Quote: Right. Cavs have a 22.7 chance of getting the first pick overall (19.9+2.8), a 66% chance of getting a top 3 pick, and can pick no lower than 5th.
%'s don't work like that.
For instance, you can't say if you flip a coin twice you have a 100% chance of getting a heads. You have a 50% chance on the first flip, and a 50% chance on the 2nd flip, but you cannot add those %'s together to combine the odds.
Quote: Right. Cavs have a 22.7 chance of getting the first pick overall (19.9+2.8), a 66% chance of getting a top 3 pick, and can pick no lower than 5th.
%'s don't work like that.
For instance, you can't say if you flip a coin twice you have a 100% chance of getting a heads. You have a 50% chance on the first flip, and a 50% chance on the 2nd flip, but you cannot add those %'s together to combine the odds.
it would be if you were given 1 ticket that said "heads" and another that said "tails"
The percentages don't work that way in this case, though...
I think it's more likely that we get the top two in the order 1) Cavs, 2) Clippers
BECAUSE:
Once a team's name has been picked, it gets removed from the pool.
So if the Cavs have a 19.9% chance of getting picked and the Clips have a 2.8% chance of getting picked then, then the chance we have of getting the first pick is:
19.9% + 2.8%.
However, it matters if the 19.9% is drawn or if the 2.8% is drawn.
If the Cavs' ball is drawn, then we have a
2.8% / (100% - 19.9%) = 3.49% chance of getting the second pick.
If the Clippers pick is first, we have a 19.9% / (100% - 2.8%) = 20.4% chance of getting the second pick.
So to have the 1) Cavs 2) Clippers pulled is: 19.9% * 3.49% = 0.695% chance
But to have the 1) Clippers 2) Cavs pulled is: 2.8% * 20.4% = 0.571% chance
OK, so there's not as big of a difference as i thought.
Quote: Right. Cavs have a 22.7 chance of getting the first pick overall (19.9+2.8), a 66% chance of getting a top 3 pick, and can pick no lower than 5th.
%'s don't work like that.
For instance, you can't say if you flip a coin twice you have a 100% chance of getting a heads. You have a 50% chance on the first flip, and a 50% chance on the 2nd flip, but you cannot add those %'s together to combine the odds.
They do in this type of situation. The Cavs have 199 combinations out of 1000 from finishing 2nd worst. The Cavs also have 28 additional combinations as a result of the Baron Davis trade, for a total of 227 combinations out of 1000, or a .227 chance of one of their combinations being drawn, since each combination has an equal chance of being selected.
The same holds true of the second and third picks. The Cavs' own pick can either be a first, second, third, fourth or fifth. The pick from the Clips can be a first, second, third, eight, ninth, tenth or eleventh. Obviously these aren't weighted evenly.
The Cavs have a 100% chance of getting a draft pick with their own pick. The probability that it is a first is .199, .188 that it is a second and .171 that it is a third. Therefore, the likelihood that it is either a first, second or third pick is the sum of those, or 55.8%. Likewise, the likelihood that the Clippers' pick is a top 3 is 10%. I believe you are correct, though, in saying that I erred in adding those two probabilities together.
Steve, your math is all correct. I wasn't talking about the probability that each of our picks was a top 3 pick though; merely that one of them was. That makes things a bit more complicated, and I don't feel like working it out at the moment.
The coin flip analogy only works if you say it like this: you have a 50% chance of getting heads, and a 50% chance of getting tails, therefore you have a 100% chance of getting heads or tails. As another example, if you have the four aces from a deck of cards and you randomly select one, you have a 50% chance that its going to be red, because there are two red cards, each carrying a 25% probability of being selected.
This season Love blocked only 0.4 shots, you're right. Hickson blocked 0.7 shots. So he's obviously the better shot blocker.
Quote: Love accepted that he is best in the low-post from day1.
Huh? Like I said before Love shot .417% on 211 three point attempts. It's not like he only took one or two shots from out there. Not only is Love better than Hickson outside the post, he is much better.
Quote: while Hickson is still improving and can be a true dominant post player whereas
...
already is? Do people really think Hickson can be a true dominant post player? Like you said Love's ceiling is Zach Randolph (except he already rebounds more and shots from outside better). Isn't Zach Randolph a dominant post player (at least on offense)?
Quote: Just because of where they are at today doesn't mean that's where they will be at tomorrow.
Even if Hickson improves he still won't be as good as Love. And then if he improves again e still won't be as good as Love. And that's assuming Love has reached his ceiling as you have said. But like Hickson he is only 22 years old and is a very hard worker, so I don't think it is fair to assume he won't improve.
On a side note Love's passing is incredible. He's just been on an awful team that doesn't know to/can't utilize his passing skills.
just a couple clarifications as I don't think I explained well enough.
Love accepted that he is best in the low post from day1. Meaning that he is of most value to his team when he spends most of his time there, which he does. Hickson tried to be a stretch-forward, which he is not good at and Byron Scott finally just started taking minutes away to stop it. Once Hickson started playing more in the post, his numbers went up.
Love will always be a below-the-rim player. It's just who he is. Like Zach Randolph he can dominate in the low post scoring (and yes Love is a better rebounder).
Hickson has a higher ceiling (IMO) because he has more athleticism. He could become an Amare Stoudemire. It doesn't mean he will become that good, but the progress he has shown this year has made me think he is going to get closer to his potential than I had thought previously.
Quote: So you would rather have the potential that a player might be a semi-great player like Amar'e Stoudemire over a sure 20/15 every night?
well, since Hickson was at 17/11 after the allstar break, let's not act like he's so much worse right now (also note that Hickson did it in less minutes/game reducing the gap further).
Quote: While his ideal role may still be as a backup 4/5 on a contending team, I am becoming much more comfortable with the idea of having Hickson as the presumptive starting power forward on this team going forward.
Quote: While his ideal role may still be as a backup 4/5 on a contending team, I am becoming much more comfortable with the idea of having Hickson as the presumptive starting power forward on this team going forward.
Kevin Love is a starting 4 on a contending team.
I only provided the link because they provided the stats (#s since allstar break) that I wanted. Not because I agreed with their rhetoric.
if it takes your star player 39 points and some beneficial treatment to get you past an 8 seed, it won't be long until you're on the couch watching the playoffs.
the cavs never played this bad in a first round game as a 1-seed. they played pretty bad last year, but they still took care of business at home, and won in 5.
so tired of hearing about the bulls around here. seriously people think this team is gonna win the championship. i mean lol really? who's your second option after rose? keith bogans at sg? come on man.
They're a more talented version of the 07 Cavs playoff team. They're not winning the chip, but they could make the Finals. I'd take Noah, Deng, Korver and Boozer over '07 Z, Andy, Gooden and Hughes.
Quote: They're a more talented version of the 07 Cavs playoff team. They're not winning the chip, but they could make the Finals. I'd take Noah, Deng, Korver and Boozer over '07 Z, Andy, Gooden and Hughes.
yeah definitely. overall ability they are better, but the '07 cavs were much grittier on defense. they HAD to play in the 60's-low 70's to win.
plus the '07 cavs didn't have to deal with the celtics and to a lesser extent, this heat team.
i know chicago beat them every time this year, but i wouldn't pick chicago if they played miami at any point in the post-season. i'm not high on miami either, but i think they would probably win. i think boston is gettin back to the finals though.
They did have to go through the Pistons, though, at their peak. That Pistons team was every bit as good as the current Celtics and Heat teams even if they weren't star studded (they "only" had Billups, Hamilton and the Wallaces). You don't make six straight ECFs for nothing.
Back to Cavaliers/Draft stuff ...... I think that I am leaning towards Barnes with one of our picks. I like the way he is able to create his own shot. Oddly enough though .... it looks like he struggles a bit in a set catch/shoot situation. He is clutch at the end of games though, and also looks like a really solid defender.
I suspect that we'll grab a PG with our other pick, even though SG is a much, much bigger need. I would suspect that Irving would be the pick if we grab the #1 coming out of the lottery. Irving is a bigger PG with everything a PG needs. He just needs some "finishing", (as damn near any freshman coming to the NBA would, but especially one who missed a bunch of games with injury) and I think that he would get great finishing here with Byron Scott and Baron Davis teaching him the finer points of the game.
I think that we would do quite well both adding talent, and addressing needs if we could get Irving and Barnes.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
He's already said that he will. Scott's even already approached him about coaching once his playing days are done.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
definitely a better point guard. rose is a great scorer. he plays the one well, but yeah cp3 when he's healthy is a better point guard.
that's why i don't get the whole "lebron shoulda gone to chicago" that you hear so much from the media.
lebron would have ruined that team with his game. they'd still be a good team but rose would be useless out there. rose needs the ball. just like lebron needs the ball. just like wade needs the ball.
they're similiar players with lebron obviously being bigger, faster, and stronger.
Baron Davis Just turned 32. How many more years is he going to play? With his knees? 1? Maybe 2?
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
Say what you will about "pre-Cleveland", but I'll never hate on the job he did here and I don't see why anyone would assume it'll change going into next year.
Guy was a consumate professional I thought after the trade.
"If it weren't for my horse, I wouldn't have spent that year in college" GO ROCKETS
Quote: Say what you will about "pre-Cleveland", but I'll never hate on the job he did here and I don't see why anyone would assume it'll change going into next year.
Guy was a consumate professional I thought after the trade.
he's always going to have a soft spot for cleveland from now until the end of time. he played on one leg and helped the cavs beat miami.
i do think he is an important piece to the cavs' future though. either by use of trade, or if he somehow revives his career. i think he could still be a really solid 6th man, but he has to accept that first.
he has been a great person around the cleveland area though. if you follow him on twitter, he's been giving the city a lot of love in what has been a tough year for him outside of basketball, and on the court.
when is the lotto? it's usually during the conference finals right? i know i won't be missing that.
speaking of the lotto, i think the league could go one step further, and let the fans follow it a little closer, do the actual process live on tv instead of in some back room, it would be fun as a fan to follow it as it happens, as well as help squash a lot of people's theories that the league is rigged.
i don't think the league is rigged. i think donaghy acted on his own. i do think it's possible that another ref could be influencing the outcome of games on their own but i have no proof to back it up. I think as a whole, the league is not fixed. but i can't blame people for thinking it is.
and this lockout issue couldn't have come at a worse time. the decision was bad pub. the carmelo saga was bad pub. the backlash that followed carmelo was bad pub. where people started to assume this will be a league dictated by the large markets aka baseball. then you get a great weekend of first round games (which are never good) and you just have this whole lockout thing looming in the backround.
i figured him going back though. still sucks for both the lotto picks we have. he could have been a very possible second option if irving was gone, and he pushes the talent ahead for that clippers pick. yuck.
there's always the chance that there is some unsung guy in the 5-20th pick range that turns out to be a star. there isn't one evey year, but if there is, i think grant can find him.
Bit surprising about Barnes as I thought he'd be a top 3 pick.
Wondering what you guys think about Derrick Williams. I've read comparisions of him to Beasley and Carl Landry. Saw that some scouts have said that Williams is a "tweener" he doesnt have the speed or jumper to be a true 3 in the NBA. Hes not big enough to be a true 4. This worries me a little bit.
"The medium for the bad news was ESPN, which figured. The network represents much of what is loud, obnoxious and empty in sports today."
Quote: Bit surprising about Barnes as I thought he'd be a top 3 pick.
Wondering what you guys think about Derrick Williams. I've read comparisions of him to Beasley and Carl Landry. Saw that some scouts have said that Williams is a "tweener" he doesnt have the speed or jumper to be a true 3 in the NBA. Hes not big enough to be a true 4. This worries me a little bit.
they might have no choice but to take him if things don't fall their way.
I hate that Barnes went back to school. Is that final, or could he change his mind later if he wanted to?
Man, I almost think that we should hope for a pick that gets us either Irving or Walker ..... and then maybe look at a guy like Marcus Morris or Terrance Jones at SF with our 2nd 1st rounder.
I woudl then hope for maybe a big we could stash overseas and a SG in the 2nd round.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
if his feet are 'quick' enough to play SF, then he could be a Paul Pierce type. but, as you mentioned, there are serious questions about whether he can be.
if not, then he's stuck as a more physical version of Rashard Lewis (when he was decent). that's not bad, but that's not top2 pick in the draft potential (obviously).
his jumper isn't quick-release, but it's dang good. he's been good at 3's and long-2's in Zona. he has to get a quicker release but most college players need to work on that because they have so much longer to get shots off in college (some guys like Barnes and JJ Redick have a natural quick release).
