DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Dow falls 1,100 points

maybe, maybe not. But, the stock market has to get itself under control. I feel bad for anyone that was planning on retiring in the next few months.

I feel sorry for them too. But we have a situation that goes deeper than just the stock market. 80% of our GDP comes from consumer spending. As I posted yesterday consumer spending and consumer confidence are both down. The threat of all these tariffs may help with consumer spending in the short term I can't say for sure. They may rush out and purchase things to try to beat the tariffs. But that will be a very short term band aid on the problem if trump can't get consumers to believe in the economy.

Things can change on a dime. The stock market fluctuates. I'm certainly not one who is going to predict long term doom and gloom here because that remains to be seen. I just know the tariff rhetoric has to stabilize and the average consumer will have to start spending more money again for this to turn around to any degree. The stock market is only one factor in how the economy is doing and certainly doesn't tell the entire story.

I can't even count all of the companies predicting sales and profit reductions for 2025. From Walmart on down to Target, Kohl's and so on. That's probably the single most concerning issue right now if it comes to pass.

Trump is great at bringing other people together against him. Canada and Greenland just elected their ANTIFA governments.

Actually the Canadian elections have not yet happened. All that happened is the party Trudeau belongs to replaced him as Prime Minister until the elections are held. The Canadian election will be held on or before October 25th.

Thanks, I just heard new PM and assumed.

Another 500 point tumble while the orange oaf bloviates about invading our neighbor for no good reason. Anybody in the market feeling all the winning yet? Lmao, they would be impeaching a dem by now.

I think it is something we have to go through IMO.

We have been riding the gravy train of a WWII win for 80 years. That is over now, it really was about 25 years ago. We have been printing and spending money to keep up the lifestyle.

We can't do that forever. There comes a point we have to face the facts.

Don't get me wrong. I don't think we are months or even a few years away from insolvency, but 10-20 years isn't out of the realm.

I get it, people don't like change, markets don't like change, but it is change that needed to start 20 years ago.

The markets will come back. I have seen this many times. For those of you who actively invest in the market, this is a good time to look for some plumbs.

Come on Swish, you are a savvy guy. Oil companies aren't going to build 3-4 more refineries to have them running at 50% capacity. They need them running at 80%, or whatever the number might be.

Big oil has a sweet spot for oil. I am not going to claim i know what that number might be. It a commodity, just like chicken eggs.

If it goes too low, oil companies can't make enough money to support the infrastructure in place to meet demand. If it goes too high, consumers begin to feel the squeeze.

When we say drill baby drill, it isn't necessarily to use the oil. It is to keep the price of imported oil inside the sweet spot. Even the threat of us pumping more is enough of a threat to keep commodity prices inside the sweet spot.

Gas prices are already dropping. It isn't because we are pumping more at this point. Just the threat we will is causing that.

Damn Peen? Is that you in your cheer gear?




I keep wondering how long it will take you to figure it out. My money is on the day you wake up and it’s all gone, everything you ever held dear, gone because of Trump. I hope for your family’s sake it doesn’t take that long, but you do you…

I appreciate that my friend. Nobody wants to see people ruined...at least I hope so.

No real worries here. In my younger years my goal was to own 10lbs of gold. Real coins, not some paper investment. Over a decade or so i managed to do that. If everything goes to Sh^#, I have easy access to that.

Not in a bank that can close, but in a real safe, in a real secure spot that I can access at any point

But, I am not worried about that. I agree, the markets don't look good right now because markets like stability. Things are moving at a very fast pace. Even faster than I imagined, but i am good with that because it needed to happen.

The amount of waste and potential corruption, not just dems, but systemic corruption is staggering to anybody who listens with an open mind.

It's pretty sickening to be honest and some of the biggest bombs are yet to be dropped.


Plus, that isn't my shade of pink and my beard is much grayer.

Time for a reality check Ballpeen. I'll bypass the statement that the gravytrain is over implying that the USA is not going to be great again and hasn't been for 25 years.

I'll simply point out that - without a shadow of a doubt - if the DOW had slumped under Biden, and the right wing media was spewing out a constant message that Biden and the communists had tanked the economy. . . . you would NEVER have written the above post.

I suspect that you would have written a post regurgitating the media talking points, there's no way to know. But I can say with certainty, no way you would write that same get out of jail post alleviating all responsibility from Biden and insinuating that it was just one of those things.

And right or wrong regards the need for a correction - it gives Trump a pass on the instability he has brought and the madness of a global trade war that benefits no-one. Did you see the report on washing machine prices in Trump term 1? Job increases in the USA at a staggering cost. $820,000 per job. Just plain dumb. Consumers are the people that pay - a very few benefit.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/trum...-a-yuge-cost-to-consumers-of-820000-job/

https://www.slowboring.com/p/tariffs-inflation

Back in January of 2018, the Trump administration announced new tariffs on washing machines. A tariff is just a tax. In particular, it’s a kind of sales tax. And if Trump had imposed an across-the-board federal sales tax on washing machines, people would have lost their [censored]. But this wasn’t an across-the-board sales tax; it’s a sales tax just on imported washing machines, which makes it a tariff.

When you think about it, though, limiting the sales tax to foreign-made washers doesn’t actually change the situation very much. An across-the-board tax would raise the price of washers across the board. With a focused tax, there is more nuance. In 2016, for example, we put some tariffs on Chinese-made washers which seems to have mostly just led American retailers to import more washers from Korea, while the Chinese-made washers went to wherever the Korean washers used to go. But in 2018, Trump really got serious with broad tariffs on all foreign washers, which raised the price of washers in the United States by about 12%. Notably, the price of American-made washers went up even though they weren’t taxed — our companies took advantage of the higher prices of foreign washers to raise their prices and profit margins.

An interesting academic finding from Aaron Flaaen, Ali Hortaçsu, and Felix Tintelnot was that it also made dryers more expensive even though there were no tariffs on dryers, because apparently the structure of the market is such that the prices of these things move in tandem.

Now what did not happen was an explosion of manufacturing jobs in washing machine factories. That doesn’t necessarily mean the policy was a failure per se. It’s possible that absent tariffs, competition from cheaper imports would have driven American factories to reduce production or even close. Beyond that, if profit margins for washer manufacturing remained elevated for a while, we would expect additional capital to flow into the washer manufacturing sector and thus create jobs.

In either case, though, it’s not just that tariffs push up prices but that the putative benefits of tariffs require high prices to work.

Sorry my friend. Had the markets slumped under President Biden had he been doing some of the things we now see to limit spending and
exposing waste and fraud, I would be saying the same things.

As for tariffs, I agree with them and the President. We face restrictive tariffs on products we produce yet barely tax products we import. It just isn't balanced. Some countries don't even allow us to export various goods to their country.

I see it as protecting American workers just like other countries seek to protect their workers. We have lost millions of jobs because it became cheaper to manufacture overseas and export back to the USA rather than produce at home.

I agree it is disruptive, and it won't work in the long run if manufacturing doesn't return to this country. I think it will but it isn't going to happen over a few months. There is going to be some pain involved.

as we all know, that's not an easy feat

Let me ask you Peen, if Musk is really finding all of this "waste and fraud", why is it that they are fighting not to release their actual records in court? Why are they just making claims about what they are doing and not being transparent?

You see, I can't think of a single person that is against finding and cutting waste and fraud. But do you think going into an agency and suddenly writing letters to thousands of employees claiming they aren't doing a good job is the way to do that without it actually being true? Or are you suggesting a bunch of code writers can audit and find actual waste and fraud in a couple of days and conclude that all of these workers aren't doing their jobs?

You're not a dumb man. You know that to go through an actual audit takes time. You know that to actually do the job Musk claims to be doing takes forensic accountants pouring over the books. None of that is happening.

Is cutting of aid to starving children waste and fraud? Is gutting the park service waste and fraud? Is cutting off fresh food from local farmers waste and fraud? You do understand how much that hurts local farmers too don't you?

Several times now they have been in such a rush to cut these jobs that they have mistakenly fired essential workers they have had to try to call back. Why? Because they are not qualified to do the job they claim to be doing. This has all been a cluster fudge.

I'm not quite sure why you would bless this being done in such a manner. Don't you think that in a normal world they would have forensic accountants, you know people who are trained and educated to do this job, doing this job? Because this haphazard and crazy way they have unqualified people doing this isn't how in any way normal people would condone it be done.

Why do you give a process like that the green light? Is it that you don't care if it's being done wrong as long as it's being done? That we have to start somewhere so let's start by doing it wrong?

Do I care....yes...but not so much I would look to stop the process.

The federal government is bloated by thousands of people. Tens of thousands.

Are some good people being let go...I am sure that is happening to some degree. The reality is there isn't time to do a work study on tens of thousands of people. You just have to make your cuts.

I think the Covid work at home deal proves this. I don't care what anybody says, a person working at home doesn't put in the same amount of hours as they would at the office. Productivity has to drop. My guess is by 1/3. If they can get their job done and chop maybe 15-20 hours off the work week, we have too many people on the job.

Keep an eye on Act Blue. It's going to be crazy when that laundering operation comes to light.

Look man, I don't blame you or anyone else for voting for Dems, but your party is looking dirtier and dirtier by the day.

Keep an eye on Hunter. A week or so ago he went before a judge saying he couldn't pay his restitutions because he didn't have the money.

Now he is in S Africa on a 3 month vacation in a hotel where rooms start at $500 a night. Broke people look for the $50 a night hotel. And oddly Zelenskyy has said he is going to visit S. Africa in a week or so....hmmmm

Z says it is to discuss the peace deal between Russia and Ukraine....lol no doubt S Africa has been a big player in this...geesh.

I know you can add.

Here's the bottom line. You don't care if the wrong people are fired. You don't care that instead of actually catting waste and fraud they just cut jobs to cut them. You don't care if they stop sending food to starving children. You don't care of the people doing this have zero experience or are in any way educated to do this job. As long as the process doesn't stop?

Who said anything about stopping the cut of government waste and fraud? The only difference between us is I want it done by people qualified to do the job in the right way and you don't give a damn who does it or how it gets done.




At this point you're so far gone that you're beyond help.

I don’t even know where to begin…

How do you not see they’re making a straw man out of the fed workers? I mean, seriously. Let’s say they fire us all…deficit needle still barely gets moved. The way they are doing it, and the approach to which you just agreed with says that, basically, if you need to lose weight, it’s fine to cut off your leg because there’s probably some fat in there, right? You seem to have the ivory tower issue because you mention things like “I don’t care why people say…” and you have strong opinions, but you have zero idea what it’s like experiencing this from within.

It’s “Boomeritis.” “Yeah, I know we had it easy, and lived through the sharp rise in American economic strength, and then drove it into crippling debt, but this next generation of workers needs to buck up! I’ll sit here and enjoy myself and my now-extinct pension and wag my finger at all these people who are just complaining all the time.”

The funny thing is that the fed employee culling is another distraction in a long line of distractions that 45/47 has thrown out to his constituents. And you guys buy into it ever. single. time. It’s amazing to watch how people will contort themselves into believing something is the right solution because of who came up with it, rather than what it’s actually doing.

Has culling the workforce produced any good results so far? Last I checked, we’re still increasing the deficit. If at the end of all this DOGE business, our deficit and spending still goes up, what would you say then?

There are SO many other areas we should be focusing on. I’ve already named them, but none of them fit the bill of feeding ignorant minds like building up a contorted, false image of a lazy federal employee, all while POTUS spends $3.1M heading back to MaL for what I’m sure will involve plenty of time to golf.

We’ve been tasked with trying to find ways to eliminate employees while the drunk talk show host has said in the same vein that “We need to protect our industry.” So we will be sending more money to the oh-so-efficient contractors like Boeing to keep wasting your money with absolute impunity.

And working from home being less efficient? You don’t care what people say…well maybe that’s the problem. That’s the boomer attitude. Facts and stats be damned. I’m far less efficient now than I ever was during COVID. Takes me half an hour or so just to get through the damn gate at work. Check my laptop outside work hours now? Nope. Can’t telework at all. More focused at the office? Nope. Gotta figure out a way to send in five bullet points per week at work to the right email (because there are two) and phrasing it in such a way that it can’t accumulate into divulgence if classified data. We spend so much time responding to the whimsical nature of this admin that our end users, the warfighters, are far worse off.

My daughter who is a CPA for a major heavy equipment manufacturer still works from home four days a week. She only goes into the office on Mondays. Why? Both their profits and worker efficiency increased when their people started working from home. Some people simply refuse to let facts get in their way.

BTW- Zelenskyy isn't set to visit South Africa until April 10th.

Peen's post is what it looks like when you allow someone else to connect the dots for you.

OK...I said a week or so,. You got me. If that is what you have in reply...cool.

My point still stands.

You didn't make any point.

The funny thing is I wouldn’t even mind going in a couple days a week. What they’re doing now is extremism to diminish morale to try and get us to leave without severance.

Even with the Dow being up almost 650 points on Friday, it was still the worst week in 2 years. And the futures are back down in early futures for tomorrow

I got out of the markets. I want it to go down for a while longer and then buy the dip on the way back up. I'm not sure that will happen though, my financial advisor thinks it's about done with the pullback.

should've just held what you had and stack cash until we get close to whatever the bottom is. we've all been around long enough to see whats gonna happen, whether a few months or few years, the market will rebound.

This has got to be one of the larger collections of falsehoods and overall stupidity that I think I've seen on this site.

You have no idea on who/what the bloat is. Neither does DOGE... if they did, they wouldn't be firing nuclear arsenal personnel and ATC and then scrambling to hire them back.

WFH works for many people and many jobs. Not all. Your assertion here has no basis in fact or even common sense.

I'm not even going to get into the conspiracy theories. Your posts are unreadable right now with the amount of willful ignorance.

Sadly you are correct. It's a shame as I like Peen when he's choosing to engage his brain and have coherent thoughts that aren't spewing the trumptard agenda.

Laughable trumptard post. So you voted for Trump - knew he'd crash the market and sold? Yeah - I believe you 100%. Trumptards gonna Trumptard I guess.

I'm no stock market expert guy... but you either need to be confident jumping in and out of a very volatile market (whiplashing up and down like crazy), or be confident that the stuff that has the markets spooked (tariffs and other shenanigans) is largely over.

The absolute fact is no-one can "time" the markets. Anyone claiming otherwise is lying.

I moved about 20% to safer havens around Feb 1st and when trump started with the EO's and doge, I moved another 50-55% to bonds and cash around mid Feb. So, other than an index fund and a low risk growth fund-I am in safer place.

I would think that it would be very premature to go with what your advisor says about the bottom being close-I don't think we are near a bottom yet-mainly due to what trump does-We don't have the first big jobs report-that comes out early April, we don't have quarterlies from the companies on how the tariffs are affecting forward guidance, we do not have rosy numbers on consumer spending, inflation is not cooling at all and the market had a great run since covid-there is lots of room down.

IIRC, during Trump's last term (before COVID) the markets exhibited similar instability (record dips followed by record gains and so on).

Yes, and in many areas-trump had grown-ups in the room in his first term to move his attention on from the stupid suggestions-He seems to have a bunch of bootlickers who will just keep saying "sounds good boss" to every stupid whim.

I think this round is going to be much more instable-in pretty much every area-including the economy.

lol …you voted to go through this not half of US. Good lord is there nothing that trump puts US through offend you? Geez you Goper’s crack me up.

I didn't say those things, but by all means keep making up BS. Libtards gotta libtard. Pfffft.

Another +400 day so far… and that’s after Trump sent possible Americans and Venezuelans to a mega prison in Nicaragua after invoking war powers… yep, the billionaires cashed the shorts, back to business as normal until they can’t deny the damage Trump and Elon are doing to profits.

today it is about fresh excitement that there will be rate cuts this year because retail sales are falling off and other uncertainly with the tariffs

Why would there be rate cuts with inflation still not totally under control.

Because Trump is tanking the economy.

So far in the month or so that Trump has been in office, the price of gas is at a 4 year low and inflation is down as well. I'm not seeing the economy tank. The market is volatile because of fear and not really any measurable economic factor. People are scared due to the fearmongering by the libtard media about tariffs. But it hasn't tangibly affected anything yet.