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Yeah, one week to go, but so what.

Gotta start by saying you can't judge players based on their rookie year. There are just too many variables, such as the surrounding talent and the learning curve of each position. However, in terms of rookie play I got curious and thought I'd share. This is my first day since a week before Christmas where I got to stay home on a day off and just watch football and screw with you buncha hacks

1) Lions: Stafford. Shows off the big arm (as the scouts predicted) while making some really idiotic mistakes (as the scouts predicted). For a QB who came out a year early to a bad team, his numbers are predictable:

Only 10 starts due to injury. 201 of 377 (53%) for 2267 yards, 13 TD's 20 INT's 24 sacks for a 61 rating.

Those aren't very good numbers. 20 INT's in only 10 starts projects to a very bad 32 INT's over a 16 game schedule. All in all, it hasn't been a very good year for Stafford, but he has to take his lumps as he gets experience.

2) Rams: LT Jason Smith. Every year it seems that there's one really good left tackle prospect coming out. Well, Smith ain't no Joe Thomas. He's played in only 8 games, starting only 5, none at left tackle. When you're a highly-touted #2 overall left tackle taken in a draft, you MUST be able to beat out Alex Barron at left tackle. A concussion ended his season prematurely a couple of weeks ago. All in all, his rookie year, like Staffords, has been a failure.

3) Chiefs: DE Tyson Jackson. He was supposed to be a real force at DE for the Chiefs as he switched to the 3-4. In 15 games (13 starts) he's put up 24 solo tackles with 11 assists and zero sacks.

Not exactly great output for for a five-year $57 million dollar contract. While teams cannot expect significant sack production from 3-4 DE's, he hasn't given the Chiefs a ton for their money this season.

Well............so far that's about $180 million dollars in three contracts, and all three have been disappointments at best. It's hard to call Stafford and that 61 rating the best of the three. *L*

4) Seahawks: OLB Aaron Curry. Curry was touted as the safest of player to come out of this draft (except for me. I said that was Crabtree ) which was a fair assessment at the time by the vast majority of accounts. In 14 games (12 starts) he's put up solid rookie numbers, but nothing overwhelming: 61 total tackles and 2 sacks with 6 passes defensed. The scuttlebutt is that when Totupu went down so did Curry's production because he became lost. He's shown flashes of why he was so highly thought of, but he's also made some poor decisions. In short, he's a rookie and acting like a rookie. I do remember there was a great debate about him on these boards because he never rushed the passer in college, yet some felt he had great rush potential. In the Seahawks 4-3, we don't know the answer to that question. All in all, he's not a disappointment, but he's not setting the world on fire either. His upside is still there, though.

5) Jets: QB Mark Sanchize. Now THIS pick was one we all had to keep our eyes on, hehe. He decided to chase the money and strike while the iron was hot. Considering that he came out after what was really nothing more than one seasons worth of college starts as an under-classman, his results have also been predictable and very comparable to Stafford. The big difference between he and Stafford is that Mark landed behind some talent on the offensive line while having Thomas Jones taking the rock 20+ times a game. That's been a HUGE help to a guy that shows the tools which were hyped, but also shows the inexperience as he's made some laughable decisions. His numbers:

14 starts, 54% comp rate, 2381 yards, 12 TD's 20 INT's for a 63 rating. He has coughed it up 10 times, however, on only 26 sacks. The Jets are in the playoff hunt not because of him, but in spite of him. It helps to have the #1 defense (by an UNBELIEVABLE 26 yards per game!) and #1 rushing game in the league Those are exactly what you'd expect from a guy in his situation. He does have all the tools and should get better.

6) Bengals: OT Andre Smith. Despite being touted as having a great skillset, there were all kinds of flags about Smith. From ditching the combine because he was doing horribly in all the drills, to showing off a bigger rack than a Playboy Playmate while flopping down the track at his pro-day, Smith looked like bust potential. He decided to hold out, becoming the next-to-last guy to sign. A broken bone in his foot derailed an already bad rookie year (my foot would break too if it had to support some 360 pounds of what is hardly all muscle), as he played in 5 games starting only 1. He does have all kinds of potential but he showed why all the flags were present. The Bengals better hope he doesn't drown his sorrows in a vat of melted twinkies in the off-season.

7) Raiders: WR Darius Heyward-bey. Oh that tricky (ok, predictably sad) Al Davis, reaching way WAY back into his way-back machine and drafting for speed instead of, you know, talent With other more qualified and accomplished receivers rated ahead of Heyward-Bey, he none-the-less went FAR earlier than projected. Despite having track speed, his hands and route-running were suspect, to be kind about it. Now granted, when you have Russell throwing you the rock, you don't stand much of a chance of succeeding, but even with that built-in excuse, his rookie season has been an absolute bust:

11 games, 11 starts. 9 catches for 124 yards with 1 TD.

Ouch.

Now I don't know what he ended up with, but he stood a very real chance of doing something that I never thought would happen from a 1st round rookie receiver: More actual drops than receptions during his rookie season At one point, Heyward-Bey had more drops (8) than receptions (6). Your guess is as good as mine as to whether or not he managed to even the ledger up.

Good job, Al. 'Nuff said. Moving on.

8) Jags: OT Eugene Monroe. We're going to get a look at him this week. He's played in 14 games, starting 12. He's played very well as a rookie at times and been so bad he was benched at one point. Despite that, they've stuck by him. He was a good-but-not-great prospect coming out, which has been reflected in his up-and-down year. However, the Jags have kept him in there while sitting veteran LT Tra Thomas. For the 3rd rated LT coming out, he's had an alright rookie season.

9) Packers: DT BJ Raji. Raji has the size the Packers wanted to man their new 3-4 defense at 6'2 337. He came out as a very highly touted prospect who was very physical with a nasty streak. That hasn't helped him break into the starting lineup though, as he's played in 13 games, starting 1. 23 tackles and 1 sack later, he's had an up-and-down year, but has been playing much better lately. He looks like he's going to turn into a beast.

10) Niners: WR Michael Crabtree. Touted as the best receiver coming out, he held-out until well-into the season, drawing a ton of ire. Having missed all of camp and part of the year, it was thought his rookie year would be a washout. However, that hasn't been the case. In 10 starts, he's put up 45 catches for 567 yards with 2 TD's. Those numbers would work out to a 16-game season of 72 catches and 907 yards. With QB's named Shaun Hill and Alex Smith throwing him the ball, he's had rather good production. He looks like a keeper (and I look like a little smarter ).

11) Bills: DE Aaron Maybin. Welcome to the steroid era in the NFL. Is it wrong of me to go there? Yeah, well, it's my thread. Suck it Just like the suspicions surrounding Merrimen when he came out after he put on a crazy amount of muscle in just a couple of months time then later tested for 'Roids, Maybin suddenly showed up to his workouts having put on a huge amount of muscle in an impossibly short amount of time. He looked like the next workout-warrior fueled by modern medicine. So what have the Bills gotten for their high-investment?

Crap, that's what: In 15 games Maybin has the Bills exactly 0 sacks to go with his paltry 16 tackles. With the 11th pick in the draft, this amount of production is totally underwhelming. It's a little early to call him a bust, but he better become a viable starter next year.

12) Broncos: RB Knowshon Moreno. With the reputation the Donks had with churning out 1000-yard backs, people expected Moreno to be an instant hit. Of course those were the Shannahan days. Moreno is having a solid season, as he's played in all 15-games with 9 starts, compiling 897 yards and 25 catches. However, he's only averaging 3.8 yards per carry. The interior of the Donks line is experienced but lacking in ability. Still, that's solid production from a rookie back.

13) Redskins: DE/OLB Brian Orakpo. I wondered if he'd be able to transition to OLB, but in many instances they've used him as a pure DE. His numbers have exceeded expectations, having played in and started all 15 games, chalking up 48 tackles and 11 sacks. His numbers do look a little better than his up-and-down play because of the sacks, but he's had a great rookie season.

14) Saints: DB Malcolm Jenkins. Cornerback is one of the most difficult positions for rookies to transition to in the NFL. The Saints needed corners and Jenkins has played well at times and not-so well at times. He started out as the dime, getting his first start when the Saints CB's starting dropping like flies. He's been the starter ever since. By most accounts, he's had a rookie season that most would expect, but has been picked on as of late. He's been a big-hitter on special teams and has been a good tackler. Looks like a solid pick.

15) Texans: LB Brian Cushing. The Texans hit gold with Cushing. He's stepped right in from the start and lit the league up with his play-making: 128 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 forced-fumbles, and 4 INT's. Say hi to yet another Texans Rookie of The Year. Just a great selection.

16) Chargers: OLB Larry English. English should thank Shawne Merriman's antics and drug-use, because it elevated his draft status onto a team that could go deeply into the playoffs. However, he really hasn't been a force on the field with 28 total tackles and only 2 sacks. Granted, he's only started 1 game but played in all of'em. He has shown some ability but isn't in the same class as the really good 3-4 OLB's in the league, at least not yet. We'll know more once he's the full-time starter after Merriman moves on at the end of the year.

17) Bucs: QB Josh Freeman. Freeman came into the league as a freakishly-gifted athlete, but not as a gifted QB. I believed Freeman wasn't worthy of being taken any sooner than the back-end of the 2nd round because he couldn't read defenses in college. That rawness has shown in the NFL during his 8 starts, as he's posted some pretty-bad numbers: 55% comp rate, 1680 yards, 9 TD's and 16 INT's. He also has 10 fumbles. When your full-season projections come out to 32 INT's and 20 fumbles, you're having a rough go of it. He has shown all the tools to be great, but he's also shown the flaws to be a bust. Time will tell, but he's taking his rookie lumps.

18) Broncos: LB Robert Ayers. The Donks took him based on the belief he'd be a solid player because of his Senior season. He was a disappointment previous years at Tennessee. As a rookie, he's been MIA, having only started one game, amassing 18 total tackles. Much of that is simply because he hasn't earned any playing time. Not much to add about him because there's very little to judge.

19) Eagles: WR Jeremy Maclin. He's had an outstanding rookie season, giving the Eagles 52 catches for 715 yards and 4 TD's. It's helped having McNabb throwing him the ball, but he looks like yet another homerun for the Eagles in the WR department.

20) Lions: TE Brandon Pettigrew. Before he went down for the year with an injury, Pettigrew was having an up-and-down year for the perpetually down Lions. He did put up 30 catches for 346 yards in 11 games, which would have equated out to a solid rookie season. To be 6'5 and 265 with those hands and moves, he looks like a long-term keeper at the TE position, which will be vital for the development of Stafford. For once, maybe the Lions have finally put together a pair of skill-position pass-catchers in Pettigrew and Megatron.

21) Browns: C Alex Mack. Mangini took a ton of heat for trading down so many times while passing on higher profiled players at other positions of need. Mack started out the season as the undeserved starter, but such was a move built for the future, not the present. He played like a rookie to start the year, looking lost in his line-calls and not even knowing how to shotgun-snap. However, over the last half of the season, he's been vastly improved. Wait...........What the Hell am I doing? You all know this one already. *L*

22) Vikings: WR Percy Harvin. Many people opined that Harvin may be too small to make in the NFL, and that he was simply a product of Urban Meyer's offense. However, he went to a perfect offense (WCO) with the perfect QB (Favre) in the perfect climate (Dome) for his game. The results have been excellent. He's had Migraine issues, but has played in 14 games, starting 7. He's given the Vikings 53 catches for 731 catches and 6 TD's. The cherry on top of the sundae is what Harvin has given them pro-bowl caliber kickoff-return numbers: 42 for 1156 yards (27 YP average) with 2 TD's. He was simply a great selection by the Vikings.

23) Ravens: OT MIchael Oher. Oher's story is known by everyone. By most accounts he's a helluva guy. He's started all 15 games as a rookie RT, and been part of the reason Ray Rice has gotten his rocks off. However, Oher has had an up-and-down year, which isn't a surprise. He should be a good tackle on the right side for many years.

24) Falcons: DT Peria Jerry. He played in only 2 games with 1 tackle before blowing out his knee. It's a bad break for both he and the team. He's expected back to start the 2010 season.

25) Dolphins: CB Vontae Davis. The younger brother of Niners TE Vernon Davis, Vontae is every bit as physically gifted, if not quite the stature of Vernon. Because his numbers were good and he was all big-ten, he elected to enter the draft after his Junior year. He's been a big hit for the Dolphins, playing in 15 games, starting 8, making 49 tackles and picking off 4 passes. He's almost 6' and is 200 pounds, but runs a sub 4.5 in the 40. He also is known to be very strong, having pumped out 25 reps in the bench at the combine, resulting in him being a physical hitter. Great pick by the Fish late in the 1st.

26) Packers: LB Clay Mathews. JR. Yeah, we know. He's been a great player for the Packers. What a draft they had, eh? In 12 starts, he's got 57 tackles and 10 sacks, and has shown he can play all over the field. I'd imagine the less I say about him the better, suffice it to say he looks like a future pro-bowler.

27) Colts: RB Donald Brown. The Colts haven't been thrilled with Joseph Addai, so they elected to draft another weapon to compliment/replace him. Brown has dealt with injuries, and hasn't exactly lit up the league during his 10 games. He only has 74 carries for 284 yards (a pedestrian 3.9 YPC) and 3 TD's. If he can get healthy, he'll be an important piece for the Colts heading into the playoffs. Otherwise, it's next year for Brown, and their 1st round pick didn't give them much this year. He was really an investment in the future, which is what great teams can afford to do.

28) Bills: C Eric Wood. There was a debate as to which Center should be taken first. Many lamented that we didn't have to take Mack as early as we did, but much of that talk has been silenced because of how much he's improved. Wood's play mirrored Mack's, as he started out slowly but got better as the year went on. He looked solid until he broke both his tibia and fibia in the 10th game. Obviously, he's done for the year. However, he looks much like Mack, in that he appears to be the real deal. Broken legs can be risky, but if he's back to normal next year, he brings some toughness to what's been considered a very soft Oline for the Bills.

29) Giants: WR Hakeem Hicks. Nicks plays bigger than his 6' 215 pound frame. He wears an XXXL sized glove. The football looks like a softball in his hands *L* Taken at the back-end of the 1st round, he was rated higher than Darrius Heyward-Bey by many (sorry, Al ). He's dropped some passes and run some bad routes, but overall, Hicks has been very productive: 46 catches for a whopping 795 yards (huge 17+YPC average) and 6 TD's. He's done this having only started 5 games out of 13 played. He looks like a perfect match for Steve Smith, and if Manningham continues to develop, Eli Manning is going to have a great career throwing to these cats. Hicks looks like a winner.

30) Titans: WR Kenny Britt. A huge but raw receiver, the 6'3 220 pound Britt lit up the NCAA with Rutgers, and that production has carried over to his rookie year. In 6 starts, he's put up 41 catches for 687 yards (16.8 YPC). Those are good numbers for a rookie receiver, and those numbers were leading the Titans. Some have started comparing him to Plaxico Burress, sans the attitude.

31) Cardinals: RB Beannie Wells. An OSU favorite, many people wanted him here. With a reputation of being soft, he fell all the way to the bottom of the 1st round. Wells hasn't started a game, but he's been a productive player as a secondary back. 170 carries for 774 yards are good numbers (4.6 YPC) and 7 TD's. He has taken some shots and been dinged, but he hasn't missed any time. So far so good for Wells, and so far so good for the gamble by the Cards.

32) Steelers: DT Evander Hood. A long-term selection, Hood has been a bit player on a team that tried to get back to the Super Bowl. With 8 tackles and 1 sack, he isn't part of the here-and-now, but he has great size and strength but doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well. In other words, he looks like an excellent DE for the 3-4 defense. The Steelers have a long history of good picks, and though he isn't starting this year, he should next year and they like what they see.

Anything stand out? I'm not the least but surprised to see Maybin tank. It looks like a great year for receivers. These OT's sure make me glad Savage didn't go with his heart and took Thomas. These tackles are OK, but they aren't in the same class as Joe. It was interesting to see Wood develop along with Mack. His leg-injury was kinda gruesome. Something else that I find interesting is that so many of the later picks are doing so much more than the earlier picks. Of course we've always known having a good team helps develop rookies. I think Mangini did a good job of dropping down and taking a good player in Mack. Sure, he could have taken Mathews, but as long as Mack pans out, and it looks like he will, it was an excellent selection.

I may examine the 2nd round later. I enjoy this crap too much


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that was fun. do a 2nd rounder too

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Great read and analysis. I agree with most everything.

I would add that Orakpo made the Pro-Bowl which is very impressive.

He's the pick that made me look smart. The pick that made me look dumb would be Brian Cushing. I didn't think he'd do well at all. How do the Texans keep getting great players and not make the playoffs? They have guys that can really really play at tons of positions. They should be a 12-4 type team. Crazy.


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Thanks, Hel, but there's really no analysis there on my part. I just wanted to see where a few of those players gone in terms of their development, so I figured I might not be the only junkie who was curious, hehe.

You do look smart on Orakpo. I was on the fence. Who would have thought that both Cushing and Mathews would be this good?

I totally agree about the Texans. They have three or four pro-bowl caliber defensive players. They have Schaub who isn't quite elite yet but had a breakout year. In fact, he's having the best year that nobody knows about. Check out these numbers:

Matt Schaub: 68.4% comp rate, 4467 yards 27 TD's and 14 INT's for a freakin' 99.1 rating.

They have Andre Johnson. They have Owen Daniels............and yet they don't have a winning team. It's hard to figure.

Dong, maybe tomorrow, or maybe someone else would be interested. The 2nd round can get dry because it's filled with projected players.

Gotta give one 2nd rounder props though: This receiver named Massaquoi 33 catches aren't much, but has 610 yards for a big 18+ YPC. We won't talk about my boy Robiskie. He's gonna be a good player for us. Trust me *L*


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Thanks


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Wow. That took a lot of work. Thank you. Very good, indeed!


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Nice Job, enjoyable read.

One thing it does show is that nobody from us the NFL has a darn clue what a player is gonna do in the pro's, it's a crap shot,

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Thanks for the read. Very entertaining.

Just goes to show you that a lot of rookies, even first rounders, just don't do much their rookie year. Yet that won't stop the fanbase(s) for blasting the coaches/gms if their team's rookies aren't doing so hot.

Oh.. and I weep that we don't have Clay Mathews Jr.

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Quote:

Anything stand out?



What stands out to me really is that when you think about the situation each guy was drafted into... the success seems to parallel it. Your opinion seems to be (and I agree with almost all of it) that the players at the back end of the first round have been more successful than those at the front end of the first round... I still contend it's not because they are better players but because of the team they went to.

The Heyward-Bey pick at that spot is laughable, I'll give you that... but would you rather be the first WR taken and have Russell/Frye/Gradkowski throwing to you or would you rather be taken later and have McNabb throwing to you with Celek at TE and Jackson on the other side? One is set up for success, the other for failure....


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Thanks for this Toad,

there are a lot of disappointments in the top 15....that's why the trade down was a good move even though getting relatively "low value" in return. Mack was the safe pick there...but if you look at the guys around him, EM let some similar or better talent on the board on harder to draft positions (Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Oher, Matthews, Wells)

That's why I wasn't happy with Mack...value...at 34 he would have been a very good pick and at 50 an excellent one....it's all about value.

Wood I preferred over Mack on draft day, I saw him being more ready and overall more balanced....the kicker in this draft in my opinion was the drop off from the Top WR guys to Robo and Massa etc...that's why I would have picked one of the playmakers 1st and THEN a C (maybe even an uptrade...we had more than enough ammo)....EM opted for quantity instead..so we ended up with Veikune, a 3rd to 4th round prospect....with all those picks they didn't play the board well...Savage may have been to "move happy"...but EM was the exact opposite, which imho for this particular draft was worse

Here's a 2nd round try:

The 2nd round looks real ugly for us...Mass got way more playing time and LOOKS than most of the 1st round WRs, yet has less production than those and is even outperformed by later round guys like Wallace, Knox and Collie...Massa may be an ok pick compared to our other 2 2nd rounders...but compared to players picked around him, he doesn't stand out, in fact I think it was a bad one....OL like Unger, Levitre, Loadholt have started all games for their teams (so much for the C-drop off...I'd rather have Nicks/Maclin/Harvin and Unger than Mack and Massa...the WR drop off was way more significant)

Robo picks was ugly...look at the players picked after him:

Phonso Smith...one of my fav CBs in this draft, has disappointed but he's just their NB with Bailey and hefty FA-contract Goodman, who are both 30+...so he's being groomed to take over for one of them

Maualuga.....as advertised, a 2 down MLB, who immensly helped CIN on D to set up their other 2 former 1st rounders (both CBs)...they have many more 3rd and longs to look at now and now their CB play becomes more important...much improved D and he was a main puzzle and gift for them

Britton....started all games at RT for JAX, solid pick...was one of the best RT in the class with down the road LT possibility....another much better looking pick than Robo

Brace...only being rotated, DL take time, was not a huge fan of his....but he's in NE and NT take some time (maybe more than any other position) to have an impact

Butler...2 spot starts, decent numbers...can't say much about him, haven't seen enough but he was one of the better cover-CB prospects in this class...2 INT, 7 PD look solid here

J.Byrd...ProBowl rookie nough said, 9 INTs...great center fielder...would have been a perfect fit for the passive EM defense...and I mean PERFECT (Bills run similar D philosophy)...now FS is our biggest need

Everette Brown...backup behind Peppers and Brayton....but gets enough PT along with fellow rookie C.Johnson, made some impact plays already

Pat White....never understod the pick, then again Parcells has one of those wtf picks EVERY draft....he more than made up with the next one though selecting Sean Smith...White was a gamble

Sintim...liked him but knew he was too slow for the NFL watching postseason tape...good CFB player, not so good for NFL....drafted by a 4-3 team was a real head scratcher...if he had a shot at a career it would have been at SOLB in the 3-4, didn't do much this year

Barwin...my "man"...he IS a project, but one I was ready to roll the dice on...he only had his senior year starting as defender (was a TE before), so he's still around 20 games into being a defender...no chance to start behind Mario Williams and FA contract A.Smith...but he's already a great situational pass rusher and good ST with so much more upside, 3.5 sacks, 4 PD....he managed to sack Peyton Manning !! ...in an OLB starved class, he already looks like one of the better pass rushers...and he's playing in a 4-3 (another head scratcher), though being used as Kiwanuka like hybrid (from what I saw)

M.Mitchell...Al Davis...Raiders....next

McBath....liked him, mocked him in round 3, 1st backup S for the Donkeys...behind vets Dawkins and R.Hill...thought he might be able to start over Hill, who only has some brains left and zero ability....guess McBath is the opposite now and will start next season or he's a pure FS..than he has to wait till Dawkins decides to not play anymore...0 starts, 26Ts, 2 INTs, 3 PD...so at least he's obviously playing in nickel and dime

Unger....loved him, versatile OL, can play anywhere but LT, 15 starts

then came Massa....

Levitre...15 starts for Bills at G, very solid pick, one of the best Gs in the class

then we picked Veikune....

McCoy...solid RB, good pass catcher out of backfield...we just missed on him

Loadholt...14 game starter at RT for one of the best teams in the league

Moore....preseason IR

running out of time, sorry...there were some other nice players like S.Smith, Vollmer, Kruger and Martin...

How does Robiskie, Massa and Veikune look now?


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21) Browns: C Alex Mack. Mangini took a ton of heat for trading down so many times while passing on higher profiled players at other positions of need. Mack started out the season as the undeserved starter, but such was a move built for the future, not the present. He played like a rookie to start the year, looking lost in his line-calls and not even knowing how to shotgun-snap. However, over the last half of the season, he's been vastly improved. Wait...........What the Hell am I doing? You all know this one already. *L*





It should also be noted that the Mack pick yielded an additional 13 starts at DE with 38 combined tackles, 2 pass def, and 1.5 sacks ; 15 starts at Safety, 85 combined tackles, 1 sack, and 1 pass defended.

I'd add in Veikune's numbers - if he had any At least if the Veikune pick turns out to be a miss, it's an extra pick that EM pulled out of the air. It was his to waste...

All things considered, that's a hell of a lot of production out of a first round pick

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The DE is 30+ and very average and the S sucks though...they are not part of the solution, they are just eitehr stop gaps (Coleman) or busts (Elam)...and hence enlarge our problem to field a good team

again, it's just quantity over quality


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Quote:

Mass got way more playing time and LOOKS than most of the 1st round WRs, yet has less production than those and is even outperformed by later round guys like Wallace, Knox and Collie...Massa may be an ok pick compared to our other 2 2nd rounders...but compared to players picked around him, he doesn't stand out, in fact I think it was a bad one....




Wondering why you didn't even mention the quality of QB play our receivers relied on this year as compared to other players? As already mentioned in this thread, it's obvious that rookies going to good teams generally had better performances. Production of wide receivers is directly proportional to production from quarterbacks. I happen to think our QB play was a contributing factor in our WRs lack of production.

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Thanks for the good summary, Toad. But, before you pat yourself on the back too hard, you were hardly the only person to suggest Curry might not be the impact player (especially as a 3-4 LB) he was touted to be, nor that Crabtree was the best player in the draft.

Also, there were lots of people saying Matthews would be very good. His production is not surprising to me. I was saying we should take him if we traded down with Washington, or even at 5 if Crabtree was gone. I was furious when we passed on him at 17, 19, 21 and never thought he'd last that long. I know I'm not the only one there, either (well, maybe in the "take him at 5" camp.)

I'm still not sold on Orakpo. Yes, he has 11 sacks, but so did another iffy DE/OLB conversion picked in the early 10s. The 2 or 3 games I've watched washington play Orakpo's been borderline worthless. Despite his strength, he gets pushed around in the run game. He "plays" LB, but he still isn't a LB. If he becomes one, I'll be surprised. He's still a pass-rush specialist and isn't a liability only on 3rd and passing.

Definitely can appreciate what Mack is becoming, but passing on Matthews for him is something that's going to bother me for quite a while.

One guy I was wrong on was Maclin. Didn't think he'd be a great player... looks like he might be. I had him behind Crabtree, Nicks, and Robiskie.

Yeah, Maybin was a clear bust. It was painful to see all the 'nicks putting him to the Bills, then them actually taking him. Almost like "this is the team most-likely to screw up."

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Thanks Toad! Great read! The Mack pick is looking better each day.

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Quote:

Mass got way more playing time and LOOKS than most of the 1st round WRs, yet has less production than those and is even outperformed by later round guys like Wallace, Knox and Collie...Massa may be an ok pick compared to our other 2 2nd rounders...but compared to players picked around him, he doesn't stand out, in fact I think it was a bad one....



Sorry.. if Mass had Manning, Ben, or even Cutler throwing him the ball, he wouldn't look like a bad one... if Mass had somebody, ANYBODY, on the other side of the field like.. oh, I don't know... Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Devin Hester, I'm sure his production might be a just a bit better than the guys playing opposite him drawing all of the coverage... who are those guys again?... Those other QBs sometimes throw for more than 120 yards per game.. I know, hard to believe, but sometimes in the NFL it happens.


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Haven't you been one of the most vocal that many of Quinn's struggles can be attributed to the receivers and not getting any separation? ... but now you are defending Mass's production because of the QB?

Can't have it both ways.

Back to the spirit of the thread ... Toad, I really liked the recap except you just can't stop patting yourself on the back ... recap without back-patting ... gets a solid A ... enjoyable read ... with back-patting it just became annoying ...

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Pretty good stuff their Toad and overall accurate...my only fear.

(and I look like a little smarter ).

Is that was your motive...boy if so you went to great lengths...lol

OT Jason Smith I thought was fools gold and not the real deal.
Ty Jackson everyone was saying we should have taken or were going to take (everyone meaning some top Draftniks...not many on this board were) So glad we didn't - also puts fear into me about the prospects of Suh in our D ??? probably a moot point anyway as our winning streak will take care of that.

Curry...I think is your first flaw and seems to reek a little of bias and too much of you trying to look smart??? Actually he's been everything anyone can ask from him for his position. And it is not an easy position to pick up when your team really is not that good and as you noted the guy making the reads went down.

But he seems just what he was propped up to be...the safest pick.

Stafford btw isn't a failure - as far as first year QBs put in an awful position he hasn't done bad...question is will he become another Couch n Carr variety of DAMAGED Goods...its looking that way if they don't get better fast.

Andre Smith...the guy I wanted us to take for quite a while and man our RT position (last couple of weeks I switched to Orakpo and I'll tell you why later) I think was a total messed up pick more so not for the RED FLAGS (but that does make you smarter ) but instead because the Bengals are so STUPID CHEAP and wanted to pay him less then his slotted position...rather than some other holdouts who wanted More for their slotted position (ie Crabtree which btw don't make you smart at all ) All it shows is he is a good Pick up football game player...we'll see if he can become a real NFL player as he develops or not...sick talent though no doubt about that.

Which brings us to Orakpo...at first when I was pimping Andre Smith I was a little afraid of Orakpo being one of those workout warriors and wouldn't be the right guy for us. But I did have a little Inside Info...somebody I was in touch with (they will be nameless) was vying for an Intern position and was actually in our War Room at the early stages (after the Combine) but was let go before the draft. He told me that an overwhelming number of scouts had Orakpo as the GUY to target at #5.

In lieu of that I sort of conceded to myself that is who our pick was going to be and since the odds he was going to be a Brown was high...I started looking at him as a Brown and all the Positives he would/could bring I must give props to the Scouts...cause they were spot on...and Orakpo would be a BEAST in our 3-4 D SOLB. But if we didn't make the trade fellow dawgs that is who we were picking

Eugene Monroe...who I liked way better then J Smith and again for our RT position seems to be the real deal.

Worst pick...obviously has to be the Mad Man Al Davis' pick of Heyward Bey geesh I feel sorry for Raider fans and being a Browns fan that says a lot.

Raji...a beast that will do well

Maybin...only thing is the insinuation of Steroids being the Culprit...sorry Toad its not that...pretty much all were shaking their head no when he declared cause all knew he just was not ready. If he's been a dud so far its because of that...I see you praise later on Brian Cushing who had way more Steroid implications than Maybin so your premise is flawed...oh btw...Merriman was big throughout his last year at Maryland I don't see your case there. The 10-15 lbs happens all the time at these camps. And he had the frame.

But Cushing did well as did Merriman - not because of Roids cause they both happen to be GOOD FOOTBALL PLAYERS.

Oher...overrated due to the book n film...but he's the real deal at RT and probably would be a decent LT for the Ravens...no where in the class of a JoeT

Mack...has progressed really well and is pretty much showing Everyone he was a more than sound pick for us... "What the Hell am I doing? You all know this one already." Actually there are some who don't know cause it makes them look foolish we know who they are

overall...really I think only RBs should be scrutinized as definite good or bad as its one of the few positions that you can tell.

There are several that we can nod yes with certainty with their progress that we have seen...but still its how they progress throughout their career that will now determine whether they are just OK players...Good to great or HOFer caliber.

There are several that we do nod as no...but honestly none should be a Definite NO cause they can turn that around in the next two seasons. Unless physically they become damaged goods...Stafford and Woods come to mind there.

Thanks for the thread for the most part...there are a lot of SMART dawgs on the board...not just you.

JMHO


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To both you and Ytse...

It's not only stats I'm talking about...Collie has hands and route running, Wallace and Knox have exceptional speed and Wallace has made some great catches (see last second TD vs GB on 4th down)...Massa has very inconsitent hands (body catchching way too many times), is rather slow and isn't a polished route runner....he has to improve his hands and route running to become average in this league....he also has LESS upside than those guys I mentioned

the selections of Robo AND Mass are just so dumb seen as package...2 absolutely identical WR with low upside and both with huge ?marks....so silly on so many levels to draft them both in round 2...and if you take a look at the other guys picked around them you see that Robo-Massa-Veikune is pretty bad...from a talent AND position standpoint

I mean WR and OLB are still 2 big needs of this team...how come?

What makes it worse...if you look at the good players in that 2nd round....almost all are at positions that are major needs now...lots of good RT, G, CB, FS...great ILB thumper, good looking OLB prospect...such a waste

we could and should have done much, much better with 4 1st day picks


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Quote:

Massa has very inconsitent hands (body catchching way too many times), is rather slow and isn't a polished route runner....he has to improve his hands and route running to become average in this league....he also has LESS upside than those guys I mentioned




Mass has displayed much better hands as the season has gone on. What concerns me is to the naked eye he seems SSLLLOOWWW ... and even though he has been solid, nothing jumps out at you that says 'this guy is going to be great' ... which is an agreement with your lack of upside comment. There just doesn't seem to be much to build on there. When he made that great catch last game on the slant, he looked like a turtle running after the catch.

Mass and Robo were character picks. Guys with decent talent that wouldn't rock the boat and get on board with the program. That's ok, but you eventually need the talent.

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If you think Mack had a better rookie season than Oher, Maclin, Nicks, Harvin, Loadholt, Maualuga, Unger, Britton, Davis, S.Smith or even Wood (at least Toad knows) your delusional EO (what else is new)

now even if all those guys had similar "impact" to a team...ask all GMs in the league to make a list....I can tell you the C will be at the bottom of that list on most lists and not even a handfull will have him in the top 3

Btw, you still don't get the fact that I like Mack the player but not the value WHEN he was picked...and I still rather had Fraley play stop gap C with Oher at RT than having StClair as stoip gap RT and Mack at C...or what about Nicks as #1 WR with Loadholt or Britton at RT....it was all very possible and clearly better what we ended up with

I'm astonished about the fact that you can still stick with your apologists stance in the face of continously being proven wrong on almost everything Browns related...you're a true homer EO, constantly overvaluing our own players...I love you, I really do (no sarcasm whatsoever) If one day our Browns win the SB, I'll fly over the pond just to hug you

Happy new year


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"your delusional EO (what else is new)"

And yet it is you now stating how much you like Mack

but I'm delusional... "Btw, you still don't get the fact that I like Mack the player but not the value WHEN he was picked.

yeah thats why a couple of weeks ago you were calling him an outright bust - so now your only straw left is the slot You're talking about hitting a Home Run on a kid past the top 10 and your quest now of proving your superiority is to minimalize the pick due to slotting. When there were strong indications that the Vikings were taking him. When we know the Bills took Woods later on and probably would have taken Mack instead if available....And we all know that the Steelers would most definitely have taken one of the two.

So no matter how you look at it. Neither Woods nor Mack was going to be available after the first round! We got the Stud! We prevented our biggest rival from getting a much needed Stud. But you are nit picking the pick now for a measly slot or two...instead of actually praising the moves of actually gaining Francies and Davis by making little moves back till we thought that was chancing it all we could...and took the guy we wanted! Who would have been a good pick at 17 when all is said and done!

yeah...I'm delusional - geesh and now you will have all on this board to believe you were alright with the PICK all along just not the slot... Unbelievable

JMHViewing the worst Crow eating by a poster...now you claim you knew he was good


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Quote:

Massa has very inconsitent hands (body catchching way too many times), is rather slow and isn't a polished route runner....he has to improve his hands and route running to become average in this league....he also has LESS upside than those guys I mentioned





I actually have no argument with any of that. You just mention 'production' specifically and even with all those things being true, I still think his overall production would have been better playing with a QB that could throw accurate passes. In that regard, comparing his production against other receivers didn't seem entirely accurate.

Please don't mistake that for defending MoMass as a good pick. I absolutely loathe receivers that don't catch with their hands. Atleast he doesn't appear to be as clumsy with the ball as Quincy Morgan or BE. I expect (or should I say 'hope') his route running and reliability catching the ball will improve over the next couple years as the game slows down for him some.

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Only a few things, Toad. One, don't rip on Tyson Jackson. Chiefs fans love him. They think he's the next Ty Warren. I also wanted to point out that Eric Wood was playing guard until he got hurt. Never even practiced at center.

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Ask a Chief fan about Glenn Dorsey though...


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Gotta start by saying you can't judge players based on their rookie year.

Course U had to say that..the lilly pad wouldn't let you bypass what I said yesterday..and to clarify,I never said you can't base players on their rookie year..U know full well what I meant..but anyway nice research..
There are varing opinions on who we should have selected..and while I said I wasn't opposed to Mack(and I never said I don't like him) I know what I would have done differently,and that was to take one of the two WR's early .
When U look at Mackin/Britt's production it's clear they would have helped the receiver corps greatly ,especially after Edwards was traded..there was my concern from the start even knowing the line needed more power up the middle..hence why I kept propping Hadnot to compete there.

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They love him.

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Quote:

JMHViewing the worst Crow eating by a poster...now you claim you knew he was good




I always said so EO (from a potential standpoint...I called him bad when he played bad becaue, you know, he has played rather bad till the bye), sorry...go back and find a post of mine where I said he'd bust long term...I always said, even right after the draft, that he has low bust factor and at worst he'd become a good RG....after those 1st very bad starts I became concerned if he could handle C and wanted him to move to G....that's where I might have missed

and EO, it's not a couple of picks....from 17 to 34 there a lots of good players selected, most being as good or better than Mack...at more important positions

and I like how you guys constantly evade this question: who would you rather have:

Option 1: Mack at C and StClair at RT with Robo/Mass at WR

or

Option 2: Fraley/Hadnot at C and Oher at RT with Robo/Mass at WR

or Option 3: Fraley/Hadnot at C and Britton/Loadholt at RT and Nicks/Harvin/Maclin at WR

I know I like Option 3 the most and 1 the least....that doesn't make Mack a bad player, but it makes him a bad played hand looking at the entire game

but I honestly don't expect you to get it by now...


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two WRs were picked b/c:
1. Stallworth was going to be in jail or suspended
2. BE was going to either be traded or walk after this season

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I was driving thru Northern Kentucky and picked up a Bengals Monday Football Show like the Browns have this week
Dave Lapham said Andre Smith has improved every game and picked up the highest grade of any lineman from the Chiefs game.
Apparently pre draft the the Bengals o-line coach was blown away by Smith's strength and balance......he graded out higher than Oher,who has struggled and Monroe.
Anthony Munoz said Andre Smith is the real deal.
What a luxury for the Bengals to have a OT like Smith not starting yet having one of the best running teams in the NFL

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"but I honestly don't expect you to get it by now."

That is true - I got no clue So just what am I not getting how you would have had us trade the pick to the JETS and then at #17 pick Conner Barwin



Cause thats what you did your ego trip posting of some GM fantasy bs that you were involved to try to show all how smart you are.

Now after the fact you are coming up with all these scenarios...you're right, I don't get it how smart you portray yourself as. Cut the crap...Mangini gets Mack, Francies, Davis, Coleman, Elam and Ratliff - The mighty brilliant Django? Conner Barwin

And you got the balls to criticize the pick now and portray yourself as correct

hmmm...this is where I say - Game, Set and Match - I'm done with you


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Quote:

than Oher,who has struggled




From everything I have read, it has said that Oher has been amazing. He is even being touted at rookie of the year by Scout Inc. because he has played so well. Him switching over to LT from RT has been seamless from what I understand.


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First thing that stands out to me is that losing in the NFL and getting the early draft picks don't benefit teams like many sheep seem to think. You get a weak draft class with few top prospects and you're screwed by being locked in with a shaky player with question marks and a fat, massive contract that you will be stuck with most likely long term and held down as far as the cap is concerned, only hurting a team's ability to improve. It makes me appreciate this winning streak more, that's for damn sure.

Most of your assessments are spot on. I think all three QB's taken in the 1st round will be successful with more time to grow and the right supporting cast around them. Stafford just needs a better offensive line and to cut out the stupid mistakes, which is doable with time. I like QB's with big arms and accuracy to make all the throws necessary. Stafford fits that mold. Sanchize worries me most at this point. The conditions he is in to succeed are just too prime to put up those numbers. I guess the inexperience is the largest factor in that, but still... Freeman I think has equally high of potential as Stafford. He also has that high bust potential but watching games down here in the Tampa area, I have to say I think he is physically the most impressive QB I've seen in my young lifetime. He can make all the NFL throws and then some. His arm is just incredible. He can buy time with his legs and pick up the occasional first down on the ground and is HUGE. He admits himself he has been confused by trying to read NFL defenses and this is an area he can only improve on with time. Time will tell but I feel best about Freeman believe it or not (maybe because the Bucs are my NFC/2nd team now)

I like the money Mangini saved in trading down and acquiring more picks. Hard to argue with Mack from that standpoint as I see yet another piece of our offensive line to go toe to toe with the type of players we're going to see in the AFCN. I'm in the RT for 1st round camp right now. Can you imagine having Thomas at LT, Mack at C, and a guy like Okung/Williams/Davis at RT? Heck if we add a guy like Iupati from Idaho later I'd venture to go as far and say we'd even have the best offensive line in the NFL- not immediately- but for years to come.

Good read, Toad. If I had the time, I'd be working on the 2nd round as we speak.


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1. I had not Oher on the board available in my mock, he'd be my pick over Mack...you know that, since I've told you so everytime but it's not fitting your childish problem you seem to have with my views or me ...you do know you have a big problem around here if Barwin studs out (and from the pass rushing I've seen so far from him, be ready)...you'll hear about it night and day ....after Orakpo, he already looks like the 2nd best pass rusher of this class...he's already off to a decent start...

2. I had extra picks too for my trade downs...you don't wanna know who I got?
I'll tell you again: S McBath and WR Thomas (poor man's Harvin in JAX, 41catches, 388yds, 1TD, 7.2yds run on 12 tries....good PR and KR too)

3. I also got Nicks and Wells along with Barwin

I'd take those 3 over Mack, Robo, Massa and Veikune every time...no brainer


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I did you expect to get 3 first rounders?


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Deep, correction noted on Wood at guard. I didn't see the the Bills game and simply collected articles and legit opinions on him.

Rish and a bunch of others........You mean after all these years you STILL haven't figured out the reason for the self-promotion and back-patting?

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just watch football and screw with you buncha hacks




Ask Eotab what it's really all about. We've chirped at each other for years, but he understands it's as much entertainment as anything. (Which is why the Merriman and steroid barbs )

Attack, you're a little sensitive there bud. I didn't have you in mind at all when I said you can't judge a rookie after one year (of course then they wouldn't be rookies, would they? ). The one guy in the entire draft who looks like he stands the greatest chance to bust is Heyward-Bey, and I'm not even prepared to say that yet...........because he's a rookie and extenuating circumstances.

Django..........Your fundamental argument about value is sound, but your application of it in regards to Mack has holes in it, because you want absolute value, and that's virtually impossible to achieve. We took Mack at 21. We don't know if we had any other trading partners to move further down. We don't know if someone had him rated higher then took someone else after he was gone. The difference in contract numbers between he and Wood are $2.9 million over five years. That's $580k per year. Peanuts. We don't know if the Bills would have taken him instead and moved him to guard, which was very plausible.

So what it really comes down to is your belief that we took him too early and lost something in terms of absolute value. That value was $580k per year. Quibbling over peanuts.

You can make a more sound argument about taking guys like Cushing or Mathews, but it's suddenly funny that despite years of talk that we suck because we have never built the team from the INSIDE-OUT, people lament the fact that we by-passed the sexy pick and drafted a Center to rebuild a fading line.

Fascinating, that.

Fraley was done as a starting center, ESPECIALLY in this division. Great guy, great backup, not a starter. Just because he can play ahead of Womack doesn't make him good. St. Claire could play ahead of me, but that doesn't make him good.

That's why I said as long as Mack has a good career, it was an excellent selection. In a league where the hit percentage on 1st rounders is so dicey, and rooting for a team that for years failed to build the team the right way, I find it extremely difficult to rail against the selection of Mack with an honest intent. When we switch to the 4-3, this pick will look even better.

While he was fired, go ask the Jets how happy they are they built the team from the INSIDE-OUT. They are on a playoff push with a rookie QB because of the #1 defense and the #1 rushing offense. Why? BECAUSE THEY BUILT FROM THE INSIDE-OUT.

One last thing. Despite it all, many are STILL judging 1st year players, and 2nd rounders at that. Wait a year or two before grading them. They weren't 1st rounders for a reason, and each coach has his own reasons for sitting them, even if the reasons are legit or idiotic.


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Good job Toad. I'm looking forward to round 2. Especially your take on Maualuga. I'm still sick that he isn't a Brown and could not care less that he is a 2 down back. 3rd and 8 is better than 3rd and 1.

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I can tell you about Rey right now.............

It's far easier to come right in and play at LB than it is receiver, so those comparisons will have to wait another year before that conversation can fairly take place. Veik looks like a busted pick, but we'll see what happens next year.

Getting back to Rey, he's the beneficiary of playing behind a great 43 defensive front line. He doesn't get nearly the amount of blockers that most do in the league, so it's easier for him to make plays. Just as RB's and QB's benefit greatly from the Oline, LB's benefit greatly from the DT's. If we switch to the 43, Jackson is going to be in the pro-bowl because his light-in-the-ass self won't have to fight nearly the amount of blockers. He was a good pick for them. He wouldn't have been a good pick for us. He'd look just like Barton. With a possible switch to the 43, he'd have become a backup to Jackson.


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" When we switch to the 4-3 this pick will look even better"


is that you Mike?

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Who will be a better lineman in your opinion Mack vs Oher?


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