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This year has been all about parity... any team really can beat every team this year.
Jacksonville is tough. They, like every team this year have a weakness though that can be exploited. I still think this team goes 8-8...
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1st String
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Quote:
We are 3-6, that's reality and we aren't much beter than that:
We are 26th on Offense (29th passing, 12th rushing)
We are 24th on Defense (24th pass, 19th rush)
By that criteria, clearly San Diego must be the best team in the NFL.
What's their record again?
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D one of the reason I have always thought stats were for losers is because it doesn’t speak to the level of talent you are facing. In this instance I give no credibility to your stats.
You play better teams your stats suffer. You play weaker teams your stats improve. At the end of the season assuming you play a balanced schedule then you can try to analyze stats but it’s not black and white, there is plenty of gray.
I tend to go by the eye test. My eye test says this team plays beyond its talent level consistently and while far from a top team they are playing at a level that puts them on the fringes of a PO team. That probably would be even better if the teams we have been playing so far this season coupled with getting off to a slow start weren’t so damned good. The schedule Gods didn’t help us much lets just put it that way.
JMHO
BTTB
BTTB
AKA Upbeat Dawg
Can't believe I am in a group that is comprised of the best NOT just fans but people on the planet.
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Excuses imho...and our schedule has not been as tough as you make it out to be:
TB: 22nd O, 22nd D
KC: 10th O, 19th D
BAL: 13th O, 10th D
CIN: 15th O, 15th D
ATL: 8th O, 17th D
PIT: 24th O, 9th D
NO: 7th O, 3rd D
NE: 18th O, 29th D
NYJ: 11th O, 5th D
Averaging out at 14.2th O and 14.3th D we faced...that's slightly above AVG sched
Fringe PO team? Maybe, but if WE are a fringe PO team so are 80% of teams in this league at least...you remember when we were a fringe PO team with an easy schedule? in 07? Then everyone downplayed it saying we got an easy schedule...
Also, I disagree that we play "beyond" our talent level, that's BS imho....we have 4-5 PBowl caliber trenchmen (Rogers, Rubin, Thomas, Steiny, Mack)...I'm not even sure there is another NFL team with that many, we have a mad man RB in Hillis...so, I don't consider 26th O and 24th D having us playing "beyond" what we have....if anything, I actually think we should be better...both in play by play performance AND W-L record
#gmstrong
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You know I am going to harp on using total yardage instead of YPC and YPA, so here I am doing just that (as total yardage doesn't adjust for pace, STs, TOs, etc).
Our ranks:
Offense:
13th (4.2 YPC)
23rd (6.8 YPA)
We need more big plays in the passing game. No doubt about that. Our WRs haven't played well and we can't expect our TEs to break them.
Defense:
8th (3.9 YPC)
23rd (7.3 YPA)
Top10 Rush defense has me excited and the fact we are under 4YPC this late in the season means it is very legit. Especially since we have played the #3 (KC), #5 (Jets), #8 (TB), #16 (NE) and #17 (Pitt and ATL) rushing teams and our YPC is still that good.
#gmstrong
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 One of the reasons that stats are for losers is because anyone can take a set of stats and say they mean what they want them to mean... That very thing is what renders them almost useless.....
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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i am a believer because i see it on the field on Sunday's. i dont need stats, i don't need pro bowls, heck, i don't even need over time victories. this team is better than any team we have fielded since we have been back in the league. i can say that with 100% confidence. i am a believer. mark me down for that category.
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The teams we have faced ar a combined 52-29. 6 are in 1st (or tied for 1st) in their division. Tampa Bay and New Orleans are 1 game out of 1st in their division @ 6-3. Our "cupcake" has been Cincinnati, and we beat them. I do have to congratulate you though ..... you are the 1st person I have seen anywhere weho said that our schedule wasn't all that tough so far ......  
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Quote:
One of the reasons that stats are for losers is because anyone can take a set of stats and say they mean what they want them to mean...
That very thing is what renders them almost useless.....
I sort of disagree 
I agree you can manipulate and cherry-pick stats to pretty much get any point you want across.
But, that is why it is important to be consistent with how you use and represent stats and why it is important to be intelligent about which ones you use in the first place.
That is why I harp so much on YPC and YPA. It tells you how good the defense/offense is doing per play rather than total yardage which can easily be manipulated.
When you combine YPC/YPA and Pts/Game that is the best "easy to find" indicator that is out there right now. I wish this was more like MLB or the NBA where people had developed better stats that told you all this in one stat (like Defensive Efficiency Rating in basketball). Alas, we don't have that right now and I'm too busy to take the necessary time to figure that out and keep it up each week.
#gmstrong
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That is why I harp so much on YPC and YPA. It tells you how good the defense/offense is doing per play rather than total yardage which can easily be manipulated.
That's my point, you can use those stats to determine the effectiveness of the D or O, but then there are another set of stats somewhere else that disprove..
That's why, you look at a player or team and then use stats to verify what you think you saw.. not the other way around.
JMO however
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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Quote:
The teams we have faced ar a combined 52-29.
6 are in 1st (or tied for 1st) in their division.
Tampa Bay and New Orleans are 1 game out of 1st in their division @ 6-3.
Our "cupcake" has been Cincinnati, and we beat them.
I do have to congratulate you though ..... you are the 1st person I have seen anywhere weho said that our schedule wasn't all that tough so far ......
 Y-town, what are those same stats for Jax, please ?
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Quote:
Quote:
The teams we have faced ar a combined 52-29.
6 are in 1st (or tied for 1st) in their division.
Tampa Bay and New Orleans are 1 game out of 1st in their division @ 6-3.
Our "cupcake" has been Cincinnati, and we beat them.
I do have to congratulate you though ..... you are the 1st person I have seen anywhere weho said that our schedule wasn't all that tough so far ......
Y-town, what are those same stats for Jax, please ?
You're gonna have to look those up for yourself. I'm not gonna break down the whole league. lol
Given that they have played Denver, Buffalo, and Dallas, I would have to expect that their opponents' records are lower.
Also, unless I missed someone, they have played 2 teams who are at 6-3, and everyone else is below that.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Legend
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Quote:
Excuses imho...and our schedule has not been as tough as you make it out to be:
TB: 22nd O, 22nd D
KC: 10th O, 19th D
BAL: 13th O, 10th D
CIN: 15th O, 15th D
ATL: 8th O, 17th D
PIT: 24th O, 9th D
NO: 7th O, 3rd D
NE: 18th O, 29th D
NYJ: 11th O, 5th D
Averaging out at 14.2th O and 14.3th D we faced...that's slightly above AVG sched
Who gives a crap what their O and D rankings are?
We have played...
All 3 teams that are currently 7-2
4 of the 8 teams that are 6-3
1 team that is 5-4
and the Bungles who are 2-7
I absolutely defy you to show me a team that has played that kind of a schedule..
yebat' Putin
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Legend
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Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
The teams we have faced ar a combined 52-29.
6 are in 1st (or tied for 1st) in their division.
Tampa Bay and New Orleans are 1 game out of 1st in their division @ 6-3.
Our "cupcake" has been Cincinnati, and we beat them.
I do have to congratulate you though ..... you are the 1st person I have seen anywhere weho said that our schedule wasn't all that tough so far ......
Y-town, what are those same stats for Jax, please ?
You're gonna have to look those up for yourself. I'm not gonna break down the whole league. lol
Given that they have played Denver, Buffalo, and Dallas, I would have to expect that their opponents' records are lower.
Also, unless I missed someone, they have played 2 teams who are at 6-3, and everyone else is below that.
36-45
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I'm bored enough at work right now and I got 2 hours to kill. So I will calculate EVERY teams strength of schedule thus far to show how ridiculous what you're saying is...
Cleveland opponents are a combined 52-29. . 642 winning %
Rest of the league, I'll go by division....
AFC North -
Pittsburgh - 47-34 - .580 %
Baltimore - 41-40 - .506 %
Cincinnati - 46-35 - .568 %
AFC South -
Indianaplois - 39-42 - .481 %
Jacksonville - 36-45 - .444 %
Houston - 43-38 - .531 %
Tennessee - 41-40 - .506 %
AFC West -
Denver - 48-33 - .593 %
Kansas City - 34-47 - .420 %
San Diego - 43-38 - .531 %
Oakland - 36-45 - .444 %
AFC East -
New England - 37-44 - .457 %
New York Jets - 36-47 - .444 %
Buffalo - 49-32 - .605 %
Miami - 43-38 - .531 %
NFC North -
Minnesota - 44-37 - .543 %
Detroit - 43-38 - .531 %
Green Bay - 36-47 - .444 %
Chicago - 30-51 - .370 %
NFC South -
Carolina - 45-36 - .555 %
New Orleans - 33-48 - .407 %
Tampa Bay - 33-48 - .407 %
Atlanta - 42-40 - .506 %
NFC West -
San Francisco - 42-39 - .519 %
Arizona - 45-36 - .555 %
St. Louis - 33-48 - .407 %
Seattle - 37-44 - .457 %
NFC East -
Philadelphia - 42-40 - .506 %
New York Giants - 33-48 - .407 %
Dallas - 45-36 - .555 %
Washington - 42-40 - .506 %
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In closing, thus far... On November 17th, 2010... We have played BY FAR the the toughest schedule in the NFL.
And, have played all three 7 win teams.
If you want to bash this team, fine, but don't make up stuff. Thanks.
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If you want to kill some more time, look up our opponents' SOS based on last year's record, just for another comparative twist.
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Eh, I don't feel like doing that, because it doesn't matter. Last year doesn't mean anything to me. It's all about what are you doin' for me now.
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Legend
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Quote:
We have played...
All 3 teams that are currently 7-2
4 of the 8 teams that are 6-3
1 team that is 5-4
and the Bungles who are 2-7
I absolutely defy you to show me a team that has played that kind of a schedule..
it's ridiculous, isn't it?
well, the only way it's possible anyone else has played that kind of schedule would mean they are in the same division (to get to play the AFC East, North and NFC South).
But, you have to rule out the Rats and Pukes because they played us and the Bungles (which means 2 sub .500 teams).
That leaves the Bengals as the only team in the NFL that could have possibly played the same type of schedule.
2of3 7-2 teams (Bengals haven’t played the Jets.)
4of8 6-3 teams
1 5-4 team
1 3-6team
1 1-8 team
So, basically the same except we played the 7-2 Jets, they played the 1-8 Panthers. That might be big 
#gmstrong
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Buffalo is the closest team to us in strength of schedule so far.
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Legend
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I had that post open for a long time. So long that you were able to do the SOS for all the other teams
#gmstrong
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Quote:
I had that post open for a long time. So long that you were able to do the SOS for all the other teams
Wow. I FINISHED that post an hour and a half ago, and it took me about 30 min. to do
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So the AFC North has a hard sched as of now...tough luck....I don't like excuses...and fact remains the teams we played are just slightly above average in the stats department, which means some teams we faced overachieve compared to their actual record (TB, KC and NE come to mind) Also, it's no coincidence that sub.500 teams have a higher SOS %....you'll see that EVERY year...and you know why? because they don't subtract the games they play themselves, worse teams have higher SOS %, because they lose more than they win....been that way forever....what's BUF's SOS % if you take out the games the played? Do the same with CLE and winning teams...and you will see the % gap will be closed. A "cleared" SOS would be more indicative of the actual SOS I still consider it an inacceptable excuse.... Btw, here are the preseason SOS for 09 and 10: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft09/news/story?id=4027503http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/21479/2010-strength-of-schedule
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
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You are correct that true SOS should take out the games that the team has played in. This is not how the NFL and others show it, but it is a more realistic way of doing it (several of the computer polls for the BCS use this method).
However, the schedule is HUGE in the NFL where teams talent is relatively similar. See the 2007 Browns vs. 2008 Browns for one such example.
Also, look at those 3 teams you brought up:
Kansas City - 34-47 - .420 %
New England - 37-44 - .457 %
Tampa Bay - 33-48 - .407 %
Of course their record will be better than their stats. They are playing easier opponents. The point was that if we played easier opponents, we would have a better record. Simple.
At the end of the day, we all want to win and make the playoffs, but it's just pointing out that we are, perhaps, better than that 3-6 record shows (giving us hope for the rest of the year and next year).
#gmstrong
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 Well... I am sure that YOU know what you were talking about. Subtracting out games where they play themselves? Are you talking about training camp? Also, who cares about SOS for 09 and 2010?
There is no level of sucking we haven't seen; in fact, I'm pretty sure we hold the patents on a few levels of sucking NOBODY had seen until the past few years.
-PrplPplEater
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j/c
Stats are what people use instead of their eyes to come up with conclusions they can't seem to grasp for themselves OR use to scew them in a way to suit their agenda.
Pick your poison.
We have played some of the toughest teams in the NFL. Other than Pitsburgh, we played all of them very competatively.
I don't need stats to tell me that because my eyes can do that.
jmho
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
#gmstrong
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All Pro
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Fine, take games against us out.
46-26 = .639 winning percentage, which is...the toughest schedule in the NFL.
Last edited by deathdawg17; 11/18/10 01:55 AM.
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Quote:
Fine, take games against us out.
46-26 = .639 winning percentage, which is...the toughest schedule in the NFL.
Well you just went and blew that argument all to hell .......
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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1st String
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Quote:
Fine, take games against us out.
46-26 = .639 winning percentage, which is...the toughest schedule in the NFL.
untill you do the same for us, by taking the cinci game out out . . . then we have .694
Ruining QB's since 1999.
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As I said from the beginning...I think it's an excuse...we now will face "softer" competition and from the teams we played I think KC, TB and NE will have a lower W% and the end of the season...so let's do the math there and then again....and let's look at OUR W-L then...I still maintain that 7 wins is the max and borderline utopic
I gave you guys other 3-6 teams, even 2-7 teams that had wins against better competition and played competitive football all year..there ARE NO ELITE teams anymore....even Peter King got that...pretty much any team can beat any other on any given sunday and we've won 3 and lost 6 of those games.....and I don't party competitiveness, I expect it....almost all NFL teams have been regularly competitive this year, that doesn't make us "better" and me more optimistic for the future
#gmstrong
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An them I saw her face.....Now I'm a Believer.... Go Monkeys
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An them I saw her face.....Now I'm a Believer....
Go Monkeys
Smash Mouth!
Last edited by CapCity Dawg; 11/18/10 08:26 AM.
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B will just have to wait to see how this all plays out.
I think that as the season draws to a close or if the schedule where played in reverse the Browns stats would be better, along with their record. But the only stat that really counts is W–vs-L. So will just see where we come out on that front. I’m thinking we improve, have improved and will continue to improve.
I can honestly see this team running the table from here, and that passes my eye test. Our record should drastically improve from here on out. Again that’s a product of my eye test.
More importantly to me is how do you and others view this teams progress this season? Not so much record wise but team performance. What areas do you view as improved? What areas need to improve? What was your best case scenario for this team this season?
How do you view player development? How are we doing with the development of Colt? How has the team developed over the season? How are our rookies doing? Are they getting better? And finally have we improved our stat’s? Is it measurable improvement.
But all those questions can’t be answered right now we can say it looks like it’s headed in this direction. I certainly believe that we are on a steady uphill move. I see the team’s improvement over the course of the 1st 9 games as being steady and encouraging. That is what I hoped for from jump.
I had no plans on the PO’s I just didn’t see it based on talent, and based on schedule, and based on the length of time these guys had playing together. I know many fans think well we have better talent so we should see it on the field, and I see it. But that really isn’t the point when you turn over 5 starters on defense from a year ago you go thru growing pains then you get better. We got better IMO. How that plays out to the end I think will be the strongest indicator of how we are doing, and where we are headed for the future.
Most of the better teams feast on teams that are bringing up the rear. But in spite of the fact that we are bringing up the rear, I wouldn’t say the better teams we have faced have exactly feasted on us. Yup were 3-6 so we have lost our share for sure, but the best of the good teams we faced this year are 2-2 against us. That tells me all I need to know about where we are going. BTW that’s our last 4 games.
When we hit the tuffest part of our schedule we began to show the most improvement, that’s huge IMO.
Let’s just hold off on how this will end until it ends. All signs are will close strong lets see if that happens.
BTTB
BTTB
AKA Upbeat Dawg
Can't believe I am in a group that is comprised of the best NOT just fans but people on the planet.
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Quote:
But the only stat that really counts is W–vs-L.
For most people that's all that matters..
For others, what matters is How they won, who they beat, who beat us, what the winning percentages of the teams we play was last season and this season and if the coach that started the season remains the coach for the upcoming season and if the QB has small hands, large hands, can run around outside the pocket, what foot he throws off of, if it's perception that he can or can't throw the long ball accurately, if he has a running game or doesn't have a running game...etc etc..
I could go on and on, but you all get the drift....
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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I would be happy just to finish the year as well as last, at least, playing as well or better, and better than at the start of this year,....  Those two, ANY TWO of those winnable games -- pretty much all six of them -- would have had us at 5-4. I agree, that by "eye-test," the Browns CAN run the table. Even without making the playoffs, that would be sweet.
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Quote:
More importantly to me is how do you and others view this teams progress this season? Not so much record wise but team performance. What areas do you view as improved? What areas need to improve? What was your best case scenario for this team this season?
How do you view player development? How are we doing with the development of Colt? How has the team developed over the season? How are our rookies doing? Are they getting better? And finally have we improved our stat’s? Is it measurable improvement.
We DID progress overall but we took several steps back to do so...and it's not like it was hard to progress from last season, everyone expected it and it was rather easy to achieve....the TB and KC losses still hurt and are the main reason why I don't trust and believe in this coaching staff....they simply take too long to "know" their own team
We improved the running game thanks to Hillis and further development of Mack, Steiny has upped his game again, Thomas is solid as always though starting off rather bad (for his standards)...we obviously need a passing game, everyone knows it...but that doesn't make it less of a problem....we continue to be one of the worst passing teams
My best case scenario was 7-9 wins, simply because I think EVERY NFL team nowadays can be a .500 team if everything clicks....realistically I expected around 6 wins for us
Development is there...but again, it's not so hard to accomplish if you start off taking steps back...and that's what we did by starting off 1-5 yet again.
I know the homers and Mangini's "process" rhetoric by now: they say it's necessary to take those steps back in order to get better...I think it's BS...just excuses in order to highlight the positive games and hide the bad ones (thus absolving "the process" from any criticism, making it an apology for anything...Mangini himself revealed it by resorting to "faith" and "believe" in one of his "I'm so open to anyone" interveiws when he was about to get fired late last season) ....reality thogh is that ALL of them count, not just the latest one...at the end of the day you're as good as your record says, I loved that about Romeo: he wasn't BSing anyone....at least he was a honest bad HC. It's all about bottom line performance...and we're still bottom 3rd in this league
I like and applaud Mangini to have found his onions somewhere along the season (see NO and NE games)...it's too bad that he always needs to start off horrible to pull them out...that's a pattern with him, last year was the same....he's best when his @$$ is on fire...but for me that's a "too little too late" HC....and I can't live with just "potential" in that regard...it's like with players...he's kind of an underachiever in that regard....he has shown he can be a good HC every now and then but ego or incompetence (your choice) have mired too many of his other games...his teams have always been streaky, that's also why he gets either loved or hated...some bite on the tease, some don't....the Jets needed 3 years to give up on the tease, I guess we need as much time....so be it, some need to learn the hard way I guess
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
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We need to go into Jacksonville and deliver an absolute spanking for me to really become a believer. A complete dominant and decisive victory.. Over a lesser quality team IMHO.
It would help but what doesn't fade from me is the fact we should have spanked Tampa/KC..instead we come out slow as usual..and find ways to lose.
Then U have some really silly ingame and personnel decisons that no one can defend anywhere,but some of the posters will try.
Just like this [past game,game/clock management confuses me at time,because I don't know what they're trying to do..some of U who saw the first half know what I mean,especially in the red zone and the last series inside our 5...tell me what they were trying to do..
Sure,the Browns are playing hard and while that may make you more competitive,it wins that really put the stamp on things and some of the other patsies are actually getting wins.
Last edited by Attack Dawg; 11/18/10 09:47 AM.
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To add to that and get more specific...everyone, even the most loyal Mangini supporters, are scratching their head at why Wright still starts over Haden...for weeks now...you know, the HC can change that...he simply doesn't and while I don't think Wright is as horrible as he's made on here I also question why a more solid Haden doesn't start over him by now
That's one of themost disturbing things with Mangini...he's not consistent, not even with his "style" in being hard....when he inserts Harrison for the kneel down "to send a message"...it's ok, even though we lack depth at RB...at CB, where we HAVE depth he keeps paying Wright over Haden...no message there...why? Why should he get a pass here? Double standards anyone?
He sure seems to have favs and simply guys he doesn't like for some very obscure reasons...and my best guess (opinion alert!) is that those reasons are personal, which shouldn't be part of a HC's job....MANAGE characters, don't try to mold them...you're not a teacher, you're a manager
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I don't care about preseason SOS. You said we haven't played a diffucult schedule so far. I'm not denying how much easier it gets, but to say we haven't played a tough schedule to this point is just wrong.
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Statistically (yds) we haven't, W-L we have...that means we haev faced some overachieving teams and I consider TB, KC and NE as overachievers right now
and while preseason SOS is not as important as actual SOS, it's an indication that the teams we faced weren't all that just 1 season before....and while the "process" rhetoric says you can't improve overnight...well, why and how do those teams while we are here gain making up excuses?
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
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