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Why would we do that for anyone other than Luck? And why would we give up next year's first when we have two this year?

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Why would we do that for anyone other than Luck? And why would we give up next year's first when we have two this year?




Because teams like Miami and Washington may just do it also...

And we have the most to offer...


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Contradiction???

Indianapolis 0-13 .548
Minnesota 2-11 .567
St. Louis 2-11 .582
Washington 4-9 .457
Jacksonville 4-9 .505
Carolina 4-9 .505
Miami 4-9 .524
Cleveland 4-9 .529

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html


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I wonder if we could trade up to St Louis' spot? They have Bradford, and need some semblance of a team around him.Maybe if we give them this year's 1st and next year's 1st we might be able to move up and get the QB of our choice. (minus Luck, obviously)




Thats actually a possibility. I think they will shop the pick, though they would want more immediate returns then a pick next year.

IMO it would cost us both the 1st rounders this year, then the Rams would owe us a little something....maybe their 3rd.

Maybe not. Just a quick check of the world famous draft value chart has the Rams pick valued at 2200. Our two first round picks are listed at 1400 and 780 points, or a total of 2180.

Even trade, we wouldn't get anything in return.


Again, I don't put a lot of stock in the chart since it doesn't take in to account supply and demand nor takes in to account how great a teams desire is to move. But, it's a chart that has lingered long enough to at least make me think it is a basic guide that can get you in to the ballpark when sizing up trade value.


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Quote:

I wonder if we could trade up to St Louis' spot? They have Bradford, and need some semblance of a team around him.Maybe if we give them this year's 1st and next year's 1st we might be able to move up and get the QB of our choice. (minus Luck, obviously)




yt...do you have any idea what the Browns would have to give up to trade up to the Rams position?

I don't see a QB worthy of that kind of move, other than Luck. The Browns have too many other needs to waste draft picks to move up for a QB.

After Luck, the quality of the QB is close enough to let the draft play out and see who is available when the Browns turn comes up.




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I am afraid that we will miss out on the top 3 QB if we stay put.

I can easily see Indy, (obviously) Miami, and Washington all coming in ahead of us, and all going QB.

I have a sick feeling that we are going to beat Arizona this weekend. Then we'll get slaughtered by Pittsburgh and Baltimore as revenge for having played them tough. The Arizona will will be one of those late season, meaningless wins that will knock us out of position for a premium QB.

I will say this ..... if we cannot get one of the top 3 QB in this draft, (Luck, Barkley, RG3) then I don't know what we'll do.

Landry Jones does not excite me. he has the physical tools, but lacks a lot of the rest that makes a great NFL starter. Tannehill doesn't excite me as a Browns QB from what I have seen. I wonder about his arm, and ability to make NFL throws. (sounds all too familiar)

If we don't land one of the top 3 guys, and decide that we must draft a QB, I would wait till the 3rd/4th and take a shot at a guy like Russel Wilson from Wisconsin. He's short, but he has a great arm, and plus accuracy. He is good in the pocket, and played behind a huge OL at Wisconsin, which may help with the height concerns. He seems to do a good job with his reads, and definitely has great leadership.

I think that he has enough that he would be in the mix at the top of the draft if he was 4 or 5 inches taller.

As a 3rd/4th round pick, I'd take a chance on him.


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Arizona has won 2 straight. Against good teams too.

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Quote:

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Why would we do that for anyone other than Luck? And why would we give up next year's first when we have two this year?




Because teams like Miami and Washington may just do it also...

And we have the most to offer...




Good, let them be the stupid ones, then. We have a couple more holes to fill than just taking a flyer on a QB.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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Quote:

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Why would we do that for anyone other than Luck? And why would we give up next year's first when we have two this year?




Because teams like Miami and Washington may just do it also...

And we have the most to offer...




Good, let them be the stupid ones, then. We have a couple more holes to fill than just taking a flyer on a QB.




Agree. Build your team and plug in your QB. Or, see what your current QB can then do.

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Quote:

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Why would we do that for anyone other than Luck? And why would we give up next year's first when we have two this year?




Because teams like Miami and Washington may just do it also...

And we have the most to offer...




Good, let them be the stupid ones, then. We have a couple more holes to fill than just taking a flyer on a QB.




Agree. Build your team and plug in your QB. Or, see what your current QB can then do.




I've blown this philosophy up numerous times. I don't feel like doing it again.

Long story short, that's the wrong route. Find your QB, build the team around the QB.



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And when your finally done...he's dead. ala Tim Couch, David Carr, soon to be Colt McCoy and a host of others.

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So if people go buy the Couch getting "couched" theory, than what's people's excuse for Big Ben who seems to play behind a poor O-line every other year? How about Rodgers who had a horrible offensive line for 2 years?

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i agree with you that the QB makes the offense more than anything else, but i do not agree with overpaying to move up in the draft.

if the QB we want doesn't fall to us, i think it will cost too much to move up.

---------------

also, St.L shopping their pick will likely depend on how closely rated they have Blackmon and Jeffrey (if they have one much higher, then I would think they just take them to not risk them being gone)


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So if people go buy the Couch getting "couched" theory, than what's people's excuse for Big Ben who seems to play behind a poor O-line every other year? How about Rodgers who had a horrible offensive line for 2 years?




They had more than just the QB.

You can get by with a sub-par line if you've got a gigantic mobile QB and quality elsewhere, but you cannot get by with a sub-par line when you have no receivers and questions at RB.
Those QB's had a weakness in *a* component of their offense, not *every* component.

People want a QB because they want our passing game to improve.... well, who the heck is he gonna throw it to? The QB's you cite had someone to throw to..... ours has Greg Little (and not much else) who has more than just a little trouble holding onto the ball.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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Quote:

So if people go buy the Couch getting "couched" theory, than what's people's excuse for Big Ben who seems to play behind a poor O-line every other year? How about Rodgers who had a horrible offensive line for 2 years?




Talent...Look what Ben and Rodgers had.

Couch?...zip.

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Ben getting hit because of his line is a fallacy. Ben is NOTORIOUS for holding on to the ball to extend plays, thus why his QB hit numbers are through the roof each year.While their line isn't made up of all pros, the Steelers line is always somewhat maligned for that perception about Ben getting hit so much. Besides, he came into the perfect situation with Bettis to hand off to and Burress and Ward to go up and get the ball when he threw it his rookie year.

And for the record, Rodgers took what was a NFC Championship team at 13-3 and dropped them to a 6-10 record. While I will admit he is arguably the top QB in the NFl right now, he didn't come out and set the world on fire like some on here believe. Not necessarily saying you did, Sperg. He doesn't hold on to the ball as long as Ben, but he does try to complete every read before he throws the ball. The GB Oline has weak spots, and it seems that always have at least one injury a year to a integral part of that unit.

Simply put, there is no definitive way to build a team. Diff'rent Strokes to rule the world...


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you are correct that Rodgers struggled to close-out games his first year starting.

also, it was the GB's defense first year in a switch to Dom Caper's 3-4 defense and they struggled with the transition as well.


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if the QB we want doesn't fall to us, i think it will cost too much to move up.




Thats not very good thinking on draft day...that's how Mangini "waited" things out because he was too cheap (or didn't have any evaluation skills) to go get your guy....Heckert has shown to do just that multiple times in the last 2 drafts...he moved up to get Taylor, Hardesty and Pinkston

I like that aggressivity and confidence to do deals and know exactly what you want.....if there is a QB the FO, Holmgren, Shurmur ALL like, I am 100% sure they will do whatever it takes to get him


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if the QB we want doesn't fall to us, i think it will cost too much to move up.




Thats not very good thinking on draft day...that's how Mangini "waited" things out because he was too cheap (or didn't have any evaluation skills) to go get your guy....Heckert has shown to do just that multiple times in the last 2 drafts...he moved up to get Taylor, Hardesty and Pinkston

I like that aggressivity and confidence to do deals and know exactly what you want.....if there is a QB the FO, Holmgren, Shurmur ALL like, I am 100% sure they will do whatever it takes to get him




if it takes both 1st rounders this year and our 1st next year, then I would like to think they have the valuation skills to realize not to overpay as well.


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So if people go buy the Couch getting "couched" theory, than what's people's excuse for Big Ben who seems to play behind a poor O-line every other year? How about Rodgers who had a horrible offensive line for 2 years?




Talent...Look what Ben and Rodgers had.

Couch?...zip.




So you're saying we're in the same shape we were in '99?

This isn't an expansion team like Couch and Carr had.

We have one of the premier left tackles in the NFL. A pro-bowl Center. We're getting an all-pro in Steinbach (maybe) back next year.

We have two pretty good Tight Ends in Watson and Moore. We have another first round pick and free agency to add some receiving threats.

Our defense is #9 in the NFL.


This team isn't as far off as everyone is making them out to be. Add a real NFL caliber QB to this team and we win 9-10 games.



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Quote:

Quote:

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So if people go buy the Couch getting "couched" theory, than what's people's excuse for Big Ben who seems to play behind a poor O-line every other year? How about Rodgers who had a horrible offensive line for 2 years?




Talent...Look what Ben and Rodgers had.

Couch?...zip.




So you're saying we're in the same shape we were in '99?

This isn't an expansion team like Couch and Carr had.

We have one of the premier left tackles in the NFL. A pro-bowl Center. We're getting an all-pro in Steinbach (maybe) back next year.

We have two pretty good Tight Ends in Watson and Moore. We have another first round pick and free agency to add some receiving threats.

Our defense is #9 in the NFL.


This team isn't as far off as everyone is making them out to be. Add a real NFL caliber QB to this team and we win 9-10 games.




great point.

I remember a game this year where the announcer for the game was saying the same thing. Listing off guys who are quality starters and possible future pro bowlers. I don't think this is the worst roster in the league but I do think we need better players, I've said that in pretty much every post game thread. I guess just about every team can say they need better players.

I love Colt but I'm pretty much off his bandwagon. I hate it, but I think it's been made obvious. You can't go 0-fer in the division like this. I do realize it's clearly the best division in football, but that's all the reason to try and lock down a top notch QB.

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and then what? Trot out McCoy another year? win 2 more games, drafting out of the top 10 for the next 2- 3 years?

If our pick is in the top 10 or even top 5...we evaluate all QBs and go get the best one THIS draft...if it takes 3x1sts so be it....if you think about it we'd only "lose" one 1st factoring in the ATL deal...or better we would virtually trade our 1st 2013 for ATL's 4th 2012...that's a huge value loss for sure, but we don't lose out in quantity of picks and if that value gap is all we lose it's well worth for the best QB on your board...it's not like we lose an entire draft class...this isn't Savage all over again...we still have 2nd, 3rd and 2x4th etc 2012 and still have all other picks for 2013

Actually I think it will take more (depends on our position though) and I'd trade those 3x1st in a heartbeat for whoever QB Heckert has #1 on his board....if we pick 4th, maybe the ATL pick is enough...if we pick 7th+ it will take WAY more as there is more risk involved for the team trading down and more competition from teams ahead of us....I hate watching the Browns lose, but losing out vs 1 more win could be "worth" a 1st rounder..and in the grand scheme of things I'd rather see 3 more "competitive" games like the one thursday we lose than 1 lucky or moral victory here ot there


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i would rather put Colt out there another year with some veteran competition than overpay so much that we handcuff the guy we select, yes.


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This season has sucked but it will be equally as painful if we lose out on a possible franchise QB because we some how miraculously beat Miami and Seattle.

My only fear in chasing a QB, if the draft order sticks, is giving up too much to get him. The Browns have holes all over the place on offense and having to give up additional picks for a guy who probably won't start next year isn't going to help. Plus, it's only going to limit said QB in that those additional picks can't be used on a WR/RB and or TE.

At this point, Im just rooting very, very hard for Miami and Washington to win one more game. Carolina obviously isn't going QB and I think Jacksonville and Tampa probably wait one more year before making a decision on who they have now (Gabbert / Freeman). The swing teams are certainly the Dolphins and Redskins now, as I think both could take signal callers.

With all that said, this would seem to be the time that Cleveland will win a meaningless game, thus dropping them out of range of any of the top tier offensive difference makers in this draft.

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Quote:

So if people go buy the Couch getting "couched" theory, than what's people's excuse for Big Ben who seems to play behind a poor O-line every other year? How about Rodgers who had a horrible offensive line for 2 years?




And there were other pieces that fit the schemes that the teams ran. The Browns lack the receivers to make the WCO successful. The ones they have aren't smart enough to read defenses, don't run clean routes, and don't have good hands. They simply run the routes of the play called (sometimes) and do them poorly most of the time. Because they don't do an adequate job of running their routes, McCoy has to hold the ball longer and he takes a beating because of it. When he scrambles to extend plays or try to make a positive play, they do better than if the play called actually plays out.

The complaints that the passes that McCoy completes are short ones need to realize that receivers can't get separation, run poor routes and know that a dropped ball could very well lead to a punt sometime during a drive or a FG attempt. The Browns opponents are fine with giving up the short underneath pass because they have confidence that the damage will me minimal.

As for the Browns' offensive line - the right side is worthless. Put a turnstile or revolving door in and it'd slow down opponents more.

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Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

So if people go buy the Couch getting "couched" theory, than what's people's excuse for Big Ben who seems to play behind a poor O-line every other year? How about Rodgers who had a horrible offensive line for 2 years?




Talent...Look what Ben and Rodgers had.

Couch?...zip.




So you're saying we're in the same shape we were in '99?

This isn't an expansion team like Couch and Carr had.

We have one of the premier left tackles in the NFL. A pro-bowl Center. We're getting an all-pro in Steinbach (maybe) back next year.

We have two pretty good Tight Ends in Watson and Moore. We have another first round pick and free agency to add some receiving threats.

Our defense is #9 in the NFL.


This team isn't as far off as everyone is making them out to be. Add a real NFL caliber QB to this team and we win 9-10 games.




Im saying we should have built a team in 99 then added the QB and Im saying lets get some solid talent NOW then look at a QB. These guys arent the last QB's who will come out of college highly ranked. Not sold on Colt but get the line shored up, a WR or RB and see where we are at.

4-9 aint close and close means nothing. The Super Bowl losers were close but that dont mean anything. I want to be THERE, not close!

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Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

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So if people go buy the Couch getting "couched" theory, than what's people's excuse for Big Ben who seems to play behind a poor O-line every other year? How about Rodgers who had a horrible offensive line for 2 years?




Talent...Look what Ben and Rodgers had.

Couch?...zip.




So you're saying we're in the same shape we were in '99?

This isn't an expansion team like Couch and Carr had.

We have one of the premier left tackles in the NFL. A pro-bowl Center. We're getting an all-pro in Steinbach (maybe) back next year.

We have two pretty good Tight Ends in Watson and Moore. We have another first round pick and free agency to add some receiving threats.

Our defense is #9 in the NFL.


This team isn't as far off as everyone is making them out to be. Add a real NFL caliber QB to this team and we win 9-10 games.




Im saying we should have built a team in 99 then added the QB and Im saying lets get some solid talent NOW then look at a QB. These guys arent the last QB's who will come out of college highly ranked. Not sold on Colt but get the line shored up, a WR or RB and see where we are at.

4-9 aint close and close means nothing. The Super Bowl losers were close but that dont mean anything. I want to be THERE, not close!




That's my point. A Quarterback can take you from close to there. A top 5 Defensive End or Wide Receiver isn't.



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Ok, lets go have lunch and a beer!

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So you're saying we're in the same shape we were in '99?




I'll say that we're in a worse position than we were in 1999. We've had a dozen years to get talent on this team and the only one left is the kicker and that's because we slapped the franchise tag on him.

We have two pro-bowlers on the line now, three when (or if) Steinbach comes back and we're 3 games (and losses) away from being 4-12. Even when we had all three of them on the line last year, we managed just 5 wins. What's that tell you?

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This isn't an expansion team like Couch and Carr had.




It's worse. There weren't any expectations for success in 1999. After 12 years, we've had a Cleveland comedian make a viral video calling the stadium that the Browns play at the 'Factory of Sadness'. The people of Cleveland were thrilled to have their team back in 1999. Today, many fans are openly questioning why they continue to shell out piles of cash for tickets, merchandise and ancillary purchases.

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We have one of the premier left tackles in the NFL. A pro-bowl Center. We're getting an all-pro in Steinbach (maybe) back next year.




And we have what to show for it? Another 5-11 or 4-12 season? It's a good thing you can't see the expression on my face.

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We have two pretty good Tight Ends in Watson and Moore. We have another first round pick and free agency to add some receiving threats.



We have excellent tight ends that don't get utilized properly.

Quote:

Our defense is #9 in the NFL.




Great! Our division opponents still have better defenses than we have and better offenses.

Quote:

This team isn't as far off as everyone is making them out to be. Add a real NFL caliber QB to this team and we win 9-10 games.




Judging by the production on the field, I think we're further than you think and it's not because of the QB play but many other aspects of the team, starting with the front office and coaching staff to areas on the offense (right side of the line and the WRs, plus the RBs) that lack any competence whatsoever.

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The expectations of this team and the expansion team are irrelevant.

There's 10 times the talent on this team than the expansion team, period.

Coaching and Quarterback play is the problem with this team.



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The expectations of this team and the expansion team are irrelevant.

There's 10 times the talent on this team than the expansion team, period.

Coaching and Quarterback play is the problem with this team.




Ten times more talent? And yet, we have 2 more wins than an expansion team in it's first year, 1 more than that team in it's second year and 3 fewer wins than that team in just it's third year, with a new head coach no less!? Ten times more talent. Uh huh. Whatever you're smoking, you probably should stop!

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i would rather put Colt out there another year with some veteran competition than overpay so much that we handcuff the guy we select, yes.




Holmgren has already said that he doesn't believe in QB competitions. He believes in picking a guy and going with him.

If a QB is brought in, he will either start, or back up McCoy from the get go. He won't be "competition".


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Quote:

The expectations of this team and the expansion team are irrelevant.

There's 10 times the talent on this team than the expansion team, period.

Coaching and Quarterback play is the problem with this team.




It's almost as people forget how awful those teams were.

This team now is pretty bad but they do have 4 wins, and by nature of just running common routine plays properly, should probably be at the 6, even 7 win mark.

Thomas and Mack are pro bowlers. Haden and Sheard are future pro bowlers. Ward, Taylor, Jackson, Watson and Steinbach are good starters. Heck I still think when Peyton Hillis is right and the line is doing their thing, that he's a really good starter.

Plenty of head-scratching players on this team, but I do think they are a QB and a few other players away from being a lot better. It's not easy with the Browns. They don't get to play in some of these other crappy divisions every year. You have 2 Super Bowl contenders as well as another team that is solid to deal with (Still think Cincinnati is a pretender, but I think they are right outside that door)

I have no problem with that, because they'll be better off for it in the long run.

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DraftWatch: Browns move up

The bad news is that the Cleveland Browns (4-9) clinched last place in the AFC North as well as their 10th losing season in 12 years since rejoining the NFL.

The good news is that the Browns moved up one spot on the draft board to No. 6, inching past Jacksonville after the Jaguars won Sunday.

In the top six on Mel Kiper's latest Big Board, there are two quarterbacks (Stanford's Andrew Luck and USC's Matt Barkley), one running back (Alabama's Trent Richardson) and one wide receiver (Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon).

Here's the current draft order, according to ESPN Stats & Information:

1. Colts (0-13)
2. Vikings (2-11)
3. Rams (2-10)
4. Panthers (4-9)
5. Redskins (4-9)
6. Browns (4-9)
7. Dolphins (4-9)
8. Jaguars (4-9)
9. Buccaneers (4-9)
10. Chiefs (5-8)
11. Eagles (5-8)
12. Bills (5-8)

BSPN


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Sounds like I should buy a Redskins jersey. Go skins!

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I think Carolina's got one more W in them too. #4 is very much in play.


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GBN has us at number 8 - anybody know the difference between the calculations?

Our Power of Opponents will certainly go up in the next few weeks, so that would be bad for us.


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I can't post my normal spread sheet of the updated draft order this week b/c my laptop is dead at the moment....but here is the text version of the current draft order.

Any differing orders are either incorrect, or they are including the rest of the teams opponents into their strength of schedule even though they haven't actually played them yet. My list only includes those opponents whom each team has actually played to this point. So it's literally a "if the season ended today" draft order.

Without further ado...

Pos/Team/Record/SoS

1. Indianapolis Colts 0-13 .5503
2. St Louis Rams 2-11 .5562
3. Minnesota Vikings 2-11 .5740
4. Carolina Panthers 4-9 .4793 (Conf% tie-breaker)
5. Washington Redskins 4-9 .4793
6. Cleveland Browns 4-9 .4970
7. Miami Dolphins 4-9 .5089
8. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9 .5325
9. Tampa Bay Bucs 4-9 .5503
10. Kansas City Chiefs 5-8 .4793
11. Philadelphia Eagles 5-8 .4911
12. Buffalo Bills 5-8 .5030
13. Arizona Cardinals 6-7 .4675
14. Seattle Seahawks 6-7 .4852
15. San Diego Chargers 6-7 .5089
16. Dallas Cowboys 7-6 .4675
17. Tennessee Titans 7-6 .4970
18. Cincinnati Bengals 7-6 .5207 (Div% tie-breaker)
19. Chicago Bears 7-6 .5207
20. Cincinnati Bengals (from OAK) 7-6 .5325
21. New York Giants 7-6 .5148 *
22. Cleveland Browns (from ATL) 8-5 .4734 *
23. New York Jets 8-5 .5030 *
24. Detroit Lions 8-5 .5148 (Conf% tie-breaker) *
25. Denver Broncos 8-5 .5148 *
26t. San Francisco 49ers 10-3 .4497 (coin flip) *
26t. New England Patriots 10-3 .4497 (coin flip) *
28. New Orleans Saints 10-3 .4615 *
29. Houston Texans 10-3 .4675 *
30. Baltimore Ravens 10-3 .4970 *
31. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-3 .5089 *
32. Green Bay Packers 13-0 .4438 *

* - Projected playoff team, actual order to be determined from playoffs


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Quote:

DraftWatch: Browns move up

The bad news is that the Cleveland Browns (4-9) clinched last place in the AFC North as well as their 10th losing season in 12 years since rejoining the NFL.

The good news is that the Browns moved up one spot on the draft board to No. 6, inching past Jacksonville after the Jaguars won Sunday.

In the top six on Mel Kiper's latest Big Board, there are two quarterbacks (Stanford's Andrew Luck and USC's Matt Barkley), one running back (Alabama's Trent Richardson) and one wide receiver (Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon).

Here's the current draft order, according to ESPN Stats & Information:

1. Colts (0-13)
2. Vikings (2-11)
3. Rams (2-10)
4. Panthers (4-9)
5. Redskins (4-9)
6. Browns (4-9)
7. Dolphins (4-9)
8. Jaguars (4-9)
9. Buccaneers (4-9)
10. Chiefs (5-8)
11. Eagles (5-8)
12. Bills (5-8)

BSPN




Does that mean the top five prospects will be gone by the time the Browns pick at 6? LOL,, Just kidding


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Ok - good to know what the difference is.

That being said - I think the gbn ranks are a little more reliable then - we know our power of opponent will go up in the next few weeks, because the final records of the teams we are facing are more or less set.


~Lyuokdea
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DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) Atlanta and Draft Order Part III

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