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J/C

None of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts (conference championship game QBs) threw for 4,000 yards last year. Hurts didn't even break 3,000. Eagles won the Super Bowl.

Jameis Winston threw for more than 5,000 yards in 2019 and missed the playoffs. Raw numbers don't tell the whole story. You can cherry pick numbers to "support" any narrative.

You're missing the point.

Nobody said Chubb or Dalvin Cook were not good players. That doesn't mean you cannot have a 4,000 yd passer. Quite the contrary.

Two items on last year's 4,000 yd passers: 1) 6 QB's threw or over 4,000 yds and all had a 1,000 yd rusher or tandem. 4 made the playoffs which is 67%. 2) As far as cherry picking goes, you are quick to point out that Mahomes and Allen were not 4,000 yd passers last year but were in the playoffs which you are correct. What you didn't say or just ignored was both Mahomes and Allen were 4,000 yd passers each of the previous 4 years and made the playoffs. That's an 80% hit on making the playoffs from those two gentlemen when they throw for 4,000 yds or more which falls exactly in line with my statement.

As far as Winston goes, the statement was 9.2 QB's over the last 5 years threw for 4,000 yds or more during a season. 7 of those players (50% of the playoff spots) made the playoffs on average the last 5 years. Nowhere in that statement was it said that 100% of the 4,000 yd passes make the playoffs. The actual number is 74.4% of the time they will make the playoffs while non 4,000 yd passers (22.8 teams average) only have a 30.9% of making the other 7 playoff spots.

Last I checked, Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, Brady, Love, Burrow, and Rodgers all played in similar or worse conditions than the Browns and had 4,000 yd passers with and without 1,000 yd rushers and made the playoffs. In fact, in 22 seasons, Brady made the playoffs 20 times with 14 of those seasons being more than 4,000 yds (70%). Also, Brady threw for more than 4,000 yds in 10 of his last 11 seasons "mostly in bad weather."

The whole point is that having a 4,000 yd passer gives you a 74.4% chance of sealing 50% of the playoff spots with or without a 1,000 yd rusher. If you don't have that passer, your odds decrease to 25.6% for the remaining 7 playoff spots over a 5-year average because 25 teams are competing for those 7 other slots.

Each year is independent and reaching arbitrary numbers is meaningless. Selected past numbers aren't as predictive as you try to make them on their own. What's "held true" in the past won't necessarily hold going forward. The game is more complex than that. Percentages and trends change. I also think you're playing a little loose with the difference between causation and correlation.

It's also near impossible to have a 4000 yard passer when your QBs are playing less than half a season each. Both Flacco and Winston had stretches where they were on pace to exceed 4k if projected out to 17 games under Stefanski.

Turnover +/- is probably a better indicator.

What he lacks in context and perspective, he makes up for with long posts.

I haven’t built a premise that the team has a better chance of making the playoffs without a 4,000 yard passer. I’m just living in the reality that 65% of the league doesn’t have a 4,000 yard passer… including the Browns currently. Having a team that can win without one is the better plan than pretending one is going to magically throw for 4,000 yards and not being prepared when he doesn’t.

Yeah, when you go through two, three or four QB's in a season, none of them will be 4000 yard passers. That seems to be a factor left out of his equation.

the amount of week 1 starters we've had since 1999 is so disheartening (heck, even going back to 2010)

You do realize 4,000 yds per season averages to about 235 yds per game. If your team's run game averages 125 - 150 yds, that is about 360 - 385 total offense.

To achieve those numbers, your team needs a strong defense, allowing your offense to make those yards.

Sometimes teams play from behind because of a weak defense. They accumulate passing yardage playing catch-up. This reduces the run game numbers.

Having a 4,000-yard QB is not a recipe for winning.

In my opinion, you need efficiency and red-zone scoring to be successful. Defining specific yardage does not yield much.

Except, that over the last 5-years, having a 4,000 yd passer gives you a 74.4% chance of claiming a playoff spot. Over that last 5-years, 9.2 passers per year threw for 4,000 yds and an average of 7 made the playoffs. The stats clearly show that the premise of playing from behind is unfounded due to the high percentage of those teams making the playoffs with winning records. Does it happen, of course it does. As far as running goes, that's displaced too since, for example, all six players who threw for 4,000 yds plus in 2024 had a 1,000 yd rusher or tandem. In 2023, 9 of the 10 had a 1,000 yd rusher or tandem. It's also pretty consistent in the previous years. It does not have to affect the run game numbers. Henry had over 1,800 yds rushing in 2024 with Jackson throwing for over 4,000 yds for example.

A 1000 yard rusher means they averaged just under 59 yards rushing per game over the course of a 17 game season. The NFL doesn't play 12 game seasons anymore.

I don't think having a 1000 yard rusher means what you think it means.

You keep using the present tense when talking about the past. You also keep using an active verb which implies causation.

A team having a 4,000 yard passer ended up in a playoff spot 74.4 % of the time during your time frame. But, there's no direct causation between the two. Most of the league leans toward the passing game. The better teams make the playoffs. Is it the arbitrary yardage number, or is it simply the fact that they're the better team and they happen to pass a lot? Good teams also tend to play from ahead which allows them to run more.

You still haven't proven whether teams that have a QB who throws 4000 yds are the reason they make the playoffs.

I can conclude that teams with a pass rusher who has over 12 sacks in a season have a high probability of making the playoffs. In the last five Super Bowls, KC, LA, TB, and Philly had the pass rusher! That's 100%!

Where I took my numbers from was the most productive league passers (using 4,000 yds as a base) in yardage each season for 5 years and the probability of them making the playoffs. That number produced a factor of 74.4% probability over that 5-year period. That high of a probability factor certainly weighs heavily in that team's ability to secure a playoff spot - on average 50% of the slots over 5-years.

In your pass rusher scenario, you arbitrarily picked a sack number that would include your players to make the point. However, if you were truthful and not cherry picking - you would have picked a baseline to only include the elite pass rushers and their performance in sacks contributing to a playoff position. For example (using a baseline of 14.0):

in 2024, only Hendrickson CIN (17.5) and Garrett (14.0) met the base and NEITHER made it to the playoffs. 0-2
In 2023, 7 players met the baseline of 14: JJ Watt PIT (19.0), Hendrickson CIN (17.5), Mack LAC (17.0), Hunter MIN (16.5), Crosby LVR (14.5), Parsons DAL (14.0), and Garrett CLE (14.0).
Of the seven, only 3 - JJ Watt PIT, Parsons DAL, and Garrett CLE made the playoffs. The other 4 did not. 3-7
In 2022, 5 players met the baseline of 14: Bosa SFO (18.5), Reddick PHI (16.0), Jones KCC (15.5), Judson NEP (15.5), and Highsmith PIT (14.5). Of the five, only 3 - Bosa SFO, Reddick PHI, and Jones KCC made the playoffs. 3-5
In 2021, 5 players met the baseline of 14: JJ Watt PIT (22.5), Quinn CHI (18.5), Garrett CLE (16.0), Bosa SFO (15.5), and Hendrickson CIN (14.0). Of the five, only 3 - JJ Watt PIT, Bosa SFO, and Hendrickson CIN made the playoffs. 3-5
In 2020, only JJ Watts met the baseline of 14 with 15.0 sacks. PIT made the playoffs. 1-1

The five-year totals are 10-20. Of the top pass rushers over a 5-year period, only 50% of their teams made the playoffs.

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/offense/rushing/2024/reg/all

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/defense/rushing/2024/reg/all

As much as the game has changed the fundamentals remain the same. Running the football and stopping the run. Teams that do those two things the best are always top teams. If you look at total yards rushing as a team stats last year 5 of the top 6 teams and 7 of the top 10 were all playoff teams. And 9 of the top 10 teams rushing defenses all made the playoffs.

Rush the ball and stop the run. That was the Steelers philosophy since 1970 when Chuck Noll was the coach and they've been consistently competitive over the years. Their record and championships in that time are proof.

Go figure. The most productive QBs make the playoffs regularly.

How often does the most productive passer (by yardage) win the Superbowl? From the formation of the league through 2020, it never happened. (Brady did do it in Tampa)

Only looking at 5 years, and only looking at QBs over your arbitrary number leaves you with a rather small sample size.

Having one QB for an entire season goes a long way in allowing a team's QB to reach 4k.

I imagine teams that had no QB start more than 7 games in a season almost never make the playoffs. Again, go figure.

Elite QBs make the playoffs. Unfortunately, there are only so many elite QBs. We probably could have gotten 4k yards passing playing Winston all year, but also would have had a ridiculous number of turnovers. Teams with elite QBs throw more (effectively.) It's not the 4k yards itself, it's that the good/great QBs get there effectively. If a QB is throwing a bunch of picks, they usually get benched.

Not sure a 5 year period does a study justice, lets look at 10 years:

In 10 years, 36 QBs have achieved 4000 yard seasons
Name #season playoffs # years pro
Tua Tagovailoa 1 1 5
Joe Burrow 3 2 5
Baker Mayfield 2 2 7
Geno Smith 2 1 10
Jared Goff 5 3 9
Sam darnold 1 1 7
Lamar Jackson 1 1 7
Dak Prescott 3 2 9
Josh Allen 4 4 7
Brock Purdy 1 1 3
Patrick Mahomes 6 6 8
Jordan Love 1 1 4
CJ Stroud 1 1 2
Trevor Lawrence 2 1 4
Justin Herbert 3 1 5
Tom Brady 7 7 8
Kirk Cousins 7 2 10
Matthew Stafford 5 2 10
Derek Carr 4 1 10
Aaron Rodgers 5 4 10
Deshaunn Watson 2 1 7
Matt Ryan 6 2 8
Russell Wilson 4 4 10
Philip Rivers 6 2 6
Jameis Winston 3 0 10
Carson Wentz 1 1 9
Ben Roethlisberger 2 1 7
Andrew Luck 2 1 3
Eli Manning 3 1 5
Drew Brees 3 1 6
Alex Smith 1 1 6
Joe Flacco 1 0 10
Carson Palmer 2 1 3
Andy Dalton 1 0 10
Blake Bortles 1 0 5
Ryan Tannehill 1 0 9
Totals 103 60
58.5% playoffs

Sorry that I couldn't post this better, but the numbers don't necessarily back up your argument. If anyone can tell me how to post a spreadsheet, I'll fix this.

There are only TWO names on this list that show you that you can say there is a correlation between 4,000 yards passing and the playoffs. Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes..

Recent names like Josh Allen, has made the playoffs whether throwing for 4,000 yards or not..

Philip Rivers made the 4,000 yard club 6 times out of 6 years in this study, but only made the playoffs 2 times during those years.

Again, I wish the chart were better laid out, but please explain these numbers in better detail to show where your theory holds any water...