DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... Contagion : COVID-19 Continued

104,234 cases listed as 'recovered'. Of that, 0 recoveries are listed in the United States. Are we being extrat cautious in reporting people recovered?

You're probably right...

j/c..

40% of those who tested positive in NYC are between the ages of 18-44.

Does anyone think that the shelter in place orders can have the opposite intended effect in areas of close quarters like large apartment complexes?

If the virus can survive on surfaces and in the air (through ventalation systems), doesn't mean that that the virus can infect the entire apartment complex at a faster rate?

Just out of curiosity, what were you expecting?

If they cover it, then those same hands are just touching to cover, and essentially, the same as being uncovered.

And the products you purchased were delivered and stocked by people who probably did not wear gloves as well.

Get Apple pay or Samsung Pay or some pay app on your phone and all you have to do it put it near the CC machine(assuming it is the correct type) and approve the purchase, without touching anything.

Otherwise, I think the onus is on us individually to take steps necessary when in public to protect ourselves.

I live in one no I dont believe so.

I would rather touch a touchpad once, than to handle cash. (which could have tons of germs on it) It would make sense for a business to wipe the terminals down after each use, though. I went to my local Family Dollar .... right after the initial run on hand sanitizer, and the touch screen was filthy.

I keep a bottle of hand sanitizer in my car so that I can sanitize my hands after I have shopped anywhere.

Makes you miss the days when the worst thing on everybody's money was cocaine and strip club glitter, huh? lol

j/c:

My wife's hospital did their last elective surgeries today. Of course, they were swamped.

The Anesthesia Group said they are going to let some of the CRNA's go and cut the salaries.

Right? lol

What are the March 24th numbers for New York.

It's time to take more measures.

If the Grocery stores close, you better hope you have a few guns and several hundred rounds on hand.

I would limit shopping days by month of birth.

It would cut down on crowds and allow the supply chain to work.

We don't really have a shortage. It's just that people are buying 2-3 weeks of goods, every week.

If I was in charge, I would mandate that store managers use good sense and put a stop to runs on products . Just make the announcement, 1 per customer, I don't care if you are already in line.

If you don't like it, don't gat any.

Stores like Publix are already enforcing the limit of 2 for many items.

They also have set hours for senior citizens each day.

I do like your idea of setting up shopping days on date of birth or other similar criteria. That seems smart.

I'm actually predicting we'll be below the curve. You have to remember that first responders are exposed to innumerable diseases on a near daily basis due to the contacts we have with so many people. We tend to develop more resilient immune systems.

Stores don't get resupply every day of the week, and especially not of the month. Generally they receive certain deliveries a few times/week, (fresh goods, baked goods, etc) and they receive basic canned goods, paper supplies, and refrigerated and frozen good once or twice a week.

I would also ask what 2-3 weeks of groceries is, and how do you decide? Do you require that people bring in proof of family size?

There are no really easy answers.

Good post. You got me to reexamine my earlier thoughts. I like that. Now, if you will only think about the possibility of reexamining your thoughts about Baker and OL after some of my posts?

Put a $50-$75 dollar limit on purchases and use loyalty cards to limit purchases to one a day.

Small save-a-lot store here put a limit on most things last week. They were the only store with a selection of fresh meat on Monday. The owner/manager is supervising all day and told me there is a hundred people waiting for them to open every morning because they restock nightly.

2 Krogers, Walmart, Meijer, Giant Eagle, and Aldi all looked like the old rationing pics we would see out of Russia during the cold war.

You're already way behind on the control measures.

Stores in Northeast Ohio have already limited the quantities, 2 loaves of bread, 1 carton of eggs, 1 bundle of TP.

The grocery stores are not going to close. The panic run has already happened in most places. Pretty calm now.

Same with ammo, I finally found 9mm yesterday but you were limited to 2 boxes and they were only quantites of 20. The prices were severly marked up as well. Supply and demand.

Same with my brother's anesthesia group. Had meetings with all the CRNAs and reduced everyone to 2-3 days a week with unpaid furloughs. A number of his friends lost their jobs with other groups.

Giving the critical need for ICU nurses, some of the CRNAs up there are transitioning back to ICU nurses during the time of need. Some of the recruiters have ICU nursing jobs listed anywhere from $6700/wk - $7100/wk. They're that desperate for help.

Hope everything works out for your wife.

At least x2. Probably closer to 5x or 10x.

We still are WAY behind in testing for COVID-19.

If you look at the contagion factor of the flu relative to COVID-19, COVID-19 is 1.69 times more infectious.

If you take the CDC estimates for the flu and extrapolate based on yearly cases in the US YTD.

45,000,000 flu cases a year.

123,287 flu cases a day.

83 days elapsed YTD in 2020.

83 X 123,287 x 1.69 = 17,293,467 potential COVID-19 cases in the US as of today.

It is more than likely a lot lower than that since the virus was only recently discovered but it also could have been around a lot longer than we think.

So... as many as 17,293,467 cases could be present in the US.

If we go with the x2 estimate, then there are likely ~100,000 cases in the US.

The good thing is that this means the actual death rate is likely lower no matter how you slice it, the question is how much lower is it than we think right now?

The # of deaths in the US is probably the most accurate number we have in tracking COVID-19.

The death rate would need to be 10-20x lower to be comparable to the death rate of the flu.

So if there are truly 750,000 cases in the US right now and not ~50,000 then we might be in a lot better shape than we think.

My best guess is that there are actually around 200,000 cases and the true death rate for COVID-19 is lower than we think.

Really tough to know what data is accurate at this point, so it's tough to model effectively.

Thank you. In return, I hope it all works out for your brother, as well.

Btw...........Thanks for all the information you have posted to keep us informed. I appreciate it.

I've been thinking about this type of thing quite a bit.

We keep seeing the confirmed cases go up, as we test more and more people. That increase in confirmed cases should be expected.

But we also here that many, many people have it and show no symptoms, or symptoms light enough they don't seek medical attention.

Say there are 4 times as many people that have it - that puts it at well over 200,000. Again, some 80% of the confirmed cases are mild.

The death number is probably very accurate.

I still wonder if my daughter didn't have it back in mid December, and me in early/mid Jan. The only 'known' symptom either of us didn't have was fever. But, we never took our temps, either. Maybe not, who knows.

But, knowing that the number of confirmed cases is well below the actual number, and knowing the death total, can we assume it's not as deadly as once thought?

Or is that all just wishful thinking?

I pray you're right.
Please stay safe.

Thank you, I appreciate that

Don’t think it would be typical because of the population densities, but NYC police have 211 confirmed cases and 2,774 out sick-about 8% of their force

Depends on volume of stores as per # of days delivered per week. Worked in the supermarket industry for 46+ years.

Lg supermarket/high volume perishable dept deliveries(produce, deli, meat, dairy, etc) are generally 5 days a week(Mon's, Tues's, Wed's OR Th's, Fri's, and Sat's) with no perishables on Sun's and either Weds or Thurs. Frozen foods generally 5 days as well. These are your solid, 20-22 pallet/skid cubed semi's.

Some lower/mid volume stores would be generally 4 days per week for perishables and 3 days for grocery/non-perishables.

Grocery/non-perishables (paper towels, TP, jars/canned items, etc) generally delivered at later-day/early eve in time for grocery night crew shifts.

Shhhh.....If you read between the lines, don't do perishable shopping on Mon's or Wed/Thurs's. If the perishable dept mgr writes tight, good orders your perishable items came in a min 2 days before. No doubt still good quality/ edible. As far as perishables, an empty cooler before deliveries is a happy cooler and translates to "a fresher product" on the sales floor. The fresher the product the "LONGER LEGS" it has so to speak.

OMG!!! Why do I even know this?

You sure know a lot about TP.

You should change your name to TPDawg.

Dawg:

My first real paycheck (check stub/taxes, etc.) was from a Mom&Pop grocery: Harris IGA

I was a lowly stock clerk/checkout bagger, and only worked for Claude Harris about 18 months. In that time, I came to appreciate just how complex a system exists behind the scenes. The casual shopper has no idea what must happen to ensure that head of lettuce is in the case when they stop in for provisions.

*thanks for the inside 411 on produce buying days, btw-

Wait.. thoughts and prayers Clem? Really?? LOL

I was just commenting to my wife the other day when I left the local Food Lion about how I wished there was a manager handy when I checked out.

It was about the 3rd time that week I had gone there for something and very little of the meat and canned goods had been replenished, certainly no paper products. But the employees were stocking what they could and still trying to provide a higher level of service that social distancing would still allow.

I was super impressed with how their employees conducted themselves. Doubly so considering how many of the are so young.

I really believe that a lot of that initial panic was brought under control because of how well grocery employees did their jobs. they weren't panicking, they weren't doing anything that would give customers the sense there was a reason to freak out.

I don't know. I was just really impressed with such a high level of professionalism during such times.

Service industry employees are First Responders in their own way.

'Everyday Heroes' are stepping up.

Sometimes, they wear uniforms.
Sometimes, they wear aprons.