DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus COVID-19 pt4

What's "par four the course"? I can see how he came to that conclusion after you posted this:

". . . . and we have Posters saying that the crowded beaches of FL during Spring Break have nothing to do with what Trump did and said."

Despite my lack of belief that a long explanation will be taken seriously, here goes.

First before the grammar police try to bust me for using my phone - it should be 'par for the course'.

Secondly - Arch was rallying against Trump taking "ALL" the blame the other day. And I agree - Trump doesn't own all the blame, any official from Mayor to Governor who has said and done dumb stuff also deserves criticism. But Trump has by far the biggest platform and has clearly said some of the dumbest things ... he deserves constant scrutiny and criticism when he's screwing up.

In Arch's defense of Trump he sighted the dumb people crowding the beaches in FL as not being Trump's fault. I disagree. Because if Trump had taken this seriously and been extolling the potential path and numbers of this virus from the beginning, then people might have started to change behaviors.... as it was Trump didn't start talking about this thing as a serious problem for the USA until right at the time of Spring Break.

In my post before I refereed to that. What I did not say is that people were on Spring Break changed their plans because of or made their plans based on what Trump said.

"Originally Posted By: Squires
You think spring breakers made their plans based on what Trump said? I doubt it."

No I didn't say that at all.

What I said was the Spring Breakers were never given a chance to be influenced by Trump because before they went on vacation Trump was telling them all everything was fine. This was just like the Flu. It'd be gone soon.

What I think Trump could and should have done - say back in JANUARY when Peter Navarro, for example, wrote to Trump and told him how deadly this thing was ..... he could have started taking it seriously and relaying the potential impact to the nation. . . . Throughout February as the data from the world proved what was undoubtedly going to happen here in the USA ... he could have continued to talk about this seriously and talk about the measures that other countries were seeing as a means to reduce the speed of the spread.

IF he had done that I think SOME spring breakers would have changed plans. The beaches would have been less crowded. I don't know if it would have been by 5% or 25% or 40% .... but it would of had an impact.

Instead - no spring breakers made or changed plans because of Trump because he was telling them all was well.

And in a "you can't make this stuff up" piece of Trumpism -

One of his IG's writes a critical report about availability of hospital supplies to test for and protect hospital workers from Corgvid 19 ..... Trump lashes out at the man and claims it's possibly a politically motivated report and that they should have sent him a memo before releasing the report. . . .

Navarro writes Trump a memo in January forewarning of a immense and imminent threat to the USA and it's economy .... Trump says he never read it.

Go figure.

Fauci last month, we could see 100k-200k deaths.

Yesterday, 15k deaths total, 1,400 for the day.

At what point do we deem this overblown? If not overblown, then would it not be an admission that it was handled well?

I'll paraphrase Dr. Amy Acton here:

"What will success look like? Success will look like we overreacted."
Social distancing is working well. In Ohio, it is working REALLY well. We didn't just flatten the curve, we crushed it.

The thing to remember about models is that they are made based on the data you have at the time they are made. You can try to predict the impact of the measures you're putting into place, but you can't *know* until you actually do it and measure it. Thus, all models get improved with time.

Also, don't forget that it is still early, and we are still ramping up in a LOT of places. Our number of deaths per day is still growing each day. Yesterday was over 1900. Today will likely be a good bit over 2000. This time next week could be 2300-2500 - or more. Louisiana, Michigan, Connecticut, Illinois.... there are about 15 states whose number of cases are growing by more than 1,000/day now. Those states will have their death counts accelerating very soon. There are another 10 states right behind them with daily case growth of 300-500.

Lastly... when they trot out numbers like that, they are going to paint the ugliest picture that the numbers support because they NEED people to get the picture. There are a LOT of dumb, stubborn people out there that often need to be shocked into paying attention.

Well for one - there are currently nearly 2k deaths a day being reported. Another 43 days and we'll be right at the lower end of the estimate. Does that mean it wasn't handled well and not over blown?

We still are probably way under reporting the number of infected and the number of deaths. Does that mean it isn't being handled well and not over blown?

I think it's way too premature to start suggesting this is overblown.

With luck maybe it will be - but if we do somehow dodge a bullet, if you want to go on record and say you think Trump showed good leadership and handled this well ..... I'd suggest you review the video that's posted showing his various comments and how he flip flopped on everything he said 10-14 days after he says it. That between lashing out and blaming every one else for the issues .... If that's good and that's leadership I must be looking at the world all the wrong.

It's hard to argue that it is overblown when you look at Italy, Spain, or other places that acted too late.

In fact, the death tolls we are now seeing are very similar to what epidemiologists predicted back in February that we could see if social distancing was effective.

I checked NYT and it said 1,500 deaths but either way we aren't even at 10% of 200k. This would have to increase drastically or hold firm for months.

In no way was I complaining about the numbers being so low. I am very happy we overreacted and got out in front of this. It just cannot be both ways.....If the numbers say it's a success, great, that is amazing. Hell yeah, but I see a lot of, this was such a historic failure type of talk.


I have been sort of holding my breath on the Southeastern states, but that just had not played out yet, so I guess we just wait and see on those.

Just had to act like a snarky jackass huh? WELL FOR ONE, pound sand bro. I didn't even mention Trump.

I got my numbers from this

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

I have also seen the exact opposite stated, that since they can't test everyone, anyone with symptoms is diagnosed as having it to be safe, which is SMART.

This thing isn't going away. We are not remotely close to emerging from this.

It is VERY likely that both of those things will happen. Numbers will be increasing steadily for the next several weeks, and if Italy and Spain are any sort of indicator, which they are, we can expect it to then hold there for many weeks. They are now saying that Ohio may not peak until mid-June (at the latest)... which means that we likely won't begin to slide back down until mid-July and we won't begin to emerge from anything until August.


Keep in mind, China didn't have some weak little lockdown like we're doing... they SHUT DOWN - and it still took two full months to slow to a trickle. We are not likely to slow to a trickle any time soon. We won't peak as high, but we will ride our peak for much, much longer.

That was likely referencing the day before's data.

Use this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

You can see the current day and the previous day. Each day resets at midnight GMT (8pm EDT).

If you are happy -- and it is important that we got out in front of this -- then how is it an overreaction?

Sorry that was your take away ... I wasn't being snarky - I was using the same language and framed the same questions back at you the way you framed them but from the other perspective. Personally and sadly I think we will end up sailing passed 100K deaths. And I couldn't tell you if that (or whatever the final number is) is good or bad compared to what might have been.

And while you didn't mention Trump by name - I think it's reasonable int the PP section for " then would it not be an admission that it was handled well?" to be a reference to Trump and how he has handled it?

I'm not sure how many in Ohio think that DeWine has done a good job, but I do.

Ohio like California and Washington State, seemed to be ahead of the curve.

DeWine has earned his pay.

So in other words you refuse to address any of the points in made in my civil response to you.

I laid it out quite plainly and this is all you have in response?

Mmmm, hmmm....

We don't get talked about considering how small our population is compared to our state, but our governor has followed DeWine's playbook.

Then you have idiots like Desantis...

It's a prime time to see which politicians are more grounded in caring for their people and which one's put ideology above all else. DeWine seems to put the people first.

So in summary.

Anyone that says it was overblown will be chastised as not understanding measures were taken and effective at stopping worse case scenario.

And at the same time, anyone that says the measures taken saved us all, will be chastised as believing the hype.

And to top it all off, both sides will fight it out on this board for the foreseeable future.



In other words, it is just like politics, the other side is always in the wrong.

Look at other states, it's not that hard.

Desantis still refuses to do the necessary steps (mandates that close everything) while allowing loopholes (local munucipalities can open churches and other places) for places to stay open.

Florida has three times as many cases as Ohio, and close to three times as many deaths.

It's quite apparent the states that enacted hard social distancing measures in a quick manner have lower cases than compared to other states who waited to enact social distancing measures.

Governor DeWine's approval rating was at 83% which was the second highest in the country and just behind Maryland's Gov. Larry Hogan at 84% as of April 4th.

I don't know how you got that conclusion from what I wrote, but, ok.

WOW

Pence's office blocks public health officials from appearing on CNN.

Really "Pence's" office. trump cant even put his name on his disgusting decisions any more. All hail the King!

Are are saying they should take the actual evidence of pro active states and compare them. You know we can't have that.

Facts are a liberal invention, right?

it appears that since they won't cover Trump's entire daily campaign speeches they are using pressure to try and get them to give trump more air time. From bragging about his ratings, to trying to make political points by discussing several issues other than the virus and giving corporate endorsements, who really wants to hear his crap anyway?

Trump calls that fake news.

It wasn't necessarily in regards to what YOU wrote, but the idea of opinions when this is behind us.

That no matter the outcome at the end of this, there will be those that think the measures were right, there will those that think it was all overblown hype, and there will still be those that think it was all a hoax the whole time.

Are you talking to me?
What are you talking about?

You presented the view that no one is right and no one is wrong in regards to social distancing policies.

I provided data that social distancing works, and the states that don't have strict social distancing are far off worse than those with strict social distancing.

This isn't "politics". This is hard factual data that clearly shows social distancing works.

I presented a view that some people think all of this is real, and are doing their part.

Some think it's real but overblown by the government and media.

and some think it's all a hoax.

I has nothing to do with social distancing. It has nothing to do with any facts you can present.

Fact: There are people who think the world is flat.

Do you see what I was getting at? There are people of all 3 opinions, and no matter the facts you present they will what they believe, and you all can argue until you are blue in the face, but the fact doesn't change, Some believe, some don't.

I think I do?

Sorry, just been dealing with too many "the cure is worse than the cause!" or "DUMB GOVERNMENT OVERREACH FDA BAD TRUMP GOOD!" types as of late.

Help me, who is Desantis?

Florida's governor.

I think, once this is all said and done, we can look back and see which things we did that worked well, which things were overreactions.

The fact that you have the entire spectrum of responses from governors shows that there isn't really any sort of playbook to draw from regarding dealing with this sort of thing. Getting through this will help in figuring out how we should act next time.

I highly doubt our elected officials can approach this in such a productive manner, though.

It will always be a bit hard to untangle - because there are also going to be a lot of state to state fluctuations.

I am not going to be able to find the study offhand - but the travel of ~3-5 super spreaders to any metro area can accelerate the epidemic in that area by about 2 weeks. Some areas like New York (and New Orleans in February) which have a lot of tourists going in and out, obviously got hit very hard by that. Some metro areas that have lots of tourists (like Chicago), seem to have gotten luckier and mostly avoided it.

Oh yeah,,, is he the one that said he didn't have the authority to close churches and other houses of worship?

Man, he not only has the right, but it is his responsibility to close them to keep citizens safe...

The whole religious rights thing will be another issue that needs to be addressed after this is over. Under circumstances like this I think people should have the undeniable right to worship as they see fit as long as it does not physically harm another. Going to church and having big gatherings where everybody is willing to accept the risk seems like it should have been okay, but the danger to the greater public was not. There will be big debates over this.

Update:

Pence's office reversed course...

Why would CNN refuse to show Trumps briefings since 60% of America wants to see them? Could it be politics in this time of a horrible problem? Screw CNN. Nobody with any sense watches them anyway.

The reason CNN and NOT 60% of the USA wants to see Trump's briefings is because he literally talks garbage. . . . Although I guess some might enjoy watching the train wreck.

It will be a long time before we can deem if the reaction was overblown or not. It will depend on if things bounce back or not and how long that takes. Governors are talking no mass gatherings until their is a vaccine. That could take years to have an enough vaccine for the entire population.

That means no church, no sporting events, no concerts, no restaurants, no travel and a number of other things. That will keep unemployment high for a long time. What happens when the money is gone? People have no food, no place to live. Can the government prop people up long enough until things recover? If they can't, does society start to unravel? How many people die if that happens?

Hopefully none of that happens. Personally, I think the aftermath will be worse than the virus.