DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Berry's Drafts

Good points Hammer, one and all. They all make mistakes and they all make some good moves.

I've never really been that black and white about Dorsey other than to say he made some large blunders - but when you look at it like that and the way Hammer spelled it out, hard to argue. He had a T-O-N of draft capital to use. Not much to show no matter how much I love Chubb.

PFF explanation on how they arrive at QB grades....

How PFF grades quarterback play

The PFF grading system is all about isolating the quarterback’s performance on a given play. We bring context to every throw, with a focus on timing, decision-making, accuracy and much more. Raw passing stats are often a gauge of the passing offense, and pass defense, as a whole, the PFF system is measuring the quarterback’s contribution to that production.

The play-by-play grading ranges from +2 throws, which are extremely rare to -2 throws, which consist of the most egregious decisions.

Positively graded plays:

Accuracy and decision-making are all baked into the play-by-play grading, with positive grades being earned on passes that lead to first downs and more.

The system accounts for the timing and difficulty of the throw, while also gauging the decision-making with respect to the quarterback’s progression on a given play.

The better the throw, the higher the grade, and passes that earn a +1.0 or better are considered big-time throws.

The key to remember is that the result of the play doesn’t change the quarterback's grade, so pinpoint downfield passes that are dropped will still earn the same grade despite showing up as 0-for-1 in the boxscore.

Big-time throws have different levels of credit as the passes are thrown further down the field or the windows are tightened.

Negatively graded plays

Passes that are missed, or ones that essentially ensure an incompletion, will earn a negative grade.

Passes that are graded as -1.0 or worse will receive the “turnover-worthy label” as interceptions occur on about 50% of such throws, and that percentage rises as the grade lowers.

Of course, just like the positively-graded plays, we are evaluating each throw individually and the result will not change the grade. The worst throws that result in dropped interceptions will still receive a harsh downgrade.

Same Play, different results

That brings us to the scenario in which two quarterbacks make a similar throw, but with entirely different results. There may be no better example than the NFC Divisional Playoffs last season that saw Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky make near-identical poor throws into the end zone, one of which was intercepted and one of which was dropped.

Both throws received harsh downgrades despite one getting intercepted and crushing Foles’ boxscore stats, while Trubisky’s merely resulted in an incompletion.

Expected Plays

There are many throws which fall into the “expected” category, and they will fall into the 0-graded category. Screen passes are a good example of this as we expect NFL quarterbacks to throw these passes with timing and accuracy. As always, the result of the play does not change the grade for the quarterback, whether the pass is taken for a touchdown or stopped for a two-yard gain.

A wide receiver may break a tackle for a touchdown on a quick out against off coverage or he may be tackled short of the end zone, but it’s essentially the same throw by the quarterback.

There are many plays in which the result of the play is purely down to the receiver making a play against the defender, and we are sure to isolate the QB’s grade away from the result.

A 50-50 jump ball is often down to WR/CB interaction, so the difference in a completion or an incompletion, will not change the QB’s grade.

The QB’s role in pass protection

We also take seriously the QB’s role in mitigating the pass-rush. We will downgrade QB’s for holding the ball too long and taking unnecessary sacks.

When it comes to fumbles, they are not all created equally. Some fumbles are almost impossible to avoid for a quarterback, and they will earn a 0 grade. However, the fumbles that are clearly the result of poor ball security will get a harsh downgrade, and that grade will remain the same regardless of which team recovers the ball.

The PFF grading system isolates the quarterback’s play in a unique way, and it has proven to be both descriptive of what happened on the field and predictive of what will happen. When paired with the information contained within the PFF database, it’s a necessary tool in player evaluation and roster building.

Thanks for posting. I read that yesterday as well.

So... a 1st quarter INT that has no clear bearing on the game is graded the same as one with the game on the line. There is also no "weight" added regardless of time of the game or game situation.

Situation is considered when grading QBs. PFF's algorithm will never fully be disclosed due to proprietary information (obviously), this is likely the most in-depth we can expect to be made available.

THE GRADING SCALE

Each player is given a grade of -2 to +2 in 0.5 increments on a given play with 0 generally being the average or “expected” grade. There are a few exceptions as each position group has different rules, but those are the basics. The zero grade is important as most plays feature many players doing their job at a reasonable, or expected, level, so not every player on every play needs to earn a positive or a negative.

At one end of the scale you have a catastrophic game-ending interception or pick-six from a quarterback, and at the other a perfect deep bomb into a tight window in a critical game situation.



Each position has its own grading rubric so our analysts know how to put a grade on the various expectations for a quarterback on a 10-yard pass beyond the sticks or what the range of grades might look like for a frontside offensive tackle down blocking on a “power” play.

There is then an adjustment made to the “raw” grades to adjust for what the player is “expected” to earn given his situation on the field. For instance, a player’s grade may be adjusted down slightly if he plays in a situation that is historically more favorable while a player in more unfavorable circumstances may get an adjustment the other way. We collect over 200 fields of data on each play, and that data helps to determine what the baseline, or expectation, is for each player on every play.

Each grade goes into a specific “facet” of play in order to properly assess each player’s skillset. The facets include passing, rushing, receiving, pass blocking, run blocking, pass-rushing, run defense and coverage. Special teamers also have their own facets of kicking, punting, returning and general special teams play. Facets are important in order to have a clear view of where a player’s strengths and weaknesses lie.

A collection of grading examples across all facets of play is included on this page.

Ahh... cool.

I've been digging and never saw that anywhere. Is that from their site, or somebody's interpretation? So basically (according to the above) an extra half point can be tacked on (or taken off) for anything that fits the mold of spectacular -or- egregious... with consideration for impact pertaining to game situation. I like it.

Thanks for posting.