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an extra number one and a two is really almost a 2 and a 3 the picks are so late. I would rather find another partner.
Almost. But it isn't.
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For AJ Green I would gladly take:
2011 1st Rounder
2011 2nd Rounder
2012 1st Rounder
Just for example sake that might be:
Gabe Carimi
Christian Ballard
Manti Te'o
Just sayin.
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I would ask for their entire 2011 draft. I want a Hershel Walker type of trade. I might consider their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 2011 and their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 2012.
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So Basically you guys don't want to trade? That would be like us trying to trade up from our Second round pick to 15 or 20th overall ... and that team saying, "Sure, for your 2nd and 3rd and 4th rounder you can have our first ... and your 2nd, 3rd, and 4th next year."
I would be all for getting a ton of value, but I just don't think everyone on here creates plausible trades that BOTH sides would agree to.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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The problem is that the Falcons pick so late that their picks are almost a full round later. so if we trade our first for their first it's almost like trading our first for a 2nd. In that case, then yes, I would want to see the FO completely rob a team drafting that low.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Right, but it's not "forever," it is only 20 spots. That being said I understand getting a lot out of it. But the fact that some people are suggesting even 4 players makes me feel unsure. Would the Browns give up 4 picks (with 2 potentially being a 1 and a 2 in NEXT year's draft) just to take a chance on a kid that was suspended?
If somehow we were in the the number 1 spot and someone wanted Andrew Luck ... Ok I buy it. But I really doubt that the Falcons would give up any combination of more than 3 players in the first two rounds this and next year, and they might say more players, but have it be something like a 1st, 2nd, 4th and a 3rd next year (or something more realistic). I know it's just my humble opinion, but I wouldn't trade a pair of firsts and seconds to get ANY receiver .. and maybe not ANY PLAYER in the league. Not Brady or Manning, Not AP or CJ, Not Joe Thomas, .... some players might be the best in the league ... but to have long term consistency you need to take a lot of good players ... not just 1 VERY good player.
How do you guys think the patriots keep trading out of the first round but keep doing pretty well on the field? When was the last time they picked a player in the top 10 or even 15 (and if so... when was the last time it was THEIR pick and not someone elses who they snagged in a trade?).
We have had some flashy players that (at times) could take over games and were very very good be it Kellen or Braylon or Joe ... but it you have 1 player who is potentially one of the best at their position ... you won't win many games unless you have some sort of quality at the other 10 spots. It doesn't matter how many times you pick a "sure thing" quality in the top 10... if you still have a hank poteat or a john st. clair on your field ... you will still have a liability.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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Yeah, but if you are dropping from your choice of some very highly rated guys at the top of the draft, to guys with far more questions as you get past 20, then it has to be worth the drop. Multiple picks this year, and a 1st and 2nd or 3rd next year is a good place to start. They want to move up ..... and we *could* have our eyes on Green anyway .......
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Very good point ... but let me ask you (and anyone else reading) to think about it this way ... If the Browns completely burn thier first round pick ... I mean something happens and the player we draft defects to Mexico and never plays a down ... (Stranger things have happened  ) then we would bear the heartache but would be A-OK if we found 2 or 3 starters and an additional rotational / developmental player or two. Good draft? eh ... but at least not a nightmare. However ... if a team takes a chance on a guy (or essentially "loses" the draft picks) of not only a 1st ... but of another 1st .. and then another 2nd and maybe even another second or potentially a 3rd .... that's what cripples a team. Losing out on 1 starter? It happens.... losing out on 3, 4, or even 5 to take 1 EVEN if he's a sure thing (which he isn't...) ... I just think back to the story that someone had said on this thread a few months ago saying that people on the Packers forum had talked each other into trading a 2nd rounder and aaron kampman (or whoever) it was for Joe Thomas and thought it would be a really good deal for both sides.... and i just don't see Atlanta offering more than 3 picks tops for 1 player.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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We'll have to see how close the Falcons see themselves. If they see themselves as being that one big home run hitter away from a championship, then you make it happen ....... even if the cost is painful.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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This draft has few Top talents...I'd say 5 to 7 (not including some low value positions like TE, G, RB, FB....Gabbert, Peterson, Green, Jordan, Dareus....Jones and Aukamura close)......the rest is a big pool of boom or bust and decent NFL talent.....I would not even trade out of #6 to pick #8 for a 2nd rounder because of this, even if I would do this in pretty much 95% of all drafts...every draft is different: evaluate the talent, look at your scenarios, make a good decision...and the best decision for the Browns is to pick 1 of the top players I mentioned AND NOT TRADE DOWN...especially not THAT far down
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
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I may be mistaken but I think the question was: What would we want to be willing to trade with Atlanta. Not what would Atlanta be willing to give up. Therefore doesn't need to be "reasonable". We are not the one's proposing the trade.
I would start with Atlanta's 1st and 2nd this year and their 1st and 2nd next year before I even considered the move. I would probably ask for both their 3rd this year and 3rd next year hoping for a counter offer from them where they ask to keep this year's 3rd. Then I would give it long consideration and hope on draft day that they blink and throw that 3rd in as well.
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That's a good point. I wasn't trying to demean anyone or anything... I just suppose if the entire question was what would we want to versus what would we want to *and actually have it be realistic* then why don't we say give us roddy white, matt ryan, michael turner, and only all of the odd picks in this and next years draft I just wonder overall if some people are down on the value of draft picks just because our organization hasn't been that good at finding quality players until recently. Would anyone hear actually trade up to take *any* player in this draft if we had to give up two firsts and two seconds? That's like saying (in a way ... I hope this isn't a stretch) ... we will move up to your spot and take the player that we want, and will potentially give up (if we trust our scouting department) a Alex Mack, Joe Haden, TJ Ward, and let's say Eric Wright ... for not even the best player in the draft, not even a sure thing ... but a kid that has question marks and isn't even the 100% consensus best player at his position in this draft. Not knocking or degrading anyone elses opinions ... I just want some clarifications or viewpoints on if any of you guys would even consider losing 3 let alone 4 or more STARTERS (at minimum that's what 1sts and 2nds should be) and maybe even pro-bowlers or impact players ... just for 1 player who has the same risk that those guys do ... but if you miss on one or even 2 of the other players, at least you still have Ð few picks to move your team forward ... if you actually give up multiple first and second day picks ... then you're in trouble.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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The problem is that the Falcons pick so late that their picks are almost a full round later. so if we trade our first for their first it's almost like trading our first for a 2nd.
I agree, and why I earlier said the deal would have to include a good player as well as picks.
Their first, second, and a player takes care of this year, and next years first and say fourth is the cake.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
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I may be mistaken but I think the question was: What would we want to be willing to trade with Atlanta. Not what would Atlanta be willing to give up. Therefore doesn't need to be "reasonable". We are not the one's proposing the trade.
I would start with Atlanta's 1st and 2nd this year and their 1st and 2nd next year before I even considered the move. I would probably ask for both their 3rd this year and 3rd next year hoping for a counter offer from them where they ask to keep this year's 3rd. Then I would give it long consideration and hope on draft day that they blink and throw that 3rd in as well.
This is what I call "bleeding." 
I believe Patrick Peterson is as sure fire a choice as any and we need another corner. If he is NOT there at # 6, I 'consider' a move, but it has to be for some dang good reciprocity.
The counter argumernt about draft depth is barely acceptable,...."maybe" we can get 2-3 starters from trading down ?? 
Please notice my lottery numbers didn't kick up last night either.
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The problem is that the Falcons pick so late that their picks are almost a full round later. so if we trade our first for their first it's almost like trading our first for a 2nd.
I don't have to buy the assumption that since the Falcons only have a pick late in the First round, that the Browns have to trade downt that far to make this trade.
Simply say to the Falcons, " Falcons, if you want the #6, or is it 7 I forget, pick, then it is going to cost you a 1st round pick this year in the top 15 and a 1st round pick next year and a pick in the top 75 of this years draft.
And Let the Falcons worry about coming up with the price.
Let the Falcons worry about trading up to the top 15 to get the pick it will cost to give to the Browns to give up the #6 overall .
Don't trade down 21 spots for future picks,
Do trade down 8 or 9 spots for future picks,
As long as they can still get Akeem Ayers , That's the guy I want!
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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Quote:
The problem is that the Falcons pick so late that their picks are almost a full round later. so if we trade our first for their first it's almost like trading our first for a 2nd.
I don't have to buy the assumption that since the Falcons only have a pick late in the First round, that the Browns have to trade downt that far to make this trade.
Simply say to the Falcons, " Falcons, if you want the #6, or is it 7 I forget, pick, then it is going to cost you a 1st round pick this year in the top 15 and a 1st round pick next year and a pick in the top 75 of this years draft.
And Let the Falcons worry about coming up with the price.
Let the Falcons worry about trading up to the top 15 to get the pick it will cost to give to the Browns to give up the #6 overall .
Don't trade down 21 spots for future picks,
Do trade down 8 or 9 spots for future picks,
As long as they can still get Akeem Ayers , That's the guy I want!
That is a great idea..except for the Akeem Ayers pick, but other than that..that would be the smartest thing to do if Heckert wanted to trade down. Me Personally, I would take Green, Peterson with the 6 if they are there..unless they see Julio Jones as a better prospect in this system and he slides...Then they would have to be drafting before Washington which drafts 10..so you would have to see if Dallas wanted that under 15 pick obtained from Atlanta and the late 3rd also obtained from them to get there..then You would be left with Julio Jones and Atlanta's 1st next year..ehhh...I don't know...Maybe I just take Watt and try to trade Atlanta's #1 next year to get a late first for Heyward Then draft Jerell Casey in the third..then the D line is set for a long time.. 
"Going from 4-12 to 6-10 isn't good enough. I believe we are going to be better than that. We're going to be a lot better than that." - Mike Holmgren (3/15/12)
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For AJ Green I would gladly take:
2011 1st Rounder
2011 2nd Rounder
2012 1st Rounder
Just for example sake that might be:
Gabe Carimi
Christian Ballard
Manti Te'o
Just sayin.
Carimi will be long gone by the time we use the high twenty something pick the falcons trade. ok I looked up the value chart. The Browns no 6 pick is 1600 points.
The falcons no 27 pick is 780, and they would toss in another 780 next year and a 310
so the Browns trade 1600...wait no one can trade on next year..and the profootball talk site said a #2 and a #1 so that is 780 plus 310= 1090 since no one can trade on next years pick.\
we would be trading 1600 for 1090. No deal
even if the falcons "could" trade next years #1 I would say another 780..you have a chance at 2 maybe pretty good and a special teamer for a STAR. no deal.
Years ago the cowboys gave up a bunch of table scraps in 1977 and got Tony Dorsett for a low first rounder and marginal players, none of whom were difference makers. The cowboys got elite. If we trade i do not want to move out of the elite top 10 or 12.
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I think that too many people pay attention to the "value chart" that floats around ... especially because every team has *some* version that they use but none are the same as far as point values. I believe the most popular one was released by the Dolphins and was more than a decade ago?
My point is I don't get how some people tend to overvalue higher picks but undervalue other ones...
Would you (anyone on here) rather have a first rounder (even the first overall in this class) and have to select a player ... you can't trade it.
OR would you rather have the 33rd, 34th, and 35th picks, (the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks in the second round) AND the 65, 66, and 67 (the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks in the third round) AND the 97th, 98th and 99th (1, 2, and 3 in the fourth round) Oh .. AND the 1st 2nd and 3rd picks in the 5th round which would be 129, 130, and 131 overall. PLUS you still have the 161, 162, and 163 (the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the sixth round) ... and you would still have more "value" points with the 1st overall (a fraction of a point but more nonetheless).
So would anyone here - I am honestly serious - would ANYONE rather have the first pick overall in THIS draft and have to use the pick.
OR would you rather have the first three picks of the rounds 2 through 6? 15 players or 1?
I really can't see the value in having the 1st overall.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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The point isn't really what we would want because yea we would all want Matt Ryan and Roddy White and their #1 this year but rather what is the minimum we would accept to move that far. Whether Atlanta would trade that much is up to Atlanta. Many times teams can't come to an agreement on fair value. You know what happens then? No trade. Simple.
As for would we give up 3-4 picks for 1 player is irrelevant. Our team is in a different place than Atlanta. We have numerous holes and are trying to become a .500 team. If Atlanta feels it is one player away from winning the Superbowl then maybe they use all those draft picks to get that one player.
Throw Long - Excellent idea telling Atlanta to trade into the top 15 then make us an offer.
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Good points. I like your thinking. Im on the same page as you as far as no trade if fair value isn't reached. But I really don't know a lot of teams that have traded up and offered the farm ... I dont think that the market is for multiple players is what I was trying to get at.
Let's take a look at some recent examples:
In the 2010 draft ...
The Eagles traded up to get Brandon Graham from #24 to #12 ... a total of 12 spots ... and they only got 2 third rounders in addition to the traded down first.
Then the Chargers traded up from #28 to #13 (15 spots) and only gave up an additional late round second and a late round 4th plus a linebacker named Tim Dobbins. He had 47 tackles, 5 TFL's and a sack ... not a bad player but nothing to write home about.
Even though the Falcons to the Browns would be roughly 21 spots (the exact difference is 21 in the 1st round but the order changes in subsequent rounds don't forget...) it's still pretty close to the Chargers trade. I figure we would be more in line to get the Falcon's late 1st plus a late 2nd ... then instead of a fourth we would get their 3rd as well or maybe even next year's second but that could be pushing it.
That's why I am in no way trying to disrespect anybody's opinion, but don't get how we go from roughly a 1, 2, and 4 to a pair of 1's and 2's and maybe more?
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I don't know how NFL teams view it but I certainly believe that the difference between the #21 and #28 picks is fairly miniscule most years whereas the difference between #13 and #6 can be huge.
How many years do you look at the players coming out in the draft and say there are 5-6 premier players? How often do you say Geez there are 13 premier players? I think (most years) the perceive pre-draft talent has a huge drop off from somewhere between 5 and 8 to that next tier of players.
That is why I think moving from 21 to 6 should cost way more than moving from 28 to 13. Following your logic you could argue that some team moves from the 247 pick to the 226 pick for a 7th rounder next year so that is what we should expect in return from the Falcons for such a move. After all that is 21 places as well.
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No not necessarily. I'm not suggesting at all that it is a true science and I know that it's just a "how desperate are you" type of thing especially when the clock is ticking and you know other teams are on the other line for the pick as well. But as I said, I am not just looking at the number of spots, I gave two examples of two trades where a team moved from the mid to late 20's into the early teens. Yes they would have to go up farther and therefore give up more to get to 6, but once again ... I just used it as a benchmark. Besides ... I could always say that if Mangini is in control (or Phil) then a trade up of only 1 or two spots in the first round is worth a 6th Overall, however, while I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, I just think that the best way to gauge what we could get would be consistent to what has been done in the past. That's how the market is set for trades. So why if a team could move up from the mid to late twenties and into the early teens for ether two thirds OR a second and a fourth .. why do some fans on here suggest that to go from that spot in the teens, it would ulimately cost another first and maybe another second? With that thinking we could just trade down to Washinton at 10 or so for another first and second next year? Not disgareeing with you as much as I am trying to figure out if some are onto something that I don't see or if it's just over - coveting our pick syndrome.
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I don't know how NFL teams view it but I certainly believe that the difference between the #21 and #28 picks is fairly miniscule most years whereas the difference between #13 and #6 can be huge.
How many years do you look at the players coming out in the draft and say there are 5-6 premier players? How often do you say Geez there are 13 premier players? I think (most years) the perceive pre-draft talent has a huge drop off from somewhere between 5 and 8 to that next tier of players.
That is why I think moving from 21 to 6 should cost way more than moving from 28 to 13. Following your logic you could argue that some team moves from the 247 pick to the 226 pick for a 7th rounder next year so that is what we should expect in return from the Falcons for such a move. After all that is 21 places as well.
Excellent post and my point exactly. trading out of the stud choices back to the 28th is a HUGE drop and worth big time compensation trading #1s and getting a #2 is way not enough. Plus the Falcons could not trade next years picks or any players.
Say the browns get a #1,( trading places) #2, #3 are the extra picks.
browns= 1600 points
Falcons (1) 660 + (2) 310 + (3) 136 = 1046 way too little.
The falcons are in no position to trade players or future picks unless there is an agreement..so right now they are not the trading partners.
Say Washington or minnesota covet a QB that is available now that presents a different picture
Washington 10 spot (1) 1300 (2) 450
0r they do so for a first and a third 1300 + 220= 1520
then we are not far from the elite and we grab Carimi and the best possible DT with our #2 pick and use on of the #3s for a DB and a wr.
Or Minnesota 12 (1) 1200 (2) 460 almost even and we get carimi and get a DT and a WR with the 2 second round picks.
I just don't think Atlanta is a good trade partner as we lose all chances at the elite players even if we get an extra 2 and a 3 they are very late in those rounds.
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Good point about future draft picks. When this thread started we (I) were under the impression that players could not be included in draft day trades but next year's picks could. Since then I have heard (but don't know for sure - anybody have a link) that next year's draft picks cannot be included.
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Why, because of no CBA ?
This just gets more laughable (not directed at you) every day I read something new.
I now almost hope there is NO season this year.
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Jester,
I originally heard draft picks couldn't be included ... but then heard that they *could* ... however it was under the assumption that until a new deal is reached as far as the CBA goes, the draft of 2012 will not happen. So you can trade the "rights" to draft, but theoretically the draft rules themselves may change, so there is not guarantee.
Once again it's only what I heard. If true, it has to deal with the idea that the draft is technically (per league definition) at the end of the season. So the 2011 draft is actually the last item on the 2010-2011 season and therefore still included in the expired CBA to schedule.
Free agency starts the 2011-2012 offseason and effectively starts the 2011-2012 league year, which is more or less nonexistent right now, as is the 2011-2012 regular season and playoffs ... and then so is the 2011-2012 league year end which includes the draft and probowl. It's funny, though, how some of these dates are still included in a specific part of the league year while they shifted around in real life dates (how the draft is part of last year, but comes AFTER "next years" scheduled free agency ...)
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@pstu24
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Joe, while I can agree with the overall idea of losing out on the top tier of talent ... I still admit I don't understand how the point chart fits in to this.
If Atlanta called and LITERALLY offered their entire draft... their WHOLE thing ... picks 1-7 (they own the 27th pick in each round from 1-7 and then the 28th pick in the 7th round as well)
That would be not only 8 players, but also the ammunition to move around further in the draft. We would effectively have a late round 1st, but then 2 picks in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th ... three in the 6th and 2 in the 7th. We would walk away with a chance to answer EVERY need. 6 picks in the first 104 (or so) picks? We would have enough for a very good wideout, a solid free safety, and FOUR count em FOUR star D-linemen.... then come back with our other 4th, 2 5ths, and 3 6ths and 2 7ths and either fill in the needs for corner, linebacker, and right tackle as well as take a flier or two on a few other guys ... or we could even trade around and end up moving back into the 2nd and 3rd with a total of 7 picks in the 5th, 6th, and 7th ...
My point is ... even though I would much rather have all of that value than an early first rounder (and I know that it just might be me) ... according to the NFL draft point chart ...
Value for the 6th overall is 1600 ...
Value for Atlanta's 1-7 plus their other 7 is ... 1229.5 .... they would still need to throw in something like next year's second to make it work ... and then if they finish in the top 12 teams in the league next year, we still don't come out ahead.
That is why I don't buy into the numbers as much. I would trade our 6th for Atlanta's full draft, another 7th and next year's 2nd (which the point charts say are equal) ... but it won't happen. Ever.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 28,201
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 28,201 |
I'm going to file this entire thread under "Smoke Screen/Gamesmanship".
Ask yourselves this: Why would any team anywhere say that they'd do this... much less say it publicly (to the media) and this far out from the Draft?
There is only one answer: they're playing somebody. Why? Because who in their right mind would announce that they're gonna come calling if Player 'A' drops to #6??
They lose all leverage, and the team at #5 gains ALL leverage.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
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Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 42,413
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 42,413 |
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693 |
I can see Cincy either taking Green or jumping all over a deal like this. IMHO, no way does Green fall to us.
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/hfMNC7T.jpg) "I am undeterred and I am undaunted." --Kevin Stefanski "Big hairy American winning machines." --Baker Mayfield #gmstrong
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 344
2nd String
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2nd String
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 344 |
Quote:
what would Atlanta be willing to give up. Therefore doesn't need to be "reasonable". We are not the one's proposing the trade.
This is the Key question in any trade. I remember what We gave up to move up 1 spot to get a player that the other team didn't even want (KW2). This still gets my goat at times!  ATL is Close; and they may feel that Green is their missing piece. They may be willing to give up More than normal for that one "homegrown" piece of the puzzle Go Brownies!!!!
Who Let Da Dawgs Out? Woof, Woof, Woof!!!!!
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DawgTalkers.net
Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) Falcons to contact Browns if A.J.
Green falls
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![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/Heldawg/rgiii2.jpg)
