that this could be an annual recurrence, now.... Cold, Flu, and COVID-19 season.

I think that all hopes of an early spring fizzle are gone. The most optimistic I've seen is an analysis done by Forbes magazine that looks for a peak in May. That is a LOT of time, and a lot of opportunity, for this thing to break out.

Thankfully, yes, it is seeming like it is not quite as transmissable as the flu, or at least not as transmissable as originally believed, but they are finding it to be a bit deadlier, too. That's probably a good trade-off, actually.


Lastly, this thing moves fast (-ish). We go from no cases in an area to one to seven pretty quickly sometimes, and while those numbers are small, they're still larger than zero. If you happen to live in one of those areas, being aware so you can beware is a good thing.

p.s. I know you were eager for an immediate reply, but, of all things, I got knocked down by the flu and didn't feel like doing a long reply from a tablet or phone, so I waited until I felt like sitting at my PC

It's my understanding that almost all of it is at a single nursing home.
The steady stream of ambulances is apparently because they're resources are strained so they only call for the ambulances as required, or something like that (trying to cite from memory a report I half-heartedly paid attention to).

Death rate is interesting:

Italy: 3.15%
Iran: 3.3%
South Korea: 0.5%

US: 7.6% (if we are indeed up to 9 deaths now)

I don't know what the takeaway is. Obviously, in the US, the nursing home is a major factor. Italy has modern medicine unlike Iran, yet they have essentially the same rate. South Korea, with more cases than Italy and Iran combined has less than half the deaths of either.

It would be interesting to know the ages of the people that have died, and if they had other health issues.

If I had to guess, that's the major player when comparing those percentages.

Glad you're feeling better.

Good point. Older/weaker immune systems are surely a big factor

I'll see if I can find it again, but I saw data for this yesterday.

It absolutely tracks with age. The older you are, the higher both infection and mortality rates. At 80+, mortality was like 15%.

J/C

Apparently hand sanitizer is a hot item right now.

I just got 400 bottles as giveaways for when I promote my work.

hmmmmmmmmm, ebay anyone lol.

ROFL

Curious what the numbers of infected actually include.

Seems like a lot of people are self-quarantining, and/or just treating it like the flu and resting/hydrating.

Three days later:

US: 148
South Korea: 5621
Italy: 3089
Iran: 2922
Germany: 262
France: 257
Spain: 222
Switzerland: 90
UK: 85

Aside from Iran, all are epicenters of trade and tourism.

I just queued up "Outbreak" on Netflix

53 cases in California, now, and their first death.
Governor has declared a state of emergency.

157 US cases total, now


Italy is suspending all gatherings/events and closing schools and universities nationwide... that suggests it is no longer limited to the north around Milan.


Iranian leader says it is in every province of their country. It is "widespread".

j/c:

Leading Harvard doctor says coronavirus is NOT as deadly as feared because only a small number of contained cruise ship passengers have died and only 0.001% of China's average 25,000 deaths a day are from the virus

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...ath-rate-1.html

The infectious disease doctor where I work kind of echoed that in a meeting. While it needs addressed and not poo pooing it the recovery and death rates are not really different the regular flu. Our lack of immunity to the strain though can make it easier to contract therefore the concerns. I supposse the more catching it certainly can drive those figures in a negative way.

He also mentioned something about some findings that at 27 Celsius it could not survive long at all. Got a few months in order to hit those kind of temps across the globe.

What are the mortality rates for this when compared to the flu?

Influenza.... 0.1%
COVID... around 2%

It’s twenty times more deadly. Granted 98% of those that contract it recover. It’s still not ‘just the flu’.

It's actually running more in the 3.0-3.4% range, now.


No new numbers, or new information of any kind, out of Italy overnight. Kinda weird.


There is another cruise ship being quarantined. Also a Princess ship. This time off the coast of San Francisco as it tries to return to Home Port.

Over 90 new cases in France and 100+ new cases in Germany overnight. Germany sits at 444 cases now.

Something crazy like 230 million children are out of school over this in the EU. Maybe it was 23 million?

I hear 290 million globally

My thinking is that flu cases are typically estimates, based on reported cases vs the populations. How many really report the flu every year?

Whereas COVID is just going by reported cases right now. How many people had/have it that self-quarantined or just fought it at home thinking it's the regular flu?

It's still a nasty bug, but I think the numbers may be skewed.

Right now the biggest concern IMO is that people that spread it may not even know they are sick yet. While the flu typically manifests itself pretty quickly.

Well, it took awhile, but their numbers updated. I think they've been a little busy.
Almost 800 new cases in Italy overnight.

South Korea: 6088
Italy: 3858
Iran: 3513
Germany: 482
France: 377
US: 176
UK: 115

That sounds more like what I saw. I had seen it, but failed to make accurate note before relating it. Thanks!

They're holding a cruise ship off the San Francisco coast, one died, and 20 so far are showing infected.

Imagine if the virus spread to the homeless population there.

Prospective.

What is the population of those 7 countries together?

I do not think that means what you think it means.



No idea, not concerned about looking it up as it is immaterial.

World Coronavirus Cases:
97,965

Deaths:
3,354

Recovered:
54,124

World Population
7.7 billion people

Perspective.

So... no different than everyone's current perspective.

Speak for yourself.

I’m going to buy a bunker for the upcoming zombie apocalypse.

I had a scratchy throat this morning.

Well that's well over 3.3% death rate in known cases. Pretty bad if you ask me since the flu has a .01% rate.

Sort of. It’s currently fall season in the Southern Hemisphere. It’ll be interesting as temperatures drop in places like Australia to see if it starts showing up there.

Body temps are in the 90's so we got nothing to fear.

it's already there.
If you want to avoid it, the only continent available right now is Antarctica, lol

A lot of penguins down there, might catch the bird flu.

Dammit! I should have bought that timeshare.