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I would add that I really like RG3 in a WCO
I think maybe his stock's going to go higher than what I'm comfortable with - but if he is around at Atlanta's pick (after his height is given at the combine) i'd be interested.
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I'd be shocked. With no trades, I'd be very surprised if Griffin is available at 8. With trades, I bet all 3 QBs will be gone by 5.
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I have been telling everyone I know that if Andrew Luck isn't a Colt he is a Brown.
If they trade Luck it's because they have decided to keep Manning. And if they keep Manning they will need as many immediate assets as possible. There is no other team (besides the Bengals and they have a QB) that can offer them two first rounders this year.
With all that said, I think they cut Manning and take Luck. It's the smart move. They then can trade some of their aging players for draft picks and build a young core around Luck.
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I'd be shocked. With no trades, I'd be very surprised if Griffin is available at 8. With trades, I bet all 3 QBs will be gone by 5.
I agree.
I would like to see if we can move up to 2 or 3 with our 1st round pick next year.
I really think that RG3 is going to be a star. I would love to see him in Cleveland. (In a Browns uniform that is)
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I have been telling everyone I know that if Andrew Luck isn't a Colt he is a Brown.
If they trade Luck it's because they have decided to keep Manning. And if they keep Manning they will need as many immediate assets as possible. There is no other team (besides the Bengals and they have a QB) that can offer them two first rounders this year.
With all that said, I think they cut Manning and take Luck. It's the smart move. They then can trade some of their aging players for draft picks and build a young core around Luck.
I agree except that I think Peyton re-does his contract and gets traded to the team of his picking. He is very PR sensitive and by doing so can keep the good-will with the Indy fans for when he retires.
Not sure if Indy can convince him to go NFC (SF the obvious choice there).
#gmstrong
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Just to prepare you for this kind of draft if we go that route:
1 QB Luck (for 3x 1st)
2 DE Ingram or DE Perry
3 CB Judie or CB Gilmore
4a RB D.Martin or ILB J-M Johnson
4b S T.Robinson or S K.Tate or S Henry
5 WR J.Wright or WR TY Hilton
6a OT/G Zusevics
6b DT DaJohn Harris
Nothing...And I mean NOTHING wrong with that one bit...
Everyone wants to think we can't continue building and acquiring talent if we burn the 3 first's for a Luck...Or less for a Barkley...
BS...We will be players in FA going forward...
What's MORONIC is this idiotic thinking of building the team then go get your QB...Good flippen luck with that...
Countless crap teams have taken their QB HIGH in round one...U TAKE HIM if u don't already have him...Cardinal rule in the NFL...
Go Browns!!!
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U TAKE HIM if u don't already have him
noone is arguing that. what people are arguing is how much is too much to pay to move UP to take him.
#gmstrong
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Luck for 3 firsts ... I think I'd do it, but I'd probably feel sick doing it.
Well, it's not really 3 full picks when you look at it.
It's swapping 1st's (#1 and #6) and then trading (2) first round picks (ATL's #22 and Next years #1).
Given our draft history, I'm willing to part with two additional #1's if it means getting what many think is a sure fire franchise QB. I don't think anyone is going to miss whoever we would have taken at #22 this year and #12-15 next year if it means some stability (and production) at QB moving forward.
That still leaves the Browns with a 2nd, 3rd and two 4ths in 2012 to add talent around Luck.
Plus, think some free agents might want to play with the #1 pick and a QB that everyone just raves about? Don't think that's a tough sell with JT, Luck and additional offensive talent Cleveland picks up in rounds 2-4.
Again, don't think that trade offer would be enough but if Indy would take it, I wouldn't think twice.
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Luck for 3 firsts ... I think I'd do it, but I'd probably feel sick doing it.
I posted this in another thread but no one took me up on it.
So I'll use random.org to generate numbers to show my outlook on this.
8-16
11-27
2-6
Basically what I was trying to accomplish was the difference between percieved and true value. What many people do is overvalue draft picks because they are looking at picks that are homeruns, not the ones that are absolute busts or average at best, non-difference makers.
The numbers above correlate to the 12 draft years from 1999-2010. The second row is the pick 1-32 in the first round.
Random.org generated the results.
The players those numbers correspond to are:
8-16 (2006 NFL Draft, 16th Pick): Jason Allen, DB Tennessee drafted by Miami
11-27 (2010 NFL Draft, 27th Pick): Devin McCourty, DB Rutgers drafted by New England
2-6 (2000 NFL Draft, 6th Pick): Corey Simon, DT Florida State drafted by Philadelphia
Would you trade comparable players to these three for Andrew Luck? Of course.
Do the exercise for yourself if you'd like but what you'd see is more often than not the reality of those picks are inferior to their widely anticipated value.
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Would you trade comparable players to these three for Andrew Luck? Of course.
But this system is flawed. How about looking at Ravens 1st round picks or something
And the most dangerous thing, all these picks for one guy. And for all we know Andrew Luck could tear some muscle in his shoulder and never be the same again. Bam, total failure
UCONN HUSKIES 2014 Champions of Basketball
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jc
I'm very hestitant to include our 2013 first rounder in a trade up. It's easily more valuable than the Falcon's 2012 first rounder. I don't think I would even consider including it in any trade up not involving Luck.
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3 firsts for Luck would be equal to Vikings trade for Hershell Walker and the Saints trade for Ricky Williams. It would probably have similar results as those trades.
We are in a good position to build this team, no need to get stupid.
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3 firsts for Luck would be equal to Vikings trade for Hershell Walker and the Saints trade for Ricky Williams. It would probably have similar results as those trades.
We are in a good position to build this team, no need to get stupid.
Exactly - can't remember a "king's ransom" trade that actually worked for the team giving up picks.
And that's true even though most of those players were very very good (Williams/Walker)
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Man, this fanbase is all over the place with how to proceed, what is good for the Browns going forward....there are even different camps for what we've seen THIS season....if anything it's an indicator that H&H don't have an easy offseason ahead...they won't satisfy everyone and they will PO some fans, that's the safest thing to say
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Exactly - can't remember a "king's ransom" trade that actually worked for the team giving up picks.
And that's true even though most of those players were very very good (Williams/Walker)
I think ATL is feeling pretty good about their trade last year.
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13 years of (mostly) futility and frustration will do that to even the most loyal fanbase. This wasn't going to be easy no matter who was steering the ship. I don't think Holmgren was/is naive to that fact.
As has been said many times on this forum (and, on this point, I think we can all agree): winning will cure what ails the fanbase. If and when we ever get to the point where we are a contender every year (or at least MOST years), just wait and see what this town and expatriate fans who are scattered about the country will do. It won't matter who was right and who was wrong about HOW to get to the summit. This place will go nuts!
[color:"white"]"Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference."
-- Mark Twain [/color]
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How about Tony Dorsett? Eli Manning? John Elway? Jerry Rice? Clay Matthews? Mike Vick? Darrell Revis?
There are plenty of examples of trading 3+ picks that worked out quite well on draft day.
The way Julio Jones is playing right now it's possible that we're going to be on the wrong side of that one!
Were we on the wrong side of the Sanchez mega trade? I think most unbiased nfl people would say yes.
Last edited by Heldawg; 12/14/11 06:41 PM.
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3 firsts for Luck would be equal to Vikings trade for Hershell Walker and the Saints trade for Ricky Williams. It would probably have similar results as those trades.
We are in a good position to build this team, no need to get stupid.
Exactly - can't remember a "king's ransom" trade that actually worked for the team giving up picks.
And that's true even though most of those players were very very good (Williams/Walker)
The Giants swapped 1sts (#4 and #1) with SD and traded a #1, #3 #5 for Eli Manning.
The Cowboys swapped 1sts (#14 for #2) and traded (3) #2's for Tony Dorsett.
The 49ers swapped 1sts (#28 for #16) and traded a #2 and #3 for Jerry Rice.
I know some haven't worked out but some certainly have as well.
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2 firsts and 2 thirds would be very high but reasonable. 3 firsts is just not rational.
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Everyone wants to think we can't continue building and acquiring talent if we burn the 3 first's for a Luck...Or less for a Barkley...
I don't. I'd spend 3 1st's on Luck in an instant. We can still get a WR/LB/RT/CB/RB in rounds 3+. We'd probably need to go get a DE in FA (don't know who might be available) but that's certainly a possibility as you stated.
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What's MORONIC is this idiotic thinking of building the team then go get your QB...Good flippen luck with that...
In general I agree with you. The problem is the QB we need most likely won't be available to us if we pick in the 6-9 range. So the question is then, who are you willing to trade up for and how much are you willing to give up to make it happen? My guess is the cost for moving up is going to be steep...and there's exactly 1 QB in this draft I'm willing to pay a "steep" price to move up and get. Now if someone else FALLS to us (Barkley), yes...or if the price to acquire a Barkley isn't nearly as ridiculous as I think it will be then sure.
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U TAKE HIM if u don't already have him...Cardinal rule in the NFL...
Again I completely agree with you in theory....but what happens if we decide to pay 3 1st for Luck and Indy still says no? I think that's a real possibility. Even though Colt isn't the answer doesn't mean you over pay for someone else "just because".
I'll pay 3 1sts to move up and draft the next Peyton Manning (Luck).
I refuse to pay 3 1sts to move up and draft the next Seneca Wallace (RG3) just because our version isn't good enough.
![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/GraffZ06/browns_factory_sig.jpg) Fear us, for we are the BROWNS, led by the mighty BM! Only in Cleveland.
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1 QB Luck (for 3x 1st)
Moronic! 
It might be moronic, but I also think it's going to happen.
And if it does happen, the Browns will suck for another dozen years and there would be calls for his replacement in 2 years.
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How about Tony Dorsett? Eli Manning? John Elway? Clay Matthews? Mike Vick? Darrell Revis?
There are plenty of examples of trading 3+ picks that worked out quite well on draft day.
The way Julio Jones is playing right now it's possible that we're going to be on the wrong side of that one!
1.) Tony Dorsett (#2 overall) was traded for #24 and three second round picks, not quite 3 first rounders, but I'll give that one to you.
2.) I would take Rivers + Merriman + Nate Kaeding + Roman Oben over Manning any day
3.) Not a "kings ransom" deal - since Elway had refused to play for the Colts, who got a 1st round pick and a medicore QB/OT for him
4.) Not sure which Clay Matthews you're talking about, but a 2nd and two thirds for a first is not even close to a kings ransom
5.) I would take Ladainian Tomlinson + junk over Vick everyday
6.) 25th + 2nd + 5th for 1st is not a "kings ransom"
7.) Julio Jones is still way too early to tell, since we don't even know who our first round pick this year is.
So 4 of your trades don't apply, two go the opposite way "LT and Rivers", and I'll give you Dorsett.
Of course none of them are close to this deal
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And yet you have others that would sprint to the podium to make that trade.
I'm saying I would do it. And that's coming from purely a rational position where I look at today's NFL landscape.
I used to be firm in the build a complete team around a QB that can be competent. I've softened on that the last couple of years.
Now I've fully embraced that you have to have a top QB if your goal is to win the SuperBowl. Why? Mostly for reasons having to do with rules changes in the secondary. Today you have the ability for WRs to run pretty much wherever you want to!
1. Just a few years ago a cornerback could hand fight a WR down the field.
2. Just a few years ago if a safety decapitated a WR on a post route they got endorsement deals not fines and suspensions - e.g. John Lynch
I'm telling you there is someone running a skinny post or a slant route on almost every pass play. And those routes would get you put on IR pretty damn often. Ask Cris Collingsworth how much he loved doing that. It was hard to find recievers willing to do it!!!
When's the last time you heard about a WR not wanting to run those routes! Years?!?
For better or for worse it's basketball on a football field. To compete with elite teams you have to have a guy that can reliably, accurately get these "basketball" players the ball in space, on the move.
If the Colts are willing to commit to Manning, and he's healthy, you get that trade done no matter the cost IMO.
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The way Julio Jones is playing right now it's possible that we're going to be on the wrong side of that one!
i'd say that trade is working out for both parties so far.
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Were we on the wrong side of the Sanchez mega trade? I think most unbiased nfl people would say yes.
i think you might be surprised. as bad as Sanchez has been, he would have been worse on our team (i think that is safe to say). would we be looking for his replacement now anyway?
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So the result, in this hypothetical scenario, leaves Cleveland with:
Andrew Luck + 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th in 2012
If you're going to go after a QB, this is the year to do it. Cleveland has 6 picks in the 1st 4 rounds.
What am I missing here? In terms of this not making sense?
You get your franchise guy and then have 4 more picks in the top 4 rounds to surround him with more offensive talent.
Luck plus those remaining draft choices sounds pretty damn good to me.
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Brian Orakpo would look pretty good on our team right now. Not to mention the players further down in the draft like Matthews, Harvin and others.
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Brian Orakpo would look pretty good on our team right now. Not to mention the players further down in the draft like Matthews, Harvin and others.
So every time you trade down - it's a bad trade if there is any player in between where you started and where you ended who is good?
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Agreed.
And you draft or acquire a WR with some top end speed to blow the top off coverages like Vincent Jackson or DeSean Jackson.
Can you imagine how much more entertaining it would be to watch Browns football?
Seriously.
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Brian Orakpo would look pretty good on our team right now. Not to mention the players further down in the draft like Matthews, Harvin and others.
why do players not involved in the trade matter at this point in evaluating that trade? not to mention you are talking about players we could have decided to draft at #17 after the trade with the Jets.
they got Sanchez who has not been a franchise QB and who we likely pick if we stay in that #5 slot.
we got Mack and a bunch of players no longer with the team.
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Brian Orakpo would look pretty good on our team right now. Not to mention the players further down in the draft like Matthews, Harvin and others.
So every time you trade down - it's a bad trade if there is any player in between where you started and where you ended who is good?
No.
On the flip side I could cherry pick three players (2 in 2012, 1 in 2013) that might shoot my strategy in the foot.
I was just responding to the people saying that megatrades don't ever work out for the ones doling out draft picks. They do, in my estimation, a little bit less than 50% of the time.
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When Giants traded up for Eli, they gave up their 1st and 3rd in 2004 and first and 5th in 2005. I think the same deal would probably land us Andrew Luck if we are picking in the top 5. Might need to add another 4th but it could be workable.
Good point. Since we have 2 first rounders this year, I would rather just do it all this year in so far as the first rounders, then relinquish a 3rd and 5th next year.
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That would be reasonable - though I might rather have Barkley and the pick - need to evaluate them further first.
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It wont take that much, especially when you consider this is a pretty loaded draft for QBs. Hell, I dont think there is that much difference between the top guys. Luck and Barkley are more NFL ready but Tannehill and Jones have the greater upside imho.
Then you have RG3, and his wow factor.
So 3 firsts is just way to much. I would take Richardson or Claiborne and take whatever QB fell in my lap with the Falcons pick. Claiborne and Jones or Richardson and Tannehill would really go a long way to the long term stability of this team.
I don't agree with taking a QB but I view this as more likely than giving up 3 first round picks for Andrew Luck. If the Browns gave up 3 firsts, it would surpass the Hershel Walker trade as the most lopsided of all time and Ditka trading his entire draft for Ricky Williams.
The Browns would be even more of a laughingstock around the league than we already are and the NFL would force Lerner to sell the team.
I'm not sure that taking Richardson is necessary either. Taking Claiborne might be good but I'd rather look to take Chase Minnifield (yeah, Frank Minnifield's son) in the 2nd.
I'd be looking to secure the OL, maybe trading back to the early to mid-teens and taking DeCastro. Then using the second 1st round pick on a LB or DL.
With the third round pick, I'd be looking at either Levy Adcock or Nate Potter for the RT spot.
If we were able to trade back, I'd be looking to nab a WR with the additional second rounder and both of the fourth round picks.
We also get an additional sixth round pick from Denver due to the Brady Quinn trade. One of those sixth rounders could be used on Phil Dawson's replacement.
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"And with the first pick in the 2012 NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns fans select: Andrew Luck, QB, Standford"
Where the hell is Standford?
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"And with the first pick in the 2012 NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns fans select: Andrew Luck, QB, Standford"
Where the hell is Standford?
Right next to Califournia
#jokefail
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Exactly - can't remember a "king's ransom" trade that actually worked for the team giving up picks.
And that's true even though most of those players were very very good (Williams/Walker)
I think ATL is feeling pretty good about their trade last year.
The best that ATL can do is be two games back of where they finished last year, in the playoff race. They're not going to get a 1st round bye and will be playing on the road in the wild-card round if they even make the playoffs. That still remains to be worked out.
I don't think they're as happy as you might think. They should make the playoffs, but that should have been the expectation anyway. If they thought that getting Julio Jones would push them to the next step, they'll have to pull a 2010 Green Bay Packers stunt and win 3 road games to make it to the Super Bowl. Do you think they can do it? I didn't think so. I don't either.
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Andrew Luck is viewed as the next Peyton Manning.
There isn't a team in the NFL that wouldn't give up 3 first round picks for Manning at his peak, unless they have a QB named Rodgers, Brees, Brady, or Roethlisberger. (or maybe Newton and Rivers) All of the others would happily grab a great QB, and trade their current starter for the most they can get. Hell, the Bengals just got a pair of first round picks (potentially, though slipping potential) for a washed up Carson Palmer.
If your team believes that Luck is the next Peyton Manning, then 3 first rounders is a pittance. Give me a franchise QB with an average team over an above average team with a crappy QB.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Laconfora or however you spell it, has been saying that GM's around the league expect the Colts to draft luck and unload Manning.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 16,195
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 16,195 |
Quote:
Laconfora or however you spell it, has been saying that GM's around the league expect the Colts to draft luck and unload Manning.
It only makes sense since they owe him 28 million in March. Not sure who's going to jump on that contract though. They'll probably just have to release him.
#GMSTRONG
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DawgTalkers.net
Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) Atlanta and Draft Order Part III
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