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Around the NFL: Best decision for Browns could be moving down


By Steve Doerschuk
CantonRep.com staff writer
Posted Jan 14, 2012 @ 11:41 PM

Those who know Tom Heckert have no doubt he isn’t bluffing when he says he MIGHT trade out of the Browns’ No. 4 spot in the first round.

Here’s what he says by way of warning any anti-trade contingent:

“In a perfect world, we would stay at 4, but it’s not a perfect world. If we think we can get the same guy by moving down a few spots getting an extra pick or picks, why not do that?”

That’s a debatable topic, to be sure.

If, say, one wanted the best receiver in the 2011 draft and was sitting at No. 4, one would have had to stay at 4. The Bengals did and got A.J. Green.

Heckert traded out of the No. 6 spot because the Falcons wanted the second-best receiver, Julio Jones. There was and is a difference. Green is better than Jones.

On the other hand, there are plenty of examples in which a player drafted several spots after No. 4 was a better value than the one actually picked there. Some of those:

2009:

No. 4 pick: Linebacker Aaron Curry, Seahawks

No. 13 pick: Linebacker Brian Orakpo, Chiefs

2007

No. 4 pick: Defensive end Gaines Adams, Bucs

No. 11 pick: Linebacker Patrick Willis, 49ers

2006

No. 4 pick: Left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Jets

No. 12 pick: Defensive lineman Haloti Ngata, Ravens

2005

No. 4 pick: Running back Cedric Benson, Bears

No. 11 pick: Defensive end DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys

2003

No. 4: Defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson, Jets

No. 10: Defensive end Terrell Suggs, Ravens

2002

No. 4 pick: Offensive tackle Mike Williams, Bills

No. 11 pick: Defensive end Dwight Freeney, Colts

In each of these cases, we would argue that the later pick became a better player, signed at a lower price. The only instance in which it is even close is Ferguson vs. Ngata.

Most recent No. 4 overall picks have not become great players. A few have been busts.

In 2000, for example, the Bengals spent a No. 4 pick on “can’t miss” wideout Peter Warrick. Seattle’s second-year czar, Mike Holmgren, drafted running back Shaun Alexander at No. 19.

Alexander was NFL MVP in 2005, the season in which Seattle clobbered Carolina 34-14 in the NFC championship game.

Hindsight, of course, is 20-20. The Browns can only hope that Heckert possesses 20-20 foresight.

HECKERT HISTORY LESSONS

Browns General Manager Tom Heckert has worked for Don Shula, Jimmy Johnson, Andy Reid and Mike Holmgren.

He has been in the NFL since 1991, the year Bill Belichick became a head coach in Cleveland.

He is 44 years old.

In one important sense, though, he is a rookie. The general manager of the Browns has never been in control of a draft pick anywhere close to as high as the one he is sitting on now.

Before joining the Browns in 2010, Heckert spent nine years in a position of power with Reid’s Eagles. Philadelphia gained a nice reputation for overall draft success, but the Eagles weren’t great with their first picks — not the way the Browns need Heckert to be at the four-spot.

A look at Philadelphia’s top picks when he was there:

2001: WR Freddie Mitchell, UCLA No. 25

2002: CB Lito Sheppard, Florida, No. 26

2003: DE Jerome McDougle, Miami (Fla.), No. 15

2004: OT Shawn Andrews, Arkansas, No. 16

2005: DT Mike Patterson, USC, No. 31

2006: DT Brodrick Bunkley, Florida State, No. 14

2007: QB Kevin Kolb, Houston, No. 36

2008: DT Trevor Laws, Notre Dame, No. 47

2009: WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri, No. 19

Some of them hit some serious speed bumps. None became a great player.

Mitchell was out of the league after four years. McDougle missed the 2005 season with a gunshot wound. Andrews made a couple of Pro Bowls but fell victim to bouts with depression.

BUNKLEY GOODBYE

In August, Heckert danced around questions about a trade that would have brought defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley to the Browns for a fifth-round draft pick, but never came off.

The deal made a lot of sense. The Browns were thin on the defensive line, and Heckert had been the Eagles GM who drafted Bunkley one spot after the Browns took Kamerion Wimbley at No. 13 overall in 2006.

Rumblings that Bunkley’s health foiled the trade don’t add up. He landed in Denver, played in all 16 regular-season games, and sacked Ben Roethlisberger in last week’s playoff win.

Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins of the Patriots said this week: “He’s a load.”

Scott Paxson can’t be too sorry the Browns didn’t sign Bunkley. After knocking around for five years with the Steelers but getting in only one game, Paxson played in all 16 games with the Browns as an extra tackle. He probably wouldn’t have made the Browns’ roster if Bunkley, Phil Taylor and Ahtyba Rubin had been the three men in the tackle rotation.

EXTRA POINTS

• All of the talk about the Giants’ ferocious defense is tinged with Big Apple hype. New York may have turned Atlanta’s Matt Ryan into crushed ice, but the Giants ranked 27th in regular-season defense in allowing 376.4 yards a game. The Browns gave up 332.4 yards a game.

The Giants gave up 36 points in a home loss to Seattle on Oct. 9. Granted, the Seahawks were dealing with key injuries when they went to Cleveland two weeks later, but the fact remains, they lost to the Browns, 6-3.

• According to a survey group called Poll Position, 43 percent of Americans believe divine intervention is involved in the Tim Tebow story.

• Pro Football Weekly’s Nolan Nawrocki ranks the seniors entering the April draft. The top Ohio State player is center Mike Brewster at No. 47. The top-ranked Ohio college player is Miami tackle Brandon Brooks at No. 27.

Nawrocki’s top senior quarterbacks are Stanford’s Andrew Luck at No. 1 overall, Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill at No. 20, Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden at No. 40 and Michigan State’s Kirk Cousins at No. 49.
web page

I love those terrible "analyses" where they show that there was somebody picked after the #4 pick who was better in almost every single draft - like the GM's option is "#4 or all the picks after him"

And each draft/player is unique.

I really hate these "This pick has sucked in the past so we shouldn't pick here" nonsense.

Just because certain players taken at 4 have been surpassed by other players taken later does not mean that this will be the case in the future.

If this wasn't the case, then we would pass when #4 rolled around so we wouldn't have to take a cursed player at 4 ...... and because no team would trade for such a cursed pick.

Yea that stuff is silly but I believe the stage is being set for a trade down. I think Heckert sent out the message early last year that our pick was very available. I see the same thing this year.


Personaly, I think he wants Richardson but doesnt want to take him that high and he knows there will be several teams wanting to get to that spot for one of the big names int his draft.

This thread is beyond ridiculous, there is almost always an instance of someone picked later than the current pick that turns out to be better just based off of luck.

There is also this thing called scouting, maybe the Browns should do that better.

Someone tell Brian Orakpo that he's been reporting to the wrong team the past couple seasons.

Could have, would have, should have, this is the mantra for every second guessing thread that has existed for the past 30 years. When a player busts, you often look at who was drafted behind.

No, the challenge has and always has been to hit on your player selection, and make each and every team think how they would have been bettered if they had selected your player instead.

So far, I am happy with the job H&H have done, I look for improvement next year.

2012:

No. 4 pick: Morris Claiborne, Cowboy's

No. 14 pick: , Vontaze Burfict, Browns

Or

No.4 pick: Trent Richardson, Bengals

No. 17 pick: Vontaze Burfict, Browns
No. 21 pick: Alshon Jeffrey, Browns
No. 22 pick: Lamar Miller, Browns

I don't value him that much, from what I saw of him, he gets blocked way to easy at the college level, and has a temper that gets him in more trouble than he'd be worht...

Maybe bringing him in with solid vets like DQ and Gocong already in place would be good for him.

He's got the speed and FORCE that I think we need.

I wouldn't be upset if we drafted him. I just think he's very boom/bust and those guys usually don't do well on losing teams. Especially if they have history of attitude problems.

Hadn't heard about the firing of the refs though, that's weird.

Meanest Man in College Football/ official Firings reference

Was he one of the refs?

Thanks. Interesting reads.

Has anyone else heard Trent Richardson speak.

Oi vey!

What's that joke...i'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy?

Wow, that first one had to be one of the whiniest pieces I have ever read, trying to excuse away stupid play.


Obviously the kid has talent. Whether or not he can harness and control that talent so that he can stay on the field, or whether he winds up the weekly winner of the Commissioner's suspension award for illegal violent hits is to be seen.

I didn't write it. Considering it was from a first hand witness of the situation and most of the quotes were from Dennis Erikson, whom everyone that was bashing Burfict before held in high regards I thought it was fitting.

Yes, Burfict is a highly aggressive killing machine of a linebacker. But he has many flaws. Yes, one Pac-12 crew had a bone to pick with him (for whatever reason), but what made his coach bench him? I'm pretty sure it wasn't the referees. He lacks discipline.

With all that said, I would love to have him on this team. But he has to get into better shape (he appears to be a little doughy).

I also wouldn't take him anywhere near our first pick and probably not our second pick for a few of reasons.

#1 - He lacks discipline.
#2 - There will probably be players that are ranked higher or equal to him at positions of need when we are drafting. (We don't really need a middle linebacker).
#3 - Linebacker is one of the easier positions to fill. (There are many linebackers that are drafted in the middle rounds that end up playing successfully, i.e. Colin McCarthy, Mason Foster, K.J. Wright, Brian Rolle, Jamar Cheney, etc.)
#4 - There are players like Travis Lewis, Lavonte David, and Sean Spence who may have lower ceilings, but also have lower probability of busting. (And there ceilings still aren't that low).

If we draft Burfict in the 2nd round I will not be upset, but I also don't think it will happen. I think he is destined for a team like the Ravens, Steelers, or Patriots. Teams that have a strong veteran core and a system in place where they can take players like Burfict and not expect immediate results. Right now we need players that can get on the field and play well immediately and I don't think Burfict is that guy.

LOL It's almost as if he's saying that the #4 pick in the draft is jinxed or something.....

Bucs will go Claiborne or Kirkpatrick. Kirkpatrick is a really good fit for their Tampa 2.

Inside information? It is awful early to know anything right now. We don't even know who their head coach is, what if they hire Marty Schottenheimer (who they have interviewed)? Something tells me they won't be running the Tampa 2 if he is hired.

Vontaze was essentially a pit bull on a leash this year.

He is incredibly aggressive and fearless. However that is also his biggest weakness.

I wouldn't get too worked up over whos Inside and whos Out, neither DQ or VB are the Willis/Lewis type of MLB..

I know how much we need on owfense, but if we came out of this draft with..

#4 DE Quinton Coples (UNC)
#22 LB Vontez Burfict (ASU)
#37 CB Chase Minnefield (Va)
#68 S Markelle Martin (Ok St)

How good could our Defense be in a year or too?

...excuse me, I need to clean up this drool...

Quote:

---

#4 DE Quinton Coples (UNC)
#22 LB Vontez Burfict (ASU)
#37 CB Chase Minnefield (Va)
#68 S Markelle Martin (Ok St)

How good could our Defense be in a year or too?

...excuse me, I need to clean up this drool...

---

I'd be pretty pissed if this was our draft. Find someone else with that number 4 pick and we're doing better. But throwing in Coples as our number 4 pick is just a terrible choice. Watching that guy, I was very unimpressed.

I'd rather trade down if that's your plan, get myself a better DE and come out with another pick to spend. The guy's just not that good at DE. Not 4-3 DE at least. May be 3-4 DE or a DT. But from what I watched, I wasn't very impressed at all.

But who knows, may be he's a potential guy like Mario Williams and Pierre Paul were

I am not a "draft expert" but it seems like Coples draft stock is plummeting. I wouldn't be surprised if Nick Perry and Whitney Mercilus are both taken before him on draft day.

DE is a weird position, I had literally never heard of Mario Williams before he was drafted #1 overalll.

Bowers last year was the #1 overall pick at the end of the season, but he dropped (rightfully) to the middle of the second round...

Maybe we take Claiborne, and swap Minnifield for a D, I dunno, I was just illustrating a draft idea on how we could possibly solidify our Defense for years with this one draft (assuming everyone works out of course)

Mario Williams was a sure fire Top 5 guy at NC State and was a lethal tandem with Manny Lawson.

Those two guys looked like 6'8 small forwards on steroids. They towered over teams and just flat dominated.

There was also a pretty good DT on that team. Can't remember who that was but that was a fun team to watch. I tuned in whenever I could.

Agreed. Just like the stocks and mutual funds warning: "Past results are not a guarantee of future performance." Trying to say this draft is similar to others, whether busts or stars, is garbage. Pass on a four trade to go down AND miss good guys is a killer. I trust Heckert, but only so far. How far tyou drop and at what price are crucial to us.

John mccargo was the guy drafted in the first by buffalo. He was a total bust in the NFL. Count me in as one of the big Lawson pimps. Swing and a miss. Didn't transition well to OLB.

That's it! No wonder I forgot who he was.