DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) DawgTalker mock drafts

thanks. i figured it was a positional thing (only truly elite RBs deserve 1st round), but wanted to be sure that's how you felt.

before I get to the part where I agree: Felix Jones can only really be considered a bust because he can't stay healthy. He has been very good when he has been on the field. even though he played 16 games last year, many of those were playing hurt so he only started 7 games and he still ended with a 4.3 YPC and 48 receptions (1250 yds from scrimmage). He is a 5.3YPC guy for his career so far (he needs to score more TDs but Garrett put the bigger/stronger Barber and Choice in the Cowboys red zone offense).

-----------------------------------------------

I agree that the positional difference in a 1st round RB compared to a 4th round RB isn't all that great compared to other positions. if the Browns were in the market for a RB, I would much rather them pickup a Delone Carter in the 4th round than Leshoure in the 1st (picking 2 similar style RBs for this example).

jc

Since we're talking position value in drafts, here's a re-post answer of mine from another board where a poster argued that picking Carimi for RT in the 1st and enjoying years of good RT play would be a good pick for us, consequently he argued that Mack was a good move too....I disagree and here's the extended version as to why:


There is a reason DL, LT and QBs tend to be "overdrafted" and go more often in the Top 15 and RBs, ILB, C, G and RT fall in drafts....2 reasons in fact: for once the former positions have more impact and 2. there are less really good players at those positions than the later group....the drop off from a Mack to an AVG NFL C (make a list and look at the names of about the 13th to 15th best C, still pretty good ones) is marginal at best and those guys can even have a better year here and there than a Mack (even more so at positions like RB, I think the best/most impact 2 rookies last year were UDFAs, lol)....but at QB? DE? Drop off from Manning to Sanchez? You think Sanchez will ever have a better year than Manning?...that's why you RISK more at the top on DL, LT and QB....they HAVE MORE VALUE, I'm talking position scarcity....C-value is even worse when you add simple roster quantity: there's only 1 starter you need (lots of positions have 2 or "3", like CBs, WRs)....

RBs, RTs etc are dime a dozen, just because we are too dumb to find a RT (have we even ever tried in mid rounds?) doesnt mean it's a league wide problem, in fact it isn't....it's easier to find starters at those positions in mid to late rounds than QB, LT or DE, look at all RTs and look where they were drafted...THAT'S how you WORK a draft...of course you can go the SAFE route and draft the highest picked C (Mack) or RT (Carimi) in a decade (probably more, maybe EVER) and be proud to have found an above AVG starter....great, but what about the rest of the draft? You now have wasted your top pick on a below AVG value position that has value later in the draft, pretty much excluding them with your next picks...and instead you're reaching to find solutions at scarcity positions with your crappier picks...that's what happened in the 09 draft....and we already see that all what's left that can and will be an above AVG starter in this league is Mack from this draft...that's a bad draft when you pick at the top of every round...all that's left from our top 10 pick value wise is Mack, and that's horrible....that's how scared idiots who can't evaluate prospects AND DON'T UNDERSTAND POSITION VALUE approach the draft

With our number of needs, quantitatively, at scarcity positions, qualitatively, it would be very DUMB to draft a RT (forget about Carimi as LT, I even think he'd only be an AVG to ok RT...his bigger value is as G imho) in the 1st....even after a trade down into the mid 1st like we did with Mack

So, of course it's a better BET to put your money on Carimi instead of Gabbert...Carimi most probably will have more starts, that's a given...so what? If you don't have a QB and RT you RISK on a QB high and TRY for a RT later....the other way around is what perennial crap teams like us do....the Steelers drafted Ben and THEN Starks in the 4th or 3rd, THAT'S how you WORK draft VALUE...of course we can pick the Macks, Carimis and the best ILB every year....as long as we trot out middling at best (talking McCoy here or Frye, Quinn etc before) QB talent we won't go anyway....of course Gabbert is a much bigger RISK, with LESS immediate impact than a Carimi (and really, whoever needs immediate impact out of this draft doesn't get our situation) BUT he plays a position that simply impacts the game much, much more than Carimi's...so, if we HIT on Carimi (very likely, either as RT or G, similar value anyway) we have improved a bit, if we hit on Gabbert we have improved a TON...."a bit" your shooting for in the mid rounds, NOT the 1st or even TOP of 1st

I mean, just look at our draft history: we bypassed Ben for Winslow (Schaub for S.Jones too same draft), Rodgers for BE (we opted for Frye later, who would trade both BE and Frye today for Rodgers?), Sanchez or Freeman for Mack and a bunch of stop gaps (I'm no Sanchez pimp by any means but he's better that what we had and have, Freeman even more....and I'd be ok if we had "just" another young C like Caldwell, the next C we could have drafted, he was 3rd rounder btw, who is starting for a pretty good HOU Offense)...instead we bypassed position-value in Orakpo or Sancehz or Freeman or Crabtree for Mack and later had to risk for Veikune and the crappy WRs, instead of picking up the value of the round for a RT (Vollmer, Loadholt) or C (Caldwell)...who would you rather have today and what would be better for your team? Mack and Veikune or Orakpo and Caldwell? Mack and Massa or Crabtree and Caldwell?

Or in other terms: would you rather have the BEST pass rusher or best WR of the draft PLUS the 3rd best C OR the best C and the 5th+ WR or pass rusher?

You know how that happened? Because we didn't play and understand position value in a draft

Easy isn't it? You take a stab at a good pass rusher or elite position player AND THEN pick up a decent C, not go safe at C and then scramble for a pass rusher from Hawaii or West Texas A&M....haven't we learned anything even from our OWN history?

I don't think Cameron Jordan is as big a reach as some would believe at 6.
I think that he is the safest pick on the DL outside of Dareus.




Tend to agree..I really would like to see Dareus fall to the Browns,there are a lot of undersized DE's to take in round two,plus with the need for a receiver it's going to make the selection harder.

jc

Our yearly 32GMs mock draft started last night, Im picking for the Browns of course. This mock will have 4 picks a day for 4 rounds and then speeds up a bit to get the whole 7 rounds finished right before the draft. 32 different guys, who are mostly diehards of their teams are picking here, no player trades allowed, only pick trades (1 sided trades can get vetoed)....2 picks in so far:

Round 1:

Pick #1: Carolina Panthers - Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama
Pick #2: Denver Broncos - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

I'll keep you updated, my pick is due tomorrow, my top 5 is/was (in no order): Gabbert, Green, Dareus, Jordan, Peterson....I hope 1 of those will be there at 6...discussion, suggestions (your top 5 for our respoective picks) and criticism are welcome

pretty much agree with everything here concerning draft value at certain positions.

Ryan Tucker was a 4th round pick. He is just an example,but RTs are better taken in mid-rounds.
Decent interior linemen can be found in later rounds and even undrafted at times, ditto for fullback.
Free safety is another late round position, Lately strong safety has moverd higher up in draft boards.

I would prefer to stay clear of any OL, safeties and RBs in first 4 rounds this draft.Unless, of course, a player falls into our lap earlier.

Two "skill" position players I like in later rounds are

Da'Rel Scott ( RB, Maryland) and Cecil Shorts ( WR, Mt. Union)

Shorts is projected as a 5th rounder and Scott a 5th or 6th. both have speed which is sorely lacking on the Browns. Personnaly, I would not be upset if all first 4 rounds were spent on defense.

We have two 6ths this year IIRC.

Django - I have watched you do this draft in years past and usually like the outcome you provide for the Browns. My one suggestion for you this year is regarding Gabbert. I know you are really high and him but I don't see the Browns taking him with the number 6 overall pick. If he is available, I believe the Browns would trade down (hopefully to include a #1 in the 2012 draft). And we should be able to trade down a couple spots and still get Jordan who is one of your top guys.

Just my 1 cent. Take it for what it is worth.

Been thinking about this possibility now that OLB Von Miller just was picked for Buffalo....I still think Gabbert will be picked up by CIN or ARI in our mock...will be tough to choose between Green and Jordan if both are there...but I think Green and Gabbert, will go next...if CIN opts for a QB then ARI will go DL, maybe even Jordan...but I hope they go with Fairley


This was my mock last draft (note: pre-S.Brown trade so I had more picks and I did some additional trades too)


Pick #7: Cleveland Browns - Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Pick #38: Cleveland Browns - Nate Allen, FS, South Florida
Pick #62: Cleveland Browns - Dexter McCluster, WR, Ole Miss
Pick #85: Cleveland Browns - Mike Johnson, OG/RT, Alabama
Pick #92: Cleveland Browns - Eric Norwood, OLB, South Carolina
Pick #129: Cleveland Browns - T.J. Ward, S, Oregon
Pick #137: Cleveland Browns - Tony Moeaki, TE, Iowa
Pick #146: Cleveland Browns - Daniel Te´o-Nesheim, LB, Washington
Pick #160: Cleveland Browns - Dezmon Briscoe, WR, Kansas
Pick #161: Cleveland Browns - Clifton Geathers, DE, South Carolina
Pick #177: Cleveland Browns - Sean Canfield, QB, Oregon State
Pick #238: Cleveland Browns - Joique Bell, RB, Wayne State

Still regret picking DL Geathers over DL Peters, dumb mistake....pretty happy overall, 4 rookie starters picked with 1 who will most likely end up as one too (G Johnson, was IRed preseason) and 2-3 other contributors, who have still some upside left and can become starters down the road (McCluster, Norwood, T'eo Nesheim)...will be hard to match this result again

Quote:

---

4. DT Phil Taylor..... Baylor

---

This guy is racing up the draft boards...I doubt if he makes it past the 2nd round! Would Love to get him in Rd-3 though. JMHO Go Brownies!!!

He and Paea are my targets for round 2...I doubt he'll be there though, he's considered a Top30 talent by now

Quote:

---

If he [Gabbert] is available, I believe the Browns would trade down (hopefully to include a #1 in the 2012 draft).

---

Only way we get a 1st rounder for 2012 is if someone from the mid-teens or above trades down.

Say the Redskins want to trade up from pick #10; They will not trade next year's 1st rounder to move up four spots. We would likely get their 2nd round pick and a later pick.

6 Robert Quinn DE North Carolina
37 Torrey Smith WR Maryland
70 Kenrick Ellis DT Hampton
101 Marcus Gilbert OT Florida
137 Ross Homan OLB Ohio State
163 Martin Parker DT Richmond
165 Dane Senzenbacher WR Ohio State

jc

Mock update...as expected Green and Gabbert went off the board, so I picked DE Jordan....durable, great mix of strenght and speed and the most versatile DL in this draft....and he dominated in offseason play (= he ws the best SR Bowl week player, beating the best OL talent of this draft lined up inside AND outside)....when looking at his sack stats don't forget: he played DE in a 3-4 and came off an impressive JR season (= more attention)....compares to C.Long and Tamba Hali imho...C.Long also was a 3-4 DE at Virginia whos switched to SDE in a 4-3

Round 1:

Pick #1: Carolina Panthers - Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama
Pick #2: Denver Broncos - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Pick #3: Buffalo Bills - Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
Pick #4: Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Pick #5: Arizona Cardinals - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Pick #6: Cleveland Browns - Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Pick #7: San Francisco 49ers - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Pick #8: Tennessee Titans - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

Hate away.... edit: oh, and the 49ers FO already hates me...they were ready to pick Jordan and were left scrambling after I did....they have a multi-men FO, some apparently wanted Quinn, some wanted J.Jones....they settled on Amukamura saying that Spencer and Clements disappointed last season and Clements most probably will be cut

I would be really happy with Jordan.

Me too, obviously....the more I found out the more I liked him....here's a Jordan-Bowers breakdown:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Breaking-down-Jordan-and-Bowers.html

Quote:

---

b/c of the McNabb trade the Redskins may not have a 2nd rounder this year.

---

I don't know what they have. I was just using them as an example of what a team would have to give up to get our 1st round pick.

I have no problem with Jordan as a player. But I don't think he is the 6th best player in the draft. I expect us to take the best player available. I think that Amukamara, Julio Jones, Nick Fairley, Robert Quinn, and Da'Quan Bowers will all be rated higher than Jordan.

I hope not...Imho Jordan represents the best upside-floor projection outside of Peterson and Green, who are premiter players....he's getting rave reviews from anyone who has watched him on film extensively, again only Peterson/Green are in the same class here.

Many superficial observers maybe think he can't rush the passer but that's not the case....he was a terror at the SR Bowl, has different pass rush moves...he can play outside, inside or with his hands off the ground...going 100% every snap (VERY important to hear scouting a DL)....he's a Top5 player hands down (pun intended)...is he a Top5 ceiling player? probably not...but looking at the bust % of recently drafted DL he was this draft's version of Haden, whom I picked in my mock 1year ago...everybody was "meh" on that too, even on draftday...I also drafted Ward and was probably the only 1 supporting this pick 1min after the fact....guys, by now you should just trust me blindly

If Quinn wasn't suspended we would be talking about him as the 1st overall pick. If we could get that type of talent at #6 I think we have to do it. I would rather have the elite pass rusher over anything else.

Fairley and Bowers both scare me, I only mentioned them in my previous post because many have them ranked high.

If we were still in the 3-4 I would like Jordan a lot more because of his versatlity. With the 4-3 we have to have a guy that can get to the QB. Can Jordan rush the passer? Yes. Does he have elite pass rushing potential like Quinn? No.

With all that said, I wouldn't be mad if we picked Jordan. Like you said it's a safe pick.

(P.S. No one cares what you thought about last year's draft )

Quote:

---

this draft's version of Haden, whom I picked in my mock 1year ago...everybody was "meh" on that too, even on draftday.

---

I was very happy with Haden as the #7 pick.

Quote:

---

I also drafted Ward and was probably the only 1 supporting this pick 1min after the fact

---

You've got me there.

Quote:

---

guys, by now you should just trust me blindly

---

I definitely respect your opinion more than most, but I'm not down with Gabbert. Of course, I'm terrible when it comes to QBs. But then, I can't think of the last time I actually liked a "1st-round QB."

Why do you like Jordan better than Watt? Watt has got more strength, is basically a carbon copy in terms of size, has come up huge in big games, and showed as much athleticism at the combine as any DL. Just curious.

OK .... my guess for how this thing will turn out .....

1) Bowers: DE Clemson (Has all the tools to be a great player) I would almost prefer Jordan, but don't expect him to go here. Jordan could be the guy if the Browns can trade down a few spots.

2) Kerrigan: DE Purdue (Could be a 1st round guy ... but I see a few DE dropping out of the 1st)

3) Wright: CB Southern California (Good tools guy with fluid hips and good size/speed)

4) McCain: DT S Florida (Completes our starting DL, stocking us up with an imposing starting foursome. Not bad for 1 draft)

5) Gates: WR No Major College (Raw, but with good hands and exceptional speed)

6) Newton: OT Arkansas (Quality talent and ability that needs NFL refinement. Could be a huge steal if he works on his strength as a pro)

6) Saine: RB OSU (Excellent speed and hands. Quality runner, and decent blocker. Has "creates 3rd down problems for the defense" written all over him)

I tried to stay in the realm of reality in the first 4 rounds. I looked at a couple of sites to make sure I wasn't undervaluing guys too much in hopes of them falling. lol I do think that a quality DE or 3 will fall into the 2nd round just because of the sheer lack of talent/depth at so many other positions. Someone is going to reach for a guy because it's either him, or a 5th rounder.

I went with a couple of developmental type guys later in the draft ... and they could be boom/bust types. (Newton, Gates) However, late in the draft is where you can take a chance or 2, and I think that great potential will carry the day once we get to 5th/6th round territory. I think that Saine could be a huge steal late in the draft as a 3rd down type back. He has good size, and excellent speed. (4.40 40) He also has excellent hands, and would be a great guy to mix in on 3rd downs.

Well .... there's my mock. You can mock me for my mock all you like .... because I'm hardly a professional mockery ... just don't make too big a mockery of my mock. lol

LOL

Do 2 Wrights make a ...... Right?

Looks good YTown,

2) Kerrigan... Man that would be a no brainer, but I think of the DE that could be on the fence as far as going in the 1st, he would be my last choice to fall out of the first. I think Justin Houston or Aldon Smith stands a better chance at falling out and to us in the 2nd.

Yeah ... and I'd probably grab either one of them too. I just had to guess who would drop ..... almost flip a coin .... and he was the one. He's going to have to go to a team running a 4-3 .....and so that eliminates several teams. Then you look at who runs a 4-3 and needs DE help ....

Indy: No
Jags: Maybe
Titans: They have Babin, and need help elsewhere
Raiders: Probably not a big need
Giants: No
Eagles: Probably not a big need
Bears: No
Lions: Probably not ready to make another huge investment on DL, plus they have pretty good guys now.
Vikings: Not a big need
Falcons: Maybe they want a beast DE to pair with Abraham. Probably our biggest risk.
Saints: Big risk #2
Bucs: Maybe, but probably bigger needs elsewhere
Rams: I can see them looking hard for weapons for Bradford, plus they have solid DE play
Seahags: Could look for a guy to pair with Clemons

So I see 3 4-3 teams looking for DE help (besides us) so yeah, I could see a guy who will likely be a pure 4-3 DE falling ..... hopefully.

especially with Houston and Aldon Smith, but possibly with Kerrigan as well is that the 3-4 teams will grab them for OLB.

My new mock

1- DaQuan Bowers- DE Clemson
Best defensive end in the draft and could fall to us, although rumors of his knee not healing right or whatever they were were coming out of Denver so there is a chance he doesn't make it past them, Fox did coach Peppers who Bowers draws some comparison to.

2- Leonard Hankerson WR "The U"
Wasn't big on this guy prior to the senior bowl but he came out and shined, and then he backed that up with a great combine. After catching my attention I went back and watched a few videos of him on the net and was impressed, all those things combined make me a believer that he can be a legit number one receiver. He's tall, he's fast, he can catch, he can block seems like the real deal to me.

3- Allen Bailey DE-DT "The U"
Outstanding athlete who could play defensive end or put on some weight and move inside imo. Much has been said about getting faster and more athletic and I feel with these first three picks we have done just that. Bailey to me just seems like a classic Heckert pick. Bailey was widely considered a first round pick but because of a poor combine he has fallen very far and it would not suprise me to see him slip to us in the third round. With Bailey and Bowers I feel we would be set for years to come at the end positions.

4- Kelvin Sheppard ILB LSU
hard hitting middle linebacker with good instincts and is a vocal leader. isn't the fastest guy but is able to play sideline to sideline. It's really hard to judge where this guy is gonna go in the draft. Some people have him anywhere from the 2nd to the 5th round with guy's like Martez Wilson, Greg Jones, and Mason Foster being taken before him. Then there are some that have him going before half of them. Personally I would take any one of them to play ILB for the Browns but I prefer Sheppard and I hope he falls to us in the 4th.

5- Lee Ziemba OT/G Auburn
Honestly don't know a whole lot about this guy but we need a tackle and I wanted to take one earlier but didn't work out that way. Everything I have read says he would be capable to make the move to right tackle in the pro's and become an eventual starter there. Played RT in college and switched to LT. Sights have him going anywhere from the 4th to the late 5th.

6- Lawrence Wilson OLB Uconn
Once again speed and athletic ability come into effect. Wilson is a little undersized but what he lacks in size he more than makes up for in effort. Is a sideline to sideline player with good coverage abilitys. good instincts and a good tackler.

6- Chris L. Rucker CB/FS MSU
Is a very talented player who will go alot lower than his talent would suggest because of character concerns and having been in trouble a few times for drinking related incidents. Heckert has said that character won't be as big of a concern as it has been and they could take a chance on a few guys. I think this could be a good candidate, it's a low risk high reward pick. Played corner at Michigan state but I think he would project better to FS in the pro's due to his speed not quite being up to par of a CB, but his tackling and speed is definately up to par with a free safety.

Of that list I would have to say that the Vikings could look at DE with Edwards a FA.

The Buc's are solid in the middle, but DE might be their greatest need.

The Lions need help at LT/CB, but could feel that the 13th selection a bit high and go with a DE to pair with Cliff Avrial.
(sp?)
Jacksonville is another team that needs to add a DE I think.

And as no logo has pointed out already all of the above could be projected to OLB in the 34.

But I think one of the 3 could still fall to us if you factor in Brooks Reed too.

Yeah, a 3-4 team could try to convert him ..... but as recent history shows, that can be dicey .... ecpecially in the first round.

I think we'll still wind up with a high quality DE or DT available when we pick in the 2nd ..... most likely a DE at that pick.

Yeah, Jordan made mincemeat of those guys during SBW. To me, that just solidified the weakness of the OT class. They looked like garbage in general. Can you imagine Watt lining up against those guys? He'd put Nate Solder flat on his butt.

Welllll,since it's boring right now,time to rile som folks up in here...I happened to know the Browns players of interest..so don't be surprised if some of these names appear on the draft board..

1- Marcell Dareus/P.Peterson/Von Miller, Texas A&M * If one of these guys is there,they're gonna pull the trigger.

2-Brooks Reed / Ricky Elmore DE Arizona
3- Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin /James Brewer, Indiana OT
4- Demarcus Van Dyke, Miami / Chykie Brown, Texas / Curtis Brown, Texas CB
5-Chris Conte FS Oregon
6-Pat Devlin Delaware /Andy Dalton, TCU QB

Also DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma RB
John Moffitt G Wisconsin

Well, not crazy about that list....Reed and Conte are way overated. Reed is an overachieving pass rush specialist and not really dominant at this either ( to be fair though, he doesnt suck at playing th run like most pass rush specialists too...so, I guess that makes him "meh")...would rather take Elmore 2-3 rounds later (in fact I like the idea of Jordan in the 1st and Elmore in the 4th/5th...read last paragraph for further explanation)

Conte would be a 5th to 7th rounder in a normal S-class....now he'll go in the 3rd...I hope we don't need reach at S this draft...also he's a better run defender than centerfielder and we need the latter to compliment Ward

We clearly are looking for man coverage CBs...like Curtis Brown and would not hesitate taking him in round 3...Chykie could be a press/man CB sleeper since most of his negatives are Zone related...van Dyke is an athlete-late round develomental CB only

Devlin in the 5th would be a nice investment

Dareus would ba a no brainer, Peterson too as BPA...but Von Miller? Way too 1 dimensional for me to take anywhere in the 1st to be honest...I just cant justify taking a player who can't contribute on 3 downs on D with my top pick, no matter where in the 1st I'd pick....he's a 1 trick pony and I dont like to hear and read that he lacks moves and likes to go the way outside route/around the OT to rush the passer...that means he has done it all with his superior speed, that won't cut it in the NFL because the better NFL OTs will simply keep him outisde and the QBs get rid of the ball much quicker

Von Miller is the most likely to be there at 6...and if we take him I will lose a ton of faith in Heckert...I know he tries to draft for the Jauron system but banking on Miller to become Dwight Freeney is a big risk imho....how about this: take a guy like Jordan and a pass rush specialist in the 4th/5th...you'd have much better production and Top 10 DE play on 3 downs (basically 1.33 players if you think Jordan won't cut it as pass rush DE on 3rd down and you play him inside, inserting the mid round pass specialist)...much safer way of getting good production on 3 downs and I happily sacrifice the mid rounder to make sure...with Von Miller there's no backup plan in a draft...you guys get what Im saying?