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I have heard it will take at least first and second round pick this year and then a first round pick next year to move up to take RGIII.
unless noone wants to pay that much, then it will take less 
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I am of the opinion that if you don't have a franchise QB, and you are in position to get one, you get him. We do not have a franchise QB. We are in position to get one.
I don't know too many people that would disagree with that.. it comes down to how sure you are that RGIII is one. Obviously nobody ever knows for sure but if you are as certain as you can be that RGIII is that guy, then go get him.. we can make up for the other draft picks in other ways over the next couple years to put guys around him.. I'm less worried about that than most... But you absolutely positively do not give up a single thing unless you have achieved that level of certainty that RGIII is that guy because if you give up the picks and get it wrong.. then we are all screwed for years to come.
But I look at "being in position" as something more than where you are in the draft.
If you have no talent to surround the guy, and you have to give up a bunch of picks to get him, then I don't call that "being in a position" to make that move.
JMO
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If that's the price someone will pay it.
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Some people on here confuse me, because at one point they say things like Colt should get another year, but also, that if Luck was there at 4 they would take him..? Who do they think is going to start next season?
They say this because they do not want RGIII. They would love to have Luck because he is as close as you get to a sure thing in the draft. If they can't have him they want to stay with Colt.
I don't think that is too ridiculous. Or even ridiculous at all.
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if you give up the picks and get it wrong.. then we are all screwed for years to come.
That's the thing that gets lost between fans and the people who's livelihood that is on the line to get it right.
And you have some (peen) who think heads should roll if we do not get in the game to move up and pass an opportunity to get Griffen and we flop next year with McCoy or another.
So it's a double edged sword for Holmgren and CO.
It's much easier for us to play the part of GM.
And let's not forget that our 22nd selection is married to last years trade and is not a mer after though.
Taylor and Little seems like a pretty good deal already, but Julio Jones could prove to be the next TO and our's may or may not progress, so the jury is still open on that deal imo.
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If that's the price someone will pay it.
i don't know. maybe washington would be willing to pay that. if so, then i am fine letting them have RGIII. but, I don't think it's a slam dunk that they want to pay that hefty of a price.
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Some people on here confuse me, because at one point they say things like Colt should get another year, but also, that if Luck was there at 4 they would take him..? Who do they think is going to start next season?
They say this because they do not want RGIII. They would love to have Luck because he is as close as you get to a sure thing in the draft. If they can't have him they want to stay with Colt.
I don't think that is too ridiculous. Or even ridiculous at all.
I suppose some feel that way. I got nothing against RG3.. nothing at all.
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You have nothing against RGIII as the fourth pick. He is going to be the second pick.
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If that's the price someone will pay it.
i don't know. maybe washington would be willing to pay that. if so, then i am fine letting them have RGIII. but, I don't think it's a slam dunk that they want to pay that hefty of a price.
If there is one team who doesn't mind giving away draft picks and making a big splash in FA ... I think it would be the Redskins.
I just know that there are not presently enough FA QB to satisfy the need for QB's.
If we knew for sure that Manning will ever play again, the that would surly help our cause.
That's why I think that all 3 of the top QB's will be off the board after Seattle has made their selection, perhaps sooner (#8 Miami) depending on who gets Matt Flynn.
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You have nothing against RGIII as the fourth pick. He is going to be the second pick.
That's the way the cookie crumbles.. I wish him and the team that traded the future on the "if come" to get him all the best.
In the mean time, we'll go out, get some players that improve weak spots, give the offense time to learn the system (something they didn't have last year) and see where we are then.
That's ME saying that. I have no idea what the folks in Berea feel.. THey are the pros, so if they go for him at 2, so be it. Hope they are right.
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You have nothing against RGIII as the fourth pick. He is going to be the second pick.
Who's to say that the Redskins won't like their option to stay at 6 and take Tannehill?
Say for argument sake Miami lands Matt Flynn and removes them self from the discussion. They would feel pretty good about their chance to land one of the top 3 QB's if they stay at 6.
That is why I see Seattle as a dark horse in the game, although I think that they will have to really sweeten the pot to move up, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities.
If they lose out on Flynn then they might feel a little desperate in their current draft position to get one of the top 3 QB's.
I don't think even if Manning is good to go, that he will go to a Seattle team.
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It might take both of our 1st rounders. I dunno. That would be a really huge price to pay, but if they believe that RG3 is a franchise guy, it's not that big a price to pay.
YT...I agree, the Browns trading away they #4 pick in the first round and #22 pick in the first round (or next years #1) plus a lower round pick, is a HUGE PRICE to pay, especially for a team that is trying to rebuild at nearly every position on offense and defense.
Another basic question that must be answered...what is RGIII's "bust factor"?
..the percentage of/for success/failure of the 2nd best QB picked in the draft?
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It might take both of our 1st rounders. I dunno. That would be a really huge price to pay, but if they believe that RG3 is a franchise guy, it's not that big a price to pay.
YT...I agree, the Browns trading away they #4 pick in the first round and #22 pick in the first round (or next years #1) plus a lower round pick, is a HUGE PRICE to pay, especially for a team that is trying to rebuild at nearly every position on offense and defense.
Another basic question that must be answered...what is RGIII's "bust factor"?
..the percentage of/for success/failure of the 2nd best QB picked in the draft?
I think that we also have to consider, that if we think that we simply need a system QB is that too high of a price to pay for our needs.
Not all systems think that the QB makes the system. It's a different philosophy, but it is the mind set of some systems and some Coach's in the League just the same.
Weather we agree with that or not is irrelevant.
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Another basic question that must be answered...what is RGIII's "bust factor"?
Well, I think that he stands a strong chance of being a highly successful QB, with superstar potential. I think that he can add 10-15# to his frame, and I think that he'll come in at a legitimate 6'2". Those are really the 2 major concerns people have about him. He came from a shotgun/spread offense. Many QBs have. Colt McCoy did. I don't think that that, alone, is a determining factor.
I do believe that RG3 has all of the attributes you look for in a QB on the field. he is accurate, and has superior ball placement. He has excellent pocket awareness. he knows how to float in the pocket, as opposed to running for his life at the first sign of pressure. He is a smart kid.
Plus, he aces the 26/27/60 rule for drafting a QB.
Given his intelligence and double degrees already, a 26 on the Wonderlik is a given. He has 40 college starts, which blows away the 27 called for in the "rule". He completed 67% of his passes in college, which blows away the 60%. He might not have the pure physical talent of Cam Newton, but I think that he has more football savvy, and I believe that he will be a superstar.
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..the percentage of/for success/failure of the 2nd best QB picked in the draft?
Irrelevant. No 2 QBs, drafts, or situations are the same. In 1999, we held the 1st pick in the draft and took Tim Couch. The Eagles too McNabb. The Bengals took Akili Smith. Who got the better deal?
Roethlisberger was an 11th overall pick. Dan Marino was what .... 27th or 28th? He was also the 4th or 5th QB taken in the 1st round?
Every draft makes its own rules because every draft has entirely different players.
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That is why I see Seattle as a dark horse in the game, although I think that they will have to really sweeten the pot to move up, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities.
I would expect to see Seattle try to move down for a future 1 before trading up and giving away future picks... Barkley is going to be in the draft next year.
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That is why I see Seattle as a dark horse in the game, although I think that they will have to really sweeten the pot to move up, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities.
I would expect to see Seattle try to move down for a future 1 before trading up and giving away future picks... Barkley is going to be in the draft next year.
Perhaps ... If that is their mind set, but if they lose out on Matt Flynn, then they could be left out of the dance this year for a QB.
Tannehill would be a long shot to fall to them, with both Washington and Miami selecting before they do, but if he happens to, then I don't think that they will wait for next year to take a QB in the Draft.
The way I see it is (if) they feel like they need to get a new QB this year, then they might not be in the best position in the Draft to do so, unless they think that they can develop a later round pick, they might have to trade up.
I think that they don't what to wait until next year and put their hopes on getting possibly the top QB in 2113. Unless they go O for then the odds are against that.
Not all teams trade the #1 pick (assuming for argument sake that he will be).
I also think that they might heavily pursue Matt Flynn and if they do land him, then the chance that either Miami or Washington tries to trade up increases I think.
Best case scenario is as follows;
Griffen to us at 4.
Tannehill to Washington at 6.
Matt Flynn signs with Miami and they are out of the discussion at 8.
This would be the worst case scenario for Seattle however.
Last edited by FL_Dawg; 02/13/12 03:31 PM.
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i hope Seattle takes Tannehill. that way we don't have to worry about taking him at #22.
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well if we take RGIII at 4, we won't have to worry about taking Tannehill anyway, right? 
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never rule out the possibility 
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i hope Seattle takes Tannehill. that way we don't have to worry about taking him at #22.
I see his draft range as probable from 6-12, 19 (the Bears) I think is his maximum assent.
So I haven't really considered him with the 22nd pick assuming we don't pick Griffen at 4 or trade down.
If we don't trade that pick away, then I'm thinking we will take a CB or DE in that range possibly a WR, but like I said, I don't think Tannehill will fall that far in this Draft.
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you think the Bears would take a backup QB to Cutler in the 1st round?
I think they need OL, WR, and some key defensive spots before they consider that. yeah, they need a backup QB, but I'm thinking they go Nick Foles or take a flier on Osweiler late.
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you think the Bears would take a backup QB to Cutler in the 1st round?
I think they need OL, WR, and some key defensive spots before they consider that. yeah, they need a backup QB, but I'm thinking they go Nick Foles or take a flier on Osweiler late.
I think it's a possibility depending on who is available (why not), but I think that it is more probable that Tannehill is off the board already.
I'm thinking they could stand to groom Cutler's eventual replacement.
Look at who they have to face in their division with GB and the Lions twice a year. Add to that the Vikings with their own young gun, so ya I could see them going for Tannehill if he is available.
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Jay Cutler will only be 29-years-old through the 2012 season. He was also having the best season of his career before he was injured. There is a 0% chance the Bears draft a QB in the first round.
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Best case scenario is as follows;
Griffen to us at 4.
Tannehill to Washington at 6.
Matt Flynn signs with Miami and they are out of the discussion at 8.
Where does Peyton Manning fit into your plan?
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San Fran of course!
Maybe Houston?
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I don't see Houston, Schaub was playing at or very close to elite level before he got hurt.. unless there is something to his injury that means he will be out or less than 100% next year, I don't see it.
San Fran is interesting but rarely is in the discussion.. with their D and running game, a healthy Manning takes them a whole new level...
I think he goes to Washington or Miami, Flynn goes to the other and we take RGIII at #4 without trading up...
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Another basic question that must be answered...what is RGIII's "bust factor"?
Well, I think that he stands a strong chance of being a highly successful QB, with superstar potential.
YT...so, in your opinion, there is a 25% chance that Griffin could be a bust?
You may not like to think about him possibly being a bust, but I'm sure you will agree, you want the Browns front office to study Griffin's success/failure factors in every way imaginable...right?
...I would hope that all Browns fans would want Holmgren, Heckert and their staff to study Griffin 100 times better and more in depth than the most informed fan has....right?
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..the percentage of/for success/failure of the 2nd best QB picked in the draft?
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Irrelevant. No 2 QBs, drafts, or situations are the same. In 1999, we held the 1st pick in the draft and took Tim Couch. The Eagles too McNabb. The Bengals took Akili Smith. Who got the better deal?
Roethlisberger was an 11th overall pick. Dan Marino was what .... 27th or 28th? He was also the 4th or 5th QB taken in the 1st round?
Every draft makes its own rules because every draft has entirely different players.
YT...you realize, there were fans who believed Tim Couch was the best QB in that draft just as you believe Griffin is the best or 2nd best QB in this draft??
You could be wrong about Griffin, just as many were wrong about Couch.
There are people who study NFL history in an effort to better educate themselves about such things as the success rates for QBs drafted first, second, etc. I read somewhere that the success/failure rates for the first QBs drafted was "at best" 75% success / 25% failure...something else I read lowered the ratio to 65% success rate / 35% failure rate for the first QB drafted.
The success/failure numbers for the second QB drafted were considerably lower than the those for the first QB drafted...I'll have to see if I can find that article...I found it interesting.
It is true that each QB drafted is a different individual and it is impossible to know for sure what their future holds...but those making the decisions on whom to draft should have as much information as they can find.
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Washington gets Flynn.
Miami's OC Sherman convinces them to draft Tannehill.
Seattle gets Peyton.
who does that leave? Arizona? KC? they both have middling QBs and draft in the low teens. Maybe KC gets Campbell to challenge Cassel. Arizona goes 1 more year with Kolb.
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I don't think RG3 is worth our #4 pick and don't think I'd pick him at 22 either.
He's a project pure and simple.
If he does come here I fully expect him to ride the pine in 2012 due to the complexity of the offense and to work on his mechanics.
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Schaub had the "Lis-Franc" injury, also known as the "Dreaded Lis-Franc" injury, which, as you may know, is French for "terminal foot disorder - we may need to amputate". It ended Brian Westbrook's career, supposedly. It is possible he may not be ready for 2012. Either that, or he will. 
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This is not the article I was looking for, but it does address the subject being discussed.
First Round QBs In The NFL Draft
Nov 27, 2011
While watching both Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley play last night, I decided to look back at the success rate of the QBs who were drafted in 1st round of the NFL draft over the last 10 years. The results are pretty disturbing. I split them into 2 groups, successes and busts. (I know that a binary grouping system isn’t very scientific, but it works for this since I this isn’t meant to be a scientific study.) The success rate is pretty low, too low for my taste.
Top 5: 61% success rate (8 of 13)
6-20: 57% (4 of 7)
21-32: 33% (2 of 6)
Overall: 54% (14 of 26)
Clearly, the best option is to select a in the top 5. Most of the busts in that category are players taken first overall in years when there wasn’t a real top QB. Teams with the #1 overall pick seem to push square peg QBs into the round #1 hole far too often. Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on your point of view, the Seahawks wont be picking in the top 5 in next year’s draft.
Recently, it seems that everyone just assumes that the Seahawks will be taking a QB in the first round of the draft next April. And while the need is definitely there, I’m not convinced that taking a QB is the best move by the team. The Seahawks have more holes that need filled besides QB, and selecting a player who has a 50% of being a bust doesn’t seem like the best path toward getting better. Even if the new QB isn’t a bust, chances are high that he will spend most, if not all, of next season on the bench. Maybe it’s just me, but spending a first round pick on a player who wont be playing doesn’t seem like good logic.
I know that it’s possible for the Seahawks to trade up into the top 5 to select a top QB, but the idea of giving up next the round 2 and 3 picks, as well as the year’s first round pick, just isn’t all that appealing. This team has too many holes to fill. It also isn’t within the realm of what we’ve been taught to expect from John Schneider. Examining his training from within the Packer organization, as well as his 2 drafts with the Seahawks, lead to the conclusion that he’s much more likely to trade down, and not up.
Overall, I think that might be the best idea for this organization. Assuming the Seahawks are picking somewhere around 15th overall, the Seahawks could easily drop down to around #27, pick up another 2nd round pick, and still select a QB like Ryan Tannehill (or Laundry Jones if recent reports of him dropping down draft boards is to be believed). Tannehill wouldn’t be any more likely to be a bust than a QB taken at 15, and the extra 2nd round pick would net the team a player who would help mitigate the loss is he does end up a bust.
Anyways, that’s my take on the matter. I’m sure it’ll be an unpopular opinion.
Here’s the list of all QB drafted in round 1, and how I classified them. The busts are in red and the successes are in green.
Pick #1: Sam Bradford – 2010
Pick #1: Matthew Stafford – 2009
Pick #1: Jamarcus Russell – 2007
Pick #1: Alex Smith – 2005
Pick #1: Eli Manning – 2004
Pick #1: Carson Palmer - 2003 Pick #1: David Carr - 2002 Pick #1: Michael Vick – 2001
Pick #3: Matt Ryan – 2008 Pick #3: Vince Young – 2006
Pick #3: Joey Harrington - 2002 Pick #4: Philip Rivers – 2004
Pick #5: Mark Sanchez – 2009 Pick #7: Byron Leftwich - 2003
Pick #10: Matt Lienart – 2006 Pick #11: Jay Cutler – 2006
Pick #11: Ben Roethlisberger – 2004
Pick #17: Josh Freeman – 2009
Pick #18: Joe Flacco – 2008 Pick #19: Kyle Boller - 2003
Pick #22: JP Losman – 2004
Pick #22: Rex Grossman - 2003
Pick #25: Tim Tebow – 2010 Pick #24: Aaron Rodgers – 2005
Pick #25: Jason Campbell – 2005 Pick #32: Patrick Ramsey - 2002
Obviously there’s some dispute as to which category some of the players on this list below in. Jason Campbell and Mark Sanchez could easily be in red, but I decided to relax my standards a bit for the green category. I didn’t want to be excused of fudging the numbers to make a point.
And if you’re one of those people who don’t think Tim Tebow belongs wholeheartedly in the red group, then I’m not sure what to say to you.
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Best case scenario is as follows;
Griffen to us at 4.
Tannehill to Washington at 6.
Matt Flynn signs with Miami and they are out of the discussion at 8.
Where does Peyton Manning fit into your plan?
I think it's already been said, but if a team like the 9ers, Jets or the Cardinals can up grade their QB positions, then they maybe poised to make a playoff run and in the 9ers case getting them over the hump and to a SB victory.
I don't think he wants to go somewhere that is still a few years away from perhaps being able to say they are a lock to make the playoffs. Let's face it Manning will be going to a team with the hope of getting them to the playoffs in 2112.
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Thanks for sharing that mac,
Tebow is a bust? Other then that I pretty much agree, but then how many (or %) have won a SB?
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Thanks for sharing that mac,
Tebow is a bust? Other then that I pretty much agree, but then how many (or %) have won a SB?
Yeah, that kinda looked odd to me about Tebow.. Not saying he won't bust, but I don't think he is one today..
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,399 |
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Irrelevant. No 2 QBs, drafts, or situations are the same. In 1999, we held the 1st pick in the draft and took Tim Couch. The Eagles too McNabb. The Bengals took Akili Smith. Who got the better deal?
I know who got the worst deal.. Tim Couch. To this day I maintain that Couch could have been as good as McNabb if not drafted and used as a human punching bag for years with zero talent around him... Then the stupid Texans did the exact same thing a few years later.. 
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Every draft makes its own rules because every draft has entirely different players.
I agree. You look at Griffin and make a determination if you think he is a franchise QB (which I happen to think he is).. doesn't matter if he's better than Luck or better than Tannehill or better than Johnny Unitas or Joe Montana.. you have to deal with what we have and what we need and what our options are RIGHT NOW and what are the chances that he is going to fill that need. If you feel he will then that opens up another can of worms as to whether it would be worth trading up.. which is the part that I'm still really uncertain about.. I've accepted the fact that if he's there at 4, I think we will take him...
yebat' Putin
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Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850 |
well, Rodgers, Eli and Ben are on that list, so that's 5 superbowls right there. Peyton was further back than this article, but would have been included (+1 superbowl). drew brees missed being on this list by 1 pick.
that's the last 7 superbowls right there.
#gmstrong
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,528
Dawg Talker
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Dawg Talker
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,528 |
If you really wanted to prove your point you go back 15yrs,20yrs,hell I bet it looks alot worse 30 yrs.ago.
But,all the research you would do,would mean absolutely nothing.
Each draft,each player,each team is a different situation.Way too many variables to come up with some scientific theory.
One thing we all can agree on,it's risky to draft a QB high.But then,it's risky to draft any position high.
Indecision may,or maynot,be my problem
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,399
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,399 |
Quote:
One thing we all can agree on,it's risky to draft a QB high.But then,it's risky to draft any position high.
I think we can also agree that it sucks going into each season, year after year after year, wondering who your QB is going to be or whether he is any good. 
yebat' Putin
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