DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Playoff scenerios

The point in all of this that some seem to skim is we might not even make the playoffs.

If we lose to Cincy, it comes down to us beating the Niners and the Titans having to lose to the Colts....who will probably be led by Jim Sorgi with Manning and others taking the day off since their playoff position won't be altered by the outcome of that game..

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=3161184&type=story

Titans lose linebacker Fowler for season with shoulder injury
By Len Pasquarelli
ESPN.com

Middle linebacker Ryan Fowler, who in his first season as a starter helped stabilize the Tennessee Titans' defense, will miss the rest of the season with a right shoulder injury suffered in last Sunday's victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.


The four-year veteran has been placed on injured reserve and the Titans have signed free agent Jorge Cordova to take his place on the roster. Cordova, a 2004 third-round draft choice of the Jacksonville Jaguars, has been plagued by a series of injuries throughout his career.


Fowler, 25, started all 14 games for the Titans and had 73 tackles, three tackles for losses, and one pass defensed.


Second-year veteran Stephen Tulloch, who replaced Fowler on Sunday after the injury, and recorded nine tackles against the Chiefs, will move into the starting lineup. Tulloch started three games in 2006, and he competed with Fowler for the starting job in training camp this summer.


The loss of Fowler is a significant one, because he helped anchor a defense that statistically ranks No. 5 in the league, and which has demonstrated considerable improvement over a year ago. The Titans, who host the New York Jets on Sunday, are 8-6 with two games remaining, and a game behind Cleveland for the second AFC wild card berth.


After three years with the Dallas Cowboys, where he started three times in 32 appearances, Fowler was courted by both the Philadelphia Eagles and the Titans as a restricted free agent. In March, he verbally agreed to a four-year offer sheet with Philadelphia, and the accord was far enough along that the Eagles actually announced it on their Web site.


After further consideration, Fowler had second thoughts about his future. Before he officially signed the offer sheet with the Eagles, he changed his mind and signed a four-year, $11.5 million offer sheet from the Titans. The Cowboys declined to match the deal and Fowler moved on to the Titans, where he won the starting job, becoming the Titans' sixth different starting middle linebacker in six seasons.


A former Duke standout, Fowler was a special teams terror for the Cowboys, notching a team-best 24 tackles on the kicking units in 2006. From scrimmage, he registered only 19 tackles and two forced fumbles in three seasons. But in scrutinizing video of Fowler early in the spring, Tennessee defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz saw a mobile player with solid size (6-feet-3, 250 pounds) and the ability to avoid clutter to get to the ball.


Len Pasquarelli is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.


Anyone have any insight on how much this might affect them, losing their starting MLB?

Just going over the contributions of Tulloch as the fill-in last week, this could be good for us.

He had 9 tackles, but they were for 4, 6, 3, 3, 5, 9, 14, 9 & 8 yards.
That is 6.78 yards per play that he is involved in.

Here's hoping that the Jets can make use of this

i dont know about you but I would rather see us win out and tennessee win out and see the Steelers lose out and miss the playoffs

it would be great to see the Steelers miss out completely, but my first concern has gotta be anything that will ensure that we get in

Once we do that, then we can talk about Tenn winning a few, San Diego losing one, etc...

I agree.

I think we are spending a little too much time talking playoffs......this is Cleveland, remember???

If there is a way for a 10 win team to miss out, we stand a good chance of finding that way.

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only way the browns dont go is to lose the last two

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Not entirely true.
If we lose this week, even if we beat the 49ers in the last week... if Pitt wins at least one and Tenn wins out... we're done.... we'd lose to Tenn on tiebreakers of Conference Record. We'll be sitting at home in January.

ahh, yeah... right church, wrong pew.

As of tonight, for the wild-card there are 16 possible scenarios remaining, of which we make the playoffs over Tennessee in 14 of those scenarios.

As for winning the North, going into Thursday nights game we had a 5 out of 16 chance in winning. After Pittsburgh's win our chances fell to 1 in 8.

Wild Card : 87.5%
Division : 12.5%

I can smell it...we win our next 2 games while Pizzburp loses to the Ravens in Baltmore. A knife fight ensues and well...some of these guys been to jail before.

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Division : 12.5%

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I'm not buying that.

How do you not buy it? There are 8 possible remaining scenarios between Pittsburgh and ourselves, only 1 of which have us winning the division. 1 out of 8 = .125 or 12.5%

Because all 8 possible scenarios do not have the same probability of happening,...therefore I do not agree with the Browns having a 12.5% chance of winning the division.

You are correct math genius, I did not pull a probability density function out of my butt to give a statistical weighting to each possible outcome.

This was simply an outcome based statistical analysis. Each game played has 2 possible outcomes...a win or a loss. Period. That's all I was saying.

If that's not "exact" enough for you, then I'm sorry.

Dude,...relax. I'm just saying I don't agree with your percentages,...I really don't care....I'm not insulting you.

With our loss, Pittsburgh clinches the AFC North.

Wild Card is now at 6 of 8 or 75%.

o.k graff lets say the titins win today vs the jets,am i correct in my thinking that even if we win next week the titins still need to lose for us to get in ?

Then, Reguardless, Quinn should play..

first and goal new york at the 8


so if the jets win i still start da for the first half then let quinn in

If the Titans win their last game, they're in.

If the Titans lose their last game, we're in.

It all depends on the Titans/Colts game. While I want to win against SF badly, we no longer control our own destiny.

So! we could loose? and still be in?

Yes.

I want to say, without looking it up, that the Browns have/ would have a better conference record than the Titans

I was thinking the same thing, We could have lost today and still got in with a titans loss, so if we win next week w loose?
I want tosee the senerio....Just wishing I guess

Here are the tiebreaking rules:

• 1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  
  
• 2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  
  
• 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  
  
• 4. Strength of victory.
  
  
• 5. Strength of schedule.
  
  
• 6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  
  
• 7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  
  
• 8. Best net points in conference games.
  
  
• 9. Best net points in all games.
  
  
• 10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  
  
• 11. Coin toss.

link

LOL! Clear as mud, huh?

And I'm doing this just as much for myself to make sure I understand.

If TN loses, their conference record will be worse than ours, so we're in, even if we lose (because we play a non-conference team).

If TN wins, their conference record will be the same as ours, so it goes to the common opponents.

Our common opponents are Oakland, Houston, Cincinnati and the Jets.

Tennessee won all those games. We beat Houston and the Jets, but lost one to Cinci and we lost to Oakland.

Their total record against common opponents: 5-0 (they played Houston twice).
Our total record against common opponents: 3-2 (one loss to Cinci and Oakland).

That's the way I'm reading it, at least.

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I've been arguing AGAINST that all year. Alll year. I hate Quinn. I think he sucks.

After today, I COMPLETELY agree with you.

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How in the heck did Quinn get better today?

By default?

Ive been saying all year that the Oakland game was gonna come back to haunt us!..Where is the crying graemlin?

Yup, I agree. Oakland, Arizona and today's Cinci game. Three very winnable games. We wouldn't even be in this mess if we'd won 2 of those 3. Heck, we'd be ready to take our division!

You never answered my question! Where is the crying graemlin?