DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Hype and No Hype

Time and time again we have to learn the lesson that this team can tank a season, even under the best (perceived) conditions.

That said, (and in the spirit of the thread), I think the most impactful change happened before FA and draft. We ended the Freddie circus. Good or bad, the biggest impact will be felt from swapping Stefanski in for Kitchens. On offense, our performance should be night-and-day just on this alone. I felt our Oline talent could be better (and now it is), but that's small impact compared to coaching/coordinating. We'll also have Hunt for a full season, which can't be anything but good.

I think our defense will not be as good as it was supposed to be last year, which may not matter as the actual defense wasn't as good as it was supposed to be (last year). Who knows... we could get lucky with Vernon and have him play w/ no major injuries. I am worried about the back-end of our secondardy... FS and SS is a big ? after all the departures we had from last year.

I agree.

The key is the coaching and system in place. If our staff is at least good, we will do alright. If it is a cluster like it has been under the last two head coaches, it will remain a cluster.

I dont know as much as a lot of you when it comes to X’s and O’s ... but the vibe I get is that Stefanski’s system will be tailored much more to our personnel than FK’s

Most coaches talk about matching offense to players, but we saw only a bit of that. The previous two coaches had a magic hatpin to pick plays, and some were bad and some just bizarro. IF we can dance with them what brung us, plays to our strengths, we should be fine.

Never know until you strap iy on and play, but we have a solid on paper now.

Not sure how many of the past failed coaching staffs that have come through here have said that, but it's the majority (if not all of them).

Will believe it if I see it.

The problem is there's no "I" in team and the question remains if the Browns are going to be a team or a bunch of "I's."

Outside of that, there are a lot of unanswered questions at this point:

1. Which Mayfield will be on the field in 2020 - the 2018 Mayfield or the 2019? System wise, what effect will a run oriented offense have on a the "run and shoot" Franchise QB the Browns drafted? Are they playing to Mayfield's strengths or playing "Ditka Ball" of just limiting his mistakes? If playing from behind, the run controlled offense becomes obsolete, how confident are the Browns in their 3 or 4 WR sets?

2. Again in 2019, the Browns defense could not stop the run. As of now the D-line is basically unchanged and LB has huge question marks. Pittsburgh bolstered their offense at WR and RB. Baltimore bolstered their run offense by adding Dobbins, Ohio State to an already potent run offense. The Browns were 30th in run defense in 2019 - have they done enough to improve on that statistic and what effect will another 30th ranking have on the offensive game plan of the Browns?

3. With two new OT's pitted for starting roles, how long will it take the Browns OL to jell as a unit? With 4 contests scheduled against Baltimore #3 in sacks in 2019 and Pittsburgh #4 - the Browns offensive line will be tested. Add in contests scheduled against sack artists like J.J. Watt HOU, Houston IND, Crosby LVR, Ngakoue JAC, Landry TEN and Dunlap CIN, the Browns tackles will be tested early and often in 2020 in their protection of Mayfield.

On paper the Browns look much better than 7-9. Last year they looked better than 6-10 too. New players, new coaches, new schemes - can the Browns jell early under the new leadership? Wins build confidence so it may be critical for the Browns to win early. Respect is earned and the Browns high expectations last year with poor results certainly has a bearing on this years projection. Positive results will make those doubts fade away but another year of struggles will highlight questionable areas.

I think the only real question mark is Baker at this point.

We did bolster the DLine and its ability to stop the run. Heck, just getting Myles back and having Vernon healthy is a major boost, but we added rotational guys, too. In fact, when you look at every guy we added to the LB room and the DLine in both free agency and the Draft, they are all solid against the run.

On the Oline, with the exception of Wills, I don't see it as any different than any other OLine in any other camp. Conklin is a veteran and a Pro; he won't have any trouble at all settling that spot quickly. It's just going to be a matter of getting reps next to whomever ends up owning RG. The person that ends up there is between Conklin and Tretter, and Tretter doesn't need to worry about his left side, so we can slide in someone less experienced at RG and roll with it. I expect it to be Drew Forbes. At LT, I think Wills is going to surprise a lot of people and make the transition much more rapidly than one might think. If nothing else, he has been practicing his sets and drops from that side since January; by the time mini camps roll around, he'll have had nearly half a year of focusing on just that AND he and every other rookie got to skip the crazy pre-Draft routine of private workouts and team visits. Don't underestimate the impact that has as these kids won't be as burned out mid-season as they actually got a real offseason of sorts. Besides that, he can't be worse than what we had there last year.

Dobbins still scares me, though. Him with Lamar Jackson in a run-oriented offense is very disconcerting.

I agree. It’s put up or shut up for Baker now. Just about every QB in the NFL would take his situation ... he’s the #1 overall pick entering his 3rd season.

I’m rooting for him to be the guy, but now he has to prove it

Can we really make predictions on the season without knowing what stars the Browns are going to waive before the season starts.

They cut Haden,
They Cut Duke- effectively

They cut Jabrill Peppers for a trade, along with the left guard.

(no it was actually this, they traded, blah blah blah, doesn't matter)

The thing is we can't be sure who is on the team even, .. even if there is a September start to the season.

Who do they part with?
Richardson? Hunt? Bitonio? Njoku? it's got to be somebody.

Until this team, can stay whole, by their own doing, how can we expect anything other than double digit losses.
Every year.

They can't even decide on a coach, and GM, which might have a shared vision and keep some underperformers around until they get their feet wet.

Mike Tomlin had a bad first 2 years, he'd a never made it in Cleveland.

Can you name one person/player and know for sure they are on this team in November of 2020, and know 100% even 90% that this group won't try something else.
I can't, most likely Baker, but I can't; The Browns have showed this in the past.
So since I don't know who is on the team, how can anyone know what their record will be.

The thing with Baker is he played well as a rookie.

I think the problem is on O we were never on the same page when implementing that O.

I think Baker can have a pro-bowl type season. Hooper might catch 75 balls and lead the team in receptions.

If you want to talk Defense
why not look at the (ok, i'll say projection, fact is to be argued)

that Mitchell is still a more "productive" corner on any given day than at least "one of" Greedy or Ward,

and yet they didn't start him, even though the younger guys weren't ready yet.

Ok, start throwing tomatoes at me, controversial statement.

Agreed. We've all seen him light it up, so we know the potential is there; it's just a matter of will that Baker or the 2019 Baker be the guy we get from now on? It's Year 3... it's time to settle into that performance mode and establish consistency with it.

I don't agree that Mitchell was better than Ward, though Ward had his struggles last year. I do agree that he was better than Greedy, however.

Greedy was definitely a liability at times. Those guys were NOT a shut-down duo back there.

Hopefully, they all find a way to stay healthy and not get concussed eleventy times this season and they're all able to establish a No-Fly Zone back there.

J/C
In terms of Greedy ... I think his name preceded his play a little bit. I thought he was attacked quite often in the passing game. IIRC, the stretch of games against NE, DEN, SEA wasn’t kind to him.

Obviously he will (should) improve but he’s far from a GOOD player at this point

No disagreement.

Again, not making excuses for the guy, that first full season is a long season. Heisman awards, training, combine, draft, mini camps, than another season with no real time off from his final college season.....plus he got married. I can give him a pass for last year because wasn't all on coaches or other players. He just wasn't crisp on many occasions.

I hope I am right, but I think we get the good Backer back and mediocre Baker is gone.

If not, Case Keenum is a better than average QB. We could easily start that guy and win football games.

If Baker shows up pudgy and starts throwing stupid picks..I quality that because sometimes good throws get picked., then stick Keenum in for 2-3 games, then see where it stands.

Baker is our future, but the future doesn't have to project out 5-6 years. I can be 1 or 2.

Hey, we did sign a QB. Kid out of Princeton. You can't be a dummy to go there, and hey, maybe he is even pretty good.

Factoid...the best player to come out of Princeton was K Charlie Gogolak. His brother Pete was better, the first soccer style kicker I recall, but Charlie was pretty good. He played for maybe 7-8 years....just guessing on that. May have been a little less or a little longer, but was a good kicker.


OK...I don't know if he was the best. I didn't look it up. For some reason I know he played for Princeton. I know he played a good while and Princeton can't have more than 25 guys who made the NFL. Seth went to Princeton, but I am not sure he is playing anymore.

I think we all need to learn to accept that there will be a certain amount of these every year.

I only say that because of whom he has regularly been compared to in terms of playing style, and that is Favre and Favre was known to take lots of chances/risks with things because he simply trusted his abilities. He would gamble and win, a lot... but, he'd gamble and lose, too.


Hopefully, if we're stuck with something between 2018 and 2019, it at least leans toward the 2018 version of Baker.

DeValve is with the Panthers, after playing with the Jags last year.

We all saw the potential Baker had as a rookie. That certainly opens the door up to feel he has the ability to be a great NFL QB. I don't think anyone disagrees that Freddie certainly did him no favors last year in that offense.

But if one looks back to 2018, Baker was pretty much a one read QB rolling to his right almost exclusively when he perceived pressure. That makes for a very limited offense that can be diagnosed by NFL defenses pretty quickly. So to me that will be yet another ingredient in the big picture. Can Baker adjust and grow as a QB so the playbook can be expanded?

I'm certainly not going to predict that he can't. I have no way of knowing one way or the other. What I do know is that it is yet another question mark in the big picture of things.

Mayfield will be fine IF and the big word is IF he will listen to the coaches.

No hotdogging, no rolling right on a 3 step drop when the play doesn't call for it. The ball should be coming out as soon as the 3rd step hits the ground, Watch the Pats, they don't do that kinda dumb **** Mayfield is known for it.

Mayfield just needs to run the plays as designed, no improvising, or any of that stuff. He just needs to do his job, nothing more. If he does that, he will be fine.

He isn't athletic enough to be running around, he is slow, moving around like a crab, he needs to drop back in the pocket, and throw the ball, run the play as designed, no improvising. He does that? He will have a good year, if he won't listen and starts his rolling to the right and improvising nonsense, we will be lucky to win 6 games...thats what it boils down to.

Well said!

Geez, I love it when we talk winning. We may not be a total juggernaut with a flshbang offensive that can score abruptly, but we ought to be able to grind it up your tube on drives regularly.

Loved the assessment, bonefish! I wish we could get it going, say, oh, tomorrow?

Go, Browns!

Last years last year ...

WE HAVE EVEN MORE TALENT ... sky was the limit last year and it is this year also ...

I’m gonna go check out What are over/under on W‘s is ... very well may place a decent size chunk on that ...

Y’all can enjoy your battered browns syndrome and temper expectations and be all “i learned my lesson last year” ... I’m gonna enjoy myself and be optimistic based on the TALENT ON THIS ROSTER ...

Are u kidding me .. IF Bake don’t suck again .. we could score 40 a game ... do they take bets on pats per game average ... i hope so ...

We do have more talent than last year as well as better and more competent coaching, at least on paper. THIS year should be what last year was SUPPOSE to be!!

I’m no QB guru .. but I’ve heard that Baker’s success in year one had a lot to do with his one read and fire type mentality. Obviously teams will prepare and adjust ... so the question is, does he have it in him to be more than that?

Watch this with Mayfield.

We're going to run a ton of 12 personnel. Mayfield will be under center alot.

PLAY-ACTION PASSING

And Mayfield is DEADLY ACCURATE AT IT.

When we talk about the Browns run defense it becomes important to base it on actual production and not on what it looks like on paper. There's been a lot of opinion on here that the Browns run defense will be vastly improved if Vernon can stay healthy. There's also a misconception that missing Vernon and Garrett crippled the Browns run defense. The stats though tell a very different story.

Vernon and Garrett played the first 9 weeks together (including the week 7 Bye). First let's look at the record of the team while they played or didn't play:

Vernon & Garrett 2-6
Just Garrett 2-0
Just Vernon 0-2
Neither playing 2-2

If we just look at the run defense - the first 8 games in which they played together does not show the stout run defense of opinion here.

1st 8 games
230 attempts, 1130 yds allowed 141.25 yds per game, 4.91 yds per carry.

2nd 8 games
233 attempts, 1185 yds allowed, 148.12 yds per game, 5.085 yds per carry.

Only two teams allowed more yds per carry than the Browns 5.0 average in 2019 - Jaguars 5.1 and the Panthers 5.2.

It's no secret then that the bottom three teams averaged 5.67 wins in 2019. It's also a false norm that having a healthy Vernon and Garrett on the field vastly improves the Browns run defense since the actual stats would say otherwise.

The Browns were 4-2 without Vernon in the lineup and 2-8 when he played in 2019. The Browns were 4-6 with Garrett in the lineup and 2-4 without him playing. On paper, it would clearly appear that 15.5-million for a 1-year rental on Vernon would be a bad investment. Based on actual production, a healthy Vernon does not appear to improve the Browns run defense based on past results. Will 2020 be different, that's a huge risk the Browns are taking based on actual past production. HYPE OR NO HYPE?

I think this team could be really good this year, but I still have the three same questions as I did last year when you and I jousted on pre-season predictions.

--QB: I think folks overrated Baker's play in 2018. He did set the rookie TD record, but his seasonal stats [which I posted] were mostly in the middle of the pack or lower. Last year, his stats were near the bottom in most important categories. Thus, he is a big question mark. I am NOT saying he can't get it done. I think he has a chance, but if he is bad again, it will be hard to win.

--Coaching: Like last year, we have a first-time HC who has limited experience as a coordinator. It appears that he can't be as bad as Freddie, but we really have no idea if he can handle a locker room that has a lot of big personalities.

--Chemistry: Can this team overcome the culture of losing or will they fold when things get tough. They folded last year when things did not go their way. It's hard to overcome a losing culture and we don't have many vets who have experienced winning.


That all sounds negative, but I do think this team can win. We just have question marks in those three vitally important areas. I think if the first two improve, the third will automatically follow. If the first two struggle, I think the chemistry thing will be an issue----again.

Those numbers are quite surprising. I would have sworn I'd seen numbers to the contrary that clearly showed a significant drop-off when Vernon & Garrett were not in there. I think it needs context rather than just the overall team numbers which includes things they aren't responsible for.


I think perhaps those numbers should be weighted with some of them PFF stats that show the individual situational stats because I'm absolutely certain I've seen data that shows both Vernon and Garrett are good against the run (aside from feeling I saw it with my eyes).

Thats 100% a given unless Kev’s mind goes the way of Freddie’s who WAS NOT NEAR READY ... *L* ...

I expect Bake to have a big bounce back year ... he will be drafted late as my 2nd about in my fantasy drafts ...

I’m ready for this years jousting ... hope u are ... *L* ..

Can’t wait to see U and Clem on the Isle ...

I’m looking forward to our swim Clem ...

You touched on something that's going to be huge.
Lack of practicing together.
New coaches,new schemes,new o-line.
I would not be shocked if they started out 1-3,0-4.
Hopefully the wheels don't fall off and they can get it together before the halfway point.

It’s so hard to really predict in this crazy season. I think we have a 8-win, minimum, roster. I feel good about KSs offense. I think Wood bring a solid plan. We have a decent ST roster.

That said, I am cautiously hopeful.

Depending upon how abbreviated the offseason camps and such are, I'm going to root for the team and have some hope, but I'm cancelling all expectations. Teams that are established and have been together for a while have an edge in any normal year. That edge is more pronounced in an offseason like this one.

It takes a lot of reps and sweat to go from "on paper" to "on field", and depending on how things go, we might not get the reps.