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So Colt McCoy has played a full NFL season. Let's take a look at how he's done:
5-11 record, 58.9% completion rate, 312 completions, 530 attempts, 3340 yards, 16 TD's, 15 INT's, 208 yards per game, 75.7 QB rating.
For a reference point let's look at Peyton Manning's first 16 games:
3-13 record, 56.7% completion rate, 326 completions, 575 attempts, 3739 yards, 26 TD's, 28 INT's, 233 yards per game, 71.2 rating.
McCoy's numbers are not that much different than Manning's numbers. Manning did throw for many more TD's, but he also threw for many INT's. Some would probably say that is due to Manning attempting to throw downfield more. Well McCoy has thrown for 6.3 yards per attempt. Manning threw for 6.5 yards per attempt. McCoy has even thrown for more yards per completion (11.7) than Manning (11.5).
So why do we view McCoy as an absolute failure with no chance at future success and Manning was still viewed as a future franchise QB?
I think it is because we don't think McCoy can physically make the throws necessary to be successful in the NFL. I thought we would see that in his yards per attempt statistic, but he had the almost the same yards per completion as Manning.
I've gotten to the point where I don't think that McCoy has any future as a starter in the league. But I am willing to give him the rest of the season. The problem is that he is getting worse with the more experience he gains, which is the opposite of what happened to Manning. Does this mean defenses are beginning to figure out what he can/can't do? Is our new coaching staff holding him back? I don't know.
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Seems like they let Peyton kinda do his thing, with the high TD high INT numbers.
I think Colt has always been kind of handcuffed. Both coaches really haven't let him do a whole lot, at least it seems that way.
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Or perhaps a combination of
1) A terrible head coach/offensive coordinator
2) An OL that is a sieve.
3) No legitimate NFL caliber receivers
4) No running game to speak of
5) A QB who gets more skittish with every early hit, WR running wrong route, idiotic play call, instantly collapsing pocket (there were too many times to count yesterday where the pocket was gone before McCoy even completed his 5 or 7 step drop).
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Great quote in the Beacon Journal today about how Shurmur won't let Colt operate out of the shotgun because it doesn't fit with the version of the WCO he wants to run.
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This is something I was worried about when we hired Shurmur.
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Quote:
This is something I was worried about when we hired Shurmur.
Well, really only something to worry about if Colt is going to be our QB of the future. If Shurmur expects a certain type of QB and he's going to be our coach, then we're going to be bringing in a QB who fits that mold.
I am unfamiliar with this feeling of optimism
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If that is true, that worries me. You should play to the strenght of your players, not try to bang a square peg into a round hole 
#gmstrong
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Quote:
Great quote in the Beacon Journal today about how Shurmur won't let Colt operate out of the shotgun because it doesn't fit with the version of the WCO he wants to run.
but doesn't there come a point when you realize you can do what you want with this system and current personnel, and still are going to get minimal results? Why not adapt? What are they getting out of banging out these same plays?
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Just to be clear, here's the quote from the Beacon. It's the writer saying this, not a quote from the coaching staff or anything. Quote:
In the Browns’ front office, there might be doubts on whether McCoy is the quarterback of the future. His career record is 5-11 and sinking fast, thanks to the Browns’ approach to this season.
They seem so hell-bent on finding out whether McCoy can operate the West Coast offense that they refuse to let him operate out of the shotgun, the formation in which he excelled at Texas, perhaps in part because it helped him see the field. Instead of featuring what their players do best, they appear intent on weeding out those who don’t, even if their quarterback has to limp to the bus every Sunday because of it.
link
So, I haven't seen anything that says that the coaches are saying they refuse to let him work out of the shotgun, though the proof is kind of in the pudding on that one. As in, they don't have to say it because it's obvious.
I am unfamiliar with this feeling of optimism
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I remember hearing, back when Holmgren was coaching, there were three coaches who rarely ran the shotgun. Holmgren, Gruden, and Reid. Reid has adjusted because he has Vick. Gruden never got a good QB in Tampa Bay. Holmgren was successful in Seattle with Hasselbeck.
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Manning started off his career with 3 TDs and 11 INT in his 1st 4 games. He improved greatly from there.
McCoy is heading in the opposite direction. Instead of improving, he is regressing.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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he is regressing in YPA under the WCO. but he is throwing less INTs and more TDs
2010 6TDs 9INts in 8 games
2011 10TDs 6INTs in 8 games
Yes, more attempts to get those TDs, but that also means more attempts and still less INTs.
The biggest worry is that despite getting less YPA, he is also getting less completion %. He really should have gone up a bit on that and we have all seen him miss on some of the rather open underneath throws.
But, I would not say he has regressed this year (better record, more yards, more TDs, less INTs, higher QB rating, less sacks).
The offense looks worse because we have absolutely no run game.
#gmstrong
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Would you say that it was a clear to them that McCoy would struggle being under center when he was coming out of Texas?
Why on earth would Mike Holmgren take a guy who can't run his offense?
Was it a gray area?
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i dont' think that was a reply to me, but I think w/ how many QBs in college run the spread that you almost have to pick a QB who runs mostly out of shotgun.
this is actually a strange year where 2 of the top guys do take snaps under center more often than most teams (Barkely and Luck).
so, you have to trust that your coaches can teach the footwork and that a guy can learn it.
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Quote:
Manning started off his career with 3 TDs and 11 INT in his 1st 4 games. He improved greatly from there.
McCoy is heading in the opposite direction. Instead of improving, he is regressing.
If Manning was a Brown, how quickly do you think posters on this board would be calling for him to be benched?
Not trying to make a comparison between the two, don't get me wrong.
I want the Cleveland Browns to be my pallbearers so they can let me down for the last time.
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Oh my,, Ytown is gonna be all over your butt in 10, 9, 8, 7,  I tried making a similar point, but what I did was look at McCoy so far this year (it was two games ago so it may not be valid now) and take those stats out for the whole year. The number were close in most respects.. Colt had fewer TD's than Manning, but he also had WAY WAY fewer INT's than manning also. There was a pretty big difference in yards passed for also... I think it was manning by 3 or 400 yards. Beyond that, thier stats were similar. But for some folks, there is always something wrong with that kinda thinking because it doesn't show that McCoy is a waste product.  Fact is, it doesn't matter anyway. none of it does. If Stats told the whole story, Marino would have about 12 Superbowl rings..
Last edited by Damanshot; 11/07/11 03:41 PM.
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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and if you think Peyton started off poorly, you should take a look at Eli's numbers
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Come on guys, stats are truly for LOSERS.
What do your eyes tell you?
To even mention Manning and McCoy in the same sentence is downright laughable ... possibly criminal. Apples and whatever the hell is as far away from apples as possible.
Every year it's the same story on this board. Fall in love with a player and find whatever angle you can to determine why the player sucks except the answer that's staring you right in the face. Well guess what? Sometimes they just suck. That's the answer. Skill rises to the top. You'd be able to see it even if Shurmur is an idiot or holding him back or whatever. You'd still be able to tell there was something there.
Man, this season cannot get over with fast enough.
LOL - The Rish will be upset with this news as well. KS just doesn't prioritize winning...
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Eli has been impressive this year. Great play with 15 ticks left yesterday.
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Eli has been impressive this year. Great play with 15 ticks left yesterday.
yeah, he's played better this year. my point was he started off horribly. wretchedly historically bad.
he had that one hot stretch from end of November to the Superbowl run and then outside of that he's had a few games here and a few games there where he has been really good too.
this year he's played much more consistently, which is why the Giants are in 1st place despite the injury issues they have had (on defense, WRs, RBs, etc).
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Watching Colt yesterday kept reminding me of Bubby Brister. He was a smallish, tough qb that kept getting up after being pummelled game after game. Even though Brister's skillset would be an improvement over what we have now, is that really what we want here? Although Brister had a stronger arm, I see a lot of similarities. I think Brister is Colt's upside.
And into the forest I go, to lose my mind and find my soul.
- John Muir
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I really dislike comparisons like this, but if you're going to do it, get rid of garbage time stat-padding and adjust for different time periods. In saying that, I am specifically thinking to the middle of last decade when Polian used his spot on the competition committee to get refs to really hammer down on defensive holding.
Besides, how well did Peyton do in his 2nd year and was there ever any doubt that he could throw a football well?
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Quote:
Would you say that it was a clear to them that McCoy would struggle being under center when he was coming out of Texas?
Why on earth would Mike Holmgren take a guy who can't run his offense?
Was it a gray area?
Holmgren waited until the end of the 3rd round to Draft a player whom he never wanted to play last season and perhaps if he had not, then he might not have gotten the nod to start this year with no off season.
I think that he knew full well that Colt had some learning to do.
Just learning his drops from under center is a big step for these guys who never or rarely did it in College.
Things don't always go according to plans.
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Interesting stat:
"2011 is the first season in which the NFL is running more than 40 percent shotgun overall, and the Packers are running shotgun 51.9 percent of the time this season — that's sixth-most in the league, per Football Outsiders. Behind Rodgers in the Pantheon of shotgun quarterbacks is Eli Manning (108.7, 39.0 percent shotgun), Tom Brady (107.5, 47.8 percent shotgun), Drew Brees (106.3, 40.4 percent shotgun) and Matt Hasselbeck (106.1, 35.2 percent shotgun)."
I couldn't find out what our shotgun percentage is (it is obviously pretty low), but it is interesting how the good QB's seem to operate out of shotgun a lot and how Shurmur hates it.
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Colt isn't Manning and he's not going to be, they are pretty different... and Manning is one of the greatest QBs of all time.
With that said, they named him the starter but have done nothing to play to his strengths to help him succeed.
yebat' Putin
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Quote:
Interesting stat:
"2011 is the first season in which the NFL is running more than 40 percent shotgun overall, and the Packers are running shotgun 51.9 percent of the time this season — that's sixth-most in the league, per Football Outsiders. Behind Rodgers in the Pantheon of shotgun quarterbacks is Eli Manning (108.7, 39.0 percent shotgun), Tom Brady (107.5, 47.8 percent shotgun), Drew Brees (106.3, 40.4 percent shotgun) and Matt Hasselbeck (106.1, 35.2 percent shotgun)."
I couldn't find out what our shotgun percentage is (it is obviously pretty low), but it is interesting how the good QB's seem to operate out of shotgun a lot and how Shurmur hates it.
I just hope that he is flexible, because he will need to be in his Coaching maturation.
As a side note I think it was in one of the late games, someone was stating that many defenses are defending the pass first and that's why we see so many long runs this year, but even the Steelers have been a pass first team and only run occasionally.
Even though they can run the ball when they need to.
The current rules favor the passing game, so if you have a good passing attack then you should use it, shotgun or otherwise.
If Hillis played yesterday we might have seen them put 8 in the box to try and stop the running game, but without a running threat to speak of, the only time they dropped 8 into the box was to blitz Colt.
I think I can only recall one sack on Colt that wasn't a blitz.
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I swear to God, the next time we compare numbers of (insert HOF QB here) to (insert struggling young QB here), I am going to throw up.
McCoy has been unimpressive and is not showing growth. No matter what is going on around him, I do not see an NFL QB. If he cannot throw a WR open, or he cannot change the play/protection, or he cannot clean up his own footwork, that's his problem.
Instead of blaming 4000 different things going on around him, time to blame him. No QB, outside of Aaron Rodgers, gets perfect protection and WR'ers open all the time. Yet they still make plays.
Excuse time is over. Improvement or get him the hell out of here. He still gets till the end of the season because we aren't going anywhere anyway, may as well confirm what has been shown so far.
you had a good run Hank.
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The next time I hear somebody say that I expect Colt to have perfect protection to make a play I think I'm going to throw up.
His longest completion of the day was thrown as an unblocked defender planted his helmet under Colt's chin and slammed him to the turf about 2 seconds after the snap. You can do that once in a while but you cannot make a living that way.
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Quote:
The next time I hear somebody say that I expect Colt to have perfect protection to make a play I think I'm going to throw up.
His longest completion of the day was thrown as an unblocked defender planted his helmet under Colt's chin and slammed him to the turf about 2 seconds after the snap. You can do that once in a while but you cannot make a living that way.
The only consistent thing I have heard from Browns fans all year is how we cannot evaluate Colt McCoy because he is getting hit too much. Players get hit all the time and make plays. Just like you said, McCoy did it once.
My problem is that he is letting it get in his head. And he isn't getting hit that much. The last game, he was getting planted, but that was the first game I though he didn't have much time. I think it's mostly his own fault for getting hit, as he is holding the ball too long.
you had a good run Hank.
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Quote:
Manning started off his career with 3 TDs and 11 INT in his 1st 4 games. He improved greatly from there.
McCoy is heading in the opposite direction. Instead of improving, he is regressing.
Right. This is what I said in the original post, "The problem is that he is getting worse with the more experience he gains, which is the opposite of what happened to Manning. Does this mean defenses are beginning to figure out what he can/can't do? Is our new coaching staff holding him back? I don't know."
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Quote:
I swear to God, the next time we compare numbers of (insert HOF QB here) to (insert struggling young QB here), I am going to throw up.
McCoy has been unimpressive and is not showing growth. No matter what is going on around him, I do not see an NFL QB. If he cannot throw a WR open, or he cannot change the play/protection, or he cannot clean up his own footwork, that's his problem.
Instead of blaming 4000 different things going on around him, time to blame him. No QB, outside of Aaron Rodgers, gets perfect protection and WR'ers open all the time. Yet they still make plays.
Excuse time is over. Improvement or get him the hell out of here. He still gets till the end of the season because we aren't going anywhere anyway, may as well confirm what has been shown so far.
Your post makes no sense ... Why would someone use a QB who failed to make it stats vs Colts? What would that prove?
That he is better then a nobody.
And excuse time might be over to you, but 'reasons' why are not excuses ... They are the reality.
Does Colt need to show improvement?
Yes and I am not arguing that point, but let's let him finish out the year before we kick him to the curb.
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To even mention Manning and McCoy in the same sentence is downright laughable ... possibly criminal. Apples and whatever the hell is as far away from apples as possible.
No one is saying the McCoy will become Manning. But you do have to admit that the numbers I've posted above are very similar, which makes me curious as to why some people think he can never succeed.
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What do your eyes tell you?
What would your eyes tell you if you only watched Drew Brees for his first sixteen games?
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Right. This is what I said in the original post, "The problem is that he is getting worse with the more experience he gains, which is the opposite of what happened to Manning. Does this mean defenses are beginning to figure out what he can/can't do? Is our new coaching staff holding him back? I don't know."
Ok, let's look at a few of the differences between Manning when he started and McCoy when he started...
Let's start with Manning, who had Tom Moore as his OC, who had been a long time QB coach and offensive coordinator under Chuck Noll.. had a couple SB rings (not as OC but on the staff), regularly had offenses ranked in the top half of the NFL, then went on to coach several other places in the NFL and had success, as an OC, before joining the Colts.
Now he had pro-bowl running back Marshall Faulk in his backfield who had rushed for over 1000 yards in 4 of the 5 years he was with the Colts before Manning got there.. and he was in his prime. He had Marvin Harrison who was in his 3rd year and a rising threat at WR...
McCoy has a coach with 2 years as OC with minimal success, no running back threats this year and the closest thing he has to Marvin Harrison is a raw rookie in Greg Little..
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Just to add .........
McCoy has had how many absolutely meaningless TDs late in lost games?
I can think of the 49'ers, Texans, and Oakland.off the top of my head. He also helped his stats in the Titans game after it was decided.
Not to mention that if the officials hadn't dreamed up an invisible block in the back, we would have lost the Seattle game as well.
Absolutely meaningless and worthless drives .. except that they propped up stats, and added a few meaningless TDs that could in no way affect the outcome of the game.
How many times do we see a backup QB come into a lost game, and people go nuts over his performance? The pressure is off, the defense has gone to sleep. No one really cares all that much if the team scores at that point because the game is, for all intend and purpose, over.
This is what McCoy has done in those games. He stunk ... flat out and unmistakably stunk until that wonderful last, meaningless drive. I wonder what his stats would look like without those drives, where the defense just backed off in order to get the game over with?
Look at the Oakland game. They are up by 2 TDs with a few minutes to play. McCoy drives the team down the field ...... in his final 2 drives (the TD and the drive following the onside kick) and he goes 10-15 for 101 yards on those 2 drives.
The rest of the game, while the outcome was in question, he went 11-30 for 117 yards. Yippee.
Look at the 49'ers game.
With 8:41 left in the game, and the score 20-3, McCoy began an "epic" drive.
His stats on the final 2 drives were this:
4-6 for 75 yards TD to bring the score to 20-10 with 2 minutes left.
Final drive 3-4 for 34 yards, with a fumble and a defensive penalty.
He went 22-34 for 241 with 1 TD and 1 INT for the game.
That means that, while the game was in any doubt at all, he went 15-24 for 132 yards and 1 INT. Pardon me if I am unimpressed.
Then we have the Texans game. It's 30-6 as we take over with 10:28 left in the 4th quarter.
We go on a 5 1/2 minute TD drive that probably made the Texans happy as it used up over half the remaining clock.
He went 6-7 for 60 yards and a TD on that drive. That brought the score to 30-12 with 5 minutes left. Yawn.
The rest of the game, McCoy went 8-15 for 86 yards with an INT.
McCoy does really well when the game is lost. He piles up stats ..... scores TDs ..... but only when the game is out of reach.
We have beaten 3 teams with McCoy this year ..... Indy, Miami, and Seattle. Those teams are a combined 3-22 on the year. Hardly beating the best the league has to offer. These teams are 18th, 24th, and 26th in passing defense for the year.
Pardon me if I don't get excited when I take the whole picture into account.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Quote:
Quote:
Manning started off his career with 3 TDs and 11 INT in his 1st 4 games. He improved greatly from there.
McCoy is heading in the opposite direction. Instead of improving, he is regressing.
Right. This is what I said in the original post, "The problem is that he is getting worse with the more experience he gains, which is the opposite of what happened to Manning. Does this mean defenses are beginning to figure out what he can/can't do? Is our new coaching staff holding him back? I don't know."
Since the regression already started last season, the former is more probable...remember the Jets game? They never blitzed, thinking the rook will eventually make a mistake...DCs have learned from that and are bringing the house since then...an he's toast since then
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Quote:
Quote:
Manning started off his career with 3 TDs and 11 INT in his 1st 4 games. He improved greatly from there.
McCoy is heading in the opposite direction. Instead of improving, he is regressing.
Right. This is what I said in the original post, "The problem is that he is getting worse with the more experience he gains, which is the opposite of what happened to Manning. Does this mean defenses are beginning to figure out what he can/can't do? Is our new coaching staff holding him back? I don't know."
Defenses are pressuring like crazy .... in fact, the sell out to put pressure on McCoy ...... so I'd say that they have figured out what stops him.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Hall of Famer
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 8,660 |
Since you are mico managing the stats ... In all fairness you would have to know how many of Manning's TD's/ yards where in garbage time, because they all get garbage time stats if that's what you want to call it.
To me it's all inclusive at the end of the day/year/career.
It's part of most every game that does not go down to the wire.
With that said ... Stats alone will never tell the whole story.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,333
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,333 |
You can't compare mannings first 16 to Colts....this is football and QB is ONE position. You would have to compare each spot on the team to then colts team to make a fair justification.
Not a great comparsion IMO..Nice try tho...if u really just take the stats as they are tho, how he does after 16 games will be more important. And like some on here have mentioned Colt seems to be going in the wrong direction the longer he is under center while manning got better slowly.
PS- All that being said the kid has already played under 2 different coaching staffs....we need to give him some playmakers next year and see how he progresses. The next years 16 will be the true test i think depending on how our running game is and how we play as a team overall.
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DawgTalkers.net
Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Colt McCoy after 16 games
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