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It comes down to how close you think this team is from competing. Either all the problems we have are on the QB, so trading the farm for Luck is worth it to you.




This is a tough question I think. If you go under the assumption that if you have no QB you are not competitive, then how do you weigh that? Do we have a QB? This isn't a CB or a DE or a WR, this is a guy you are expecting to be the identity of your offense.

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j/c

We could reasonably pick 4 starters with our first 4 picks in the 2012 draft...Lord knows we have the holes. Trading two of those potential starters -and possibly two more potential starters in 2013 - for anything other than an Elway/Manning would be a disaster.

We need at least one more very successful draft before we should consider a blockbuster move up in the draft. Use the first 4 picks this year for BPA at positions of need/upgrades at starting positions...the remaining picks at simply BPA...pick up 2 very-good free agents and 2 solid contributor free agents.

That potentially upgrades 12-13 guys on this team (14-15 if we count Steinbach & Jackson) and we might...just might...have a chance to get better. Get Steinbach back in along with Hillis/Hardesty/Jackson.

That and hope Luck stays for his senior year.

I'd like new starters at 4 spots...alot.

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I'd like new starters at 4 spots...alot.




Yeah, I would, too.

The only issue is, assume for the moment that McCoy keeps the job next year and, with all kinds of new weapons, he still can't produce. That means we're looking for a QB in the 2013 draft. Is there anyone out there that's going to be as good or better than the guys available this year?


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Does it matter? If there isn't, then you pick a starter at another spot and keep building the team.

Selling the farm for one player when you are so riddled with hole that you have mice following you is just short-sighted, IMO.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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I agree. I guess what I was getting at was, if there's a possibility to shore up one position that is so important (QB), and then fill in other holes in 2013, do you do it? Or do you fill in the holes now and then draft a QB in 2013? I guess it all depends on the talent level available at those positions.

It's all guesswork anyway. For me, I hope McCoy starts to shine and we don't have to worry about it. But, I'm not holding my breath on that.


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I'm guessing he wants to get rid of McCoy because he's Django. It would make him physically ill if McCoy is still on this team, even if it's as the 4th string water boy.

Seriously, though, I don't know why we'd need to ship out McCoy (unless that is the pot sweetener that saves us from trading a bunch of draft picks).




I said why...it's all there...the non quoted parts...in words and all


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I'd like new starters at 4 spots...alot.





RT has got to be one of them.

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Does it matter? If there isn't, then you pick a starter at another spot and keep building the team.

Selling the farm for one player when you are so riddled with hole that you have mice following you is just short-sighted, IMO.




I'd say the opposite. I just don't see how adding a potential Peyton Manning is short-sighted. It seems like a plan with the long term in mind.

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there's no way I'm trading 3 1st round draft picks for him (or any player for that matter)




So if the Green Bay Packers called right now and said, "We give you Aaron Rodgers, you gives us your two 2012 first rounders and a 2013 first rounder."

You would say no?

In reality you are only giving up two first rounders as you would be getting back the #1 overall, thus swapping the first rounder you already have.

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Does it matter? If there isn't, then you pick a starter at another spot and keep building the team.




Umm, yes?

When you don't have a franchise QB (and that's not me thinking that, it's Holmgren pretty much giving it away with the "keep drafting QBs till we get it right" comment), then YES it does matter if you take one in the draft class you have 3 top 50 picks or you wait fro 2013 where you don't have that (and a, projected, much worse QB class)


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Rodgers is proven, As much as people want to paint Luck as a sure thing he still needs to takes snaps against NFL defense before you can crown him anything than potential.

If you mortgage the farm and he is a bust you just set us back 3 - 4 years.

Even Rodgers I'd be cautious. One injury can end a career and again giving up that many picks we are set back.

This team has too many holes, Heckert knows this, Holmgren knows this, we aren't giving up that many picks to get Luck. I understand this is a message board and people like to talk, but if you are getting your hopes up be prepared to be seriously let down in April. JMO


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As much as people want to paint Luck as a sure thing he still needs to takes snaps against NFL defense before you can crown him anything than potential.





Totally agree. I've watched most of his games this year and he's very very good but nothing is ever set in stone for the NFL.

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and a, projected, much worse QB class




depending of course on who comes out this year.

I'm interested to see if the NFL rookie scale causes more players to come out and start their clock earlier, stay in school w/o the huge $$$ right away, or has no real effect at all.


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I'd say the opposite. I just don't see how adding a potential Peyton Manning is short-sighted. It seems like a plan with the long term in mind.




I agree.

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Quote:

Quote:

As much as people want to paint Luck as a sure thing he still needs to takes snaps against NFL defense before you can crown him anything than potential.





Totally agree. I've watched most of his games this year and he's very very good but nothing is ever set in stone for the NFL.




I'd love to get Luck, I'm just not going to mortgage the farm to get him when we can stay put and get Barkley or at worse swap 1st and give up a 2nd to move up a few spots to get Barkley.

And back on the Rodgers topic, what he go 24th overall? Isn't that the poster child of not mortgaging the farm and taking a guy that wasn't rated as high as others and letting him sit a few years? I mean Alex Smith that year was the projected #1 QB. Rodgers went 24th and Jason Campbell went a pick or two later.

Stay put, get Barkley. Let him sit a year behind Colt and use the other picks to build this team.


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It's really difficult to speculate on strategy until we know where we're picking.

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Because there are so many hypotheticals involved in this.. Like, has the FO given up on McCoy? Would somebody be willing to trade? Which QBs in the draft will the FO covet? Where will our ultimate draft slot be? What would the 'move up' asking price be?....

Lets say we end up with pick 5... (Hypothetically)... and we either can't find a trading partner or the asking price is just too high to move up and the QBs we want, assuming we want one, are likely to be gone.... We could always hedge our bets.

Take Blackmon or the best WR at that spot assuming he is worthy of a top 5 (or Richardson or some stud offensive weapon), take the best OT available with our SECOND ROUND pick.. and take the Atlanta pick and trade it to somebody for something as long as it involves a swap for their first round pick next year... then start the year with McCoy...

This way, we get a couple high round draft pick offensive weapons.. not as many as we could have but we fill a couple key spots... McCoy gets next year and if things don't get any better next year, we have a legit #1 WR, we have a serious upgrade at RT, each with a year of experience... AND we still have TWO first round picks in 2013 if we need to use them to trade up to make that QB move...

Just a thought...


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I like your thought. Especially if Murray continues to play like he has lately (would make Turk pretty happy if we got him).

the only problem is that #5 might be too late to grab Blackmon


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the only problem is that #5 might be too late to grab Blackmon




I would consider Alshon Jeffery at 5.


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the only problem is that #5 might be too late to grab Blackmon




I would consider Alshon Jeffery at 5.




Not me, he isn't very fast.

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the only problem is that #5 might be too late to grab Blackmon




In which case I will cry again, just like after we passed on Lesean McCoy.


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Quote:

Quote:

the only problem is that #5 might be too late to grab Blackmon



In which case I will cry again, just like after we passed on Lesean McCoy.




not getting him because he is gone (ala AJ Green) is not as bad as passing on a potential stud 3 times (to be fair: 2 times though since he had a 2nd round grade)


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Oh, I agree. I was just thinking that the end result is the same (don't get a guy that will help your team).


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I would go get my RT in Flucker from Bama





I'd like if for no other reason we could have fun with that name.

I'd get a jersey, and if he washed out, I'd Tim ouch his name.


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Quote:

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there's no way I'm trading 3 1st round draft picks for him (or any player for that matter)




So if the Green Bay Packers called right now and said, "We give you Aaron Rodgers, you gives us your two 2012 first rounders and a 2013 first rounder."

You would say no?

In reality you are only giving up two first rounders as you would be getting back the #1 overall, thus swapping the first rounder you already have.




Sorry, I meant for any draft pick. Established brilliance (Aaron Rodgers) is a little different.

One other thing I want to throw out there - right now there are 3 Top 20 QBs in this draft (Luck, Jones Barkley) - looking back at the last 20 years in drafts with 3+ top 20 QBs, let's see how many times the #1 QB has ended up being the best:


2011:
Newton 1
Locker 8
Gabbert 10
Ponder 12

Newton looks very good so far, but it's far too early to tell.

2009:
Stafford 1
Sanchez 5
Freeman 17

Freeman has the best production, if Stafford could stay healthy he might be competitive. Sanchez is far behind the other two.

2006:
Young 3
Lienart 10
Cutler 11

Cutler is the best by far

2004:
Eli Manning 1
Rivers 4
Roethlisberger 11

Roethlisberger > Rivers > Manning

2003:
Palmer 1
Leftwich 7
Boller 19

Palmer > Leftwich > Boller

1999:
Couch 1
Mcnabb 2
Smith 3
Culpepper 11
Mcnown 12

McNabb > Culpepper > Couch > McNown > Smith

So out of these "years of the QBs", the top ranked QB (in everybody's mind at the time of the draft) has turned out to be the best QB 1 time (Palmer 2003). The last of the top QBs has been the best 3 times (Roethlisberger, Cutler, Freeman), so it's really a crap shoot.

I would much rather take Jones/Barkley and have two other first rounders to play with.

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Agreed. If we were able to give up 2 1st rounders for Luck, I'd be all aboard for it. The atlanta pick was our choice in moving down to ultimately grab Phil Taylor, they wanted to move up so bad... Whats their record again by the way? So I view it as acceptable 'trade bait.'

Giving up the farm for one guy I don't agree with if only because the draft is all about potential. Does the guy you draft have the upside and potential to be a great player or even a contributor on your team? Having more rolls of the dice I think helps out.

As a team we've got a LOT of holes to fill. I can't identify a single thing on this team that we do well. I think making our QB be Luck and keeping this team "as is" elsewhere spells two more 4-6 win years because we'd be selling two drafts to get one guy.


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I would go get my RT in Flucker from Bama





I hope he is at the draft, I would like to see him stand up and hug mother Flucker.


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Quote:

2004:
Eli Manning 1
Rivers 4
Roethlisberger 11

Roethlisberger > Rivers > Manning




Man, doesn't it just seem like yesterday when this happened? I remember like it happened last year. It's been nearly 8.

Gotta say that while Rivers has had the better statistical seasons, Manning has the ring, and is playing far better than Rivers this season.

Lyuk, I wanna use something you said as a jumping-off point, if you don't mind:
Quote:

I would much rather take Jones/Barkley and have two other first rounders to play with.




I'd told Clemmy I'd respond to something, but I can kill two birds with one stone right here and thanks to you, hehe.

We know this team isn't going anywhere this season, so to discuss what might happen in the off-season is not at all out of bounds. So if I were calling the shots (and everyone here should thank their lucky Paul Brown Bobble-heads that I'm not!) and going off of the possibility that we may need a QB, the very LAST thing I'd do is trade all our draft picks to get up to #1 and get Luck. I really like the guy, but I don't know if he's the one that's worth trading your entire effective draft for if your in our shoes.

Conventional wisdom says it's gonna take more than both our #1's to get Luck. Ouch. IMHO (I pray for the day when we no longer have to qualify our opinions by actually stating it's an opinion...) we are simply too weak at too many positions to be giving it all up for just one guy.

If this season is any indication, it's quite possible we may need a QB, three offensive linemen, a receiver, a running back, one defensive end, one or two linebackers, one starting corner, and a starting safety. In other words, we need every high draft pick we can get, as well as as many solid free agents as we can afford. We can't fill those holes if we trade them all for Luck. I wish we were that close. Furthermore, I don't see Luck as being THAT much better than Barkley, who has a fair shot at being there when we pick. Even if we find that McCoy is good enough, we still have so many other holes to fill. It'd be awfully nice to find that McCoy is good enough, so we could conceivably drop further back in the 1st round by making a deal for someone who really wants Barkley. Yeah, fat chance, I know. Even if McCoy doesn't prove to be the guy, I wouldn't necessarily throw a 1st rounder at the position, not when someone like Campbell or Orton are out there. Neither guy is going to be named to a pro-bowl, but they are solid NFL guys who were coming into their own.

I'd find a way to keep the duo of Hardesty and Hillis back there at least for one more year so we don't have to commit a high pick to a RB. We will be getting Brandon Jackson back in 2012, minimizing the investment in the position.

At the guard position, I'd bring in some combination of bigtime starters and reclamation guys. I'm talking starters like Ben Grubbs and rebound guys like Vince Manuwai. That could move Pinks and Slovuao back to the bench to learn their trade.

We know Pashos is done. Taking someone like Kareem McKenzie would seem like a smart fix, but a pricey one in a market where there won't be many quality right tackles. That could mean a high investment, such as our later 1st or our 2nd.

At receiver I'd go after someone like Robert Meachem or Mario Manningham, both of whom are used to making tough catches in traffic, but aren't gonna get break-the-bank deals. We're in a WCO so we don't need to pay huge dollars for perceived #1 receivers, and thus don't really need to spend our 1st rounders on the position. We need to get Mass back from his concussion issues (while teaching McCoy not to keep doing that to his receivers) and continue to invest time to Little. Using Cribbs the right way means touches that other receivers won't get. While there will be big names on the draft board, I think it'd be a BIG waste to throw one of our first rounders down here. Having said that, if we did use a high pick, I'd take Blackmon or nobody.

We REALLY need someone to replace Mitchell. As of right now, Sheard is a Kam Wimbley clone: All speed rush and no run stuffing, and that won't play well here in this division, but he's very young. We won't be able to get Ngata. The Bidwell's might just be cheap enough to let Darnell Dockett go, and he's a guy I'd throw a big contract at to play DE. With all the cap space, we're good for one big contract, and he'd be the guy I'd go after. Beyond that, I'd probably spend our other 1st rounder here, as there are a few in the draft that will be around when we pick. I'm intrigued by Coples from NC.

I'm afraid if we want a starting corner, it's one of our 1st rounders or nothing. I don't like Aaron Ross, as he can't stay on the field. Leon Hall is having a very solid career, but he's coming off a torn achilles and will still get a huge deal. Beyond that? There won't be many attractive guys. The guy I REALLY wanted last time around was Carlos Rogers, who has been a beast in San Fran. They won't let him go now. How weird would it be if we signed Eric Wright back from the Lions?

If we really want a safety, we can get smart, skilled players in free agency without breaking the bank. We need someone to go with Ward, who has shown enough talent to still get a look. I'd go after Reggie Nelson from Cincy. Brown is a dope like Bill Bidwell, so he may be too cheap to pay a quality guy. I'd also love stealing someone from a division rival. Otherwise, I may be sticking with what's on the roster.

It may be a boring plan, but one that I think would fit under the team's budget while making sure our draft picks are spent the right way. I don't care for the idea of trading everything to move up and get Luck.


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Long read but worthwhile as always Toad!

Building the team as you describe may be "boring" but if it translates into wins, I'll happily be bored to tears


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Quote:

Conventional wisdom says it's gonna take more than both our #1's to get Luck




It most likely will...It depends on where we sit...Schefter's thought process is based on where we currently sit at 10-11...

Alot also depends on what we think of Barkley...He plays a huge roll in this...

If this thing ends up Indy/Miami 1-2 we might be screwed...UNLESS...

And this is key...Looking at Indy...Does Polian & Irsay realize they have done a disastrous job at building this team around Manning???...And make no mistake they HAVE...U just don't go from a consistent 13-3 or 14-2 to 1-15 just by losing your QB...This might just be a wake-up call to em'...

My guess is they will look heavily at Barkley and Jones also...It's time to get Manning's successor in the fold...Even if he sits for a year or two...And if we're sitting at 4 or 5 Indy could do REAL well by taking our offer of the 2 #1's and our 2013 #1...They still end up with possibly Jones...Another 1st rounder and 2 #1's next year...The higher we end up the less it will cost us...

Conversely...If we like Barkley...We could sit tight IF we are ahead of Miami...Rams and Carolina are key here...We could out trump any other team with an offer to move up for Barkley also...But we've gotta be as high as possible...

Holmgren knows how important it is to have a QB in this league...He's stated it since day one...And after 2 years he still doesn't have one...And if 2012 goes by and we still don't secure one...Then he's running outta time...

It's all based on how high we draft...I see NO WAY that we'd even think about throwing what Schefter says at Indy for Luck...And I tend to agree NOT TO...But if we're in striking distance for 3 #1's and possibly another pick...Then GO 4 IT...

Personally I would do whatever it takes ...WITHIN REASON...To land Luck or Barkley...And I'd also KEEP McCoy as our #2...I said earlier he's a QB with "Minimal" skills...I meant that he has "Some" skills...Enuff to keep us above water if we ever lost Luck or Barkley for a few games...

What would Wallace net us???...hehehe...

Alot of u guys don't like the go up move idea...If we're smart we'll be right in the thick of this thing...Solid QB's don't grow on trees...Solid QB's make everyone around them look better...Mediocre 2nd and 3rd round QB's DO grow on trees...Don't make anyone around them better...And get u stuck in mediocrity for as long as u choose to TRY to get them better...

Mid round QB's are a waist of flippen time...For every Brady u can name TWENTY FAILURES...


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It's going to be interesting, and no matter which route we take it is going to cause a stir. Each way, moving up or keeping the picks has it's merits.

I mentioned the FA route as did Toad. Either way we go, I think we need to look at FA as a way to get out of the basement.


Homey and Heck have next year to show some improvement. It doesn't have to be playoffs, but if has to be nearing the 8 win mark. Five, the're out, six, probably out, 7 wins, probably safe.


I don't think either is going to be real keen on heading in to next season with rookies holding their fate.

They now know where they are at, and know it isn't very good. The have to get to at least mediocre, and the surest way to mediocre is to be big FA players.

No matter where we draft or what we do with the picks, I'd expect to see us as free agent players next off season.

We have to start winning more match-ups on the field.


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Quote:

It's going to be interesting, and no matter which route we take it is going to cause a stir. Each way, moving up or keeping the picks has it's merits.

I mentioned the FA route as did Toad. Either way we go, I think we need to look at FA as a way to get out of the basement.


Homey and Heck have next year to show some improvement. It doesn't have to be playoffs, but if has to be nearing the 8 win mark. Five, the're out, six, probably out, 7 wins, probably safe.


I don't think either is going to be real keen on heading in to next season with rookies holding their fate.

They now know where they are at, and know it isn't very good. The have to get to at least mediocre, and the surest way to mediocre is to be big FA players.

No matter where we draft or what we do with the picks, I'd expect to see us as free agent players next off season.

We have to start winning more match-ups on the field.




Totally agree with everything except this...

Quote:

Homey and Heck have next year to show some improvement. It doesn't have to be playoffs, but if has to be nearing the 8 win mark. Five, the're out, six, probably out, 7 wins, probably safe.




They aren't going anywhere...And when Holmgren leaves I still think Heckert stays long-term in whatever position...None of the Top 3 are going anywhere and we'll have an OC next year...Lerner KNOWS he's got the right people in charge for once...


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The problem is that there aren't going to be a lot of FAs with any desire to come to the Browns. You'll have to severely overpay them to get them to consider it and it won't be enough to improve the team. The cost-benefit analysis won't be there.

I fully expect that the Browns will look to trade down if their guy isn't available where they select. As of right now, I would guess that they would be targeting either Justin Blackmon or Trent Richardson.

If for whatever reason, neither of them is available, and one of the 'top QB prospects' is on the board, they'll field offers from all teams seeking to move up and take the best one. If that were the scenario, we would very likely not be trading all that far down and looking for a king's ransom for doing so. Something like swapping those firsts and the Browns picking up the 2012 second rounder and third rounder plus a 2013 first rounder. (I know, that wouldn't be enough for some of you. Taking the first 3 picks from a team, all of them top 10 - or even top 5 - picks in those rounds, plus a following year first rounder. But that seems like a fairly decent value to me.)

If we were going to go out for FA WRs, why wouldn't we go after someone like TO right now? We could get him on the cheap (I'm thinking of league minimum kind of cheap) and give McCoy a target that could be a threat deep, which would take a load of pressure off of him.

Oh, I know, locker room cancer stories and all that. Just keep feeding him more of the humble pie and tell him to keep swallowing it.

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I'll reply to both you and A2day.


First.....I don't know DinD....I don't think the leash is that long. If we go out and win 4-5 games next year, I doubt the top of the O stays as is. I think they are replaced.

That will be their 3rd year with little improvement. I quess my question is why would anybody want them to stay??

Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

As for overpaying for FA....I think that is exactly what we will have to do.


I don't like it because it can hinder you in the future, but right now we have the cash, so we better start spending it.

With the new rookie wage scale it isn't as hard planning for the future as far as cap goes....we better bring in a few people who are proven performers to be the bridge before some of these young guys start to pan out.


I agree, it isn't a great prospect, but this team can't keep winning 3-4 games a year. Somewhere along the way they need to figure out a way to get to 8 wins.

I have seen 1 win in 9 games the last two seasons....trust me, that doesn't make anybody happy and want them to keep heading back.

Building for the future is great, and being in great shape with the cap is great, but it doesn't mean anything if your fans don't show up to watch games because they never see you win a ballgame when they do.

Winning sells tickets....cap space and draft choices don't.


If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.

GM Strong




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Quote:

Quote:

I would go get my RT in Flucker from Bama





I'd like if for no other reason we could have fun with that name.

I'd get a jersey, and if he washed out, I'd Tim ouch his name.






#GMSTRONG

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and I think we have 3 'camps' so to speak right now on QB.

camp1 - give it up for Luck -
you only get a chance at a franchise QB every so often. Luck has the least risk at becoming a franchise QB than any recent draft pick. So, draft Luck and then spend the next few years building the team around him.

camp2 - build the team -
your QB is screwed unless he has an actual team to be put into, so you might as well build that team first. plenty of good QB prospects are drafted in the mid-to-late 1st round or later. let's stabilize the OL, get some WRs, either resign Hillis or fix that hole, and continue to improve the defense. Then, we can go out and find our QB (for now we can either give Colt one more year or go out and get Orton or Flynn)

camp3 - let's hedge those bets -
we cannot afford to give up 4 prime picks for Luck. QB is too important to just hand it to a QB who has not demonstrated that he is going to be our franchise QB. So, we use one of our 1st rounders on a QB or maybe our 2nd rounder if we think our guy will drop (either Barkley/Jones if they drop or wait till ATL's pick and pickup the next best on Heckert's board). Then, we use the rest of those picks to build up the team. Give Colt one more year (ala the Brees v. Rivers situation in SD - except we hold 2 more years on Colt's contract so we would get to trade him and get picks if he blows up).


I cycle between camps 2 and 3.


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and I think we have 3 'camps' so to speak right now on QB.

camp1 - give it up for Luck -
you only get a chance at a franchise QB every so often. Luck has the least risk at becoming a franchise QB than any recent draft pick. So, draft Luck and then spend the next few years building the team around him.

camp2 - build the team -
your QB is screwed unless he has an actual team to be put into, so you might as well build that team first. plenty of good QB prospects are drafted in the mid-to-late 1st round or later. let's stabilize the OL, get some WRs, either resign Hillis or fix that hole, and continue to improve the defense. Then, we can go out and find our QB (for now we can either give Colt one more year or go out and get Orton or Flynn)

camp3 - let's hedge those bets -
we cannot afford to give up 4 prime picks for Luck. QB is too important to just hand it to a QB who has not demonstrated that he is going to be our franchise QB. So, we use one of our 1st rounders on a QB or maybe our 2nd rounder if we think our guy will drop (either Barkley/Jones if they drop or wait till ATL's pick and pickup the next best on Heckert's board). Then, we use the rest of those picks to build up the team. Give Colt one more year (ala the Brees v. Rivers situation in SD - except we hold 2 more years on Colt's contract so we would get to trade him and get picks if he blows up).


I cycle between camps 2 and 3.




Me too, although I can't completely write off camp 1, because of that extra pick. I don't think it's that far fetched for us to go and get that guy. However, as I keep saying, I think it may not matter as Luck and his dad are going to maybe force themselves into a certain city. Maybe that city is us. Maybe Mike Holmgren and Oliver Luck have been talking on back channels. Guess we'll see.

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I think there is a fourth camp and it is a mix of all three you mentioned...and yet none of them.

That fourth camp believes that camp #1 is probably the best camp...HOWEVER...

We are so devoid of talent that none of camps 1-3 will work for us. Camp 2 is the closest BUT we are awful at too many spots to even think that we are building the team yet.

We need another solid draft - and offseason - before we are in a reasonable position to be in any other camp but camp 2...even tho camp 1 usually makes the most sense.

Did that make any sense to anyone other than me?

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Yeah I know what you mean.

Regardless, I hope we don't trade down. I'm tired of us passing up the best of the best. I'm not saying I regret trading down, getting the extra pick and Phil Taylor, but you can't keep doing that. Eventually you have to start getting quality players instead of just going for quantity.

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it depends on our slot. last year was perfect to trade down because I felt all of the elite talent was picked ahead of us.

we could very well end up in a similar situation if we draft in the 8-12 range.


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