DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... Groundhog Day: COVID-19

j/c...

Guinea Pigs.
Living Experiment Subjects
Crash Test Dummies

DeWine is incrementally re-opening here in OH. I have a dental appt in 2 weeks. I will go, but I'm still going to stay home as much as possible. I'll be masked until I'm in the chair, and I'll be masked before I leave.

Until widespread testing comes to me, I'll continue behaving as if I'm an asymptomatic carrier. My mask is for others' welfare. I was raised in the church. I was raised to exercise judgement. I was raised to be a good citizen. For me, this is not much of an imposition, if it means doing my part for my fellow citizen(s).

Great news today in Alaska.

0 new cases.

We're at less than 100 cases in the entire state!

252 people have recovered.

Sad news is that we've had 9 die in the state since this has all started.

Groundhog day.... WTF is wrong with people. People are dying every single day by the hundreds just in Ohio alone yet some *insert words that would get me banned* are worried about pot instead of covid-19. Sick, stupid, ignorant, and assinine. Hey Ohio lets worry about people dying instead of people just trying to survive. I always say I am not shocked by folks anymore, BUT This shocks me. Stupid is as stupid does.

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/04/s...-in-courts.html

Just legalize it and hand it out to everyone that wants it...

Imagine the fat asses that would create during the pandemic. lol

This thing has been losing steam in the media for a few weeks. Time was every single suggestion when I opened my browser was Covid this and Covid that and that ended at least 2 weeks ago and has basically dwindled to nothing. It's all pretty strange to me and I have zero insight to offer on it...too busy doing my job keeping a hospital stocked that is using none of those supplies.

Hmmm... been just the opposite for me. I am sick of COVID, COVID, COVID... News, emails, social media, most casual conversations in the real world. But the circles we live in are probably different. The coding community tends to lean liberal on news, I watch liberal news outlets, and my friends tend to be more liberal...

There's nothing new with it... it's just still there, not going away, nothing is changing. Infections are still happening, it is still spreading, people are still dying. There are no updates or no progress on treatments. Vaccines are too far off to to have anything to write about. There is no shock and surprise or sensationalism with it any longer; it has become the mundane killer.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/covid-19-cidrap-viewpoint



Part 1: "The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from pandemic influenza" (Apr 30, 2020)

Welcome to "COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint." We appreciate that other expert groups have produced detailed plans for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission and for reopening the country after stay-at-home orders and other important mitigation steps are eased. Our intent with the Viewpoint is to add key information and address issues that haven't garnered the attention they deserve and reflect the unique experience and expertise among the CIDRAP team and our expert consultants.

We will address timely issues with straight talk and clarity. And the steps we will recommend will be based on our current reality and the best available data. Our goal is to help planners envision some of the situations that might present themselves later this year or next year so that they can take key steps now, while there’s still time.

"COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint" will address such topics as pandemic scenarios going forward, crisis communication, testing, contact tracing, surveillance, supply chains, and epidemiology issues and key areas for research. We will release approximately one to two reports per week.

Our hope is that our effort can help you plan more effectively and understand the many aspects of this pandemic more clearly—and for you and your family, friends, and colleagues to be safer.

_________________________________________________________________

In the first report, published Apr 30, 2020, "The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from pandemic influenza," Kristine Moore, MD, MPH, Marc Lipsitch, DPhil, John Barry, MA, and Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, paint a picture of the pandemic and detail how it's behaving more like past influenza pandemics than like any coronavirus has to date. And, because of that, certain inferences can be drawn — such as the fact that it may well last 18 to 24 months, especially given that only 5% to 15% of the U.S. population is likely infected at this point.

Key recommendations from the report:

• States, territories, and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst-case scenario (which involves a large second peak of cases in the fall of 2020), including no vaccine availability or herd immunity.
• Government agencies and healthcare delivery organizations should develop strategies to ensure adequate protection for healthcare workers when disease incidence surges.
• Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers for reinstituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur.
• Risk communication messaging from government officials should incorporate the concept that this pandemic will not be over soon and that people need to be prepared for possible periodic resurgences of disease over the next 2 years.

The first CIDRAP Viewpoint report lays out three scenarios for how cases might ebb and flow in the coming months. No one knows exactly how this virus will behave. But, based on what scientists have recorded so far and on previous influenza pandemics, the report illustrates some of the possibilities.

My only real question in what the report is saying are sort of two fold.

First, it has not yet been established that those who have had the virus are immune to getting it again.

Secondly, with the limited testing we've had, I have no idea how anyone could arrive at the conclusion that only 5% to 15% have been infected.

On your first item, they are basing things on the assumption that this will behave similar to other known coronaviruses and there will be immunity, and even if that immunity degrades with time, it will still prevent more severe illnesses on reinfection

On the second item, if you didn't notice, they have a pretty wide range there. 5% is still 16-17 million people and 15% is about 50 million.

It is no secret that the official number is not real. As you know, it merely represents the sickest cases that require someone to go to the E.R. So, there are a LARGE number of people out there that did get sick, but not sick enough to be admitted. We also know that this virus has a VERY large percentage that remains completely asymptomatic. From that, it is quite easy to say that we have anywhere from 10 to 50 people out there that have had it for every positive test we've recorded. I think it would be a dangerous stretch to think that it is more than 50 per positive case, so I think 15% is a pretty safe & realistic upper limit.

Not listed in the summary/about article, but covered in the PDF is the following:

3 Scenarios following the first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020:

• Scenario 1: a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a 1-to 2-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021
• Scenario 2: a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020 and one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021
• Scenario 3: a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and case occurrence, but without a clear wave pattern.

Personally, I anticipate Scenario 2.

j/c...

Governor Mike DeWine
@GovMikeDeWine
Social distancing and face coverings are still very, very important. May 29th is the expiration date for the new order, but don't read too much into that date. We will be issuing new orders throughout the month. No one should be too fixated on the date.

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1256286208445030400

People may bag on me for this take, BUT... deaths outnumbered new ICU admissions. That is beds and vents available.

Since they don't give us any other numbers to go on, that's what I've got.

What would be interesting to know,how many of those 1000+ in ICU have either recovered or passed on.
In other words,what is the net gain,or lose,in ICU capacity.

exactly.

Instead of some cumulative total that is almost meaningless, how about just give us the current total and it's percentage of capacity?
Also, what exactly is our surge capacity?

Given that the entire point of all of these measures is to prevent a situation our hospitals cannot handle, why aren't they giving us a clearer picture of what they can handle and what they are currently handling?

j/c...

*Applause*

I am buying hair spray by the ton, so that my hair stays ever so slightly under control. It may take an hour to get it cut right.

My hair was in bad shape even before the barber was closed up. It's crazy now.

If you look at the total new cases in the United States the last few days, the new case total is going up by about 6-8% per day.
On Tuesday, we were around just under 26k I believe, on Wednesday 28,400 and yesterday 30,829, today we are just under 30k and have 13 or 14 states still to report.

I wonder if this is more than just a short trend, more testing, some areas relaxed guidelines.
Some states like Tennessee and Georgia had big jumps today over yesterday. Georgia was 500+ cases higher (613 to 1173) and Tennessee went from 369 yesterday to 1156 today

As I said a couple days ago, my dad is in a nursing home and they thought he was positive about 5 weeks ago (the nursing home had zero confirmed cases at that time) but they never tested him for sure. they treated the fever and it went away in a couple days and they put him in iso. This week he had a fever and respiratory problems so they put him on oxygen and this time tested for covid and it was positive. He was still in isolation and now in that home between staff and patients they have approx 100 cases.

Also, one of my sisters put something on social media about my dad yesterday and one of her co workers wrote back about her grandma (in her 90's) who was in a nursing home with dementia but doing ok and she got covid a few weeks ago and passed within a few days.

When they went and got the death certificate this week, they put down that she died of dementia or Alzheimers, they never mentioned a word that she died of covid-so my sister asked me if I think they are not counting all the people who are dying of covid-of course they are.

the family of this grandma that died said that they are going back and want them to reissue the death certificate cause she didn't die of dementia.

It's just a blip. Before the 26k a few days ago, we had been averaging 30-35k every day.

I think the most frustrating thing for me is HOW things are being reported. Especially deaths. Did you die FROM covid, or did you die WITH covid.

Even Ohio is reporting new deaths - deaths that occurred weeks ago - as 'new deaths' in the 'daily dead' section. In other words, maybe 20 people died today from 'covid', or died 'with' covid, but hey, we have 20 autopsies from 2 weeks so the report says "40 new deaths".

And this, just now:



United States
Coronavirus Cases:
1,126,432
Deaths:
65,598
Recovered:
160,179

What's up with the other 900,655 people?

Why does the u.s. have so many more cases, and so many more dead to covid?

Sorry to read this.
The sad thing is, is that this is happening all over. I see it in the facilities I work in. What the news stories report and what’s reported as the official known public death count is NOT correct. I know the actual numbers in many of the local facilities. It’s much higher than what’s being reported.

I hope you and your family get through this. I’ll say a prayer for your father.

I have a few thoughts. First, obesity is rampant in our society. It’s the leading comorbity of COVID. There’s a reason why you see CPAP machine adds on TV. It’s not because we as humans have suddenly forgotten to breathe while we sleep. It’s because we’re fat. Obesity and respiratory issues go hand in hand.

Secondly, American exceptionalism. We as a culture act like these things don’t happen to us. Because “We’Re tHE GrEATesT CouNtrY oN eArTH”. So we’re flippant about our approach and our reaction. We’re soft and spoiled. “How dare you tell me I can’t get my haircut! That’s fascism!!” ...or some other ism that is not fully understood by the person throwing it around.

Leading to my third reason. We’re a poorly educated citizenry. Science is hard. Facts have become tiresome to us. We ‘know what we know’ and no one can tell us different. So “if no one I know is sick, then this entire thing is a hoax or some other nonsense and I should be able to get my hair cut. Yada yada.”

Harsh, but it’s what I see.

Consider shaving your head. If I knew back in the day how good this felt, I might have considered doing it way before I did. There's a good thread on here from about 2 years ago with good info on head shaving.

(CNN)The White House is blocking Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the administration's coronavirus task force, from testifying on Capitol Hill next week, according to a spokesman from a key House committee.

"The Appropriations Committee sought Dr. Anthony Fauci as a witness at next week's Labor-HHS-Education Subcommittee hearing on COVID-19 response. We have been informed by an administration official that the White House has blocked Dr. Fauci from testifying," House Appropriations Committee spokesman Evan Hollander said in a statement Friday.
White House deputy press secretary Judd Deere confirmed the decision.
"While the Trump Administration continues its whole-of-government response to COVID-19, including safely opening up America again and expediting vaccine development, it is counter-productive to have the very individuals involved in those efforts appearing at Congressional hearings," Deere said in a statement. "We are committed to working with Congress to offer testimony at the appropriate time."
This story has been updated to correct the last name of House Appropriations Committee spokesman Evan Hollander in one reference.

It's much simpler.... we have five times the population of pretty much any individual European nation.

Our deaths per capita aren't so bad, comparatively.

They're bad.

We only trail Switzerland.

Source

Here's also another based solely on population.

Link

That looks like the new math crap they are teaching our kids and grandkids.

No Testing? NO Testing!

18,700 cases in Ohio, (yesterday) and 1002 deaths,

That's about 5 percent. That is not zero point 1 percent or 1 percent.
5.358 percent death rate, ehh roundabout, numbers may not be right.

So, reported cases are probably incorrect.

j/c:

SUNLIGHT KILLS CORONAVIRUS QUICKLY, SAYS TOP DHS OFFICIAL

https://www.newsweek.com/sunlight-kills-coronavirus-scientist-1500012

People have been asking DeWine and Acton for "recovered" numbers since March 1st. Where are they?

There's still not enough tests across all the states to test if someone is recovered.

Alaska's been posting recovery numbers, but this is only due to our population size vs the amount of tests we have.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We're better than much of Europe.
Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, and Switzerland are all worse off.

Additionally, that is also just about the top of the list for countries with the most cases, per capita or otherwise. We aren't doing too badly at all.

Didn't Sweden try to develop "herd mentality" by not instituting stay at home orders? I seem to recall hearing that it hasn't worked.