DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Kevin Stefanski cont

Agreed. We shouldn't even consider bringing back Joe Woods IMO. He has a track record now and it's not good. We can't have another season of our D not playing well until half or more than half the season is over, blown coverages, not making adjustments etc. If our D was average or just slightly above, our record would be at least 2-3 games better and we'd be in the playoffs. I don't like to see anyone lose his job but a change has to be made. JMO

He's probably gone, but we were a top 5 defense in 2021.

If we look at the stats, some things jump off the page at you. I listed how we are doing compared to our division foes as well as how the Browns stack up to the leader in each category. These should give us an insight as to where the Browns need to get better with improvements this coming off season.

Browns Defense through 16 games w/ranking
Yards per game: 11th @ 331.1 yds per game (2nd in Division) - (1st overall Philadelphia @ 302.6)
Rushing yds per game: 25th @ 134.4 yds per game (Last in Division) - (1st overall SFO @ 78.8)
Rushing yds per attempt: 25th @ 4.8 yds per attempt (Last in Division) - (1st overall SFO @ 3.4)
Passing yds per game: 7th @ 196.7 yds per game (1st in Division) - (1st overall Philadelphia @ 181.3)
QBR: 10th @ 85.5 (2nd in Division) - (1st overall NYJets @ 80.8)
Sacks: 24th @ 33 (3rd in Division) - (1st overall Philadelphia 68)
3rd Down Pct: 10th @ 38.0% (2nd in Division) - (1st overall Washington 32.8)
Points per game: 19th @ 22.1 points per game (Last in Division) - (1st overall SFO 16.5)

Browns Offense through 16 games w/ranking
Yards per game: 14th @ 351.7 yds per game (2nd in Division) - (1st overall KCC @ 417.7)
Rushing yds per game: 6th @ 147.2 yds per game (2nd in Division) - (1st overall Chicago @ 181.7)
Rushing yds per attempt: 12th @ 4.6 yds per attempt (2nd in Division) - (1st overall Chicago @ 5.4)
Passing yds per game: 22nd @ 204.4 yds per game (2nd in Division) - (1st overall KCC @ 305.1)
QBR: 22nd @84.9 (3rd in Division) - (1st overall KCC @ 104.7)
Sacks: 15th @ 37 (2nd in Division) - (1st overall TBB @ 22)
3rd Down Pct: 20th @ 37.9% (Last in Division) - (1st overall Buffalo @ 49.7%)
Points per game: 16th @ 21.7 points per game (2nd in Division) - (1st overall KCC @ 29.1)

Vers, I don't know how we were top 5 last year. Let's face it, this D has really regressed and didn't start playing decent until the 8th or 9th game. WE can't have that if we want to contend.

The Browns defense in 2021 faced a combination of offenses led by rookie QBs,
3rd and 4th QBs and retiring QBs. In short the Browns defense
Wasn't challenged a whole lot. Any defense facing the
Brandon Allen, a Lions 3rd string QB is going to make
Any defense look better than what it really is. When the
Browns faced legit offenses in 2021 it faltered

Here's how the Browns have done in 2022 vs 2021. If you look at the various categories, there is minimal change from 2021 to 2022. I've highlighted the areas of regression from 2021 to 2022.

Browns Defense 2021 vs 2022 w/ranking
Yards per game: 2021: 5th @ 311.5 yds per game - 2022: 11th @ 331.1 yds per game
Rushing yds per game: 2021: 12th @ 109.2 yds per game - 2022: 25th @ 134.4 yds per game
Rushing yds per attempt: 2021: 10th @ 4.2 yds per attempt - 2022: 25th @ 4.8 yds per attempt
Passing yds per game: 2021: 5th @ 202.3 yds per game - 2022: 7th @ 196.7 yds per game
QBR: 2021: 13th @ 89.4 - 2022: 10th @ 85.5
Sacks: 2021: 10th @ 43 - 2022: 24th at 33
3rd Down Pct: 2021: 13th @ 39.3% - 2022: 10th @ 38.0%
Points per game: 2021: 13th @ 21.8 points per game - 2022: 19th @ 22.1 points per game

Browns Offense 2021 vs 2022 w/ranking
Yards per game: 2021: 18th @ 340.6 yds per game - 2022: 14th @ 351.7 yds per game
Rushing yds per game: 2021: 4th @ 145.4 yds per game - 2022: 6th @ 147.2 yds per game
Rushing yds per attempt: 2021: 2nd @ 5.1 yds per attempt - 2022: 12th @ 4.6 yds per attempt
Passing yds per game: 2021: 27th @ 195.3 yds per game - 2022: 22nd @ 204.4 yds per game
QBR: 2021: 26th @ 84.6 - 2022: 22nd @ 84.9
Sacks: 2021: 27th @ 49 - 2022: 15th @ 37
3rd Down Pct: 2021: 17th @ 39.2% - 2022: 20th @ 37.9%
Points per game: 2021: 20th @ 20.5 points per game - 2022: 16th @ 21.7 points per game

So I had never really examined this too closely but I went and had a peak -

in 2021 - the Brown's D were 5th overall in yards given up. Points allowed they were 14th. Posters can determine themselves which of those two stats is more important and whether suggesting the Browns had a "5th rated" defense is a fair assessment. They were also 14th in allowing 3rd down conversions - and 27th in red zone scoring allowed.

While Giving up the 14th most points overall, and to Luvmyxstripper's point:

- We faced Tyrod Taylor and rookie Davis Mills (both for HOU), rookie Just Fields (who went 6-20 for 68yds), Teddy Bridgewater (DEN), rookie Mac Jones (New Eng) and finally Tim Boyle (who? - DET). I am not sure what the statistics would say and if facing 5 teams with either rookie or very limited/bad QB's isn't wholly unexpected in a 17 game schedule? But I think the notion we were a top 5 defense needs to be set aside, or provide the whole story and say top 5 in yards given up.

Right. Every other team played the best QB each and every week. Only the Browns played the worst qbs every week.

That's not the point Vers and you know it. You continue to post the Browns had the #5 defense in 2021 and though you are somewhat right because they were #5 in yards allowed, they were not close to #5 in six of the seven other categories. I get you trying to prove a point but you're not telling the entire story, again. Actually, points allowed per game would be a way better barometer as to the level of defense the team is playing since it's the only statistic that's really relevant because if you give up more points to the opponent than you're scoring it really doesn't matter at all how few yards you're allowing a game.

Points allowed does not tell the whole story either. Did the offense turn the ball over in their territory? Was the defense working with a short field often? Etc..,

I'd argue DVOA is one of the best metrics to measure the overall defense compared to the rest of the league.

Browns 2020: Browns Team DVOA ranked 25th
Browns 2021: Browns Team DVOA ranked 11th
Browns 2022: Browns Team DVOA currently ranks 22nd

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020/regular
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2021/regular
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2022/regular

LOL.....I posted factual information. That's the NFL's way of ranking defenses. It's not mine. Btw----no one stat tells the entire story. Just like points allowed doesn't tell the entire story. Your defense is put under pressure when your qb throws 13 picks in 14 games. It's put under even more pressure when he takes needless sacks and the team goes 3 and out way too many times. There is even more pressure when your qb fumbles 6 times in those 14 games.

So, you are right. No one stat tells the entire story. But, using a stat the NFL uses to rank defenses is in no way misleading. Furthermore, I think the NFL world thought highly of the Browns defense last year and most expected that unit to be the strength of the team and carry the Browns during Watson's suspension. That did not turn out to be the case, but we should not rewrite history due to an ongoing quest to trash everything about the Browns.

Agreed. The advanced stats are a much better way to rank defenses. Hell, they are a better way to rank all things regarding football. For example, Completion Probability, Expected Completion Percentage, and Completion Percentage Above Expectation are way more accurate in evaluating a QBs accuracy than the outdated Completion percentage that some still use.

I think most Browns fan thought highly of the defense from last year coming into this season. 2021 started off with blown converges vs Chiefs and Chargers that lead to losses early in the season, But, as the year went on that seemed to be fixed and the defense kept the Browns in games while the offense sputtered. Most of us fans thought the defense remaining intact for the most part would do the same while the offense had a backup QB. Then the ugly blown coverages from the start of the 2021 season resurfaced vs the Panthers and Jets. The later cost the Browns a game that if they would have won this Sunday's game could have possibly been for a playoff spot.

I actually, don't blame Woods for the run defense. I do think the General Manager's approach to field a smaller but faster defense to combat the explosive offenses is the main culprit in why this defense has issues stopping the run. But, 2 years in a row of the secondary having blown coverage issues early in the season is a real concern. If Woods was to come back, how is he going to coach that will prevent a 3rd year repeat of early season secondary issues giving up quick scores due to missed assignments?

Agreed and thanks. This stat does provide a much clearer picture.

Not really arguing w/you, but we gave up 6 pts in game 3 last year and 7 pts in game 4. Our first game was against KC. They score a lot....LOL

In game two, we gave up 21 to Houston, but I think Tyrod Taylor was running around a lot in the first half before he got hurt. We did give up 47 in game 5, but again, that was against Herbert. We gave up 14 in the next two games.

I don't know if we really had a lot of blown coverages in those high scoring games or their offenses were very good in competitive, high-scoring games. Did you know we surrendered less than 17 pts in 12 of our 17 games?

Btw---I am not saying Woods should keep his job. I think he is gone. I'm just saying some of the perceptions about last year's defense might not be quite right. The DVOA stats that Milk posted aligns w/how I felt about our defense the last 3 years. Bad in 2020. Pretty good last year w/a lot of young players. And disappointing for much of this year, although not quite as bad as some are saying.

I think the main sticking point, at least for me, is that each season shouldn't look like we're installing a new defense. One would hope a DC would be able to build on the prior season. Instead we see the defense take a huge step back at the start of the season and have to scratch and claw their way back to the performances of the prior season. It's like talking one step forward and two steps back.

Well we've had someone spam the boards saying we were a top 5 defense, quoting that a lot. I'd say that ranking the Browns overall at 11th based on DVOA is very realistic. That's middle third - I can't see the numbers and don't know the differential between 5th and 11th and 11th and say 20th ... but we had some good stretches and some really bad stretches, a bit like this year. Specifically on Woods - I think the players being confused, talking about a lack of (or issues with) communication, lack of in game adjustments and the flatness with which they have played some games should absolutely seal his fate.

Span the boards..............LMAO!

Every little thing has to be a fight. You are freaking obsessed w/me. Get a life.

You just might want to rethink your opinion, vastly improved QB play has not occurred in 2022.

Offense Comparison 2021 vs 2022

Browns 2021: TD Passes: 21
Browns 2022: TD Passes: 17

Browns 2021: Interceptions: 14
Browns 2022: Interceptions: 10

Browns 2021: 7 Fumbles, 3 fumbles lost
Browns 2022: 7 Fumbles, 4 fumbles lost

Browns 2021: Dropped Passes: 25
Browns 2022: Dropped Passes: 37

Browns 2021: Sacks: 49 (9 of which came in the 2nd game against PIT where Stefanski hung QB out to dry with a poor OT blocking Watt solo)
Browns 2022: Sacks: 37

Browns 2021 3rd Down percentage: 39.2%
Browns 2022 3rd Down percentage: 37.9%

Browns 2021: 4th Down percentage: 41.4%
Browns 2022: 4th Down percentage: 55.0%

Browns 2021: Red Zone percentage: 62.0%
Browns 2022: Red Zone percentage: 51.9%

I did not say a thing about 2022. I was talking about the points allowed in 2021 because that is the point 888 brought up after I said we had a top 5 defense in 2021. I think everyone agrees the defense has been poor this year.

You are blaming the offense for the 2021 poor defensive showing and I'm saying the offense hasn't grossly improved as you have claimed it would. If it was the offense fault in 2021 you can't have equal or worse numbers on offense in 2022 and now blame the defense. No doubt the defense has been poor this year, but the offense hasn't helped them either. Lower 3rd down conversions, poorer red zone effectiveness, more fumbles lost, and less passing TD's by this Stefanski driven offense has to have an effect on the defense - well, at least that's what you're claiming about 2021. Or is all this just another attempt to push your agenda?

I am not blaming the offense. You are just sensitive about this because you love Baker more than the Browns. That's your right, but the rest of us don't have to buy into loving a player over a team.

You were the one who brought up that one stat is not telling the entire story. I agreed w/you. Other things have to be considered. If you don't think interceptions and sacks are factors, so be it. I think they are factors in the number of points a defense gives up.

Stats are cool. Analytics is cool.

Here's what matters> W? Or L? Those 2 numbers are the ONLY things that matter.

First of all, you brought the former QB into the equation not I. You obviously stopped reading after the first 2 stats too.

You asked ^ about interceptions, but you fail to acknowledge 14 Browns interceptions in 2021 isn't significantly different from the 10 Browns interceptions in 2022 with a game to go yet. You spew your hatred agenda about the sacks but won't acknowledge Stefanski sacrificing his QB with 9 sacks in week 17 against Pittsburgh or the fact that even with that, the sacks will be relatively close after the final game. It's so amazing that you'll cherry pick out the only 2 areas where the Browns 2022 offense might be better than the offense from 2021.

However, you forgot to reemphasize the fumble issue because the fumbles are the same at 7 with more lost fumbles in 2022 than 2021 and still a game to go.

You forgot to follow-up about the excessive amount of 3 and outs the 2021 team had that wrecked the defense (according to you ^). Of course, that might be because the 2021 team had a better 3rd down conversion percentage of 39.2% compared to the 2022 conversion percentage of 37.9%. What, are you saying that wasn't a factor in the number of points the defense gave up in 2022 now?

You also conveniently skipped the Red Zone Offense where the 2021 team was 62.0% while the 2022 Browns are only 51.9%. I suppose that this doesn't affect the defense either.

Finally, unlike you, I gave the statistics of the 2021 offense compared to the 2022 offense (both ran by Stefanski). I didn't mention QB names or belittle any individual player. My whole post and the follow-ups have been about the team performance. It was you (as usual) who loves Stefanski more than the team and has our former QB living every day in your head. Your posts show your hatred agenda and it's been recognized by the vast majority on this forum.

I have watched this happen, too.
One one level, I can understand a certain % of rust at the start of each season, but weeks-long slow starts have been a hallmark ofa Joe Woods' D. And I don't understand it at all.

Back at the mid-season point, we began to see improved D production. Shortly thereafter, we got news&notes that the D scheme had been simplified, leading to faster, more instinctive play on the field. I also recall the green dot moving to another player (possibly due to injury), which seemed to coincide with the unit's improved play. Why were these adjustments not made in weeks 2,3-4? The same players were on the field. The same players were available. The same play book was in use.

If those readjustments had been made earlier in the year, CLE would be in the thick of a playoff scenario.

Now, I don't know (and can't remember) if last year's campaign followed similar circumstances, but I do know this: in a reg season that only lasts 17 games, you can't wait until Game 7,8 or 9 to get your turds in a pile- on either side of the ball.

2 years in a row, on almost exactly the same timeline. That's a real concern.

Even if our circumstances from one season to the next were completely different (and I confess I'm not enough of a fan/hobbyist/zealot to actually remember/research the details), I still maintain that NFL teams that need a half-season to fine-tune themselves into playing shape deserve to watch the playoffs on TV with the rest of us.

Does this mean I think that Joe Woods should be replaced next week?
I honestly can't say that for sure. I don't know enough about The Game, CLE's coaching dynamics, or the risks involved with bringing in someone new to a group that is only 3 years old. I'm a big fan of system/consistency/culture... and we're still only 4 years removed from being the most rudderless, embarrassing franchise in the league.

It's a conundrum.

Is there a chance that a Joe Woods D plays late-season football early in 2023? I suppose. If so, that would be the biggest, easiest improvement Browns fans could ask for, looking ahead.
If Joe Woods gets dumped? I'll kinda be "meh"... and start speculating about his replacement's chances, once the change has been made and data starts flowing in.

Rinse/repeat.

.02

To piggyback on that thought, when camps open, it is widely accepted that the D is always ahead of the O.

We don't seem to do that.

Just to add another thought, some of the reporters are beginning to feel that Woods isn't going anywhere. I heard that earlier this evening as reported on 92.3 the fan radio. Reiter was one who was mentioned.

Just passing that along as an FYI. I don't know if that is reliable, semi, or not reliable at all. You know how those talk show radio hosts pass "info" along.

I'd say semi at this point. I am pretty sure Stefanski and the Browns brass view things through a different lens than that of the fans.

What my eyes tell me. It’s my opinion and I am allowed to have it.

2021 Browns offense was pretty good and competitive before the Baker injury, afterwards they were much more conservative and the team struggled with QB play. Case Keenan was probably better than an injured Baker. That was not going to happen. Baker has an ego that we all know about.

2022 Browns offense similar to year before after Bakers injury. Brisset does not stretch the defense. Teams can play tight as everything is in front of them. Team should be better after Watson gets some time to learn the system. Cooper is good.

Bottom line Watson is Baker without the locker room ego, but with massage parlor baggage.

Browns defense.

2021 and 2022. This defense only works if there are 4 quality DL and the Browns only have 2. No push up the middle. I miss the FA DL guy from last year, who went nuts and was cut. DB’s and safety’s are ok, that is not the problem. LB’s need speed for the D to be effective. Similar, but you will lose close games because the offense is not a threat.

No surprise that the records will be similar. What did you expect?

Watson had better be worth the draft capital and money spent. Right now it is not there.

Anyone expecting a playoff birth was delusional. Not going to happen, but I will take it over 2017-18. Sigh. That makes me sad. Lowered expectations sucks.

Waiting for next year again……

That's a one game body of work there.

I am not saying this to fight, but I think the perception that it took us almost half the season to get the D together is untrue. Here is a link for you--and others--to look at and see for yourself.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/cle/season/2021

If you notice, we won 26 to 6 in week 3 and won 14-7 in week 4.

While not a great performance, we surrendered 21 pts in a victory in week 2.

I get that for some reason people think firing coaches is the answer and that it is practically an annual tradition for Browns fans, but I believe that some of the perceptions we have our false. And again, allowing less than 17 pts in 12 out of 17 games is quite noteworthy.

I also think Woods is gone and I am not arguing that we should keep him. I just think that the truth is important.

The rest of the NFL vigorously disagrees. That fact is evident to anyone who follows the sport on at least a casual basis.

I have the exact same concern for the offense. Afterall, the Browns upgraded the QB position, traded for a #1 WR, and had way less injuries on offense than 2021 yet statistically, the Browns performed poorer on offense than they did in 2021 in many areas plus we need a road win in Pittsburgh just to equal last year's poor record. I get it that fans want to see Woods bounced because of the slow starts but we're looking at an offense that has regressed every year under Stefanski's lead of that group. Actually, considering the injuries to the offense in 2021, the 2022 offense has drastically underperformed considering they only suffered the 1 lost time injury to Pocic. I don't believe I have to get into game adjustments because Stefanski has solidified himself as one of the poorest game adjusters we've ever seen. I don't know if the Browns will bump Woods or not but I'm fearful that the trends we've witnessed out of this offense for the last 3 years, it won't make any difference what the Browns do with the defense because the offense will still underperform. Just a note, I don't think a Watson can overcome the poor play calling or lack of adjustments on a week-by-week basis with Stefanski still in charge of the offense. I know many believe he can but these last 5 weeks hasn't done anything to build my confidence that it will be different. Tough to post a winning record when neither side of the ball has the ability to adjust.

You must be new here. Welcome to the board!

j/c:

The Browns rank 8th overall in DVOA on offense. I'd say that is pretty good considering they were playing w/a backup QB for the first 11 games of the season and w/another qb who hadn't played in almost two years in the remaining 5 games.


https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-offense/2022/regular

This season was a perfect example of that. Brissett came in and it seemed as though it was a seamless transition. The offensive production was fine. Stefanski took a mediocre QB and had him performing well. The denfese? They were stumbling, mumbling and fumbling along. And after the way they performed for most of the 2021 season there was just no excuse for that.

And how do they rank in those last five games?

Are you incapable of doing your own search?

I'm quite sure you won't be doing it because it would certainly undermine the agenda you're trying to perpetuate.

I'm sorry you hate Baker more than you love the Browns.