DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Russia cont.

man....im sorry but Al Qaeda and the Taliban put up better fight than this against the US. And now with the facts coming out that modern Russian jets are being shot down left and right, its no longer a mystery as to why Russia couldn't even get to the point of truly occupying Afghanistan. one could logically assume that Russia would've atleast learned a thing or two about urban warfare with the failures in afghanistan.

instead, its clear they learned absolutely nothing. again guys im talking from a pure military perspective here. but i promise you i'm not exaggerating when i say any american who's competent in strategy games would've created and executed a plan better than this trainwreck. Eve is familiar with game theory developing her app, and im serious why i say she could've atleast permanently taken some territory by now.

look, i understand the hesitation people have when it comes to calling Putin an idiot, but here's the counter to that: even if Putin is sending waves of the 'B-team' in to overwhelm the Ukrainians, he's playing himself because that sort of strategy requires your military to be all in.

the exact opposite is happening. russian soldiers are going AWOL, sabotaging their own equipment, and straight up surrendering at too big of a numbers to make this invasion quick. the strategy only works if all your people bought it, but thats clearly not the case. when you're killing off russian soldiers with no disregard to their lives, you dont get loyalty anymore. everything is now fear driven, but we've seen too many times in history where a military/people that is forced to act by fear will eventually turn on the guy in control. i thought the military at least respected Putin more than they feared him, but its clear its the other way around, atleast when it comes to this specific invasion.

all his big boy tech won't save him from embarrassment if there aren't soldiers to operate said toys. what good is your fleet of jets if all your support is either dead or AWOL? and now Putin no longer has the finances to sustain anything now.

the only path to victory he has now is to start using the big boy missiles and tech to start leveling everything in ukraine. but ofcourse that comes with the major consequence of giving complete moral high ground to NATO, allowing us to enter the war with the global community completely behind us.

and damn, he couldnt get one major ally of his to join in? the best he could get is Belarus?

say what we want about our military decisions the last 2-3 decades, but atleast we learn from our mistakes and evolve our strategies. might as well view all the footage of russian troops in black & white, because this is basically what the old soviet union looked like during the cold war.

damn guys, Putin is really out here getting embarrassed in 4K UHD. the war movies are gonna be lit for the next 20 years. Thanks, Putin!

j/c…

I know all the keyboard warriors have been harping on this since like day1, but this is a big deal. It's like playing competitive ice hockey, a big hit obviously hurts the guy on the receiving end, but it hurts the guy dishing it out, too. This is going to hurt.

Yes it will. And all those people crying Biden is soft are suddenly going to wail and say blame him for being tough.

Hopefully between the crippling, unified reaction of most of the world and perhaps China shifting position a little, maybe there will be an end in sight.

I hope they're being super strategic about this. Let the earlier sanctions get their hooks in, and then hit them with the haymaker. It would be great to be in a position to say, "you know what, screw it, we don't need your oil", but that is something that we had to say, in solidarity, like 10 years ago. I don't see us being able to cut off from it permanently.

It'd be nice to start advancing a policy of drawing down our overall reliance on oil (domestic and imported) over time in the name of sticking it to our adversaries.

good. people gonna whine about the gas price, but oh well. there's no such thing as defeating Russia without real skin in the game.

besides, massive investments into renewable energy to diversify our energy production will have a huge long term positive effect on our own economy. The US - and to a lesser extent the EU - needs to remember that relying heavily on one source of ANYTHING to power the economy is an unnecessary risk. it allows false narratives to be spread, such as thinking higher prices at the pump is worth bowing down to a dictator like Putin. Putin's top priorities have nothing to do with oil. it is simply a piece of leverage for him, nothing more. He clearly doesn't give a damn about that leverage because his goals have nothing to do money. This is straight ideological warfare for him. the point of the oil sanctions is to accelerate the economic pain OTHERS within the country have to endure in order to build up internal resistance.

from the domestic side, imma really need americans to grow a pair. this is a matter of inconvenience for us. people whining about gas prices might as well be whining about how long the starbucks lines are for all i care.

That's not true at all, and I think you know it. For many, yes, it's simply an inconvenience. Maybe I'll have to shift something around to account for extra gas $$. But for many more it's extra strain to a budget that can't take too much.

On top of the highest inflation in a half century (and still growing), supply chain issues at every corner and the economics of the entire planet in flux... at the tail end of a pandemic.

Quite the inconvenience.

j/c...

U.K. jumping on board as well.

And just think, only a week ago you were all for this.

The current group loudest about it are the dudes who bought pavement queens. I’m a truck guy, bro. I miss my Ram 1500 big horn.

But there gets to a point where you have to chalk things up to “you gotta to play”. I do not, and still don’t ‘need’ the Ram. I just like I don’t ‘need’ a X5M or M6.

I bought those because I love rides and I like to stunt. What credibility could I possibly have for whining about gas prices.

I’m clearly NOT talking to the people who actually use them as work trucks, or the people who did by fuel efficient and are getting screwed regardless. I feel them.

But once again, the people whining about the prices the loudest are the same ones who can most easily afford it. You know, like whining about fast food lines and cussing out flight attendants. Those loud voices also seem to parrot the pro-oil anti-Biden talking points.

I don’t need my rides. Nobody needs a 6 inch lift on a pavement queen. Clearly have money to burn, so the complaining has to stop. And then to do that on a base model truck is completely disrespectful to everything holy.

But I’m sure it’s just a coincidence, right oob?

The prices will go down like they always do. If the gas pump is a great tool to sow divisions in a country during a war, then I’d say Putin’s actual defense/counter move was to try and divide the US and EU internally, similar to what’s happening in Russia as we speak.

Only difference is we’re aloud to say let’s go Brandon. In Russia, we’d disappear…

The people who are impacted the most have a voice nobody really listens to. The poor.

He was hoping for those divisions to stay in place when he invaded.

I bet he didn’t expect it to grow simply because of oil. Imagine a country being that enslaved to an unsustainable recourse despite being the wealthiest country in the world.

But I guess Putin was right because what’s supposed to be minor leverage ended up being politically dividing.

And I say this because I’ve seen the propaganda in Iraq and Afghanistan work. From the Russian perspective, half the country is gonna roll with Putin simply because the message being sent is Americans are pressuring Biden not to get involved because of oil.

You have to remember that in that side of the planet, they tend to be disgusted with our values. And I don’t think enough of you guys realize how hard we get roasted overseas in general. Because of the trucks and excessive material lifestyles, to blatantly hypocrisy on the world stage, and the fact that we can be so easily manipulated.

Imagine how privileged someone has to be to whine about gas prices while people are literally at war fighting for the right to survive and keep their sovereignty. That’s America.

Still am... 100%

Just wouldn't equate it to an inconvenience comparable to standing in line at Starbucks. Not that the intent of my response, or the words themselves should ever get in the way of a good strawman.

Nice try though, A for effort.

I agree. But then too many people amongst that demographic don’t exercise the few rights they have. I know that life all too well. Even when I was coming up poor, my parents taught me to always vote. No matter what economic class, we all have an obligation to keep our foot up governments ass.

But not just with the poor, but with the middle class as well, too many people vote with their checkbook. While I understand why, that’s the wrong way to go to the voting booth.

Individually, I dislike the cops, don’t trust the government, love saving money like an old white dude, and think people need to mind their business. Just based on that, one could call me a conservative. But how choose to be doesn’t mean everyone should be like that. So I don’t vote based on my individual beliefs, I vote based on what’s good for the country as a whole. That’s why I can’t ever vote Republican, the gene in my DNA which allows me to act fake doesn’t exist. The more liberal the policies are, the more conservative I can live my lifestyle.

People of ANY demographic have a hard time understanding that.

j/c...

I get what you're saying about the loudest voices (whining) are the ones driving the bro-dozers from driveway to parking lot. My point was the voices you don't hear are the ones that we should be worrying about. Those are still there and their complaints are valid.

I think the reluctance to use this sanction points to some understanding of the blowback.

I think you're still dismissing the point. At what point will this impact those at the bottom of the working class so much they simply have to choose between gas and food? I'm not worried about me. Much as you said it isn't always what benefits you that dictates your vote, I'm very much the same. If I actually thought it would achieve the goal of hurting Putin in the long term, I would certainly be on board with it. But I don't believe that it will. Putin has been known to sell Russian oil at below market prices. And he's already been doing that. This from just two days ago....

Shell defends decision to buy discounted oil from Russia

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/06/shell-defends-decision-to-buy-discounted-oil-from-russia.html

I realize that will now stop. But you're a poster on here that looks at things from the world view. Something I wish more people on here would do. Russia sells oil to India, China and many other nations that are no way aligned with NATO. Everyone who thinks from any rational viewpoint knows this will drive crude prices even higher. Even the very idea this would happen has driven crude prices up like crazy over the past couple of weeks.

So does anyone actually believe that nations like China, India and other nations that aren't aligned with NATO won't buy up Russian oil at a discounted price? Oil has already gone up about 40 dollars a barrel since late February alone just on the possibility we would take such actions. That's another 40 dollars a barrel in Putin's pocket. Now that we are actually acting on it, those prices will only soar more. There won't be some world embargo on Russian oil. Someone will be buying it. And Putin will be getting more for it. In the end these actions will only serve to line the pockets of Putin even more.

I get it. It makes a great statement. It sounds very American on the surface. But the net results is we will be helping Putin as a net result. It's not the action in and of itself that concerns me. It's the net results of those actions.

Never called Biden soft, won't blame him for being tough....

Will question us meeting with Venezuela and Iran to get more oil to ease price increases (while lining the pockets of other dictators) when we have a fair amount of untapped capacity in the US that we aren't allowed to use. But still willing to listen to any reasonable explanation......

Less customers = less sales and I don't think that'll change with an embargo. Will he still have customers? Sure. Will those customers make up for loss of sales to US, UK, etc? Not a chance.

Especially after all the previous sanctions, this oil sanction is the haymaker. It'll be interesting to see how long Russia's economy can hang in there before the real pain/impact sets in.

I've seen entirely too many folks beat on Biden for not doing one thing or another then turn right around and beat on him for doing it...

If you say so. It seems everyone understands how capitalism works. Until they don't. China is the second biggest consumer of oil behind The United States. If your contention is that China will pay more for oil when given the option to pay less, we strongly disagree.

j/c...

No more Mickey D's! Coca Cola to cave next? I think the major corporations pulling out of Russia, temporarily or otherwise, will have as much impact as the sanctions.



Based on this thread, it seems the younger people in Russia understand that their economy has a real chance of collapsing.

I'm not beating on Biden for doing it. I understand why he's doing it. I understand the perception of it being a good thing. I understand that like all politicians it is a popular thing to do. I simply don't think the outcome will be a favorable one or achieve the intended consequences.

Putin's price hike?

Why not call it what it is? Rich capitalists using any excuse to make a buck.

I don't blame Biden for the rising gas prices as far as his actions towards Russia. His decades inside a corrupt and self-serving political apparatus is a different question, though.

Biden's M.O. has always been to go whichever way the wind/money/personal voter base blows.

How can I make my rich buddies money and make myself look good? Blame Russia!

I hate the gullibility/ignorance of the average American such that it results in our political system looking as it does. It seems to be based entirely on finding someone "other" to blame. At least this time the other isn't just across the aisle. Still it's a rather sad state of affairs.

Lamenting about others understanding of capitalism and then ignoring a provider being cut off from the #1 consumer (in addition to others after #2)....

Not sure where you got "China will pay more for oil". It wasn't from any of my responses. China will do what's best for China. If they think it's in their best interests, they could buy up a little more oil to have as a surplus, but I just don't see how the rising prices will offset their loss in sales.

You just described damned near every politician in Washington D.C. Even in our state capitals for that matter. They cater to their base and corporate donors to retain power, all the while not really giving a damn about their actual constituents. That's what has gotten us to where we are now.

So you don't think the #2 user of oil on the globe will replace buying oil from more expensive sources to buying it from a cheaper source? Russia produces less than 12 million barrels a day. China uses 14 million barrels a day. And that's a single country. India uses almost 4.5 million barrels a day. I could go on but I think the math here is making my point pretty clear. There will be a market for all of Putin's oil.

except if oil was that big of a priority for the EU and US politically, Putin would've already exploited it, and we might be having a different conversation about Russia's allies backing the invasion into Ukraine.

that same India and China is completely tied to the EU and US economically speaking. you know what those two countries like more than ideology?

Cash Rules Everything Around Me

if Ukraine and the pro-oil narrative isn't enough for China to enter now, then them buying oil at a discounted price isn't worth the potential economic sanctions either. and even if India and China try to buy up oil on the cheap, Putin is gonna have a hard time actually being able to use the cash to help sustain the invasion.

the amount of cost - whether its human capital, logistics, occupying expenses, etc - is not gonna be covered by the profits of oil. about 70% of their oil is exported, and that accounts for about a fifth of their total GDP. thats just not something i would worry about, and im not an elected official or military general.

you have to also remember that while china is definitely riding the fence, them buying up oil from russia doesn't really hurt them politically in anyway. same with india. them buying oil from russia isn't a show of support, because as you pointed out, they ARENT part of NATO. its not their fight and they atleast have the illusion of "business as usual." China is gonna stay right there on the fence because they are literally surrounded by US allies. so i've always thought a chinese invasion into Taiwan was overhyped.

there's too many things going on right now that makes oil a real threat to the West. ESPECIALLY because just like that, we can purchase oil from other countries if we so choose, boost our oil production if necessary, and/or invest into renewable energy sources to diversify our energy sector. the EU have been finding ways to diversify for years now. its about wanting to, but its times like this where i have to remind myself and others that globally, americans are super spoiled and whine about being broke on our new iphones with 5G.

this is why i miss the American exceptionalism era. people understood the influence we had on the world and how we are the ones who lead from the front. instead we've been dragged down by this "what about such and such countries..."

like what about them? all the oil in the world wont help them or russia if the US and EU cut they asses off. at least we have enough allies across the world to sustain the downturn until new factories are built.

so i hope you understand bro, the oil narrative is overhyped by the media. if it was that big of a factor, who knows what these threads would actually look like. right now we're seeing the US EU turning up the heat. clearly we have ways to deal with the stress. we have to be aware that as americans, skin in the game is required to deal with ruthless dictators. whether its through military service, the gas pump, or anything else, there's always a cost associated with War.

and war during a still ACTIVE pandemic. this is why everything seems worse. i dont see this playing out 3-6 months, as far as active combat. that alone will ease the markets. then combine that with mask mandates loosening and people straight up not caring about COVID anymore, people getting back to the new normal will ease the prices further. then everybody with the 6 inch lift and the ballsack hanging off the tow hitch can go back to whining about CRT and BLM.

I can't find it easy to question meetings with anyone that has a chance to help us..

What I'd like to see is the big oil companies explain they HUGE profits they are making right now and have been for a while.

Look, I've owned my own business for years.. but never have I gouged anyone.

It largely depends on how many and who join us in buying from Russia. UK is a pretty good start, but Germany has said previously it won't (for obvious reasons). IIRC, Russia sells a LOT to Europe (in addition to China). Getting the EU to fall in line (again, UK is a good start to this) will go a long way to to reducing volume of sales. There's also the issue of price. Yes, price will spike on the news, but after that initial reaction, if enough countries shun Russian oil it will depress the price of oil from there.

The key here is demand (not so much price). We, with our allies, do have some control over the demand.

Once we have done all that we can do to help ourselves... if we have to reach out to others, even the likes of Venezuela... maybe.

Big oil companies never made bigger profits in their history than they did when Obama was President... the Trump years were much more modest... since early 2021, they are spiking again...

It's rather odd. There's are a lot Americans can do to "help themselves" be less dependent on foreign oil. They just decide not to. And it's not "drill baby drill!"

Swish.....

We watched our country talk tough about sanctions on China from 2016-2020. Since you brought up nations own self interest, there's no way we get into an economic war with China. That would be one of the most self destructive things we could do.

Oober......

Global demand doesn't change whether we buy oil from Russia or not. The globe will be using the same amount of oil. As such Russia's oil will still be in demand. Just by fewer nations. But I do agree that if more nations join us it will make it a little harder for Russia to reshuffle the cards and redirect their oil to other markets.

j/c...

Big news.

I'm not sure if this is the deal that cemented these actions but I'm quite sure we made se such deal with Poland for this to take place. this was reported 17 hours ago.

U.S. working with Poland on deal to send fighter jets to Ukraine

The war for control of Ukraine will be waged in the air, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told U.S. lawmakers Saturday, and therefore, he implored them to give him planes to keep Russia at bay. The U.S. is urging Poland and other Eastern European countries to give their Russian-made fighter jets to Ukraine and is working on a plan to backfill the planes they give up with U.S.F-16s.

One advantage of the Russian planes is that Ukrainian pilots are already trained to fly them.

The other reason is that these planes can be deployed far more quickly. One U.S. official said the administration has told Poland it should make Russian-made MiGs in its arsenal available because these planes would not require U.S. permission to be transferred. Conversely, any effort to send newly manufactured planes to Ukraine could be hampered by several years' worth of paperwork with defense contractors. Further, the transfer of American-made F-16 fighter jets from NATO allies would require congressional notification. Because Ukrainian pilots are not trained on American planes, the fighter jets would not be immediately helpful to them, even if they were able to obtain them sooner.

Poland has 21 single-seat MiG-29s and 6 twin-seat MiG-29s, according to Janes World Air Forces.

Although Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the U.S. would give the go-ahead to the transfer of the planes to Ukraine and is already talking with Poland about backfilling its aircraft inventory, Poland has not yet decided to move ahead with the transfers. In a tweet over the weekend, the chancellery of the Polish prime minister called a story stating that Poland would give Ukraine MiG-29s in exchange for U.S.-made F-16s was "fake news."

And whether Poland would turn over its entire inventory of these planes — or even whether they're all in working condition — isn't clear yet, either.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that while the U.S. is working with Poland and other NATO allies on this issue, "this is Poland's sovereign decision to make."

She noted the logistical challenges of physically transferring the planes from Poland to Ukraine. "Are they going to fly? Where will they depart from? Where will they land? Those are all very important questions here," Psaki said during the daily White House press briefing.

Psaki also said that there are complicated logistics for backfilling planes for European allies that send jets to Ukraine, "because procuring new planes and transferring serious weapons systems often take years to do from the United States."

Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discussed the source of Poland's hesitation with CBS News.

"That's not a logistical issue. That's a political issue. It's a political issue in the sense that, if you have a Polish aircraft and you put a Ukrainian pilot in there, and that pilot then flies the aircraft into Ukraine to fight the Russians, the Russians can plausibly argue that Poland has now become a co-belligerent, since it's launching aircraft from its soil into Ukraine," Cancian said. "So the Poles are very, very nervous about that and want to be very careful that this does not make them vulnerable to Russian counter-actions."

Ultimately, Cancian believes that Poland will agree to a deal "for two reasons. One is that there's so much desire to help the Ukrainians. And the second thing is, if Poland can get rid of old Soviet aircraft and get new American F-16s, that's a good deal. They want to do that. Between those two, I think they'll figure something out."

Cancian noted one criticism about this plan is that these aircraft are vulnerable. "They may not end up making as much difference as we hope. If we fly them into Ukraine and the Russians take them out the next day with long-range missiles, what have we accomplished?" But he noted that "at this point, there's also an element of symbolism to it. There is a real capability there, but there's also an element of symbolism."

After Zelensky spoke with Congress, Senators Rob Portman and Jeanne Shaheen sent a letter to President Biden urging him to send American-made aircraft to European allies who supply Ukraine with Soviet-era planes. They identified Poland, Bulgaria and Slovakia as countries having discussions with the U.S.about transferring part of their inventory to the Ukrainian Air Force.

The Biden administration has asked that $10 billion in additional support for Ukraine be included in a broad government funding package expected to pass in Congress this week.

In a letter on Monday to lawmakers obtained by CBS News, Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova laid out Ukraine's requests for the legislation, which included taking appropriate steps to provide Ukraine with aircraft and defense systems.

A U.S. official said Monday that the airspace over Ukraine remains contested, and the Pentagon assesses that the Ukrainians still have a majority of their fixed wing aircraft available.

The Ukrainians have stalled the Russians in their advances on key population centers, but as the days go on, the Russians have struck targets with no regard for civilian infrastructure.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fighter-jets-ukraine-poland-deal/

It appears a lot has changed over the past 17 hours.

I despise the mention of American exceptionalism. It is the type of arrogant self grandizing that causes problems because we thing that we are better than others.

Be humble, be confident in the success of the past, but don’t think for one minute you are better than anyone else.

We have problems too.

Yeah it’s definitely looking like Russia pulled a Leroy Jenkins from China’s perspective.