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I've been keeping my own tracker and looked at the schedules for each of the remaining teams that probably won't make the playoffs. Doing some predicting, I see the Browns getting the 7th pick and a pick somewhere in the 20-26 range.
How I got there? Browns win 1 more game (Jags) and lose out the remainder of the season. Atlanta wins 6 of 7 (looking at schedule it is fairly realistic).
Picking ahead of the Browns:
(1) Indy - 0 wins
(2) Washington - 3 wins (loses out)
(3) Carolina - 3 wins (wins 1 more)
(4) Miami - 3 wins (wins 1 more)
(5) St. Louis - 3 wins (wins 1 more)
(6) Jacksonville - 4 wins (wins 1 more and has lower SOS)
Based on this, if Jones, Barkley, and Luck are as advertised, they'll all be gone by 4. I see Justin Blackmon and Matt Kalil going to combination of Carolina, St Louis, and Jacksonville
That leaves......
Trent Richardson (RB - need)
Morris Claiborne (CB - need)
Quinton Coples (DE - need, but not typical DE size that Heckert drafts)
Jonathan Martin (OT - need - move to RT?)
Vontaze Burfict (LB - need...at 7??)
Riley Reiff (OT - need - move to RT?)
Alshon Jeffrey (WR - need, big target but he worries me)
In this scenario, I'd probably go Richardson or one of the OT's and come back in the late teens/early 20's and grab whatever I didn't draft at 7 or CB, G, WR.
The draft appears deep at LB so I'd wait to grab one in the 2nd round
I'm coming home, I'm coming home, tell the world I'm coming home
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In that scenario, you take Claiborne and never look back...
#7 on a RT? No thanks...
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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Yea grabbing a rt at the later first I'd be OK with but if we get someone similar to Joe... that sounds cool ;-)
#gmstrong
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Rookie
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Quote:
There is a reason the phrase :Stats are for losers" keeps coming up. QB keeps hitting the receivers in the hands and they keep dropping them, stats tend to get skewed a bit. Just like Dalton keeps making horrible throws and Green makes the great play to bail him out. Woo hoo Dalton is Great we should have drafted Dalton lol
Dalton in my opinion is the best QB in the AFC north, the guy can flat out make plays, ya he uses green to bail him out at times, butttt who doesn't use there number 1 wr to bail them out, just ask Stafford, Moore, Sanchize(when he had edwards) and even ryan fitz with stevie johnson. Dalton was a steal for the bengals and im kinda worried seeing him for the next 10 years
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Legend
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What is Dalton better at than Big Ben?
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Quote:
I see a good QB. I don't see the best QB since Elway/Manning. Not even close.
I'd love to get some tape on old Elway/Manning college games.
That's the thing...And I see u elaborated on it in a later post...
You've gotta be old enuff and have watched college football 15-20 years ago to have actually seen an Elway/Manning season...I remember both pretty clearly and Luck is right there if not a BETTER prospect than both of em'...
Go Browns!!!
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If for whatever reason we don't go QB in the 1st I'd draft 1 of Blackmon, Kirkpatrick or Claiborne
If we're DUMB enuff to think we can bypass an available QB the likes of Luck or Barkley...And get one later as in 2013...You're looking at picking 12 or later and ending up with a Ponder/Locker type...BOTH of whom were nowhere near worthy of Top 12 picks in ANY draft...Chalk that up to the Premium teams put on QB's...
If we don't get a QB and stick at our spot...I take BLACKMON all day...Some receivers u can just tell are stud quality sure-fire...He's one of em'...This dude looks so much like a cross between Calvin & Andre Johnson it ain't even funny...
QB or Blackmon in the top 5...Claiborne if he's there at 7ish...
I then go Burfict with the Atlanta pick...
Any way u cut it we end up with TWO STUDS or a Potential STUD QB...
Go Browns!!!
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IMO, Luck is awesome. I wasn't as high on him as others were prior to the start of the season, but he has progressed. His arm strength has improved, and he has become more accurate as well. He's the best QB I've ever scouted, (going back to like '08 here, so not saying a ton) with only Bradford near his level.
He he he...
2012 NFL Mock Draft Weekly Update #9
by Chris Ransom
B) If the Colts deal this pick and keep Peyton Manning then the Cleveland Browns will be the frontrunner to land Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck’s dad Oliver Luck played high school football in Cleveland.
The Browns have the King’s Ransom of picks that the Colts would demand for Luck. Cleveland could offer both of their 2012 first rounders, a 2013 first rounder, a 2012 2nd rounder, and a 2013 2nd rounder or Colt McCoy as a successor to Peyton Manning down the road.
Adam Schefter stated on Sunday NFL Countdown that the team trading for Luck would have to offer 3 1st round picks and 2 2nd round picks for Luck. The only teams with the luxury of executing this trade are the Cleveland Browns, the Cincinnati Bengals, and the New England Patriots. These 3 teams have 2 2012 first round picks and a 3rd 2013 first round pick that they could use if they wanted to deal the pick to move up.
Cincinnati has Andy Dalton and New England probably would not give up on Ryan Mallett after one year or draft a quarterback of Luck’s caliber to sit behind Brady for 3 years. Luck will have some leverage if a team deals the pick and multiple teams want him. By process of elimination this means that the Cleveland Browns would be the only team who would have the ammunition trade up for Andrew Luck.
Go Browns!!!
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I guarantee ya' these guys were looking into this draft when that trade with Atlanta went down...A responsible FO with a CLUE woulda been...
U do not put your entire tenure as a GM or President on the line with fully going forward with a 3rd round QB...That's stupidity at its best...
It won't take nearly that much to get Luck from Indy...Not if we're in the Top 3 or 4...
HOPE Indy really likes Jones and that arm for that Vertical Offense...They give us Luck and end up with those picks and take Jones where we were...He sits behind Manning for a year and there ya' go...
Anyone who thinks 3 First Rounders and possibly another pick or 2 is NOT worth a QB the caliber of Luck is stuck in the mindset that a 6th Round Brady grows on trees...WE NEED A DAMN QB...McCoy is physically limited and that will NEVER change...
We are set up PERFECTLY to make this type of splash...ALL of our high dollar OLD players are history and off the cap...The 2nd most important position on any team is LOCKED-UP for years in Thomas...We've got numerous youth players that will form the foundation of this team going forward...Taylor/Rubin/Haden/Ward/Sheard/Pinkston/ Mack/Thomas/Little...ALL of whom other than Thomas are CAP friendly...
We can make up for the lost picks by selectively hitting Free Agency for 4 year players hitting there PRIME...This is where Heckert's gonna earn his bucks...And top it off with that 1 or 2 player MAJOR FA hit...
We do this and we will be a perenial playoff contender consistently...BECAUSE WE HAVE THE DAMN QB WE'VE NEEDED SINCE KOSAR!!!!!!!!!!!
Do whatever it takes to land LUCK...BARKLEY's a consolation prize...
This is the year to be playing for draft positioning...The QB we need is within reach...
Go Browns!!!
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Legend
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Mannings biggest knock in college was that he was Floridas whipping boy
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Don't kid yourself on what it will take for Luck....the three 1st rounders for sure and probably at least one of the 2nd rounders.
Hopefully we can make it next years 2nd rounder...I'd like to invest in the Luck pick with another solid linemen as a follow-up pick this year.
Just go in to next years draft knowing you aren't picking until round 3.
I don't like years without picks at the top, but to offset that a bit, you go hard and heavy in FA and look to add a couple of players who can step in and give you 3-4 solid seasons.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
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Just to follow up with a thought, I could see us giving up the 2nd this year as well and going the FA route the next two seasons.
I think these guys know we need to start winning NOW, and next season is everybodys NOW.
I don't think it has to be 8-9 wins, but they better post up 6-7 wins, and maybe giving up the picks for a top QB prospect, then spending some cash on a few veteran free agents is the best way to get there in the short term.....and IMO those guys better be thinking about the short term because I don't think they have a long term unless things make a change.
Playing the FA market isn't a good way to build a team no doubt, but it does help really good teams possible jump the hump and it can help really bad teams start winning some match-ups on the field.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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That sounds gooood  Both 2012 1sts + 1st and 2nd 2013 + McCoy is getting close to the max I'd pay to get Luck we would "only" dip into the 2013 class as we still have all 2012 picks Imagine a draft like 1 QB Luck 2 WR D.Jones or WR K.Wright 3 DE Curry or DE Branch or OT Adcock 4a WR J.Wright or RB C.Gray 4b CB Hayward 5 CB/FS Golden or G/T Zusevics 6a DT Harrell or OT Allen 6b OLB Brown or OLB Kaddu
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
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It depends on where we are drafting. If we lose out the rest of the year and end up picking 3rd there is no way I give up that high of a pick plus the other ransom of picks to move up two slots to get Luck.
Especially if there is any inkling that the Colts like Jones. At that point Heckert needs to earn his chips and give up only our 1st #1 (#3 overall) our 2nd and 2013 second rounder. Other wise you tell Indy no thanks we will take the BPA at #3.
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Quote:
Quote:
j/c
I'm on the Justin Blackmon bandwagon big time. I'm not as in love with the QBs in this class as some of you are (though several of them look like they're going to be very good). But, I just see Blackmon as a surefire stud.
JMHO
Not sure if we are the only two, but I'm on that bandwagon as well, in large part because I see us getting the 3rd or 4th QB in the draft and that's not good enough.
I think I have been on that bus for over a year now.
The Rams are a team that could also be looking at Blackmon ... If they Draft ahead of us it could be the end to that pipe dream. For us 
And I don't normally like to pick WR's so high either, but I think that this youngster is a pretty special talent.
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Quote:
Both 2012 1sts + 1st and 2nd 2013 + McCoy is getting close to the max I'd pay to get Luck
If Indy should decide to trade out of the #1 spot (I don't see why they would - if I am them I take Luck) and we decide that we want to trade up for Luck, I really don't see why we would have to pay that much. Who can create a better package than our 2 1st this year and our 1st next year? A top 5 pick and a pick between 15-25 this year along with an anticipated top 5 pick next season. So why throw in the extra 2nd there Butch? 
Adding McCoy, does this really add any value to the trade?
Don't blame the clown for acting like a clown.
Ask yourself why you keep going to the circus.
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I would like to see McCoy stay if we get another QB. Guy works his rear end off. He will push for that spot, and I think he'll be a good soldier about it.
I think it would be healthy for an incoming rookie QB to have a guy like that around.
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Yeah, I don't see a way he falls past the Rams (if they're picking ahead of us). That would mean us trading to get ahead of them, and I don't think we'll pay that steep price. Heck, I don't think we're going to do it for a QB, so I really don't think we'd do it for a WR.
I am unfamiliar with this feeling of optimism
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Legend
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The Rams still have 2 with the Seahawks, home against Arizona, and their last game is home against the 49ers who, oddly enough, might be resting people by then. I could see them winning at least 2 if not 3 more games.
yebat' Putin
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Quote:
The Rams still have 2 with the Seahawks, home against Arizona, and their last game is home against the 49ers who, oddly enough, might be resting people by then. I could see them winning at least 2 if not 3 more games.
I was looking at their schedule too.
The rest of the season, they have got the easier schedule as compared to us, but they still have one less win at this point. Seattle seems to be a team on the rise (albeit only in the perspective of how they began the season). The Rams only lost to Arizona in zona, by like 3 or 4 points, so I think that they are pretty evenly matched. I'll keep an eye on how things shake out for them, but there is still the Panthers with but two wins to consider. I think that they could also snag him up if picking ahead of us.
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Quote:
Quote:
Both 2012 1sts + 1st and 2nd 2013 + McCoy is getting close to the max I'd pay to get Luck
If Indy should decide to trade out of the #1 spot (I don't see why they would - if I am them I take Luck) and we decide that we want to trade up for Luck, I really don't see why we would have to pay that much. Who can create a better package than our 2 1st this year and our 1st next year? A top 5 pick and a pick between 15-25 this year along with an anticipated top 5 pick next season. So why throw in the extra 2nd there Butch?
Adding McCoy, does this really add any value to the trade?
1. Because other teams like the Dolphins, Seahawks, Redskins will put together a package close to that...we can offer the most value picks in 2012, so that gives us a leg up and probabyl will be a tie breaker as the Colts will be looking for immediate draft help since Peyton isn't getting younger....so all those extra picks I think will be needed just to outbid other competitors for Luck
2. The moment you draft Luck you have to get rid of McCoy imho....I'd like to keep him as the backup as I think he's a decent one to have (backup game managers, who don't lose games are ok, not as starters though)...BUT, the FO made the mistake to talking him up "being our guy" when he was named the undisputed starter for this season....anytime you do this to a 2nd year guy, he thinks himself as a starter in this league...and there's no point to keep him around once you have invested this much in Luck....everyone knows who the franchise will be going with and I doubt he's going to be a "good soldier" about it....could just become a locker room problem if there are still guys believing in Colt (severly doubt it just watching their body language though)...and if no one really cares it's not really a good match if he is forced to take the field again either....I see no fit after a move like that...if not included in the package, you look to sell Colt asap...I'd take anything 4th or better for 2012 (doubt it though because on draft weekend GMs overvalue every pick)....my play would be to keep him around and trade him in preseason once a starter goes down somewhere...you'll easily get a 4th if not better then
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
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I like Luck, he's certainly the best QB in this draft and a clear number 1 pick.
But there's no way I'm trading 3 1st round draft picks for him (or any player for that matter). Give me Matt Barkley + Alshon Jeffery + my 2013 first round pick any day.
How many times has the "shoot the moon" trade really worked out for the team giving up picks? Even when the player has been great (Ricky Williams / Hershel Walker the team has never made it up.
The chargers clearly won the Rivers for Manning trade.
The chargers clearly won the Vick for Tomlinson Trade
The Falcons clearly won the Jeff George Trade.
~Lyuokdea
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I agree with you that if we draft a Qb in the top 5 (especially if we trade up for him) that McCoy will need to go. Though I think you are over-estimating the value we would get in return. As for: Quote:
Because other teams like the Dolphins, Seahawks, Redskins will put together a package close to that.
Any of them can offer a package of their 2012 1st and 2nd and their 2013 1st and 2nd. Would you take that over our two 1st round picks this year and our #1 next? Only if Atlanta makes and goes deep into the playoffs.
As an aside - I would prefer Landry Jones and the rest of our picks to trading up for Luck (and I am a huge Luck fan). I also prefer Jones over Barkley. All other things being equal I like Weeden on par with Jones. Possibly even as the #2 overall player in this draft. But all other things are not equal. His age wouldn't be a huge factor for a team that may be 2-3 yrs out and is looking to draft a Qb to mature over 2-3 years. We are not in that position. As much as I hate to say it, but I think we are 4-5 years away from being a perennial playoff team with hopes of making a championship run. And that is if we we draft strong. Hopefully it won't take that long for us to be competitive.
Ideally we sign a guy like Flynn and hit the jackpot with that signing (that is my ideal, I haven't seen enough of Flynn to render an opinion on him) then draft Blackmon or Richardson. Mix in a playmaking LB and another playmaker on offense or a RT and we are moving in the right diraction.
Don't blame the clown for acting like a clown.
Ask yourself why you keep going to the circus.
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Dawg Talker
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Quote:
The chargers clearly won the Rivers for Manning trade.
Not sure I agree there. The Giants won a SB thus they win IMO.
"The medium for the bad news was ESPN, which figured. The network represents much of what is loud, obnoxious and empty in sports today."
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First decision will be whether or not to go after Matt Flynn. This just seems like the holmgren type of move.
With Flynn you can really go BPA and possibly come out of the first 2 rounds with Trent Richardson, Alshon Jeffery and in the 2nd I would go get my RT in Flucker from Bama.
Without Flynn, I would not trade up for anyone. It is to strong of a draft. Might use my 2nd and try to trade up with Atlanta's pick but that would be the extent.
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A question (because of my total ignorance): Why is everyone thinking Matt Flynn is the guy we're going to go after?
Is it just because he's a free agent? Do you really think that he's going to be our franchise QB?
I have watched very little of him, so I can't speak to that. But I don't want the Browns to go out and get a guy unless we think he's THE guy.
I am unfamiliar with this feeling of optimism
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Quote:
A question (because of my total ignorance): Why is everyone thinking Matt Flynn is the guy we're going to go after?
Is it just because he's a free agent? Do you really think that he's going to be our franchise QB?
I have watched very little of him, so I can't speak to that. But I don't want the Browns to go out and get a guy unless we think he's THE guy.
For one, I'm not for signing that guy, I don't think he's much of an upgrade for us.
But, he runs the WCO and has been learning for a few years behind Rogers, and yes, he's available for FA. Who knows, maybe we do pick him up simply because we're going to have to meet that basement number next year.
For me though, if we're going to change QB I would rather do it via draft with a QB with huge upside.
If that happens, maybe you send Colt packing and bring in a guy like Flynn to help mentor the QB, as well as step in if needed.
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I have another question.. I'm working on a big post and it's relevant to the post..
Has John Greco started any game for the Browns in 2011?
SaintDawg™
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No. But he has subbed in (at RG) and looked pretty bad.
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I thought the one game (Seattle maybe?) he came in for an injured Lauvao and played reasonably well. Maybe I was just drunk.
I am unfamiliar with this feeling of optimism
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Thanks.. post to follow..
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http://www.draftinsiders.com/node/35NFL Draft Traded Picks .Updated - Oct 20, 2011 NFL Trading Period opened August 4 thru Oct. 18, 2011 - 4pm est NFL Trade Free Agency Period opened August 5, 2011 Period opened after new Collective bargaining agreement that expired March 3, 2011. Free Agency period usually goes March thru mid July. NFL Draft 2012 Traded Picks 1st Round Cleveland from Atlanta (2011 draft trade)New England from New Orleans (2011 draft trade) Cincinnati from Oakland (QB Carson Palmer) 2nd Round New England from Oakland (2011 draft trade) Philadelphia #2 from Arizona (QB Kevin Kolb) 3rd Round Chicago from Carolina (TE Greg Olsen) Raiders surrender pick for QB Terrelle Pryor (Supplemental 2011 NFL Draft) 4th Round Washington from Oakland (QB Jason Campbell) Cleveland from Atlanta (2011 draft trade)Philadelphia from Tampa Bay (2011 draft trade) Buffalo from Baltimore (WR Lee Evans) 5th Round Cincinnati from New England (WR Chad Ochocinco) 6th Round Cleveland from Denver (QB Brady Quinn)Philadelphia from New England (LB Tracy White) Washington from Minnesota (QB Donovan McNabb) New Orleans - conditional pick from Washington (OT Jammal Brown if he plays in 90% of the their offensive plays in 2011 or gets voted to the Pro Bowl.) Denver from St Louis (WR Brandon Lloyd) Pick could escalate to a #5 pick with higher production. 7th Round Minnesota from Cleveland (DE Jayme Mitchell)Kansas City from New England (S Jarrad Page) New England from Philadelphia (LB Tracy White trade) Minnesota from New England (WR Randy Moss trade) St. Louis – conditional pick from Cleveland (OL John Greco - if he starts one game in 2011) Seattle from Oakland (LB Aaron Curry) NY Jets from Houston (WR Derrick Mason) Conditional Selections Minnesota has a conditional pick from NY Giants (QB Sage Rosenfels playing time) Buffalo has a conditional pick from Seattle (RB Marshawn Lynch) Detroit has a conditional late-round pick from Seattle (OT Tyler Polumbus) Detroit will forfeit a 2012 draft pick for tampering (#6 if the Lions make the playoffs or a #7 if they don’t) New Orleans has an undisclosed pick from Miami (RB Reggie Bush) New Orleans from Miami (RB Reggie Bush) Green Bay from NY Jets (OG Caleb Schauderlaff) Green Bay from Tennessee (FB Quinn Johnson) NY Jets from Jacksonville (S Dwight Lowery) OK.. So lets see here now... WE have: Round One: 2 picks ours and Atlanta's first round pick (draft trade) Round Two: 1 pick ours Round Three: 1 pick ours Round Four: 2 picks ours and Atlanta's 4th round pick (draft trade) Round Five: 1 pick ours Round Six: 2 picks ours and Denvers 6th round pick (Brady Quinn) Round Seven: Maybe one pick.. One pick traded to Minnesota (Jayme Mitchell) and the other pick traded to St Louis IF Greco starts a game with Cleveland which he hasn't yet.. otherwise No picks..
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Quote:
6th Round
Cleveland from Denver (QB Brady Quinn)
ok, I don't even care that Hillis has done nothing this year, it's still a 
#gmstrong
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The Pats have been turning in their 1st rounders forever. They always have an extra one every year but never use it. I wonder if Belichick is waiting until Brady is finished and then will turn them all in for a guy 5 or 6 years from now who's the Andrew Luck type prospect.
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Quote:
That leaves......
Trent Richardson (RB - need)
Morris Claiborne (CB - need)
Quinton Coples (DE - need, but not typical DE size that Heckert drafts)
Jonathan Martin (OT - need - move to RT?)
Vontaze Burfict (LB - need...at 7??)
Riley Reiff (OT - need - move to RT?)
Alshon Jeffrey (WR - need, big target but he worries me)
In this scenario, I'd probably go Richardson or one of the OT's and come back in the late teens/early 20's and grab whatever I didn't draft at 7 or CB, G, WR.
The draft appears deep at LB so I'd wait to grab one in the 2nd round
In that scenario, it is easy for me Richardson at 7, followed by Claiborne. Then at 20 or whatever Atlanta's pick is, Reiff (likely not available) or Levy Adcock for RT. Zach Brown is intriguing to me here too, if around.
I'm liking Dwight Brown for WR in 2, though not sure where he'll end up (have read late first through 3rd round).
My first mock was
1a) Trent Richardson, RB
1b) Levy Adcock, RT
2) Dwight Jones, WR
3) Andre Branch, DE
4a) Nigel Bradham, OLB
4b) Omar Bolden, CB
5) Jeff Demps, RB
6a) Dominique Davis, QB
6b) Jerrell Young, FS
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Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 5,608 Likes: 89
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 5,608 Likes: 89 |
Quote:
But there's no way I'm trading 3 1st round draft picks for him (or any player for that matter).
Especially to move up one or two spots.
How does a league celebrating its 100th season only recognize the 53 most recent championships?
#gmstrong
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,445
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,445 |
Quote:
2. The moment you draft Luck you have to get rid of McCoy imho..
WHY??????????????
No way...McCoy's a 3rd round QB with minimal skills...That's a classic #2...
KEEP HIM...He's not even gonna sniff a team that runs a Vertical Offense...
Colt would be a SUPERB 2 here...
Go Browns!!!
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 10,246
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 10,246 |
I'm guessing he wants to get rid of McCoy because he's Django. It would make him physically ill if McCoy is still on this team, even if it's as the 4th string water boy.  Seriously, though, I don't know why we'd need to ship out McCoy (unless that is the pot sweetener that saves us from trading a bunch of draft picks).
I am unfamiliar with this feeling of optimism
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Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 3,259
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 3,259 |
agreed. I, like everyone else understand the desire for a franchise QB; but they need weapons and a defense too. We have soooo many holes I really don't like the idea of throwing away 5 or 6 picks on quality talent for one guy. If we gave up 3 firsts and 3 seconds say goodbye to a young WR, CB, FS, RT, LB, DE, RB, or any other holes we could shore up. If we were successful in getting Luck do you guys really think that THIS team with andrew luck and no one else (because we gave up all those picks) would do much better???
It comes down to how close you think this team is from competing. Either all the problems we have are on the QB, so trading the farm for Luck is worth it to you. The alternative logic is we have so many holes that trading 6 high picks to move up ~5 spots is ridiculous.
#gmstrong
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280 |
I don't ever root for the Browns to lose or to struggle to make a point but there would be a certain amount of irony in bringing in a guy like Luck and having him struggle and then watch all those who don't like McCoy complain that he has no weapons and just needs a little more time.
yebat' Putin
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DawgTalkers.net
Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) Atlanta and Draft Order Part II
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