DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Russia looks ready to invade Ukraine

Russia has surrounded Ukraine on three sides. Here's where an invasion could be launched
By Rob Picheta and Eliza Mackintosh, CNN

Updated 10:12 AM ET, Sat February 12, 2022

(CNN)Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine's border in recent weeks, according to US estimates, raising fears from Western and Ukrainian intelligence officials that an invasion could be imminent.

As frantic diplomatic efforts are made to avert war, analysts are warning that Russia's military poses an immediate threat to Ukraine.
But if an invasion were to occur, it is not clear where it would begin. Russia has created pressure points on three sides of Ukraine -- in Crimea to the south, on the Russian side of the two countries' border, and in Belarus to the north.
Here are the three fronts Ukraine and the West are watching, and the recent Russian movements detected in each.
Eastern Ukraine
Most attention has been paid to the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have been in conflict since 2014.
The foremost assumption of those watching Russian movements is that Moscow could boost the military might it already possesses in the region, therefore making eastern Ukraine the easiest position from which to launch an invasion.
Satellite imagery obtained by CNN shows that a large base at Yelnya, which held Russian tanks, artillery and other armor, has been largely emptied, with the equipment apparently being moved much closer to the frontier in recent days.
Large amounts of weaponry were moved to the base late in 2021 before disappearing -- including some 700 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and ballistic missile launchers. Social media videos since show some of that equipment on trains and roads much further south in the Bryansk region, which is close to Ukraine. The armor and vehicles are identifiably from the same units that had pre-positioned at Yelnya.
Stephen Wood, senior director at satellite imagery company Maxar, told CNN: "It looks to me like a considerable amount of the vehicles [tanks, self-propelled artillery and other support vehicles] have departed from the northeastern vehicle park; additional armored vehicles departed from the more central vehicle park."
Meanwhile, heightened activity in the Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, which border northeastern Ukraine, has added to concerns.
"We are seeing a massive influx of vehicles and personnel in Kursk," Konrad Muzyka, an expert in tracking military movements with Rochan Consulting, warned on Twitter.
Phillip Karber of the Potomac Foundation in Washington, who has also studied Russian troop movements in detail, told CNN this month: "Russia's strongest offensive formation -- the First Guards Tank Army, which is normally stationed in the Moscow area -- has moved south 400 kilometers (250 miles) and is assembling in the optimum area for a rapid armored offensive on the Khursk-Kyiv invasion route."
Belarus

Concerns have also grown over a vast build-up of Russian troops in Belarus, a country closely allied to Moscow that could provide another way into Ukraine.
Russia and Belarus began 10 days of joint military drills on Thursday, the size and timing of which has sparked fears in the West.
Moscow's deployment into Belarus is believed to be its biggest there since the Cold War, with "an expected 30,000 combat troops, Spetsnaz special operation forces, fighter jets including SU-35, Iskander dual-capable missiles and S-400 air defense systems," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on February 3.
It is also the largest exercise the Belarusian armed forces have conducted at any time of year, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Russia's Ministry of Defense claimed the purpose of the drills, called "Allied Resolve-2022," included repelling "external aggression."
Maxar's satellite images show that for the first time several tent encampments have been created at Rechitsa, in the Gomel region of Belarus.
Maxar's satellite images show that for the first time several tent encampments have been created at Rechitsa, in the Gomel region of Belarus.
Some fear the build-up points to a Russian plan to surge towards Kyiv from the north. One European diplomat told CNN earlier this month that the massing of forces is a "big, big worry," noting this would be the missing piece that Moscow would need to launch a quick attack on the Ukrainian capital.
The joint drills would also provide cover for a flanking movement through Belarus and into northern Ukraine, CSIS warns.
And satellite images released by Maxar appear to show that Russia's military has advanced deployments at several locations in Belarus. The deployments are likely linked to the joint exercises, but other photographs show camps being established close to the border with Ukraine, hundreds of miles from where the exercises are taking place.
However, if Russia were to focus on the Belarusian border as its entry point to Ukraine, the route would be fraught with difficulties.
Russian soldiers would have to negotiate the Pinsk Marshes, also known as the Pripet Marshes, one of Europe's largest wetlands, which straddles the border between Belarus and Ukraine -- a dense, waterlogged and densely forested terrain stretching across 104,000 square miles.
That region impeded Nazi forces during Operation Barbarossa, Germany's doomed invasion of the Soviet Union, in 1941.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, "the marshes can be difficult, in some places likely impossible, for mechanized forces to traverse when wet."
Crimea

The peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 would provide a natural staging ground for any new operation, but it is unclear whether Moscow would attempt to launch a move into Ukraine from Crimea.

A large deployment of troops and equipment has been observed by Maxar, which assesses that more than 550 troop tents and hundreds of vehicles have arrived north of the Crimean capital, Simferopol.
Then a new deployment was identified by Maxar for the first time Thursday near the town of Slavne on the northwest coast of Crimea, including armored vehicles.
Those new deployments were observed on the same day that several Russian warships arrived in Sevastopol, Crimea's main port. The Russian Defense Ministry posted images Thursday of six large amphibious landing ships at the port.
Ukraine's Navy responded that "Russia continues to militarize the Black Sea Region, transferring additional landing ships to put pressure on Ukraine and the world."

Ukraine's naval forces "are ready for development of any scenarios and provocations, to defend the country from the sea," it added.
Any move into southern Ukraine could be aided by troops in Transnistria, the Russian-supported breakaway region of Moldova, where build-up has also been reported.
CSIS analysts say Russian troops could attempt a coup de main on Odessa, a Ukrainian port city the northwest of Crimea, by "sailing its amphibious ships straight into Odessa's port and moving directly into the city."

It calls such a move "a high gain but also a high-risk operation." Odessa is a well-populated city and urban combat there would favor those defending it, while Russian forces would need to eliminate Ukraine's air defenses and then link up with troops arriving from the east of the country.
CNN's Tim Lister, Gianluca Mezzofiore and Olga Voitovych contributed reporting.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/12/europe/russia-ukraine-invasion-paths-map-cmd-intl/index.html

US media seems to be rooting for this crap to happen.

When/if this happens, what should the U.S. do?
What should NATO do?
Is the Ukraine forces enough to hold off the Russians by themselves. There was a report from Kiev on Friday on NPR that said most people in Kiev are acting like its no big deal-they are still going out to eat and bars, not stocking up on food, no big deal.

Are we going to go through with what Biden said and stop Nord Stream? Europe is very dependent on Russia natural gas and oil. I saw Friday that if we cut off and restrict Russia oil and nat gas from hitting the market oil could be 125 a barrel within the next few weeks

What is China's stance on the invasion and who else enters the fray?

not gonna lie.

i wanna see what happens. Putin has been running his mouth for years. im sure NATO is prepared for this to be a big ass distraction for the real attack, or just more hissy fits by guys who need attention.

either way, its easy to defend US intervention in ukraine: americans protecting the sovereignty of independent countries from communism.

over and out.

I dont want any part of US involvement in this other than sanctions.

This is happening in Europe's backyard, so let them go handle it.

Even the Ukrainian president thinks the US is totally blowing this out of proportion.

Pew pew

This has been going on for a long time.

It is not a US media thing.

It is not a Biden over-reacting thing. As Bolton said the other day - if Trump had won in 2022 Russia would already be in Kiev. The UK has taken the lead in Europe - Germany has dragged their feet - though they are becoming firmer.

5+ years ago many were telling the world Putin was the biggest threat to world peace. He basically has a goal of destabilizing the western world any way he can. He's been very successful.

I heard the same NPR segment - I don't think we should take anything away from Ukraine having to come to terms with the threat of Russia for goodness knows how long. Lots of war ravaged locations around the world eventually have locals who have to simply get on with life in uncertain environments and under possible threats at any moment.

The Ukraine government is trying to prevent its people from going into a state of panic. Can't say I blame them. The way I see this probably won't be a popular view. Imagine that. I think we should tell western Europe that we will be a partner but not be the leaders in such a fight.

The governments most threatened and who have the most to lose are European countries. Not us. We are a member of NATO. Playing the world leader in stopping the threat of communism has cost a lot of young America lives. As a member of NATO I'm not opposed to matching equally what a nation such as Germany or Great Britain commits to such a war, but not more. We would contribute as much as one of the western European countries contribute.

Why should America feel obligated to contribute 80% of the war effort in troops or equipment to fight a war that is a much greater threat to other nations? So my opinion is to be an equal partner and not fund another war while only getting token help from the nations who stand the most to lose.

If NATO wants to do something about it, I think we should back them up.

We shouldn't even have to think about backing them or LEADING them in wars. The entire purpose of NATO is to protect each other against the rogues, radicals, and dictators of the world. After WWII, NATO was meant to be the "never again" for future the would be Hitlers, Mussolinis, and Herohitos of the world.

If you think about it, the US has been fighting Europes battles since, well forever. Who has the final say on US involvement the freakin queen of England?

Nobody puts 100,000 troops on a border that they don't plan to cross.

In a "tail that wags the dog" scenario, it would be real convenient to ask a war to bring Biden's approval numbers up.
That's what they have used to bring presidents' approval numbers up in the past.

I don't think this will improve his rating. America is burnt out on wars.

Sure.

Tell me - when did WWII actually start again?

And what was most of Europe's response to the second Iraq war and the "evidence" of WoMD ?

Putin needs to hurry up and invade. dude been running his mouth for years, picking on poor countries like Georgia and Kazakhstan, and spending russian money on his trash military and that piece of crap palace he got built in the middle of nowhere.

run it. do something already. you want the West to take you seriously, invade. you have that much confidence in your ideology and military, hurry it up. i already told wifey if WW3 pops off im joining if they dont block me for being 100% disabled. nothing is more glorious than fighting for a country to keep their independence against communist. bruh they make movies out of that. michael bay is gonna have narratives to direct film for decades.

i know yall civilians might not get it, but this isnt some middle easterns and religious nonsense. this is military vs military. for us vets and soldiers, it gets the blood pumping, man. i dont WANT us to go to war, but in this scenario, fighting commies? if a war pops off, im all in. screw them and anybody trying to defend russia and putin.


i dont want us to go to war....but if russia is the enemy, i cant pretend to be mad if they decide to invade and start a war. it just sucks cause im sure there wont be a war. countries like Russia constantly threaten to drop nuclear warheads because they know they dont stand a chance in an actual fight. Putin is gonna have to do something though if he actually wants all of Ukraine. the threat of nukes isnt enough to keep NATO from defending ukraine against Russian invasion. its only a deterrent to keep forces from pushing into Russia.

im so glad im not in charge of anything. if putin decides to invade, im not stopping at defending ukraine against russia and their allies invasion attempt. nope, gonna go ahead and put that soviet era nonsense in the dirt once and for all. not gonna destroy any pipelines, or civilian buildings or infrastructure. nope. gonna bomb the crap out of the kremlin, attack russian bases, bomb that piece of crap palace putin got built in the middle of nowhere, and leave. let the EU decide what to do with russia afterwards.

Seems once a new US president gets in these other problem countries do this everytime. I don't know whether it's supposed to be a test to see how much they can get away with or what.

I'd love to see Putin destroyed because his goal is to become the USSR again and stay relevant on the world stage. Someone in his own party should just take him out right now. I wonder who the Russian people would vote for if they had an honest election?

To Putin: All these shenanigans don't make Russia a top vacation spot.

i agree. iran, china, and especially russia do it every time no matter who the new president is. always gonna do something to test response/strength of the new administration.

i dont want to be that guy who goes "this time its different", but we have to take into account that Putin really believes Eastern Europe belongs to Russia, he's getting old, and wants to have a legacy that goes beyond dictator. he wants a new USSR standing by the time he goes.

Yeah I just realized he hits the big 7-0 this year. Probably having that 3/4 life crisis.

This is not some low rent middle eastern country. Russia has nukes. That is a reason to stay out of this.

World War II, from memory... started in 1936-1939 in Europe, with the desperate conditions in Germany and former Axis WWI powers after the after-effects of WWI circa 1915-1917+ left the post war treaty with those countries unable to meet basic needs. The US, entered WWII around the start of 1942 after the December 7th 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor, but probably had been financially supporting the allies in Europe before. The Axis, powers Germany and Japan, (Italy), were winning all major battles in 1941 and 1942 until a turning point in the outcomes started around the time of the battle of Midway in late 1942, (I'm not sure when that was, may have been in 43), in the Pacific. Depending on what battles, would equal the actual Start of WWII, I would consider it around 1939 with the overrun of France, as the time the Whole "world" started to join in.

j/c...

Strong and well-timed speech by Biden today. While he made another strong appeal for diplomacy, I like that he made things clear. He spelled out the fundamentals and dictated that certain fundamentals aren't negotiable. I also like that he spoke directly to the Russian people and spelled-out the human cost to all sides.

pretty sure i mentioned that.

i wonder if the legacy will last, whatever it may be. he doesnt have the iron grip on russia that Kim does in north korea.

100%

Putin cares more about his own ego and self centered legacy then he does the well being of the Russian citizens. Nothing he does would surprise me. To him, having a strong country, a good country where they treat their citizens right and are friendly to other nations and there's calm isn't enough, that's not what counts for him. Personally I think he wants to be remembered like Stalin, Lenin, etc.

I'd like to know what Putin is worth, really worth. I think, secretly, he may well be the richest man in the world. You know his wealth and power drive him, so you would think losing wealth and power would slow him down...

I don't worry about that. Everybody knows if we start popping those off, it's over. Now if some nut jihadis gets hold of one, I will worry because there isn't much of a response to a one and done attack.

As for Russia, screw the communists.

j/c:

thank god somebody on the right said it. you and TB seem to be the only dudes calling them out and not wanting to give in to their stupid ass demands.

people keep buying into the russian narrative that its about Ukraine joining NATO. you know how many countries we're tight with that isn't part of NATO? ukraine has a while before they would've met the requirements to join anyway. all thats been discussed is the process.

but thats the point. nobody gets to forcefully dictate their choice. We're not defending ukraine because of NATO membership; we're defending their sovereignty, their right to choose their own path.

if thats not the most red blooded american thing to do, then i must really be living in the wrong country.

But they already have a "police force" for that. That's NATO. We have responsibilities to NATO, but we should let them take the lead in European affairs. I'm tired of the US being the global police officer when there are other orgs already in place.

And that's my take. I'm all for us being a "part" of NATO. A "member" of NATO. But that doesn't mean it's our job to be burdened with 90% of the responsibility in both troops and funding. The most direct threat Russia poses by invading Ukraine is to western European nations. Poland would then be the only buffer between Russia and Germany. The nations who should be stepping up are the western European nations. I'm all for us doing "our part" to help our NATO allies in stopping Russia from encroaching on Ukraine. I'm not for us bearing the brunt of the fight.

Copied from FB… just some interesting information.

For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine matter?" This is why Ukraine matters: 🇺🇦

It is the second largest country in Europe by area and has a population of over 43 million persons - more than Poland by about 6 million.

Ukraine ranks:

1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)

Ukraine is an important agricultural country:

1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.

Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.

Ukraine is an important industrialised country:

1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

Ukraine matters. That is why its independence is important to the rest of the world. 🇺🇦

I agree. Sadly, I think our European partners have gotten used to lying on the couch while we do most of the dirty work. I disagreed with Trump a lot (I think that goes without saying), but I did agree with his office’s calling out the NATO allies for not meeting their end of the bargain.

I think Russia is aware of that, too. They have the gas deal with Germany. They know we are tiring of war. They also know Europe has gotten lazy when it comes to NATO (except for the former eastern block countries that are part of it).

Putin is like Lord Baelish looking to find an opportunity to exploit. We just need a European country or two to step in and actually be Sansa/Arya.

And that folks, is your game of thrones analogy for the day.

imagine being the country that created NATO, is the biggest influencer in NATO, and then when its time to flex muscle, go "tired of being a global police officer".

thats like the dude who marries his woman, has a whole family, then goes "aye....im not happy with this im out"

thats like England creating the EU only to bounce.

imagine a business owner not wanting to lead his own company.

what is it about you guys that you need somebody else to do the right thing before you do?

sorry, but im not with that. thats what makes the US who we are. we got flaws and don't always get it right, but we lead from the front. yea, we're the global police officers. lets also acknowledge the FACT that quite a few events happens that world leaders call the POTUS to help either broker an agreement or take direct action in a problem. its not always us sticking our noses in other peoples business. countries ASK for our help all the time.

i mean damn we're the global police force because we literally represent everyone around the world, like it or not. people come from all over the world to live here. OF COURSE we're gonna be massively involved in international conflicts.

that comes with the territory of being a melting pot. you can't sit there and enjoy top benefits and then complain about having to do top work. thats like a #1 overall QB crying about having to put the franchise on his back.

duuuuuuh. if you didnt have the potential to do that, you wouldn't have been drafted #1. the thing that comes with being a global power is having global responsibility. the fact that you even implied that somehow those two can be separated is very shocking.

like damn some of you guys actually hate the leadership position.

no wonder china is whooping our asses in economics. they're competition got B-type personalities.

No, it's like a group of nations wanting someone to fight their fight for them. Fund their fight and allow their young people to die for them. Every member of NATO is responsible for their fair share.

So it couldn't be because while they've been investing trillions in their economy and infrastructure over the past two plus decades we've been bogged down investing those trillions on war?

no way am i reading this right now. first off, y'all showing mad disrespect to other countries in NATO. lets not forget that we got 700 billion going toward the defense budget. there are very few countries who will ever APPEAR to match the mass of our military simply because of GDP.

yes, NATO is shared responsibilities, but the burden of our responsibilities is most certainly a fair trade compared to the many benefits that come with being the biggest force in NATO. yall acting like most of our allies arent trying to help.
.
maybe China should take the lead. thats cool with yall, right?

we've had the trillions to do both. the difference between China and America is that they committed their plans while we continue to half-ass ours.

some of yall sounding like Tucker Carlson right now.