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That's like saying "hey we don't HAVE to go draft LeBron James. After all, we can just get Luol Deng next year instead." He's a good player in his own right, but it's not even comparable.
The number one pick in 2003 was LeBron James, the number one pick in 2004 was Dwight Howard... not Lual Deng. So yea, I'd say it's a lot closer.
yebat' Putin
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Montana went 8-3 and then 9-5 with the KC Chiefs.
Of course, the Chiefs went 10-6 in both of the 2 seasons before Montana as well, so it wasn't all him ('91 team coached by Marty w/ Cowher at DC and Dungy/Edwards as assts).
the '93 team (first w/ Montana) featured Paul Hackett as OC and Mike McCarthy as an offensive asst.
Thanks for the info. It lends itself well to the conversation at hand, doesn't it. Apparently it's NOT all the qb.
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Hell, a qb that has 2 starts in his life threw for how many yards playing for the packers?????????? He's a super star? You mean to tell me the packers go from super star Favre, to super star Rodgers, to super star Flynn...........and the surrounding cast gets no credit????????? Honestly?
God, I hate it when arch is right
God knows we both know it. 
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I can't wait for the day when we have a legitimate superstar QB in this town. It has been so long since we have had one that people have forgotten just how much of an impact a legitimate superstar QB can have on a team.
Heck, even a good one like Bernie works for me.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
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JK
Lol good conversation. Bernie was good not elite. Elway was Elite as was Kelly and Marino (back end of his career then)
Sipe was not elite either. I have never ever seen an Elite QB here.
Now all that being said if Rodgers was here this year I would imagine that teams would have started pass alot more against us making our D look silly. As has been noted for the most part this year our D was not tested through the air and when it was I saw alot of troubles.
Its been a problem for a while they run us over and dont need to throw when we do stop the run they complete the 3rd and 20. Once they get down close our D really can shut them down but anywhere else on the field they eat us alive.
Houston make us look silly and were in doze mode for the whole 2nd half it felt.Its a chicken egg thing. While the D did good things they didnt hold leads when we had them which lead to last second FG's being important.
I would give us tops 3 wins with Rodgers as our QB given our talent level.
IF and I do mean IF Luck is the man that means we win (which a much tougher schedule this year) 7 wins next year. Thats a top 10 pick. So you think that picks 4-10-24-36-42 and perhaps more is worth 1 Player that has not played 1 single snap in the NFL? I say remember Ryan Leaf.
If you need 3 years to be a winner you got here 2 years to early. Get it done Browns.
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IF and I do mean IF Luck is the man that means we win (which a much tougher schedule this year) 7 wins next year. Thats a top 10 pick. So you think that picks 4-10-24-36-42 and perhaps more is worth 1 Player that has not played 1 single snap in the NFL? I say remember Ryan Leaf.
To be fair ... Atlanta gave up 2 firsts, a second, and 2 fourths for a WIDE RECEIVER. Would I give up 3 firsts a second and a third? Maybe - I honestly don't know. But some people are acting like it is unheard of.
Look at the Eagles. They have 10 to 12 picks it seems like every year. They end up cutting a bunch of guys because once the roster is turned over you either cut picks in camp because you have too many bodies OR you cut them the next year when you draft more guys.
Picks are great and I was all for trading down and building depth. However, I think we now need a few gamechangers and taking a chance on an elite player might be worth it as long as we trust our scouts. Otherwise, why are they employed?
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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IF and I do mean IF Luck is the man that means we win (which a much tougher schedule this year) 7 wins next year. Thats a top 10 pick. So you think that picks 4-10-24-36-42 and perhaps more is worth 1 Player that has not played 1 single snap in the NFL? I say remember Ryan Leaf.
To be fair ... Atlanta gave up 2 firsts, a second, and 2 fourths for a WIDE RECEIVER. Would I give up 3 firsts a second and a third? Maybe - I honestly don't know. But some people are acting like it is unheard of.
Look at the Eagles. They have 10 to 12 picks it seems like every year. They end up cutting a bunch of guys because once the roster is turned over you either cut picks in camp because you have too many bodies OR you cut them the next year when you draft more guys.
Picks are great and I was all for trading down and building depth. However, I think we now need a few gamechangers and taking a chance on an elite player might be worth it as long as we trust our scouts. Otherwise, why are they employed?
The Falcons did that because they felt they were 1 player away from the Super Bowl, can anyone say that about us?
Statistics are like a bikini; what they show is interesting, but what they hide is vital.
Drive for show (1st round), Putt for dough (rest of draft).
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What kind of record would the Steelers have this year without Roethlisberger?
4-12? Maybe 5-11? Their OL was beyond flat out awful. When Roethlisberger sat, the offense stalled.
What would the Colts have looked like without Mann ......
Oh never mind.
How about a playoff contender like Da Bears? Surely they could survive the loss of their QB .......
Maybe a rookie QB could improve a team like Carolina or Cincinnati? That might happen.
And how did the Browns do when their starting QB went down? Oh yeah, that's right! They went 0-3!
We could play games all day long, but I think most of the team problems on offense had to do with the coaching and receivers dropping balls.
Furthermore, in those 4 wins, McCoy engineered game winning drives in 3 of them (Miami, Seattle, Jacksonville), including a 4th quarter comeback (Miami).
On teams within our division, Flacco produced 3 game-winning drives including two 4Q comebacks. Dalton had 4 game-winning drives, all four 4Q comebacks. Roethlisberger created a single game-winning drive and it was a 4Q comeback against Indy in Week 3.
A number of 'fans' here called for Seneca Wallace to replace McCoy, even prior to his injury, and Wallace has a career record as a starter of (brace for it!) .... 6 wins, 15 losses over 9 seasons with the same (or similar schemes). To be fair, McCoy has 6 wins & 15 losses but over 2 seasons with two different schemes and two different head coaches.
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We got 2 firsts from Atlanta? Or, we got one first, a second, and a fourth? After all, we got their first for out first - that's basically a wash. Then we got their next year first, plus a second (last year?) plus a fourth.
It's not like we gave them our first, and they gave us 2 more firsts - we swapped firsts, got an extra one, plus a second and 4th.
Am I wrong?
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IF and I do mean IF Luck is the man that means we win (which a much tougher schedule this year) 7 wins next year. Thats a top 10 pick. So you think that picks 4-10-24-36-42 and perhaps more is worth 1 Player that has not played 1 single snap in the NFL? I say remember Ryan Leaf.
To be fair ... Atlanta gave up 2 firsts, a second, and 2 fourths for a WIDE RECEIVER. Would I give up 3 firsts a second and a third? Maybe - I honestly don't know. But some people are acting like it is unheard of.
Look at the Eagles. They have 10 to 12 picks it seems like every year. They end up cutting a bunch of guys because once the roster is turned over you either cut picks in camp because you have too many bodies OR you cut them the next year when you draft more guys.
Picks are great and I was all for trading down and building depth. However, I think we now need a few gamechangers and taking a chance on an elite player might be worth it as long as we trust our scouts. Otherwise, why are they employed?
According to the draft value chart their picks were worth:
27th - 680
59th - 310
124th - 48
This year we'll guess a bit
22nd - 780
118th - 58
Total 1876
for the 6th spot last year at 1600
Certainly a good deal for us as we're + 276
To move up to 1st to get Luck you're proposing:
4th - 1800
22nd - 780 (making same position assumption as Atlanta assumpition)
36th - 540
68th - 250
16th - 1000 (assuming the middle of the 1st as we do better next year)
Total - 4370
For pick #1 at 3000
We lose by 1370.
Thanks but not in this lifetime.
#GMSTRONG
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You think that Luck is under the micro scope now ... then wait and see how much more that becomes focused on if there is a mega trade for his services.
That's why the best thing that could happen to Luck if for him to go to indy, sit behind Manning for a year or two and learn.. There is virtually NO Pressure to that for him..
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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To be fair ... Atlanta gave up 2 firsts, a second, and 2 fourths for a WIDE RECEIVER. Would I give up 3 firsts a second and a third? Maybe - I honestly don't know. But some people are acting like it is unheard of.
And to be fair, Atlanta had to move up several spots, not 3.
How does a league celebrating its 100th season only recognize the 53 most recent championships?
#gmstrong
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We got 2 firsts from Atlanta? Or, we got one first, a second, and a fourth? After all, we got their first for out first - that's basically a wash. Then we got their next year first, plus a second (last year?) plus a fourth.
It's not like we gave them our first, and they gave us 2 more firsts - we swapped firsts, got an extra one, plus a second and 4th.
Am I wrong?
Yes.
You are wrong. I said exactly what I said. Atlanta gave up those picks to draft Julio. They gave up a pair of firsts, a second, and a fourth and overall they walked away with one player.
They didn't "net" a pick ... I mean you could say that they did but they then turned around and spent it on him. So yes, they traded 2 firsts, a second and a third for a single wide receiver.
With that in perspective, trading 3 firsts and a second for a franchise quarterback (or the for the pick that we use to select a franchise QB) isn't so bad.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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You can't go by the draft value chart from year to year.
Aside from the fact that any pick this year isn't worth the same next year (same thing as time value of money and inflation) ... you also can't assume where we will be picking.
However - just to be fair - I have never been a believer in the draft chart. I also don't understand why so many of you guys look at something that ESPN found that one organization used ... what was it ... two decades ago? And it also doesn't include the premium for different positions and classes as well as the new rookie scale.
But anyways ... you could look at it in multiple ways where the draft chart doesn't make sense and could also find a decent amount of examples where you care more about getting a certain player than about staying true to some arbitrary slotting system of numbers.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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If you have a more rational way to value picks, I'm open to hear it.
#GMSTRONG
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For all we know those picks may be used by our regime to draft more studs like Veikune or Robiske, so I'd rather get the "sure" thing.
Joker, C'mon man. That was not our current Regime. I had to stop reading thte rest of your post after that.
"He who buys what he does not need steals from himself."
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The Falcons did that because they felt they were 1 player away from the Super Bowl, can anyone say that about us?
Some seem to think so.
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I think that the more rational way is by taking complete evalutions of players in any given year and then slotting them based upon a team's rank. Include as many tangibles and intangibles as possible. Then value the pick itself based upon what it can net you in a given year. The reason why it doesn't work is because it isn't an "easy" way to make a trade. I doubt that hardly any (if any at all) use a chart just like this one just because of different philosophies within organizations. You also have to consider the fact that some teams might "inflate" or "deflate" a draft class in a given year depending on the makeup of their team (think Jerry Jones a year or two ago when he basically traded out of the draft entirely). Maybe an older team with a bunch of young veterans doesn't need as much depth so they deflate the value of later rounders because those guys won't make the team versus a team like us who levels it off because 3 or 4 picks in round 6 or 7 means a guy that could pan out plus a few special teamers. Plus, aside from all of that, how does the first pick overall equal the first pick in any other year? Is Sam Bradford (supposedly) the same value as Jake Long was? Does Andrew Luck equal the same potential value as Alex Smith? When a prospect has less questions then he is worth more. When he plays the more covetous position, he is worth more. No way does a first round RB ... no matter how good ... equal the same "point value" as a top 10 potential QB. Finally ... we have even talked about it in the threads, this sort of chart assumes that there is an almost constant decrease in value. I can't accept that. This year some have said the dropoff in this class from potential elite prospects ends at about 5 or 6. But according to the chart we would assume that the drop from 4 to 5 is the same as the drop from 5 to 6.... even though it doesn't make sense. So while I understand that the draft chart is used as a tool, I question not only it's validity in practice but also whether or not any single chart from (was it the early 90's chart that is commonly referenced?) two decades ago is A. the same, B. Not updated annually, and C. not numbered differently to different teams depending upon their makeup. In short: The draft chart is a cute reference, but I doubt that every GM has a copy of that sitting in their war room ... However - just my opinion on the matter
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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But that leaves you wide open to pick based on perceptions and emotions that while I agree does happen in the NFL really has no place in business and this is after all, just a business. I think it's used more as a baseline, a jumping off point that allows some variance but not the likes we're talking about with 3 1sts and a 2nd for one guy. Now certainly a Jones or a Davis might make such a leap as rational decisions were never the norm for those guys but it's the exception. That's just my opinion though.
#GMSTRONG
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To be fair ... Atlanta gave up 2 firsts, a second, and 2 fourths for a WIDE RECEIVER. Would I give up 3 firsts a second and a third? Maybe - I honestly don't know. But some people are acting like it is unheard of.
And to be fair, Atlanta had to move up several spots, not 3.
This is the Key Atlanta gave us what the 26th pick in the first round plus now probalby the 24-27th pick in the first round and equally lower picks in the 4th round.
We are talking about the 4th pick in this draft the 24-27 pick in this draft most likely the 10th pick in next years draft plus extras to move up 3 COUNT EM 3 SPOTS???
Im sorry I want no part of that. If Im picking 26th and think I need 1 key guy then yeah look over the choice some are talking about.
#1> (4--24-36-this year and 10-42 next year)
If you need 3 years to be a winner you got here 2 years to early. Get it done Browns.
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I'm with YTown, Dayton, and PStu24....If you can get Luck, pay the price. I'm OK giving up 2 extra firsts although as some other posters mentioned, would be much more comfortable with just this years draft.
I'm done experimenting with these half-talent QBs who can't challenge defenses like Pitts or Baltimore with their noodle arms.
I wouldn't trade up for Griffin at this point, but would hope he falls if we can't get Luck
I'm coming home, I'm coming home, tell the world I'm coming home
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everyone was okay giving up next year's first for Brady Quinn too... until he didnt pan out to be the "Golden Boy".... then everyone bashed the decision to do it.
Don't give up all that for ONE guy.
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I was fine with it then and I'm fine with it now....Unfortunately, they made the wrong call. I'd also hardly compare Quinn and Luck
I'm coming home, I'm coming home, tell the world I'm coming home
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I was fine with it then and I'm fine with it now....Unfortunately, they made the wrong call. I'd also hardly compare Quinn and Luck
Funny thing is I didnt really like the trade but was fine with it as well but who did dallas draft with our pick the next year ( I really dont remember)? We got hillis for Quinn so we made out on that end which is the only reason im still fine with it.
Quinn showed some flashes but with our team it was never meant to be here and another 1st RD QB went down in flames.
If you need 3 years to be a winner you got here 2 years to early. Get it done Browns.
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Legend
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Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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I was fine with it then and I'm fine with it now....Unfortunately, they made the wrong call. I'd also hardly compare Quinn and Luck
Well there were plenty of people touting him just the same. He was the next Great QB according to some and you were an idiot and clueless if you didn't believe them and publicly scorned and ridiculed. Pro system, pro ready with Charlie Weiss thumbs up to Romeo Crennel.
I guess you could compare Luck and Quinn in that sense. That Harbaugh (Lucks college Coach) went to SF and made Alex Smith look decent after so long being labled a bust. Weiss made Quinn look decent and came out and busted as did Clausen. Not Only that but they wanted to use our first pick on him..Thank God these QB Guru Posters don't run the draft or we would have No JT!!  Just saying.
Last edited by LOYALDAWG; 01/04/12 11:46 PM.
"Going from 4-12 to 6-10 isn't good enough. I believe we are going to be better than that. We're going to be a lot better than that." - Mike Holmgren (3/15/12)
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It's not so much about emoitions ... it's about selection methods. You need to see individuals as what they are ... individuals. Even if you could find a rating system for every player, they will not be the same player in different scenarios and systems. Andrew Luck going to the Colts will have a much different career path and story than any other team. You also need to remember that it's not so much "perceptions/emotions" as it is first coming up with your own scouting standards (and every team values different scouts as well as types of players). They all have their own grading sheets and methods. They all have their own tendencies for trading and value placed upon different picks. So why do we assume that a first round pick X = 2nd rounder Y + third rounder Z for any two teams in the same way, let alone all 32. And that also would only be a "starting" point and not just the overall accepted value. After all, what team makes a trade for "equal" value? My point isn't that you are wrong, it's that there is no way to "dumb it up." Some guys spend entire careers on talent evaluations and understanding the draft. I have the feeling that those who simplify it and turn it into a science are going to fail. Those who only go on their gut will fail. But it is a combination of laying the framework and having your principles ... and THEN understanding that a grading number or a point value can't tell you what your eyeballs can. That's why I think the draft chart is a joke. Now mind you, I'm not advocating taking any QB... I haven't even made up my mind yet and I am back and forth every day. BUT for someone to tell me that we CAN'T trade a few picks just because the value isn't right ... let me simplify it for you. What are you willing to do in order to bring the franchise QB into your team whether it be Luck or Griffin? And as a caveat ... if our talent evaluators and scouts don't feel comfortable then we don't do it. But if THEY think that Luck or Griffin are the real guys and we PASS on them...? Then why? We need to trust the scouts. That's why we have them. If we draft Griffin and he gets hit in the eye with a flag and never plays again ... or we draft Luck and he goes Ricky Williams ... nothing we can do about it. But I would much rather act upon trust of the scouting department and try to get a real franchise QB IF THEY SAY that one of those guys are one and maybe even overpay a little ... then say "well we passed up on a guy who we are confident will be a hall of fame quarterback ... but at least we saved a few points on an arbitrary draft value chart that is twenty years outdated..."
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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But that's not entirely fair. It's not the decision, it's the pick they were mad at or rather the outcome.
Just like Gini's trade's weren't bad if we would have hit on them.
If we would have traded up and a first rounder next year into the early / mid 20's and the guy would have been Freeman or Rodgers then it would have been a great deal.
Blame the talent (or lack of) in the front office ... not the move to try and secure a franchise QB.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things."
@pstu24
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Felix Jones.
Thanks for that. Just looked him up and I guess we really didnt get fleeced that bad but Dallas made a bad pick there as well,considering Mendenhall and C Johnson went right after him.Dallas drafted Mike Jenkins after those 2 wonder how they would have looked in a Browns uniform.
So we can assume that with a late 1st round pick there are some decent players to be had, just need to find them. :-)
If you need 3 years to be a winner you got here 2 years to early. Get it done Browns.
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Felix Jones.
Thanks for that. Just looked him up and I guess we really didnt get fleeced that bad but Dallas made a bad pick there as well,considering Mendenhall and C Johnson went right after him.Dallas drafted Mike Jenkins after those 2 wonder how they would have looked in a Browns uniform.
So we can assume that with a late 1st round pick there are some decent players to be had, just need to find them. :-)
Or you could have had Ray Rice or Desean Jackson in the next round. 
"Going from 4-12 to 6-10 isn't good enough. I believe we are going to be better than that. We're going to be a lot better than that." - Mike Holmgren (3/15/12)
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But that's not entirely fair. It's not the decision, it's the pick they were mad at or rather the outcome.
Just like Gini's trade's weren't bad if we would have hit on them.
If we would have traded up and a first rounder next year into the early / mid 20's and the guy would have been Freeman or Rodgers then it would have been a great deal.
Blame the talent (or lack of) in the front office ... not the move to try and secure a franchise QB.
Very true alot were ready killing Mangini for letting sanchez go but in hind sight it may have been the right move. Now he didnt do anything with the picks sadly but he was correct in passing but when MS was going to AFC championship games alot of people were all over we missed our Frachise QB.
If you need 3 years to be a winner you got here 2 years to early. Get it done Browns.
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So with the falcons loss and broncos win... Where do we pick now?
![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/captainphil/browns bills sig 5.jpg) When it gets cold and snows and the wind blows, you gotta be able to run the ball. - TR
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 8,528 Likes: 6 |
Browns have now secured the #22 spot thanks to the Giants win over the Falcons.
#4.
#22.
Gonna be a fun draft day.
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Joined: May 2007
Posts: 560
All Pro
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All Pro
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 560 |
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So with the falcons loss and broncos win... Where do we pick now?
According to Tony Grossi (tweet) we will pick 23rd. According to everyone else including Nate Ulrich we will pick 22nd. Either way the Broncos helped us and knocked off the Steelers.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 11,465
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 11,465 |
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Quote:
But that's not entirely fair. It's not the decision, it's the pick they were mad at or rather the outcome.
Just like Gini's trade's weren't bad if we would have hit on them.
If we would have traded up and a first rounder next year into the early / mid 20's and the guy would have been Freeman or Rodgers then it would have been a great deal.
Blame the talent (or lack of) in the front office ... not the move to try and secure a franchise QB.
Very true alot were ready killing Mangini for letting sanchez go but in hind sight it may have been the right move. Now he didnt do anything with the picks sadly but he was correct in passing but when MS was going to AFC championship games alot of people were all over we missed our Frachise QB.
I was never a Sanchez fan, and never had a problem with letting someone else take him.
What I did and do have a problem with was what we let the pick go for.
We had the #5 pick in the draft, and moved down to #21. What did we get for it? Mack, who was the pick itself ... David Veikune, James Davis, Coye Francis, Kenyon Coleman, Brett Ratliff and Abe Elam.
We gave the the #5 for a second rounder and some peanuts, and slid down further twice, both times for a sixth round pick. We essentially went from 5 to 21 for a second, two sixths, a third string QB, an aging veteran DL and an average-at-best FS.
I've never been more angry with any Browns management than with the draft. Those moves makes Butch's draft idiocy seem sensible.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 6,098 Likes: 294
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 6,098 Likes: 294 |
Quote:
Browns have now secured the #22 spot thanks to the Giants win over the Falcons.
#4.
#22.
and Denver beating the Steelers...if the Steelers won they would have picked 23rd
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 7,234
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 7,234 |
Quote:
Browns have now secured the #22 spot thanks to the Giants win over the Falcons.
#4.
#22.
Gonna be a fun draft day.
Is the 4th round set for us?
And do we know where Cinci drafts in the first?
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,316
Dawg Talker
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Dawg Talker
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,316 |
Cinci has 17 and 21
here's the updated draft slots
Pick Team
1 Indianapolis
2 St. Louis
3 Minnesota
4 Cleveland
5 Tampa Bay
6 Washington
7 Jacksonville
8 Carolina
9 Miami
10 Buffalo
11 Seattle
12 Kansas City
13 Dallas
14 Arizona
15 Philadelphia
16 NY Jets
17 Cincinnati (from Oakland)
18 San Diego
19 Chicago
20 Tennessee
21 Cincinnati
22 Cleveland (from Atlanta)
23 Detroit
24 Pittsburgh
I'm coming home, I'm coming home, tell the world I'm coming home
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,459 Likes: 32
Dawg Talker
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Dawg Talker
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,459 Likes: 32 |
Hah, I think you guys got it. Guess I can't get some work done on a Sunday night or else I end up asleep at the wheel updating this . Anyway, we're #4 and #22 after tonights games. Spots 1-24 are now locked in (minus the two coin flips). 
![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/GraffZ06/browns_factory_sig.jpg) Fear us, for we are the BROWNS, led by the mighty BM! Only in Cleveland.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 7,135 Likes: 223
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 7,135 Likes: 223 |
Do we pick 4th in each round? Or does that pick flip-flop by round due to record? Or does that flip-flop occur ONLY when there is a coin flip to decide the 1st round draft order?
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DawgTalkers.net
Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) Atlanta and Draft Order Part V
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