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Haven't yet plugged any scenarios in .... but there is this

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Yes. In this scenario the Browns would host the #6 seed (Bills in your scenario) and the Ravens would host the #7 seed (Colts in your scenario).

While there is no reseeding in the NFL playoffs, the host of each game is determined by seeding number, not position in the bracket. After the wild-card games are completed, the matchups of the divisional playoffs feature the lowest remaining seed in each conference traveling to the highest remaining seed and the second-lowest remaining seed traveling to the second-highest remaining seed.

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-playoff-format-how-does-the-nfl-postseason-work

In that seeding with that scenario-Yes

I just want to know which day/time we play as I'll be traveling to Vegas that weekend.

Not the only way. The Browns could be the road team for both the WC and Divisional rounds and host the AFC Championship. Very unlikely, but possible.

Example using your standings:

WC Round -

2.) seed Dolphins versus 7.) seed Colts

3.) seed KC versus 6.) seed Bills

4.) seed Jags versus 5.) seed Browns

Divisional Round -

7.) Colts at 1.) Ravens

5). Browns at 3.) KC

AFC Championship -

7.) Colts at 5.) Browns

Damn that would be the way to go.

Beat the Jags, KC, and Colts.

Then on to the Super Bowl. I like that scenario.



Divisional Round -

7.) Colts at 1.) Ravens

5). Browns at 3.) KC

AFC Championship -

7.) Colts at 5.) Browns

I'll be surprised if we aren't heading to Jacksonville

2023 NFL Playoff Scenarios: Who's in, tiebreakers after Week 17 games
Updated Dec. 31, 2023 11:46 p.m. GMT-5
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Only one full week remains in the 2023 season. A handful of teams have already secured a spot in the postseason, while plenty of playoff berths and seeding remain to be decided.

Here's how the AFC and NFC playoff races are shaping up, with four Sunday afternoon and evening games not yet concluded.

AFC DIVISION LEADERS
West: Kansas City (10-6) has clinched the division.
East: Miami (11-5) is currently ahead of Buffalo (10-6) for the division lead and has already clinched a playoff berth. The two play each other next week and the winner will clinch the division.
South: Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Houston are tied at 9-7, but Jacksonville owns the head-to-head over Indianapolis and is ahead of Houston on tiebreakers despite the two splitting the series. The Jaguars will clinch the division if they win next week against the Titans. If the Jaguars lose, the winner of next week's matchup between the Colts and the Texans will win the division.
North: Baltimore (13-3) has clinched the division.

AFC WILD CARD
Cleveland has already clinched a playoff berth and will be a wild-card participant.

Buffalo is currently the second wild card at 10-6; the Bills can still win their division if they defeat the Dolphins next week.*Buffalo can still make the playoffs as a wild-card participant with loss against the Dolphins next week if either the Steelers or Jaguars lose as well.

Indianapolis is currently in the third wild-card spot at 9-7; the Colts can still win their division but would need the Jaguars to lose and also defeat the Texans next week. *The Colts are currently ahead of the Texans due to owning the head-to-head result against them and are ahead of the Steelers due to also owning the head-to-head against them.

Houston (9-7) and Pittsburgh (9-7) are each in the hunt and are mathematically still in play for a wild-card spot.*The Texans are ahead of the Steelers due to owning the head-to-head against them.*The Steelers are ahead of the Bengals due to sweeping them in the regular season.*The Steelers will make the wild card if they win AND the Dolphins win next week, or if they win AND the Titans win.*The Steelers can make the wild card if they lose, but would need the Titans to win next week AND the Broncos to win as well.

Denver, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, Tennessee, New York, Los Angeles and New England have been eliminated from playoff contention.


AFC NO. 1 SEED

Baltimore has clinched the No. 1 overall seed.


NFC DIVISION LEADERS
West: San Francisco (11-4) has clinched the division.
East: Dallas (11-5) is currently ahead of Philadelphia (11-5) due to having a better record in common games; if both teams win next week, Dallas will clinch the division. The Cowboys play the Commanders and the Eagles face the Giants. Both teams have already clinched a playoff berth.
South: Tampa Bay and New Orleans are both 8-8 at the top of the division, but the Buccaneers will clinch the division next week with a win. If the Buccaneers lose and the Saints win next week, the Saints will win the division.
North: Detroit (11-5) has clinched the division.


NFC WILD CARD
Philadelphia (11-5) has clinched a playoff berth and will at worst be a wild-card participant. (Dallas can still win the NFC East, as mentioned above).
The Los Angeles Rams have already clinched a playoff berth.
Green Bay is currently the third wild-card participant at 8-8 and will clinch a playoff berth if it wins next week.
Seattle (8-8), New Orleans (8-8), Minnesota (7-9) and Atlanta (7-9) are each in the hunt and are mathematically still in play for a wild-card spot.*Seattle is ahead of New Orleans based on conference record. *Minnesota is ahead of Atlanta due to owning the head-to-head.
Chicago, New York, Washington, Arizona and Carolina have been eliminated from playoff contention.

NFC NO. 1 SEED
San Francisco has clinched the No. 1 overall seed.


Tiebreakers (two clubs)
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
Tiebreakers (three or more clubs)

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at step 1 of three-club format.)

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Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

my best guess as to what it will be:

1. Baltimore
2. Buffalo (I think they beat Miami in week 18)
3. Kansas City
4. Jacksonville
5. Cleveland
6. Miami
7. Houston (I think they beat Indy in week 18)


I can see Miami beating KC, which means we MIGHT end up playing at Buffalo if we can pull off a win in JAX

I agree, I can't see them losing to the Titans either.

Watching their offensive line just basically get manhandled the entire games yesterday just showed me a team that has quit and has mailed in it for the year.

I agree... Tennessee is done. In fact, I'm not sure they ever got started lol

just saw a hypothetical betting line of Jacksonville -2.5 vs Cleveland ... I assume each team we could play would be a similar line

I would prefer to play as the underdog, although that hasn't seemed to matter with Flacco.

IMO, we are better than any of the 3 that we'll see in the first round. That obviously doesn't mean that we will win, but we have an advantage in that we've beaten all 3.

Our strength is our DL and secondary. Jacksonville is thin on the OL and is missing Kirk/Agnew now. That's gotta be the team we hope to play IMO

I agree that we are better than any team in the AFC South. Stroud probably scares me the most since he can get hot and light up the scoreboard.

But we are Browns fans, you always brace yourself for the big let down. I do believe this team is better than that, but many many times when I have felt the Browns are better and felt confident they have let me(us) down. So I'm just going to be the cautious optimist each and every week.

I've lived in this space for years too, Psyde. I guess we all have.
And that's why I've taken up a new mantra:


"Anticipate nothing, and just enjoy the ride."

This season has been so crazy, so unpredictable, I'm willing to just ride it out with this team for however long this roller coaster runs. And no matter how it ends, I'll be glad that I finally have a team in O&B that has kept me on the edge of my seat for an entire season. We Dawgs have been so starved for this for so long, this entire season has felt like a fever dream. I'm trying my hardest to not project, predict or prognosticate. Just let it come to me, and enjoy the drama. Tryna get my 'zen' on...because it's the only way my ancient heart can stand it.


Banged-up Brownies seal the postseason with a 4-win streak... and a 1-game reg season cushion.
Damn, this sure is fun.

Its either Jax or Indy. Honestly don’t know which I’d prefer. After that, who knows. I don’t fear anyone other than the Ravens. I would not be surprised to win or lose against anyone.

But I’m reasonably confident the AFC championship is in Baltimore. Would be shocked if they exit before then. They’re the most complete team in the league playing at their best at the perfect time. If we get there that would be the most incredible moment. Dare to dream.

What an exciting few weeks we’ve got before us. So many threads to follow this weekend. Actually having a reason to pay attention in January! What a novel concept!

Is it accurate that the only game Browns could host would be the AFC Championship..... and several chips would have to fall their way?

We *could* host a divisional game IF the 6 seed upsets the 3 seed and the 7 seed upsets the 2 seed

Unless there is a Monday night game , which I don't think there is...we will know Sunday evening. That is good enough for me. No use speculating every scenario.

We will probably play the Jags. Maybe Saturday. Maybe Sunday. Time...does it really matter? I would prefer 1:00.

Side bar: I've been playing with the ESPN Playoff Machine.

I cannot find a scenario where we are not the #5 Seed following Week 18, regardless of any outcomes. We gain absolutely nothing by winning in Week 18; we lose absolutely nothing in a loss. Not even Draft position is affected.
I cannot find a scenario where we do not play the winner of the AFC South in the Wild Card round.

I fully expect that we will be resting EVERYONE against Cinci (talk about a Mega-Bye... getting a rest week after a TNF game).
If Jacksonville wins, they're it. They're playing Tennessee, and they're playing for the division, so you can almost bank on it.
If JAX loses, we'll be playing the winner of HOU-IND.

Yeah we are locked into 5 no matter what ... couple that with the mini-bye of last week and we should be as healthy as possible

only reason we would have to play sunday is if we were worried about rust after an extended time off. I don't think its worth the risk, I wouldn't play anyone in the top 2 in depth. Except hopkins if he can go, let him get his 5 points and break the record.

We had an early bye, rust isn’t the issue in fact it’s far from it. Rest the key starters, I want to see Flacco, our OL, Garrett, Ward, JOK, Amari on the sidelines in sweats. Call up the PS guys.

Praying for the Jags to lose and Houston to win... would love to watch my browns in the playoffs up close!

we're locked into the 5th seed... this week does not matter... we should not play any of our starters this weekend

Instead of full rest, I could see treating it like a preseason game and giving the starters just one or two series just to keep 'em sharp, then go all backups the rest of the way.

I'd be good with that too... either way, our starters should basically get a weekend off...

i want no part of the texans with stroud at QB

I agree. The more I've thought of it, the more I'm OK with going to Jacksonville.

When we went to Indy, their offense diced us up and Steichen is a great schemer (plus, their crowd is really good)

Jacksonville has the best QB, but a little banged up, not playing as great, etc

We handled them without Ward.

Some coaches lean into the momentum aspect which means they wish to keep the momentum going by playing their starters in such a situation. Some believe it's best to rest the starters to eliminate the injury risk involved. With the way this season has gone I would side with letting them rest.

I think perhaps a hybrid approach would be good. The guys that are REALLY banged up should just sit. The ones that are just normal end-of-season banged up should get a series or two. Basically, everyone that is on the injury report, or has been within the last three weeks, should sit. Everyone else, give them a couple of series and then rotate in the backups and get them some full-speed game time.

One thing that maybe should be noted is in regards to Flacco. He gets 75k for every game he plays in. Not a lot of money in NFL terms I know but then he isn't getting paid much this year. So if he doesn't take at least one snap he loses out on that 75k. I would hope the Browns would at least allow him to get that money for all he has done for them.

Oh, that's an interesting tidbit. Then, I'd hope that, at a minimum, he takes the first offensive snap so he is listed as another Game Started.

the browns could also just give him the 75k not to play couldn't they? I mean I would think its discretionary.

I have no idea if an NFL team can just slide cash to a player outside of the contract boundaries. I've seen it brought up and suggested in several FB posts but have no idea if that violates any NFL contract rules. I would guess that there is a probably be a rule against it. Not for this particular situation per say but if NFL teams were allowed to pay players beyond their agreed upon contract agreement when they felt it was the right thing to do or it suited their purpose it could be manipulated to circumvent the salary cap. From my understanding the money your team pays its players according to the salary cap is determined by the contract numbers and you can't deviate away from that unless you are signing new players.

Yeah, it would violate pretty much every contract rule, lol

Just have him take the first snap and hand off to the RB. He merely has to "help the Browns win" to earn the $75k.
Of course, it also means we have to actually win, so depending on how the backups are doing, it could cost him.

Of course, the REAL money comes the following week when we get to the playoffs.
He’ll earn $250,000 for a wild-card postseason win, $500,000 for a divisional round playoff win, $1 million for an AFC championship game win and $2 million for bringing Cleveland a Super Bowl title.
So, there is $3.75 million waiting for him that can help him forget the $75k he might miss out on.

I figured he could just come in to take a knee when we are inevitably up by 50 points at the end of the fourth.

^^^THIS^^^


Is my thinking, as well. My numbers may vary from Prp's, but my take is exactly the same.

Too much time off can be just as detrimental as not enough time off. Sitting everyone who is dinged (but functional) would be a mistake, imho.
Stef&Crew must play individual players according to their specific situation. Some guys sit/some guys play more (an/or) less than others. Then, use this game to do what NFL winners have done for years against teams like the Browns: give your developmental players some real gametime NFL experience in prep for next year.

This is the very first time the Browns have been in this situation since The Return. They should take their cues from teams who have tons more experience finishing seasons like this.


.02

Not bad, for 4 weeks of work.
BUT:


-Something tells me that money isn't what's motivating this guy. He's playing like someone with something to prove.
I'm sure the money is a bonus, but his Family Wealth Portfolio is most likely already set for life.

Nope.

This Dude isn't playing high-stakes, year-end pro football for the money.
He's doing it because he believes in his heart that he is still The Game.
And we have him, at just the right time.
#lightninginabottle

I think #15 was 'antsy-waiting' on the couch, and would have responded with this much gusto for any NFL team who actually cared enough to reach out to him.
He's just that kind of guy.

76 Berea was that (only) team who reached out. We CLE fans are lucky enough to have a FO that actually did what 31 other NFL teams didn't... and now, we can see where that gamble has gifted us: A 38 year-old SB-winning QB with nothing to lose, everything to prove... and a new chapter to write for himself, before retirement.

If he could pull off an NFL championship as QB wearing the uniforms of both teams that had their start in 1946, it would be a story worthy of enshrinement in Canton.


In Joe We Trust.
Sling it, Big Boy...


_________________________


This season is melting my brain.

I haven't seen any rankings even close to this anywhere.

Me neither. Browns sitting here tempting me to lay down a decent wager. Just need one win and then hedge it as I see fit for strong profit, almost a no-brainer! As of this morning...

Probably not a bad idea. That's much closer to what I've been seeing too.

The most bets aren't the odds of wining a game. They are very different things. As far as power rankings go every actual betting site I've seen where money is involved are very close to what FATE posted. As he stated, he hasn't seen anything close to what you posted either.

CBS has them 9th in odds to win the SB.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...vens-as-favorites-before-playoffs-begin/

FOX too has them at ninth in odds to win the SB so I have no idea why their power ranking would differ from that so much.

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-odds-favorites-to-win-2023-24-super-bowl

USA today also has them ranked 9th.

https://www.usatoday.com/betting/sports/nfl-super-bowl-odds

I could go on to show you several more like this but pretty much everyone knows the Browns are generally placed 8th to 9th on most all of these lists.

That's what makes this a potentially lucrative betting opportunity. Once a team reaches the playoffs (in any sport) with odds above 25-1 (+2500), the math doesn't lie. You just have to risk the initial investment (or most of it) thru the first two rounds. I won money on the Cavs in their first Finals appearance. I placed the bet the very second I knew they would make the playoffs because they were 35-1 to win the 'chip. Most of the profit was decimated by the Spurs being such heavy favorites (and the Cavs being fairly heavy dogs in every series), but it was still guaranteed profit all the way through once we got past the first round. This is a much better situation. The Browns will never be a heavy dog after the division matchup, and you're not putting enough weight on that game for the negative odds to have an exponential effect moving forward.


Correct me where I'm wrong, Dawgs. I would like some of the gamblers to weigh in and tell me what I'm missing. The only thing that can thwart the plan, mathematically, is the Browns in a heavy underdog situation beyond the division round. I don't see how that is even possible. We will have likely beaten two division winners, one of them probably Baltimore.


Approach: Be willing to lose your $100 if you lose the first game (cost of admission).

Be willing to break even if you lose second game.

Capitalize on remaining odds to take escalating profit from that point forward (assuming you have won the first two).

Bet money line on all games.

Your initial bet is $100 on the Browns to win the Super Bowl at 35-1 (+3500)



Game one:

Browns LOSS -- $100 loss
WIN -- Most likely on to a better team on their turf. Probably Baltimore, so lets assume that's true and mock this out with the some probably crappy odds on that money line.


Division playoff:

Since you are always betting on the other team to hedge your bet, Baltimore will probably be -200 and leave you with a fat tax. Maybe not... depends on our first performance. Everyone in the world knows we've faired as well vs Lamar as just about anyone in the league. We'll still assume they're -200... BET 200 to win 100

Browns LOSS -- Break even overall
WIN -- you now have $300 invested and your remaining odds are essentially just under 12-1


AFC Championship:

If the Browns have knocked off two teams, including a (somewhat) heavy favorite, the odds will tighten significantly, Browns may very well be the favorite (good for you since you're betting on the other team). Let's assume we're still dawgs... can't see the money line being much worse than -130 for the opponent. And in all fairness, I think I've been very conservative to this point. Even with just the first wild card win the Browns will become the media darling and betters will flock to the feel good story -- keeping the money line stable (if not low) on the opponent. And even if the Ravens were heavier favorites, that bet doesn't take that much of a bite out of the math.

Bet 700 on opponent to win 530

Browns LOSS -- you win $230 overall
Browns WIN -- you're now invested at $1000 and have 3.5 -1 odds for the Super Bowl.


Super Bowl:

You've taken most of the upside off the bet in favor of clean profit. Odds should be very close if the Browns have slayed these giants. We'll still give the benefit of doubt and adhere to conservative... Opponent -120.

Bet 1800 to win 1500 on opponent.

Browns LOSS -- you win $500 overall (1500 payday after previous 1000 in losses)
Browns WIN -- you've now lost 2800 in all your game bets but win $3500 on the Browns Super Bowl win = $700 profit.

If you're loving the Browns and want to capitalize more on the win -- cut more profit out of the hedge bet -- Bet 1500 on the opponent to win 1250.

Browns LOSS -- you win a modest 250
Browns WIN -- you walk with a cool $1000 and to spend on hotel and party for the Super Bowl parade! 🤩


Also: Better money line odds (in the Browns favor) or the Browns being favored in either the AFCC or SB raises the profit potential significantly.

Huge upside, very little downside. I know it sounds intimidating laying out the extra money for the bets along the way but it's simple accounting and will be returned in the end.


Am I crazy?? Rish? Milk?

That is certainly one way to do it from a risk management approach to come out with a profit when betting on one team throughout the playoffs. The hotel and party for parade is a nice touch as well.

However, here's a more fun approach:

Take the allotted $2,800 and do the following:

Place $1400 on the Browns +1800 to win the AFC Championship. Collect your $25,200 and book a flight, hotel room (if you stay at Aria ask for the Billy Manziel suite) and Super Bowl ticket.

Place the other $1,400 on the Browns +3500 to win the Super Bowl. Upon conclusion of the Super Bowl and amongst the pandemonium of the Browns win, watch the $49,000 hit your account and go nuts in Vegas.

Place the bets now! It's the season of dreams.

That seems so much easier!

You gamblers fascinate me.
You have a jargon and vernacular all your own. I read your English, and it sounds like Klingon.

I was raised Baptist, so gambling is totally foreign to me. The numbers, the odds... gibberish. Can't find a way to make myself care. Moving money isn't what moves me.

BUT:

I love that there exists a myriad of ways in which we can all get our inner nerd on.

I've found my people.

Hey bro, it's been a pleasure reading through your recent posts today.

Are we having fun yet?! 😁

I couldn't agree more. I consider myself to be a fairly intelligent person, outside of trying to comprehend anything scientific, but some of the gambling lingo seems like cold fusion equations to me.

Steelers won but haven't clinched...what scenario keeps them out?

Bills win. I think.

Steelers get in with either a Bills or Jags loss.

I hate that the Stiller can slink back into the playoffs.
Go Bills, Go Jags.

We have to play some of them.

It’s been an experience, my friend Clemmy. It’s been a beautiful, surreal ride this year. Everything that could go wrong pretty much did, and yet this team just kept plowing forward, like it was oblivious to everything happening. These are the perfect collection of players and coaches for us at this place and time. I will enjoy it all, no matter what happens from here out this season.

Have they announced when they are going to start picking times for next weekend matchups?

Welp, the team I least wanted to play in the 1st round is the lock. Houston’s O looks like a poor man’s Ravens. Our D is going to have to dial it up. But let’s be real, our D is going to have to be lights out every step of the way.

Jags looked so delightfully incompetent, I was really rooting for them to pull it out, but nope.

It looks like if Buffalo gets a home game next weekend, they are going to be dealing with some shoveling.

Y’all see the seedlings? There’s no division winner who’s a lock to win their home game in the first round

Curious thing… looking at the brackets, if we win this game we play the Ravens next? I don’t know why I assumed we wouldn’t see them until AFC championship.

j/c...

Wasn't that a thing way back in the past? Division opponents wouldn't play until the League Championship??