DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

If the elected government of Canada were overthrown by foreign powers and a new government installed, then Quebec does not have to recognize that new government. This is the principle of self-determination.
That aside, I see it as more of an argument for pragmatism and having clear priorities. Right now, the top priorities of the players involved seems to be to gain control and power and to generate a public image of strength. The top priority should be on reducing needless bloodshed among both the Ukranian and Russian populations. Unfortunately, we cannot have both. If the priority is to stop bloodshed, then concessions need to be put on the table and the sooner, the better.

EXPLAINER: Does Putin’s alert change risk of nuclear war?

WASHINGTON (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s implied threat to turn the Ukraine war into a broader nuclear conflict presents President Joe Biden with choices rarely contemplated in the atomic age, including whether to raise the alert level of U.S. nuclear forces.

This turn of events is all the more remarkable for the fact that less than a year ago, Putin and Biden issued a statement at their Geneva summit that seemed more in keeping with the idea that the threat of nuclear war was a Cold War relic. “Nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” they agreed.

Putin on Sunday told his top defense and military officials to put nuclear forces in a “special regime of combat duty,” but it was not immediately clear how that might have changed the status of Russian nuclear forces, if at all. Russia, like the United States, keeps its land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, on a high state of readiness at all times, and it is believed that Russian submarine-based nuclear missiles, like America’s, are similarly postured.

Putin indicated he was responding to economic sanctions imposed by the United States and other Western nations in recent days for his invasion of Ukraine, as well as “aggressive statements regarding our country,” which he did not further explain.

The Biden administration was assessing Putin’s move, which it said unnecessarily escalates an already dangerous conflict. In fact, Putin’s words amount to the kind of threat rarely heard even during the Cold War period, when vastly larger nuclear arsenals of the United States and the former Soviet Union threatened the world with nuclear Armageddon.

HOW DOES THIS CHANGE THE RISK OF NUCLEAR WAR?

U.S. officials, while disturbed by Putin’s words, indicated they did not know what he intends. But it is so rare for an American or Russian leader to issue an implied nuclear threat, particularly in the current context of the war in Ukraine, that the risk of it going nuclear cannot be dismissed. In Russia, like in the United States, the president has sole authority to order a nuclear strike.

The United States and Russia have the two largest nuclear arsenals in the world, by far. They include weapons that can be delivered by aircraft, submarine and land-based ballistic missiles. The only time in history that nuclear weapons have been used in combat was when the United States twice bombed Japan in August 1945, and at that point the U.S. had a global monopoly on nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union successfully tested its first bomb in 1949.

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said Putin’s order to put his nuclear forces on higher alert was regrettable but not a complete surprise given his previous implied threats against any nation that tried to stop him in Ukraine.

“Inserting nuclear weapons into the Ukraine war equation at this point is extremely dangerous, and the United States, President Biden, and NATO must act with extreme restraint” and not respond in kind, Kimball said. “This is a very dangerous moment in this crisis, and we need to urge our leaders to walk back from the nuclear brink.”

WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO PUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON ALERT?

According to U.S. nuclear doctrine, the weapons’ alert level is central to their role in deterring attack. The idea is that being prepared to respond on short notice makes an enemy less likely to attack in the first place and risk retaliation that would do incalculable damage.

A counterargument is that having ICBMs, which the Pentagon calls the most responsive portion of its nuclear arsenal, on high alert during a crisis compresses a president’s decision-making room and leaves open the possibility of ordering them launched in response to a false alarm. The 400 deployed U.S. ICBMs are armed at all times.

Some arms control experts have argued for taking ICBMs off high alert by separating the missiles from their nuclear warheads. But in a crisis, perhaps like the one implied by Putin’s alert order Sunday, a decision to re-arm the missiles would be taken as an escalatory move that could make the crisis even worse.

During the Cold War, U.S. and Russian weapons were not only more numerous but also in a higher state of readiness. President George H.W. Bush in 1991 took the historic step of ordering U.S. nuclear-capable strategic bombers off alert as part of a broader move to reverse the nuclear arms race. The bombers have remained off alert ever since.

HOW HAS THE UNITED STATES RESPONDED TO PUTIN SO FAR?

There is no evidence that the Biden administration has reciprocated in any sense to Putin’s announcement that he was ordering his nuclear forces in a “special regime of combat duty” — perhaps in part because it was unclear what that means in practical terms.

Nor was there word from Washington of evidence that Putin had taken worrying steps such as loading nuclear weapons on all or a portion of Russia’s nuclear-capable air fleet or sending additional ballistic missile submarines to sea.

In addition to his strategic nuclear force, Putin has at least a couple thousand so-called nonstrategic nuclear weapons, such as shorter-range ballistic and cruise missiles. They are called nonstrategic because they cannot reach U.S. territory. But that is little comfort for the countries in Europe that are within range of those weapons. The United States has about 200 nonstrategic weapons in Europe; they are bombs that would be delivered by Europe-based aircraft.

For years, some U.S. officials have worried that Putin, if faced with the prospect of losing a war in Europe, might resort to the use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, thinking it would quickly bring the conflict to an end on his terms.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...-states-f58746ab66c61c6a9b474db2b402ba02

The whole world is pissed off and mad as hell at Putin. His people are protesting. Most of the world wants his head on a pike. He's filling his pants, because dictators that lose the people, die ugly…

j/c...

EU to purchase and deliver weapons to Ukraine in historic first
By Zachary Basu

The European Union will finance the purchase and delivery of $500 million worth weapons to Ukraine, marking the first time in the bloc's history that it will send arms to a country under attack.

Why it matters: Longstanding policy taboos are falling across the EU because of Vladimir Putin's unprovoked assault on Ukraine. The new weapons program, which will be funded through the European Peace Facility, was announced Sunday alongside new sanctions on Russian aircraft, state media and the Belarus economy.

The latest: The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said during the Q&A portion of a press conference that member states will provide fighter jets to Ukraine, not just ammunition.

"[Ukrainian Foreign] Minister Kuleba has been asking us that they need the kind of fighter jets that the Ukrainian army is able to operate. And we know what kind of planes, and some member states have these kind of planes," Borell said, in what's likely a reference to Soviet-era jets possessed by Eastern European countries. He did not immediately provide more details.

What they're saying: "I will today propose to use the European Peace Facility for two emergency assistance measures — to finance the supply of lethal material to the Ukrainian army, as well as urgently needed fuel, protective equipment and medical supplies," Borrell announced.

"President Zelensky's leadership and his bravery, and the resilience of the Ukrainian people, are outstanding and impressive. They are an inspiration for all of us," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, calling the new policy a "watershed moment." The news was met with celebration on official Ukrainian Telegram channels, which touted it as another sign that the Western world is united against Putin's aggression.

Driving the news: In addition to the centralized EU program, individual member states are taking their own steps to provide Ukraine with military aid and humanitarian assistance.

Germany, which had come under intense criticism for refusing to export weapons to Ukraine during the military buildup, reversed its position and said it would send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles to Ukraine.

Sweden, an EU member that is not in NATO and has historically maintained a neutral position in global conflicts, said it will send 5,000 anti-tank weapons, 5,000 helmets, 5,000 body shields and 135,000 field rations — as well as $50 million in funding directly to the Ukrainian military.

Belgium is sending an additional 3,000 machine guns and 200 anti-tank grenade launchers, Zelensky tweeted Sunday.

Hungary said it would not provide arms to Ukraine but committed to sending 100,000 liters of fuel and 28 tons of food, according to Ukrainian authorities.

The big picture: NATO said Sunday that Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, the U.K. and the U.S. "have already sent or are approving significant deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine."

https://www.axios.com/eu-weapons-ukraine-russia-invasion-331bfcbc-5193-47b0-8afb-03f194d95619.html

This 31 minute video is well worth watching.

I don't believe it has nailed everything or includes everything that's going on - but it is very informative on a lot of different context added beyond what I've seen discussed so far.

With a police booking.


You are not and shouldn't even try. Despise them, ridicule them, drive them back underground. Troglodytes.

Maybe you have the inside scoop - and the areas the separatists are fighting over is filled with Ukrainians loyal to Russia. That's not the message or feedback I have seen elsewhere. The video I just posted is pretty decent - it specifically highlights how those areas were created/coordinated by Russia - a tactic used in Georgia and Crimea previously. Sorry - I am not buying. jmo. Add to that - if you appease Putin which we have done in Crimea and Georgia - you see what happens.... there is a pattern. At some point just hand him everything he wants, or stand up to him. The concessions you talk of are 100% one sided.

No different than it was when the USSR collapsed.

I think Biden HAS done that, but not as much as Volodymyr Zelenskyy. I think his show of bravery and warrior spirit has inspired the people of the world. The leaders see people emotionally sympathizing with Ukraine en masse, and praising Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The governments see a tidal wave of democracy coming from the people of the world forcing them to stand up and do more. I know I will never forget Zelenskyy's response to the US offering to evacuate him and his family: “The fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride.”

The hacktivists are putting it on Putin. I love it.

but what about the war games? Russia had this in the bag! they were practicing against paper targets and NPCs the whole time. How is this possible?

This is a man with his hand out to the world for help, in an all but desperate situation. Yet his Twitter feed shows his humbleness, his appreciation, AND leadership in the way he acknowledges the assistance/support they are receiving, as they fight alone.

right wingers gotta be sick right now. all these years trashing NATO and calling Putin and Trump strong leaders, only for the exact opposite to happen. have Finland and other countries thinking about joining.

diversity and multiculturalism wins out again. how many times do these isolationist/far right bigots have to lose before they realize that the majority is never gonna go along with it? we dont live in a society where people have to beat their chest like gorillas, or one dude has to rule with an iron fist all the freaking time. If putin would've just been fine with the big ass country he already has, we wouldn't be here. but nope; endless ambition, delusional dreams of a reunited Soviet Bloc, my way or the highway, go it alone stubbornest has got waist deep in crap he can't climb out of.

for all the people who say they hate globalism, congrats. Putin just permanently screwed yall over. go ahead and find something else to believe in or whine about, cause that ship has sailed.

They had one small gaffe: they forgot to tell the guys on the frontline what the mission was.

I've been watching videos of the Russian POW's. These Russian soldiers all seem to be young kids, some of them crying. It makes me wonder if they're just sending in the least valuable, inexperienced troops in to see where the shots are coming from. It's hard to believe Putin is as ignorant as he's appearing so far. I love the way the rest of the world is uniting agaist this invasion.

I was wondering about something similar going on too when I saw an update about all the prisoners taken and kills Ukrainians made. But today I saw they took out a regiment of special forces. Took them all prisoner. That's crazy. Tough SOBs.

This is super troubling.

Nailed it.

That’s sad, man. I typically think myself a decent big picture guy when it comes to figuring things out, but I am completely confounded here. They send in these young kids without experience at the spearhead. Their logistics are garbage. However they wanted to be able to do this fast.

Also, Putin’s speeches seem disjointed and almost incoherent which is completely different than how I know him to be. This whole operation is outside the norm of how he operates.

Nothing here is following a tangible pattern and I for one am grasping for straws to figure out what in the actual flurken is going on here.

Exactly. You know, if I didn't know any better I'd call it a half ass attempt on purpose. It's very odd.

End of days? Putin's? The Worlds?

I think Putin is acting like a caged animal. His nuke threat today solidified my position.

Damn. This is how you run a propaganda war.

In chess, the pawns go first.

1 of 24... I'm going to post the other 23 as text paragraphs or this post will be miles long.

2/24 Terrific reporting continues from many sources on the Russian invasion. This includes @KofmanMichael @maxseddon @IAPonomarenko @RALee85 @shashj @DanLamothe @ikhurshudyan @McFaul @defenceHQ @thestudyofwar @OrlaGuerin among many others.

3/24 According to @danlamothe, the latest background briefing at the Pentagon described how Russia now has ‘about two-thirds of its combat power initially arrayed at the Ukrainian border in the fight’.

4/24 Additionally, Russia is ‘struggling with fuel and logistical issues’. Ukrainian airspace ‘remains contested’ with Ukrainian aircraft and air defense systems ‘degraded but still functional.’

5/24 According to other sources, the Russian defence ministry has ordered units to resume their offensive from all directions after a "pause" on Friday for possible negotiations with Ukraine.

6/24 We are at a critical juncture of the Russian campaign and the Ukrainian defence. Over the next 72 hours, we are likely to see a lethality race. The west will be racing to get more weapons and precision munitions into Ukraine.

7/24 Russia will be racing to achieve some form of tactical breakthrough. This has eluded them so far. Their tactical operations and influence campaign have failed to yield significant results. The most significant outcome has been hardening Ukrainian resolve & Western support.

8/24 As a result, we may see a step up in the level of ferocity and firepower from the Russian forces. As @kofmanmichael has noted, ‘we've seen a shift in Russian targeting towards critical civilian infrastructure, greater use of MLRS, and artillery in suburban areas.’

9/24 Combining this with the potential for urban operations in and around Kyiv and other cities, we may see a greater Russian tempo of operations and the commitment of more forces. These are brutal operations that absorb massive amounts of military personnel.

10/24 Urban operations are also difficult to coordinate, full of friction, & result in significant civilian casualties. This is heightened if civilians, using Molotov cocktails, are treated as combatants by Russians. More on urban operation at @antkingbruce & @spencerguard.

11/24 Therefore the coming days will probably see escalating violence, greater uncertainty and more civilian casualties.

12/24 Concurrently, there is the issue of the Russian offer of negotiations. My sense is that Russia is in a weaker position for such talks than they were last week before invasion. The Ukrainians have called the Russian bluff.

13/24 What can Russia ask for that it hasn’t been able to take by force?

14/24 The Russian call for negotiations may be a ploy to gain time. Russian diplomacy before the invasion was designed to coerce the Ukrainians as well as buy time.

15/24 The Russians may use negotiations to buy time to deploy additional ground forces from the periphery of Ukraine, as well as sending air, ground combat, air defence, artillery and other forces from more distant garrisons.

16/24 They may also use negotiations to give Russia time to step up industrial production to replace depleted stocks of precision weapons. And fix their logistics on the ground.

17/24 Also playing into the negotiations is that Putin probably knows (if he is being briefed accurately by advisors) that this isn’t going well, and he has to salvage his domestic position.

18/24 I need to mention the nuclear question. There has been a lot of reporting about Russia’s nuclear posture.

19/24 However, Russian doctrine and their normal practice is to mention nuclear weapons. While we can’t ignore this issue, we should not over-react. This is a useful precis from @RANDCorporation on Russian military doctrine and the role of nukes: http://shorturl.at/bghkC

20/24 Finally, there is a long way to go in this campaign. We should not discount a change in the Russian operational approach that might lead to greater success.

21/24 So far, they have been unimpressive. As @kofmanmichale writes, ‘the Russian op is a bizarre scheme, based on terrible political assumptions, with poor relationship to their training & capabilities.’

22/24 As they showed between 1st and 2nd Chechen wars, the Russians are capable of learning, adapting, and improving their tactics and operational approach.

23/24 But the Ukrainians are also learning. In war, as I note in #WarTransformed, this adaptation battle is constant. The side that adapts faster & better wins. So far, the Ukrainians are demonstrating more proficiency is this part of the profession of arms than the Russians.

24/24 My observations, part 4, ends. More tomorrow.

Yeah, but not if you want to win the game in 5 mins.

Wow…that can’t be real…can it???

Looks like Putin is losing his army's respect. That's a dire sign for a dictator. Gaddafi found that out the hard way on world TV. Died with a stick in his ass. Putin should be worried.

It isn’t over, so I guess anything can happen.

That being said, never underestimate delusions of grandeur. Sometimes it’s as simple as that; dude thought he had a master plan but miscalculated.

Even if you go with the simple strategy of throwing bodies just to see the counter, it doesn’t excuse the crap equipment he sent undertrained soldiers into combat with. Just from a game theory perspective, what he did wasn’t strategical. It was a complete waste of resources. Whatever ‘gains’ he has is completely negates by the loss of soldiers and the massive loss of resources on the back end.

I mean I feel dumb right now. I gave this dude way too much credit so far. I swear he was gonna open with a misdirect. Other than a basic cyber attack, he really did amass troops and then launched head first. Literally everybody saw that coming.

You don’t make such a dumbass move like that unless your level of arrogance is through the roof. He had to have been so sure that the EU, NATO, and the US would be so divided and so slow to react that he could just push over Ukraine in a few days and eat through the sanctions.

That’s why i said before just speaking from a pure combat standpoint, so far it’s disappointing. All that projection of strength for years, all this hype, all this villainous big bad wolf talk about Putin….and this is what we got?

Let’s be real here: I’d give those right wing crazies in the woods a fighting chance against the Russian military here in America. I mean damn bro, no allies? I can’t even count Belarus because I can’t even take that country seriously from the jump. Putin really went solo dolo on this. This really appears to be some sort of desperate heave to the end zone for Putin.

He doesn’t have the money, manpower, nor resources to occupy Ukraine for any extended period of time. He really needed the quickest win imaginable for anything to work, and so far it’s an absolute failure.

From the start, the way he tried to frame this invasion was a joke. He was a self fulfilling prophecy by literally hyping himself into a war. And now he’s threatening nuclear strikes AGAIN because that’s what desperate people in his position do when they’re cornered.

Sometimes it really is that people find a ways to play themselves. Basically any authoritarian figure ever. Putin was way too confident in his plan while simultaneously facing his own mortality and what his legacy will be.

Or more simply: this is what a country designed and ran by trump looks like. Completely incompetent, overbearing, and obsessed with perception over reality.