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Thought this was a pretty good piece regarding a question I’ve had all week. I’m curious what the more XO knowledgeable folks think and more importantly what our defense should do about it.

Link

Link broken, you missed a colon.

Here's the LINK

and the text:


Why the Browns defense had so much trouble with the Colts and a backup QB: Inside the Numbers
Updated: Oct. 28, 2023, 10:40 a.m.|Published: Oct. 28, 2023, 10:39 a.m.
Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts, October 22, 2023
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By Malachy Gardner | special to cleveland.com
CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Browns defense gave up 38 points and 456 yards to the Colts in last Sunday’s thriller, leading many to question if this is still the historically good unit it seemed to be this season.

Although Myles Garrett single-handedly kept the Browns in the game, the defense as a whole allowed the Colts offense, led by Gardner Minshew, who was coming off one of his worst career games in a blowout loss to Jacksonville, to methodically move the ball up and down the field.

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So how did the Browns defense go from shutting down the 49ers’ league-leading offense to struggling against the Colts’ middling offense with a backup quarterback?

The Browns defense has been much better in man coverage than in zone coverage this season, as data from Sports Info Solutions indicates:

Man coverage

37.5% completion percentage allowed (1st among NFL defenses)
6.5 yards per play allowed (8th)
-0.24 EPA/play allowed (5th)
Zone coverage

59.5% completion percentage allowed (2nd)
7.9 yards per play allowed (21st)
-0.14 EPA/play allowed (7th)
(EPA, or Expected Points Added, considers down, distance and field position before and after a play to determine how successful a play was in terms of points. A 4-yard gain on first-and-10 is different than a 4-yard gain on third-and-3, something that isn’t captured in basic statistics. For offense, a positive EPA is better. For defense, a negative EPA is better.)

Against Indianapolis, the Browns played zone coverage 64% of the time, the highest rate under Jim Schwartz outside of the Baltimore game, where they played zone 68%. Coincidentally, the two worst defensive performances of the year came against the Ravens and the Colts.

The Browns were forced into playing zone against the Ravens and Colts because both teams had quarterbacks who are rushing threats. It’s difficult to play man against mobile quarterbacks because each defender is facing the receiver they’re guarding. In zone, defenders are facing the line of scrimmage and watching the quarterback’s movements, making it easier to stop them from scrambling.

This dynamic led Schwartz to play more zone than desired, and as a result, the Browns showed that they are beatable if forced to play this way. One way the Colts forced the Browns out of their man looks is by running “pick” plays. These plays take advantage of man coverage by running horizontally. The Colts used one of these plays, their slant/flat concept, against the Browns for great success:

Slant/flat concept

3 of 5, 91 yards, 1 TD
0.92 EPA per play
Colts head coach Shane Steichen used these passing concepts to take advantage of the Browns’ tendencies to play man and force them to play more zone.

Once the Colts had forced the Browns out of man, they were able to attack the zone looks by targeting the middle of the field. When targeting that area, the Colts were very successful:

Middle of the field passing

6 of 9, 117 yards, 1 TD
33.3% explosive play rate
The reason the Colts targeted the middle of the field is because the strength of the Browns’ defense is their cornerbacks. The Colts did not want to test the trio of Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II, and Martin Emerson Jr., opting instead to attack the linebackers in coverage.

The Colts laid the blueprint to beat the Browns’ defense. If you can force them to play zone, whether that be with a mobile quarterback or by running man coverage-beating plays, the defense is susceptible to giving up big plays.

The Browns are also on track to play Josh Dobbs and Lamar Jackson in the coming weeks. Both teams have athletic quarterbacks that like to break the pocket and scramble. When scrambling, both quarterbacks are very effective and explosive:

Josh Dobbs

31.6 yards per game (7th among starting QBs)
37% broken tackle rate (5th)
0.37 EPA per play (9th)
Lamar Jackson

53.1 yards per game (1st among starting QBs)
35.9% broken tackle rate (6th)
0.24 EPA per play (13th)
Success in the NFL is about adapting. Throughout the course of a season, opposing teams find different weaknesses to exploit. The Browns defense has faced its first real challenge of the season and will have to face the Cardinals and Ravens, teams that will undoubtedly try to replicate the Colts’ game plan.

The Browns will need to improve their zone defense to stop teams from taking advantage of their recent struggles.

Malachy Gardner is a freelance reporter and independent football analyst. He has a YouTube channel, “Dawg Pound Dish”, which combines film analysis and statistics to analyze the Browns. You can find his work here: youtube.com/dawgpounddish

I truly think we need to have 2-3 players on the defensive side of the ball who justify their roster spot solely on their ability to contain Lamar's scrambling.

You don't think they already do? Maybe, it's been in the works since the playoff loss to KC. Or before b/c Taki Taki played in that game, and then, what about J.O.K. or Tony Fields II, or why are Oko, and Zedarius getting as much or more time as Wright and I. Thomas who began this year on the practice s@uad, and even one could say, if they had Thomas, that they got McGuire, b/c he,, well his type might be more slender and speed built than Thomas , DE's, who is maybe more power built, .. and that < is not even considering the shift in mindset to 3 starting caliber safeties for nickel instead of another smaller corner for the traditional nickel,
or , about Kunaczyk, and the udfa player who stuck around this year, or that Harris, Dl and Hurst DL, who may be @uicker, stuck over Tristen Hill,
so, maybe there are more than a couple players meant to stop a scrambling @uarterback
but

a scrambling @uarterback, who goes in for a touchdown, is still one of the biggest problems for this defense.

Thanks for correcting my link error.

I think the gist of the article and what we’re seeing is that teams that have a very balanced attack, especially those with mobile QBs, force us out of man coverage, where we’re very athletic and fast especially at the corners, and into zone, which relies more on our safeties, LBs and overall coverage coordination and we’re just not as good in that scheme. We become pretty soft in the middle of coverage which has a knock-on effect reducing the effectiveness of our pass rush (because there’s more quick-out, pass rush punishing opportunity) and the second level of the run game in the middle has to be respected far more. If you stay in man there’s just much more opportunity to gash big plays with the QB’s feet or if the DL gets beat on a run.

Does that make sense and is it about right?

I haven’t watched a ton of us live this year because I live out of market and sundays are often busy for me but does that track with the past Pitt and Balt games?

If so, what do you do to counter that?

thats a good way to win

I said before, Schwartz was the best addition this offseason.. One thing you can count on. He will make adjustments throughout the game and its just a matter of time before he has you figured out. We've never had a DC this good before.

I agree ... Schwartz is really good

He's got a cupboard of front 7 guys to deal with and then a good back 4

What really confounds me is that he somehow has Kyle Shanahan figured out. The same guy who is notorious for baiting DC's into thinking they have him figured out, and then pulling the rug out from under them.