DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... Sicario: Covid-19

My bad for not knowing.... What does 'probables' mean, exactly? I feel like this wasn't a term used before, but I have not been following day-to-day.

It means 'not tested', so not confirmed, but based on circumstances it is likely/probable that they died of COVID.

Awhile back the CDC started allowing Health Departments to report probable cases even though there was no testing performed, likely due to person's age, lack of underlying health issues.

For example, my step-sister is 41 y/o, healthy and no underlying issues, had recently (back in early March) attended an international business conference in FL.

She came home and couple weeks later was quite sick. She called her doctor, he did not order a test even though she met something like 12 of the 14 criteria for Covid-19. Tests were really limited at the time. The doctor told her he was reasonably certain she had the virus and to self-quarantine.

She would have been counted in the probable statistic, but not officially confirmed.

"She was a 'two-bagger."
"What's a 'two-bagger?"
"One for her, and one for you... in case hers falls off-"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20...ons-since-june/

14 states and Puerto Rico hit highest seven-day average of new coronavirus infections

As rates of coronavirus infections ease in places such as New York and Illinois and onetime hot spots move into new phases of reopening, parts of the country that had previously avoided being hit hard by the outbreak are now tallying record-high new infections.
Since the start of June, 14 states and Puerto Rico have recorded their highest-ever seven-day average of new coronavirus cases since the pandemic began, according to data tracked by The Washington Post: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.
If the pandemic’s first wave burned through dense metro hubs such as New York City, Chicago and Detroit, the highest percentages of new cases are coming from places with much smaller populations: Lincoln County, Ore., an area of less than 50,000, has averaged 20 new daily cases; the Bear River Health District in northern Utah has averaged 78 new cases a day in the past week, most of them tied to an outbreak at a meat processing plant in the small town of Hyrum.
The increase of coronavirus cases in counties with fewer than 60,000 people is part of the trend of new infections surging across the rural United States. Health experts worry those areas, already short of resources before the pandemic, will struggle to track new cases with the infrastructure that remains.
Stay safe and informed as the United States reopens with our free Coronavirus Updates newsletter

Adding to the disparity in health-care support, residents in states such as Mississippi, Florida and South Carolina are living under only minor-to-moderate restrictions — even as their average daily infection rate is rising.
The past two weeks of protests against police brutality will be yet another variable in how the virus spreads in the country. Protesters flooded the streets of major cities but gathered in small towns across the country, too. Though the widespread protests are a boon for the movement, health officials have warned about the impact so many people closely packed with one another could have on transmission rates.

As of Monday, at least 109,000 people in the United States have died of covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, with more than 1.95 million cases of the virus reported.

Let the rate of new cases be as high as it can be without hospitalizations reaching that overwhelming level for any given area.



It's interesting: the 1919 Spanish Flu had a WW1 parade that contributed to the overwhelming outbreak in Philly that year. We now had, basically, parades nationwide in the form of the protests. It will definitely be interesting to see just how much things spike in various cities in three weeks.

Interesting isn’t the word I’d use.
Tragic, I think will end up being more appropriate.

Hyperbolic, maybe.
I just read a timeline of the 1918 pandemic and, honestly, that one parade in Philly is just a blip and that thing moved plenty well without help. This one isn't remotely as fast-moving.

There will be an upswing, but it won't be Armageddon.

It won’t be hyperbole to those that lose family members.

Hyperbole in that it isn't remotely likely to compare to the 1918 parade impact.

I don't think we've seen the worst from this one yet, but I agree that it does not compare to what I've read about the 1918-1919 pandemic.

Completely agree.



Side story: a blurb from a friend who is currently a Commander in the Navy getting ready to deploy...

"So we get screened every day before going in building for fever, headache etc...

And yet today they give me a vaccine who’s side effects include fever, headache and muscle pain..."

J/C

So here is a story I have about my friends son getting COVID.

Details are told to me by third party, so don't hold me to them.

My Friends son, works for the county water department. A couple weeks ago, he was informed that a girl in one of the buildings was being quarantined because she traveled across state to Miami visit a friend, who (the friend in Miami) from what they were told, was quarantined because a family member tested positive.

The girl returned to work for 3 days before they found out and told her to quarantine at home. A couple days later she tested positive.

Since then almost 2 dozen other workers have tested positive. And my friends Son and his Fiancee have gotten sick this past week and tested positive over the weekend.

All because some fool decided to travel to a hot spot to visit someone they knew could be positive. You can't fix stupid.

My friends son and his fiance are doing well, mostly just flu like, but say they are OK otherwise.

Now, see, that is WAY, WAY more transmissible than the recent rhetoric has been suggesting.

Also, if it were always that transmissible, I would expect the general numbers to be FAR higher than they are.

Texas Reports Record-Breaking COVID-19 Hospitalizations As State Reopens

June 8, 202010:27 PM ET
Vanessa Romo


Texas reported a record-breaking number of COVID-19 hospitalizations Monday as the governor plans to reopen more businesses and double capacity.

Texas Department of State Health Services figures show 1,935 people were admitted as hospital patients for coronavirus-related treatment. That is up from a previous record of 1,888 on May 5.

The department's new figures were released as Gov. Greg Abbott moves forward with a plan to open bars, restaurants, amusement parks and other businesses to 50% capacity.

Abbott led most of the nation's governors in allowing Texas to lift statewide stay-at-home orders and urging businesses to reopen at limited capacity on May 1.

But even in states where officials left stringent restrictions in place, the number of newly diagnosed cases are rising. About 20 states, including California and Arizona, have also reported a rise in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, according to The New York Times. Meanwhile, state leaders have come under increasing pressure to restart the economy.

The pattern holds true worldwide. On Monday, the World Health Organization warned that the outbreak is worsening around the globe. The U.N. body said the world had recorded its highest daily jump of cases — 136,000. And the United States and Brazil continue to report the highest number of new cases on a daily basis with roughly 20,000 each.

By subscribing, you agree to NPR's terms of use and privacy policy. NPR may share your name and email address with your NPR station. See Details. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Meanwhile, virus experts and epidemiologists are concerned that the recent protests that have cascaded across the country since the killing of George Floyd on Memorial Day will lead to an unprecedented spike in coronavirus cases.

In Texas, the availability of intensive care beds and ventilators — 1,600 and 5,800 respectively — have been seen as markers of improvement and evidence that it is time to reopen the economy.

Some officials have stated that the increase in cases has more to do with the spread of testing. Some counties are now including prison testing results in their data, which is driving reporting rates up.

And the numbers are likely to continue to rise. On Monday, Abbott pledged to increase testing "in underserved and minority communities that have been disproportionately impacted by the virus."

Throughout Texas, more than 75,000 people have been infected and more than 1,800 others have died from COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins University.


https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus...UQbEcohTGFuOxQ0

Imagine there had been no quarantine this time. That's where those trying to compare the two fail miserably. Had we have not had a quarantine for Covid 19 this would have been a disaster that dwarfed 1918-1919.

I think we're still going to find out that's true. The hard way...

And Trump isn't even having contact with the coronavirus task force anymore.

I don't think so, at all.

This one is nowhere near as rapidly spreading as 1918, nor remotely as deadly. It would be bad, almost surely, but nowhere close to that level.

j/c...

Not sure if this scenario has been posted.....

If not.....

Was supposed to see my Doc tomorrow(my stent guy) and do a stress test. They cancelled. As per now, 2 days before my now rescheduled appt, I have to get Covid tested.

Stress test now rescheduled to a Wed a few weeks out and I need to get Covid tested the Mon before.

I have a procedure scheduled for the 16th and their policy is to get tested 4 days prior, so I have to get it on Friday.

Arizona cases trending up in a way that is alarming. State health director sent a letter to hospitals on June 6 to fully activate emergency plans.The state may need to take further action.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nati...ing/5332572002/

Yeah, it looks like they're making some pretty big jumps.

I'm curious as to what has happened there in the last few weeks... e.g. a giant party in Havasu??

Just read an article that said since the state open three weeks ago many people are going back to pre-pandemic routines-
Article also said that if the numbers keep going the way they are, they may half to reenact the stay at home policy

Also, around here in the Youngstown Warren area I had to go with my wife to three stores to pick up some items last weekend. I was so amazed at the people not wearing masks at the first store while we were waiting in the parking lot for stuff that I did a count of how many people at the other two stores were wearing a mask. So I took a little survey out of the last couple stores we went to and only 12 out of the 67 people were wearing a mask. And we drove through a parking lot of a couple restaurants and nobody walked out of any of the three restaurants had a mask on, the employees that were working carry out outside of two of the restaurants but no customers

And then there is a outdoor amphitheater in Warren that gets entertainment every weekend and originally supposed to shut down but now they’re thinking of opening partially for the summer. They had a Facebook topic today about if they should open and what they need to do or don’t do if they open. Most of the replies back including my sister were they were not gonna sit outside in hot weather with a mask on. And then replies just kept coming back to people why would we need to wear a mask anyways we don’t need to social distance anymore. It shouldn’t amaze me but sometimes it does.

That is the problem. I don't think opening things up is the major problem, some people take that as the coast is clear.

Dumb people is the problem.

Columbiana county = lots of folks wearing masks.

Mahoning county = lots of selfish folks not wearing masks.

In what state?
Surely, not Ohio. Our numbers are steadily in the green. I've seen absolutely nothing worrisome in our numbers. In fact, we keep improving. Our New Cases numbers are still steadily declining even after reopening. The deaths numbers are a bit more like a rollercoaster, but the peaks aren't getting worse.

There is literally nothing that I can see that backs the view that we may need to go back into lockdown.

Here's our data. Scroll down to the bar graphs that show the day-by-day numbers and tell me if anyone can see anything that says we're degrading since reopening.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/ohio/



Whomever wrote that article is just flinging poo.

Well, since YOU were talking about Arizona, I’m assuming that is the state he is talking about.

The hotter Southern states are heading into their moving indoors time of year.

Az is already 100 degrees.

How am I supposed to remember what *I'm* talking about??

Purp-I was talking about Arizona




Arizona's COVID-19 spread is 'alarming' and action is needed, experts warn
Rachel Leingang
Arizona Republic


PHOENIX – Experts around the country and in Arizona are raising alarms about the state's COVID-19 situation because cases and hospitalizations have increased for the past two weeks.

The increase in cases can't solely be attributed to increased testing in Arizona, experts say.

Instead, it looks like the state is trending upward in a way that is concerning and could need another stay-at-home order to curb the spread.

"I would go so far as to say alarming," said Dr. William Hanage, an epidemiology professor at Harvard University's T.H. Chan School of Public Health. "The only sort of crumb of comfort that I can find is that I think, in general, it's sort of easier to social distance in Arizona than it is in some places."


U.S. coronavirus map:Keep track of the numbers across the country and in your state

If trajectory continues, state 'may need to gear up for increasing action'
Arizona's largest hospital system warned over the past week that its intensive care units are filling up, ventilator use was on the rise and capacity was reached for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation treatment.

"We have seen a steady climb of COVID-19 cases in Arizona over the last two weeks," Banner Health tweeted Monday. "This trend is concerning to us, and also correlates with a rise in cases that we are seeing in our hospital ICUs."


The state health director sent a letter on June 6 to hospitals urging them to "fully activate" their emergency plans.

But Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and Dr. Cara Christ, the director of the Arizona Department of Health Services, said last week that the rise in cases was expected as Arizona started reopening.

Ducey's office has repeatedly pointed to an increase in testing as the cause of case numbers increasing.


Jessica Rigler, the state health department's assistant director, said the department is trying to spread the message that people can take precautions such as wearing a mask in public and staying home while sick.

"We don't want people to be in crisis mode, thinking that everything is all bad in Arizona with the cases," Rigler said. "We are certainly monitoring what's going on and trying to ensure that people understand where we are with COVID-19 in our communities."




Dr. Kacey Ernst, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Arizona, said all signs seem to point to the increasing transmission of the disease. Increased testing could explain increased cases, but not increased hospitalizations, she said. Arizona does appear to be increasing more than other states, she said.

The situation is “very concerning,” she said.

“If we continue on this trajectory and it is not just due to one or two localized outbreaks, then we may need to gear up for increasing action,” Ernst said in an email. “The director of ADHS has declared all hospitals should activate their emergency plans. That should tell us all something.”


Ducey spokesman Patrick Ptak said the governor’s office is working with public health officials and community leaders to provide more guidance on reopening, “ensuring businesses return smarter and work to mitigate the spread.”

Ptak said in an email that the increase in cases was anticipated, and the state is working on ways to increase hospital capacity. The old St. Luke’s hospital is “ready for activation” though not yet needed, he said.

Ptak also pointed to increased testing as a reason cases are increasing, saying testing has doubled since the stay at home order ended May 15.


What national experts see
Across the country, health experts have taken notice of Arizona's trajectory.

"There are 3 state warnings worth issuing today for COVID," Andy Slavitt, a former administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services under President Barack Obama, tweeted Tuesday. "Not panic, but time to consider actions."

Arizona was on the list, along with Arkansas and Utah.

Youyang Gu, a data scientist who created covid19-projections.com, posted a map of how states' cases are changing, considering both population and the rate of increase, he wrote on Twitter.


In that map, Arizona appears bright red, earning the worst score for COVID-19 case changes. Positive scores on the map mean cases are decreasing. States that had early outbreaks, including New York and Michigan, now have positive scores on the map.

Arizona scored -100, the lowest in the country.

Other models projecting the spread of COVID-19 have adjusted their estimates upward for Arizona.

A model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington showed in mid-May that Arizona would reach about 2,900 deaths from the disease by August 4. It now predicts more than 4,400 by that date.

During New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's COVID-19 briefing June 8, he said Arizona and a few other states offered a "cautionary tale."


With an increase like Arizona is seeing, the state needs to be thinking about how to slow the disease down, Hanage said. Reopening does the opposite because transmission occurs when people come into contact with others, he said.

If states wait too long to act, they're "sitting on a kind of powder keg of transmission chains," Hanage said.



What are numbers showing?
Most indicators in Arizona show an increase in the disease's spread that goes beyond just increased testing, experts say. For example, since the day after the stay-at-home order expired May 16 to Tuesday, cases increased by 108% while testing increased by 100%.


Last week, several days saw more than 1,000 newly reported cases. Prior to the past week's dramatic case increases, new cases reported daily have typically been several hundreds daily.

Hospitalizations have steadily risen. Statewide hospitalizations as of Sunday were at 1,266 inpatients in Arizona with suspected and confirmed COVID-19, which was the second-highest number, behind Friday, since the state began reporting the data on April 9. The past eight days have seen inpatient hospitalizations statewide for suspected and confirmed COVID-19 eclipse 1,000.

The percentage of positive tests per week increased from 5% a month ago to 6% three weeks ago to 9% two weeks ago, and 12% last week.

With increasing testing, the percent of positive tests out of all tests would ideally decrease, Hanage said.

Who is being tested, particularly if there are efforts to test those in congregate settings such as nursing homes, can affect this percentage, Hanage said.



Statewide, Arizona didn't see a decrease in COVID-19 at any point, said Dr. Joe Gerald, an associate professor at UA's Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health. Some places did begin to plateau or level off, he said. But since social distancing restrictions were lifted in early- to mid-May, the disease has taken off, he said.

"When you put these pieces together, they're really worrisome signs that the outbreak has really gained speed and momentum again," Gerald said. "And if we don't do something to turn it around fairly quickly, we could be in real trouble come early July."


Gerald said it looks like, if trends continue, hospital capacity could reach its limit by early July, which could mean trouble for providing high-quality care to people who need it.

What could stop the trend?
It's clear now to experts that the state is in a concerning position. But acting immediately to take measures to curb the spread won't have an immediate effect on case increases because people are already infected and spreading it to their close contacts, they said.

Hanage said if he were advising the governor, he would say the least that can be done is to halt reopening and see if the increase continues.

"Even if you were to be able to take pretty effective measures now, you'd still be having a month or so of difficulty with cases at least this level, if not somewhat more," Hanage said.

Still, experts say the state needs to act quickly to get the situation under control.

The public needs to continue following public health recommendations, such as physically distancing, wearing masks and washing hands, Ernst, of the University of Arizona, said. It's also important for state leaders to follow these guidelines, she said.

Ducey, for instance, has not worn a mask in public and has been pictured at meetings indoors with groups of unmasked people.

"There needs to be a cultural shift," Ernst said. "So many people still aren’t wearing masks. But people see leaders not taking these precautions and they hear the state is open and they let their guard down. Psychologically, it is hard to keep it going, but it is critical. This will get closer to home to people as more get sick."


Gerald said it's hard to see how the state could avoid another shutdown at the rate cases and hospitalizations are increasing right now.

Will Humble, the executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association, detailed in a blog post several steps the state should take now to stem cases. Those include focusing on testing and infection control in nursing homes, enhancing contact tracing, allowing cities to put their own mitigation strategies in place and requiring people to wear cloth masks in public.

Those steps could make it so the state doesn't have to institute another stay at home order, Humble said.

"If we don't do anything, we're just going to drive off a cliff," Humble said.

We do most of our farm/Amish market shopping in Columbiana County and do our pickup at the Walmart in Salem. The last time I went to Wally world with my wife-I don't think that in the 10-15 minutes we were there and the ride around the parking lot we counted 10 people wearing a mask.

I wanted to go down to Rogers last Friday to see if anyone was wearing a mask at the flea market-My kids told me if I went there I would have to sleep outside. They don't wear deodorant there, they surely aren't going to wear a mask

Now is the time for diligence. Those that disregard their own safety are deeply disregarding ours.
Stay safe everyone. Mask up.

but, for the love of all that is Good in this world... DON'T be the person wearing a mask while driving alone in your car!

Don't Be That Person.

j/c

Coronavirus Infections Are On The Rise In 21 U.S. States, With Cases Spiking In California, Arizona And North Carolina

KEY FACTS

21 states have had recent growth in newly reported cases over the past 14 days, per the Times statistics, though it's important to note that the increase is due in part to some states recently ramping up their testing capacity.

California reported its highest one-day increase in cases this past Friday, with 3,593 new cases confirmed.

The North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services reported the number of individuals hospitalized for Covid-19 reached a record high of 717 on Friday and was at 708 on Saturday.

In Arkansas, total coronavirus cases have increased by nearly 30% over just the past week.

The number of Covid-19 diagnoses in Arkansas increased by 450 on Saturday, the state's most significant one-day jump.

In Arizona, daily case counts have risen steadily since the end of May, with the highest single-day increase coming on June 5.

Per Newsweek, the former director of Arizona's health department, Will Humble, told Fox 10 Phoenix that the state's uptick in virus transmission was "predictable" because the state's stay-at-home order expired two weeks earlier.

Oregon health officials reported the state's highest single-day increase in Covid-19 cases on Sunday.

In addition to the states listed above, Utah, Kentucky, Texas, Michigan, Florida, Tennessee, Washington, South Carolina, Missouri, New Mexico, Idaho, Vermont, Hawaii, Alaska and Montana have all confirmed rising case counts over the past seven days. The overall numbers nationwide look relatively promising, as America's overall daily count of new coronavirus cases has declined steadily in recent weeks and the number of new deaths has continued to curve downward, but that is primarily due to progress in previous hot spots such as Illinois, New Jersey and New York.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2...a/#7339e0c76d5e

I did not post the article in its entirety. Only what I felt was pertinent information.

I don't think any place out there tracks daily testing numbers, but if they exist it would be good to overlay that with the New Cases numbers and get a daily ratio. I think this would help control for the increase in testing. Perhaps view both as a per capita to allow for comparisons between states, even.


Of course, hospitalizations controls for that as well, and it's a pretty absolute number.
Heck, it's almost not worth even paying attention to New Cases except to try to garner a picture of just how much of the population has had it.

j/c...

Wow.