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Thursday April 12, 2012 - 1:29 PM
Mike Freeman
Tannehill a top-10 draft pick? Only when the annual madness sets in
By Mike Freeman | CBSSports.com National NFL Insider



So here we are again, the annual NFL Draft, where smart men suddenly become incredibly dumb. Example No. 7 trillion: Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill is suddenly a first-round pick.

If Tannehill moved any faster up the NFL's draft boards, he'd be Deion Sanders. Starships don't travel this quickly. Still trying to figure out why. Was it his 1-5 record against ranked teams? Was it his completion percentage that fell last year? Was it his quarterback rating that was lower than Brock Osweiler's?

Or the 19 starts? Or that not too long ago he was a wide receiver.

Maybe it's the remarkable pedigree of Big 12 quarterbacks in the NFL, like Chris Simms, Brad Smith, Colt McCoy or Vince Young. They've been just swell.


In January 2011, Tannehill went against LSU and its NFL-caliber defensive backs. It was his sixth start, and he tossed three picks. This was a Tannehill pattern for much of his college career at quarterback. The more athletic the defense, the worst he performed, and as we all know, there are no athletes roaming NFL secondaries. None at all.

Tannehill has the greatest bust potential of any possible first-round pick. This is nothing personal against Tannehill. He seems like a fine young man and a smart dude. This is about the people doing the evaluating. This is the great follywang of the draft, and we see this every year.

Common sense is replaced by hope. Words like "potential" become fruitful and multiply. It was in this environment players like Blaine Gabbert and JaMarcus Russell floated to places they should have never gone. We've all suffered from draft dementia at some point, but this seems to happen to significant segments of the NFL every year.

In speaking with several team personnel executives, there is a distinct possibility the Dolphins will take Tannehill with the No. 8 pick. This could be the Dolphins using their Enigma machine to send out counter-intelligence (another draft staple), but the Tannehill-Miami speculation seems legitimate.

Thus, if you Google the phrase "setting up to fail," there's a picture of Tannehill right alongside Ty Tryon, Bode Miller and Ricky Williams. Tannehill is a third-rounder or maybe -- maybe -- a late second-round pick. I've seen him play. Good athleticism, nice arm, but there's nothing that should elevate him into the top eight in the draft. He wasn't even among the eight best players in his conference.

The big issue with Tannehill is throwing accuracy. That's an important quality for an NFL quarterback. Allegedly.

"I feel like he's being pushed up the board not necessarily on his ability to play the position at the next level but on his athleticism and people predicting his potential," former Denver general manager Ted Sundquist said on the NFL Network recently. "I think the Dolphins, if they take [Michael] Floyd, have an opportunity to find a quarterback with that second (round) pick ... much like Cincinnati did last year when they took A.J. Green and found Andy Dalton waiting for them. I would take Michael Floyd with the Miami Dolphins' pick at No. 8."

That man makes sense. Maybe because he has been out of the NFL for a few years. The more distance you get from football, the less you are affected by draft silliness. It's like escaping a radioactive plume.

NFL personnel types never learn their lesson. Ever. A combine performance changes everything, overshadowing what they witnessed with their own eyes when a player was on the field.

Tannehill vaulting upward like Carl Lewis is more a sign of teams desperate for a quarterback and wishful thinking. There are two great throwers in this draft: Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. After that, it's more of a hodgepodge. After that, for the most part, it's a cluster of second-tier guys, and you're fooling yourself if you believe Tannehill's drastically superior than some of the other quarterbacks.

Or you're also suffering from draft dementia.
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Freeman, Kiper and Billick have declared Tannehill is the world's greatest bust. Three QBs they believed in the most. Billik = Boller Kiper=Quinn Freeman= Vince Young Make room in Canton

Weeden better prospect than Tannehill, says ESPN's KC Joyner...

Maintaining a rational perspective this time of year is an invaluable trait, but it seems that perspective is being lost when it comes to measuring the relative draft day merits of Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden and Texas A&M Aggies passer Ryan Tannehill.

Tannehill's huge edge in age (he will be 24 years old at the end of the 2012 NFL season, while Weeden will be 29) is a primary reason he has been vaulted over Weeden on many draft boards, but a variety of metrics reveal that Weeden is the better QB prospect and more than makes up for the calendar difference.

Overall metrics

Let's start by reviewing their 2011 route depth metrics in contests against BCS conference-caliber foes (sans the Kansas game for Weeden).

Here are Tannehill's numbers.
Ryan Tannehill's 2011 stats
Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Int Pen Pen Yds YPA
Short (1-10 yards) 203 266 1545 13 1 2 -12 5.7
Medium (11-19 yards) 61 104 1016 5 6 0 0 9.8
Deep (20-29 yards) 11 35 332 4 3 1 15 9.6
Bomb (30+ yards) 5 23 267 3 1 1 15 11.8
Other (throwaways, etc.) 1 41 3 0 3 0 0 0.1
Total 281 469 3163 25 14 4 18 6.7
Vertical (11+ yards) 77 162 1615 12 10 2 30 10.0
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 16 58 599 7 4 2 30 10.5

And here are Weeden's.

Brandon Weeden's 2011 stats (sans Kansas game)
Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Int Pen Pen Yds YPA
Short (1-10 yards) 250 299 1887 10 1 3 11 6.3
Medium (11-19 yards) 63 100 1147 13 4 2 13 11.4
Deep (20-29 yards) 16 28 539 2 0 1 15 19.1
Bomb (30+ yards) 3 16 103 1 1 1 15 6.9
Other (throwaways, etc.) 0 17 0 0 2 0 0 0.0
Total 332 460 3676 26 8 7 54 8.0
Vertical (11+ yards) 82 144 1789 16 5 4 43 12.4
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 19 44 642 3 1 2 30 14.6

Weeden beat Tannehill in yards per attempt (YPA) at every route depth level except for the bomb pass category, and his 4 YPA lead in stretch vertical passes shows that he was still more productive on aerials deep downfield.

Consistency

Weeden was also much more consistent than Tannehill.

Tannehill completed 70 percent of his passes in two of his 2011 contests against BCS conference teams. Weeden topped that mark six times.

Tannehill posted a YPA total of 8 yards or higher in three games. Weeden did that five times.

Tannehill notched a passer rating mark of 140 or higher three times (if the Northwestern game in which he came up just short of this level is counted in his favor). Weeden reached that mark nine times and actually only had two games in which he did not achieve this goal.

Career growth

Tannehill started on a high note in his first three starts of the 2010 season (switching over from WR), but when the competition level increased dramatically over the last three games of the season (versus Nebraska, at Texas, versus LSU in the Cotton Bowl), he went 55-for-94 for 504 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. That equates to an abysmal 5.4 YPA and an equally bad 107.7 passer rating.
Rumors: Who Wants Tannehill?

ESPN Insider takes a deeper look at the teams that are rumored to covet quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
Rumor Central Insider

The late-season swoon for Tannehill recurred in 2011 during the last seven BCS-caliber games of that season, as he posted a YPA mark of 6.1 or less five times. Take the contest against the abysmal Kansas Jayhawks' defense (ranked No. 118 in passer rating allowed) out of his totals during that time frame and Tannehill had a 5.9 YPA and a 113.8 passer rating, both of which are quite comparable to the aforementioned poor statistical marks he had in 2010.

To get an idea of how much Weeden's passing performance grew from 2010 to 2011, note that he topped the 140-passer rating mark in only five BCS games in the 2010 campaign; in 2011 he did it nine times.

Ability to raise the level of play of those around him

This factor is huge for Weeden, because contrary to popular belief, Justin Blackmon did not have a dominant 2011 campaign. This was a primary reason Blackmon ended up ranking sixth in my recent review of the top 10 wide receiver prospects in this year's NFL draft class.

Blackmon's overall YPA numbers were more than three yards off of his dominant junior season totals yet Weeden was able to keep the Cowboys' offense scoring points at an even higher rate.

Tannehill did face something of the same issue with one of his star wideouts, as Jeff Fuller regressed from a 9.1 YPA against BCS teams in 2010 to a 6.5 YPA mark in that category in 2011, but a lot of that credit has to go to Ryan Swope. Swope set Aggies single-season totals in receiving and receiving yards last year and established himself as the team's true No. 1 wideout. Weeden did not have the luxury of an alternate No.1 wide receiver (Josh Cooper, the Cowboys' second-best wideout, is merely a possession receiver), and thus his achievement here still ends up being superior.

Big game performance

The most disturbing part of this analysis is that Tannehill fell apart when the Aggies needed him the most. The most egregious example is when he posted a career-low 80.45 passer rating in Texas A&M's farewell Big 12 contest against the archrival Texas Longhorns. That passer rating was not a statistical anomaly, either, as Tannehill made a slew of passing errors and looked rattled by the Longhorns' defense.
2012 NFL Draft

NFL The Indianapolis Colts are officially on the clock. Follow the latest draft developments on ESPN.com.

• Blogs: NFL Nation | Scouts Inc. Insider
• Kiper: Mock 4.0 Insider | The Big Board Insider
• McShay: Mock 5.0 Insider | The Top 32 Insider
• More draft: Order | Home | Twitter

Weeden did not have a dominant statistical performance in the Cowboys' biggest game of the year, a blowout victory over the archrival Oklahoma Sooners in a Bedlam game that decided the winner of the Big 12 conference, but he had zero interceptions and zero bad decisions in that contest (a bad decision being a mental error, such as a dropped interception, that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover). That stands in stark contrast to the three interceptions he posted against the Sooners in 2010 and again shows how Weeden was able to grow with experience.

Age isn't a big issue

Trent Dilfer made a terrific point when he noted in a recent Insider article that NFL teams rarely think of their quarterbacks along the lines of a 10-year plan.

History affords many cases of elite quarterback play over the age of 29. According to the seasonal NFL YPA leaders chart on pro-football-reference.com, 47 out of the 95 quarterbacks who have led or tied for the lead in that category since 1936 have been 29 years or older.

Biography

In some ways this may be the most important factor of all.

Tannehill wasn't able to win the Aggies' starting job in 2008 and was only moved back into that role two a half years later when Jerrod Johnson's injuries and erratic play left the Texas A&M coaches with little choice.

By contrast, Weeden came into a program that had a record-setting starter in Zac Robinson, so he had to wait until Robinson graduated to get a shot at the job. Once he received that opportunity, Weeden won the gig and dominated from day one, breaking Robinson's marks and winning all-conference honors.

This leads to an obvious question. If Tannehill had trouble winning over his collegiate coaches less than two years ago and his play since that time has been inconsistent at best and Weeden's path has been pretty much the exact opposite, why are people banking on Tannehill as the better prospect?

A five-year age edge is certainly significant, but when the entirety of the evidence is taken into account, Weeden is by far the better quarterback prospect.

What that article says to me is that we should draft Justin Blackmon with our first pick

Post deleted by OverToad

Post deleted by CleveSteve

Posted what?

I have no idea what you're talking about.

Quote:

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Freeman, Kiper and Billick have declared Tannehill is the world's greatest bust. Three QBs they believed in the most. Billik = Boller Kiper=Quinn Freeman= Vince Young Make room in Canton

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I think Billik admitted he loved Russel. Now I know you're stating that because he drafted Boller, but if I recall correctly, didn't he end up taking Boller because he lost out on a higher rated QB? I'm too lazy to look it up, but didn't he really want someone like Leftwich? My memory of how that went down in the draft is just fuzzy enough not to remember who he really wanted, only to have to settle for the next rated QB in Boller.

Hmmm...speaking of that, didn't we really want Griffin? We didn't get him, so aren't we settling for the next best guy if we go Tannehill or Weeden?

Quote:

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Tannehill has the greatest bust potential of any possible first-round pick.

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I'm picking out this quote from the article, not to take a shot at Tannehill (I've got other ammo for that ) but to exemplify the madness that's happening with QB's.

I'm going to DISAGREE with the above statement, actually. Just like how badly Tannehill has flown up the charts only because he's a QB, Weeden is gaining momentum and according to some "experts" he's now also a 1st round QB. If that's the case, then Weeden becomes the most likely to "bust" and it's not close.

Tannehill is so raw it's sickening. Because of that and that alone he shouldn't be a first round pick (something I've contended since day one). However, because he is so raw, it's going to take him years to put it together, if he even can. That means he's going to get time to learn, whether it's with his first team or his second.

Now Weeden is a different story. He's going to be 30 in his sophomore season. He doesn't have the luxury of waiting until his 4th season to figure it out. If he doesn't get it by his second or third season, no team is going to be patient with a guy in his 30's. That means Weeden has about two years...maybe three...to effectively become a legitimate starter in the NFL or he's done. And since he's now a supposed top-40 player, that makes Weeden the guy with the biggest bust potential.

Now Aol's Sportingnews has us taking Weeden with our other 1st rounder.

Screw that.

Weeden does not throw well once he has to move around. It is the same knock with Landry Jones. Teams see this they will jam the receivers and bring heat. His age isn't the only issue. NFL teams will expose this major flaw in his game.

Tannehill is a top 10 pick because of his amazing skill set and upside. Now he just has to finish selling himself to the Browns Sunday and Monday. They will probably head back to Texas for his private workout after his visit.

His workout and visit will be fresh in the minds of the FO with it being so close to the draft.

I'll tell ya this...I don't want any of these over-rated 1st-round QB's. Outside of Luck and RG3, they are all developmental guys, and if I'm taking a developmental guy, I'm not going to blow a high pick on him. Give me instant starters at need positions, then give me a Cousins in the 3rd or 4th.

We already have Cousins on our roster. We call him Colt.

He gets rid of the ball though, he's not stupid...he has worked in an Offense where he got the ball out early on most plays...he's a pure pocket passer, sure...but since we have an All Pro LT, good C and probably a high pick rookie RT, they can be valuable for a change instead of blocking for Colt "5sec freeze" McCoy and be wasted more or less

I don't how anyone can't get excited watching Weeden throw the ball...dude sprays it all over the field with easy and unlike DA he has underneath touch

I see, this will be another Ward-pick moment if we pick him at 22 or 37...where every Brownsfan went WTF !?! and I was happy....who wants hype-Mays over Ward today?

Weeden is a fine QB and I agree Toad: he gets 2 years max...I even think we can go QB in 2013 if he doesn't look good enough....we're going to find out quickly on Weeden which way he'll trend: Boller/Losman or Roethli

If we aren't sold on Tannehill, we should wait until next year and take our shot at a QB there. At least with Colt, I will be able to save some money. There would be no reason to renew NFL sunday ticket.

Russ Lande: Tannehill has strongest arm in 2012 draft
Posted by Evan Silva on April 13, 2012, 3:22 PM EDT


Former Ravens head coach Brian Billick isn’t high on former Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill as a 2012 draft prospect, but league evaluators certainly seem to be. Tannehill is widely regarded as a surefire top-12 pick.

Russ Lande of Sporting News isn’t in the league anymore, but he has experience as an NFL scout. Now a leading “draftnik,” Lande rates Tannehill with the strongest arm among quarterbacks in the 2012 draft class.

“Tannehill has risen up draft boards so fast because he reminds many of a more consistent Jay Cutler,” Lande wrote in a piece ranking and analyzing this year’s draft-eligible quarterbacks. “The ball explodes out of Tannehill’s hand and gets to the receiver before defenders can make a play.”

Tannehill is suddenly the most polarizing player in the draft. Thursday’s episode of NFL Live on ESPN opened with a Todd McShay-Mel Kiper back-and-forth argument debating Tannehill’s draft-day value, as well as his outlook as an NFL player.

McShay is much higher on Tannehill than Kiper. Appearing on ESPN radio Thursday, McShay opined that Tannehill’s physical talent is superior to currently projected 2013 No. 1 overall pick Matt Barkley.

“I think [Tannehill] has greater upside, physically,” McShay said. “I just look at the two. Tannehill has a better arm, more mobile. I think he has better tools [than Barkley] if he can get there.” web page

Just look at his (Tannehill's) bowl game vs Northwestern, it was mid 4th quarter to late 4th quarter. The game situation, he really could have shut it down went conservative, made the short throws, try the dump off passes, run the clock out, shorten the game.

What I saw was a guy who wanted to extend the game, who made deep passes, who moved the ball down the field in a couple plays, in short, what I saw was a guy who in my opinion was trying to say, " I can play 8 quarters every Sunday and my arm won't be sore" .

One thing is for sure, If they took Tannehill and he came here, and all of a sudden, at the ( time frame of) 1 and a quarter seconds after the snap the ball leaves the qb's hands in route to 15-20ish yards past the line of scrimmage for a completion,

It would be something we haven't seen around here in a while.
Young Brett Favre I tell ya.

Look the Browns blew it by letting Griffin get away. At this point they should try to just upgrade the roster with BPA.

Clearly Richardson is the best player available to the Browns. He would provide immediate returns in offensive production.

What is the point about reaching for a player like Tannehill? Potential, really?
Measured against risk, I don't think so.

You take a guy like Tannehill and leave out guys like Richardson, Blackmon, or Claiborne. The Browns are not in a position to do that. Their offense is lacking playmakers. Guys who can score points. You don't reach for potential and leave talent behind.

Again what would be the point in taking a QB later (meaning 3 round or beyond)?

The percentages of a player really contributing drop like crazy after each round especially at QB.

Upgrade the roster. Give McCoy this year with better tools. If he stumbles then mortgage next years draft for the best QB you can get.

I agree, and disagree.

I want no part of Tannehill. We did blow it by not managing to acquire RG3. However, now we have to move on with what we have, and I think that we have enough to take a chance on a guy like Weeden in the 2nd round. I don't want to risk a 1st round pick on a QB at this point, but if we have 2 day 1 starters under our belt by the time the 2nd round rolls around, then I have no problem with taking Weeden then as a guy who could potentially bump McCoy out of the starting lineup, and who would not cost a 1st round pick. He would not stop us from taking a QB high next year if we still wanted or needed to.

j/c

I will admit I have seen very little of Tannhill's throws...but the ones I have...the ball looks like it is "heavy" to him and he certainly appears to push it more than throw it.

I simply don't see the "great" arm that I sometimes read about.

I know he was a scout for the Browns at one time, pretty sure he was with the Rams as well.

Tannehill has one of the strongest arms in this draft. To say otherwise is nonsense. He has everything you want in a quarterback besides the experience and that is why he is a solid top 10 talent. It is also why he will be the next QB for the Browns.

I agree that Tannehill has a strong arm. The strongest in the draft? Eh not so sure, who knows. But I think that he is a very poor decision maker. Will that improve with experience? One would hope but the question is how much?

Yeah, I am tired of these wimpy, noodle armed guys who can't fit a pass into a department store size window. I want a real QB who can fit the ball into NFL windows, and who can throw the ball accurately to at least the short and medium depths ...... and who can deliver the ball with proper placement so receivers can run with the damn thing after they catch it.

I really, truly hate watching our pass offense go: Snap .... Look ...... Look .... Look .... Throw short/Receiver tackled immediately.

Actually I think Jordan Jefferson has the strongest arm followed by Weeden and Tanny in no order.

He has all the tools and the smarts. Man do I have my fingers crossed.

Please pull the trigger!!!

Do you still think griffin has a below-average arm?

The kid reminds me so much of Jay Cutler. I believe we are bringing him in today and he is staying till monday. After watching Colt for 2 years, they have to be wowed by tannehills skills lol.

He can sit behind Colt and learn how to check down on 4th and 15 with a minute to go. I know Colt can teach him the old center toss to mack with the game on the line. Maybe Colt can help him refine his mechanics so he can throw some of those passes that were so bad that the opposing coaches thought they were tipped and threw challenge flags lol.

I won the argument hang it up.