DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Unity Without Accountability?

Now I know who is behind the Capt. Andrew Luck Twitter account who wrote all of those letters to his mom.

Your entire post is embellished BS.

LOL...ok if someone still supports trump after what all we’ve seen happen in DC now. After that...What should they be considered? I don’t care who you voted for but In my world if you still support trump after the attack on the capitol you are a traitor. Call me whatever you want. I don’t care.

That depends on who you're talking about. If you think there weren't elements of the crowd that stormed the Capital that didn't have a takeover in mind, or who didn't have the desire to kill our elected officials, I believe you are sadly mistaken. They even told us that.

The problem was that Trump's words caused many people that did not have such intent in their hearts to join in. As such it ended up being more of a rag tag bunch of half cocked militants without direction and guidance. At that point it created nothing but chaos.

There's a huge difference in what the intent was verses having the strategy in place to pull it off.

You're spot on on that part. I was responding to the 25% part. The portion that stormed the Capitol or supported the coup make up a VERY small minority of Trump supporters.

Then why did those who had that conviction just leave? I mean, I understand why those who just got caught up in the moment left once the rush wore off and they realized what they were actually doing..

But the ones who were there in a planned fashion to kill and take control.. why did they leave? How many of them went down for the cause? How many shots were exchanged between them and police? What efforts were made to find the politicians hiding in the building?

Sometimes you don't go making war when so many who believe as you do get in the line of fire. Even people with that intent aren't going to take out what they see as people who agree with them yet aren't joining them in an insurrection.

The friendly fire casualties would have been massive. Nobody with a brain would do that and think it wouldn't harm their own cause beyond repair.

Looks like my 25% is the low end of matrix for republicans and trump supporters alike.

It also looks like it's pretty much worthless. Do you not see the footnote at the bottom?

60% to 50% is 3-4 standard deviations?

They amount of people that they poll can be as little as 836 people.

People tend to share information that best represents their views. On both sides. It's more about perception than accuracy.

j/c

In 1924 Hitler attempted a coup of the German government. By their standards, he was treated with a light sentence of five years of which he only served one year of. During his time in prison, he wrote Mein Kampf.

The rest is history as they say.

In 2021 we have a president who invoked his followers and incited them to the point of attempting coup. The answer of his political party? "We must move on".

Yes - that is how statistics works?

If you have a fair sample, the polling error on 836 people is sqrt(836)/836 = 0.034 -- so the poll is accurate to about 3.4%.

The key, of course, is the phrase "fair sample" -- but this is a systematic error that is not dependent on the number of people that you poll, but is based on your ability to find the "average American". Increasing your sample size does nothing to help with this -- and repeated studies suggest that this error also tends to be in the 3-4% level in individual polls.

Long story short -- 836 people is plenty to reduce the statistical error below the level of the systematic error. After ~1000 people, adding more people doesn't necessarily make the poll any better.

I fixed that.

Hitler had 2000 men and planned to seize the city and keep it.

This coup seized the Capitol and gave it back and went home.

But congrats on invoking Hitler.

How is that very different?

+ Both events started when the leader of the group (Hitler/Trump) held a rally and then told the protestors to march on a government building.

+ There were more than 2000 people who marched on the capitol, there were 2000 people involved in the Beer Hall Putsch.

+ Several hundred are thought to have entered the capitol, and police are noting several hundred violent protestors.

+ Both events lasted about 4 hours.

+ Both events ended when a significant larger defensive force moved in and pushed out the remaining insurgents.

+ The vast majority of both groups walked home.

+ The defense of both events (from those who said not to overreact) was that the events were so poorly planned and executed that they had no chance of success -- making it reasonable to not come down on the attackers that hard.

Beer Hall Putsch:
16 Nazi's and 4 Officers Dead

Capitol Hall Attack
4 Rioters and 1 Officer Dead.

There are a lot of events that occurred like this that are not the Nazis, but these aren't crazily different events.

What is this and what does it mean?

https://www.state.gov/biographies/donald-j-trump/

Did Trump resign or did they do the 25th?

Just saw that - but it continues refreshing and updating...

It looks like some programmer took "until present" -- and made it a web-page that constantly updates to the present time.

EDIT: I refreshed again and then it went back 10 minutes. Both times in GMT -- I would guess programming error.

In the words Foster the People “Call it what you want”

Wikipedia lists the brief siege under “coups and coup attempts”. It’s the last entry. You have to scroll down a bit.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts

https://www.state.gov/biographies/michael-r-pence/

I'm simply pointing out a similarity and a lack of expecting accountability.

The things Trump has done do not rise to and pale in comparison the level of Hitler. But many of the tactics they used and the cult following they attained by using tactics do have a great degree of similarities. But then despite your apparent objections, you know this already.

Undermining the press to the point of creating an environment where your supporters listen to you and those who agree with you and consider anything to the contrary a lie.

Painting people of different races and political beliefs as the enemy of your nation and way of life.

I could go on but you know damned good and well it's true.

I understand the statistics. But one of the first things they tell you is that final selection of the sample size should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis (and you mentioned this in your post...).

74 million people voted Republican in the last election, and you're going to tell me with a straight face that less than 1000 polled is definitely going to give an accurate representation of the population? I don't buy it.

Ok, credit where it's due. I lol'd.

Yes? I don't think you understand statistics, because the point I made is just a mathematical fact.

I just wonder how Mike Pence feels about seeing the gallows with a noose.

And the chants to hang him.

There were just so many things wrong about the whole day.

We can discuss the proper term, coup, insurrection, riot, sedition..

A sprinkling of craziness for sure, we have been wondering how far it would go, well we found out.

It’s ended.

That's not Officer Sicknick in that particular photo.

I do, as application of statistics is a large part of my job. My second post is about the difference between simply understanding stats and application. Just mindlessly using the number that's spit out from the equation can frequently get you into trouble.

So again... if you are confident that less than 1k sample can consistently give adequate coverage of the entire population... well, I just don't think common sense would agree.

You are wasting your time DC.

The lines are drawn and there probably isn't any going back. I wonder how long it takes for Harris to call for the 25th on President Biden?

How many other conspiracy theories have they warped your brain into believing Peen?

And are you actually denying that there aren't fair comparisons between Trump and Hitler?

Did Hitler not blame the Jews on the ills of their society just like Trump did with immigrants?

Did he not install only people within government that would never question or oppose him no matter how crazy the things he said were? Do you have any idea how many people has fired since he was elected to accomplish the very same thing?

Did Hitler not accuse the press and anyone that disagreed with him as not being patriotic and being the enemy of their country? That anything they told the people was a lie? Creating a situation by which his followers would only listen to him and ignore anything and everything else anyone said?

You see, Trump can't open concentration camps and gas millions of people. He can't just unilaterally go to war and try to takeover the world.

But if you disagree with how some of the tactics he used to form a cult like status do not mirror some of the very same tactics Hitler used, bring something to the table. Try and dispute it. because as much as you hate to hear it, you know damned well it's true.

Do yourself a favor and read The Dictators Handbook. I mean if you wish to learn where the tactics Trump used actually came from rather than ignore the truth and live in denial

There's a playbook written based on the history of how dictatorships have been installed. How these tactics have been used to destroy Republics and Democracies in the past. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Rather than learn those lessons you would rather ignore them and pretend there wasn't a roadmap for what we're seeing now. There most certainly is.

Trump has been using it and millions of Americans have fallen for it.

There are lot's of comparisons between Hitler and Trump. They are factual. It doesn't mean Trump is Hitler, doesn't mean he has the same agenda ... but the manipulation and how he uses some similar tactics is 100% accurate. To bury your head in the sand and just discount that is ignorance.

And that was exactly my point. They aren't "the same". But many of the tactics they used to accomplish their goals are.

And as much as some people wish to dismiss it, we are currently traveling down a very dangerous road because of it. Our democracy is in danger. How far this will go is very much in question at this point.

OMG the lines are drawn/? You trump supporters crossed the line when you all attacked US in our house, and now Y’all claim the lines been drawn? rofl: Oh the humanity. Common sense flys away from you at light speed. Pffft trump supporters. Insurrectionists with their heads in the sand, all of em. I can’t wait to hear the next trump supporter’s conspiracy theory. As believable as trump.

We do have trump on record as saying he could shoot someone and not loose supporters. So we know for sure trump supporters don’t care what laws he breaks.

When he first said that I thought it sounded cray. The longer things have gone on the more I believe it to be true.