DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Back to the Shurmur conversation

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It's become pretty apparent that the coaching staff doesn't trust TRich to get 1-2 yds in those situations and I kind of understand as he either gets 5+ or gets stopped for no gain...I expected something else from a "workhorse" and the coaching staff probably too. He's got to learn to play to the situation or he won't, well, PLAY in those situations...that easy

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It's become pretty apparent that the coaching staff doesn't trust TRich to get 1-2 yds in those situations and I kind of understand as he either gets 5+ or gets stopped for no gain...I expected something else from a "workhorse" and the coaching staff probably too. He's got to learn to play to the situation or he won't, well, PLAY in those situations...that easy

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I disagree with you.

With 4 minutes left, along with 2 time outs, it is idiotic to go for it on 4th down from your own 28.

All Baltimore had to do at that point was run the ball 3 times, kick the FG, and win by 10. That's exactly what happened. Once they stopped us on 4th down, the game was over. We had no chance.

Punt the ball, play defense, and get the ball back with a completely new set of downs. Weeden has shown enough ability to drive the ball down the field to offer some hope that he can do it again t tie things up. We drove the field at the end of the 1st half to get to the Ravens 11, and kick a FG. That was with less than 1 minute left in the half.

Shurmur made the wrong call there, because it cost the game. I would be more likely to defend his decision to punt from midfield than to go for it from his own 28 under the circumstances of yesterday's game.

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Asked why he made the call, Shurmur said, “I wanted to get the first down. I felt like we had a play that we liked and we didn’t execute it well. That’s why.”

Considering the field position and the time remaining, Shurmur gambled too soon. The incompletion ended the game even though there was still 3:50 to play.

Weeden wasn’t second-guessing, although his answer might have indicated otherwise.

“That’s not my decision. Whatever’s in my headset, that’s what I’m calling,” Weeden said.

Shurmur seemed to be reacting to criticism he took two weeks ago after a 17-13 loss against the Indianapolis Colts. With 6:38 remaining, Shurmur elected to punt on fourth-and-1 from the Colts 41, flip-flopping after a timeout.

In a postgame exchange, Shurmur didn’t agree that the fourth-and-2 call seemed out of character.

“What do you mean? It will be a fun thing for everyone to talk about this week, just like when we lost the game and I didn’t go for it,” he said. “I don’t know what you’re talking about, ‘My nature.’ I don’t know you that well, you probably don’t know me that well.”

When the Colts game was brought up, Shurmur said, “In both situations, the decision didn’t lead us to a victory did it? That’s why you talk about it. Had we converted it and we moved forward, then it would have been talked about on what a gutsy move it was, right?”

Had it worked, it wouldn’t have been seen in the same light as Sean Payton’s onside kick to start the second half in the New Orleans Saints’ Super Bowl XLIV victory over the Colts. With the Browns now 2-7, a victory over Baltimore would have been talked about more because of the Ravens’ woes than the Browns’ improvement.

In another breath, Shurmur said he believed the Browns were ready to play, even though they fell behind 14-0 and seemed to be sleep-walking through the first quarter.

But the fourth-and-2 decision might not have been what angered Shurmur’s players. Even more disconcerting was the amateurish operation on the sideline. The Browns couldn’t get play calls in and couldn’t get the proper personnel on the field. High school teams are run more efficiently.

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People act as if TRich is a given...the truth is that he's as much to blame for the "inconsistencies" of this O as Weeden...

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There's no defense for what Shurmur did.

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Nah, you just opt to ignore math and the other arguments....

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Math?

Are you keeping score as to how many talking heads are saying he's wrong? I can add them up if you like.

The book says you punt. The book is conventional wisdom. You can't argue "math" and "other arguments" against conventional wisdom.

There will be even more negative judgments against that move by Shurmur. This is a debate you can't win.

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People act as if TRich is a given...the truth is that he's as much to blame for the "inconsistencies" of this O as Weeden...

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Boy, now if that ain't a stretch...

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Cite all the articles you want

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Why thank you. I intend on doing just that.

Bill Livingston is now chiming in:

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"That was a baaadddd, bad call"

The disconnect in coach Pat Shurmur has to be right up there with the seriously bi-polar Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde, though. Shurmur, who punted on fourth-and-1 at the Colts' 41 trailing by four points (the margin by which the Browns lost), went for it on fourth-and-2 at his own 28 Sunday, down by seven points.

3. On the play, quarterback Brandon Weeden threw a ball out of the Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn repertoire from "Major League." Greg Little was open on a slant, but it was jusssssst a bit high. The Cavaliers' 7-foot center, Tyler Zeller, only waves at that one.

4. It was a bad, bad, baaad call. There were still just under 4 minutes left. The Browns' defense had just given up the go-ahead touchdown and a two-point conversion, but otherwise the D had been putting up goose-eggs since the first quarter. The percentage call, certainly one most fans expected, was to punt the ball away, get a three-and-out or a short series and have, with the two-minute warning, three timeouts to use while trying to tie the game.

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Oh yes, and there will be more.

Give me just one article defending Shurmur. Just one, then we can have a debate...

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There's no defense for what Shurmur did.

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Nah, you just opt to ignore math and the other arguments....Rice got 5-8yds on every run the drive before...what makes you confident he doesn't get 10 on 3 runs? That, and the psychological situation of the team, crowd etc that you simply opt to ignore

Cite all the articles you want, it makes a good story because of the contrast to the Indy gaffe, but it doesn't change the situation

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I invite you to go to nfl.com or ESPN and list all RBs on AVG...look where TRich falls...you'll be amazed. In 5 of 9 games he started he had a rush AVG of less than 3.5, which pretty much means he wasn't of much help

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NRTU Gopher.

Here's another judgment against Shurmur going for it on his own 28:

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web page

Asked why he made the call, Shurmur said, “I wanted to get the first down. I felt like we had a play that we liked and we didn’t execute it well. That’s why.”

Considering the field position and the time remaining, Shurmur gambled too soon. The incompletion ended the game even though there was still 3:50 to play.

Weeden wasn’t second-guessing, although his answer might have indicated otherwise.

“That’s not my decision. Whatever’s in my headset, that’s what I’m calling,” Weeden said.

Shurmur seemed to be reacting to criticism he took two weeks ago after a 17-13 loss against the Indianapolis Colts. With 6:38 remaining, Shurmur elected to punt on fourth-and-1 from the Colts 41, flip-flopping after a timeout.

In a postgame exchange, Shurmur didn’t agree that the fourth-and-2 call seemed out of character.

“What do you mean? It will be a fun thing for everyone to talk about this week, just like when we lost the game and I didn’t go for it,” he said. “I don’t know what you’re talking about, ‘My nature.’ I don’t know you that well, you probably don’t know me that well.”

When the Colts game was brought up, Shurmur said, “In both situations, the decision didn’t lead us to a victory did it? That’s why you talk about it. Had we converted it and we moved forward, then it would have been talked about on what a gutsy move it was, right?”

Had it worked, it wouldn’t have been seen in the same light as Sean Payton’s onside kick to start the second half in the New Orleans Saints’ Super Bowl XLIV victory over the Colts. With the Browns now 2-7, a victory over Baltimore would have been talked about more because of the Ravens’ woes than the Browns’ improvement.

In another breath, Shurmur said he believed the Browns were ready to play, even though they fell behind 14-0 and seemed to be sleep-walking through the first quarter.

But the fourth-and-2 decision might not have been what angered Shurmur’s players. Even more disconcerting was the amateurish operation on the sideline. The Browns couldn’t get play calls in and couldn’t get the proper personnel on the field. High school teams are run more efficiently.

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There's more, but we get the idea.

There's no defense for what Shurmur did.

As noted, these aren't going to be the last articles that blast Shurmur. Even his own players are starting to bail...

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NFL coaches are good at teaching players to play the game of football, Xs and Os, usually pretty driven, good with people and often with friends/agent in the right places.

Newspaper columnists are good with words. One can argue just about any point of view by subtly/cleverly manipulating words. You are actually very good at doing it. That's a compliment, btw

Players are good at being very big, fast, strong/powerful, and athletic.

4th down situations really come down to game theory. Coaches have a certain intuition/feel for the game and in some situations it comes out to be near ideal but as it relates to 4th down conversions, coaches are too conservative. It really becomes more of a math and game theory problem than a football problem. If that's too nerdy for some people to stand, oh well.

Game situations can be quantified... for example, the theoretical neutral line in the NFL is somewhere between the 10 and 15 yard line. Meaning, in a game where neither time nor score is a major factor, having the ball 1st and 10 in that area on your side of the field means both teams are about equally likely to score. Similarly, the average starting field position after a kickoff comes out to be around the 27 yard line (might have to adjust to recent kickoff rule adjustments, but you get the point.) 1st and 10 from your own 27 yard line, a team has about +0.7 expected points.

Similarly, it's not that hard to quantify the game situations as it relates to the decision. I've done it a couple times in this thread. It is counterintuitive to most, but it's actually the right decision from a % to win standpoint by a comfortable margin.

Here is a situation where the math is actually close:

Opening drive of the game, 4th and 2...... from your own 28. Really.

Just about everyone who reads that will scoff at it, and you might not be able to find a coach actually going for it in that situation in NFL history. It sounds almost too unbelievable to be true, as an unsuccessful conversion puts the other team in scoring position already.

Of course, a 4th and 2 still converts at close to 60% of the time as a league average (in the Shurmur conversation, I adjusted that down to 50/50 to account for a bad Browns offense and also to give myself a bit of leeway just in case.)

So 60% of the time you effectively gain another possession; 40% of the time you sacrifice nearly 40 yards of field position (which again, as per above, can easily be quanitified and it comes out to something like, for that 40% of the time, a couple extra points for the opponent.)

Yeah most would say that's crazy, but it is what it is. That is an actual close decision though; the one we are arguing about really isn't. I think that being a former collegiate athlete myself, and also a former pro poker player, I have a pretty good grasp of these things. Meaning, I understand the ebb and flow of sports, and also used to work out much, much, much more difficult situations as it relates to game theory in poker.... but that's a different topic.

For those interested in reading much more structured and persuasive arguments than I have laid out, here's a good place to start:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/search/label/4th%20down?max-results=100

Even more specifically, here's a good 4 part series from the same site:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html

Just please don't take newspaper columnists and folks at ESPN at their word lol... we call them talking heads for a reason

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Setting aside the topic of discussion, that's interesting reading, so thanks for posting.

Granted, I'm not buying it as it applies to Shurmur, since I'm rather certain he's no more familiar with that information as I am.

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Thanks for some math

There's a reason +EV and -EV, implied odds etc is too difficult to figure out for the occasional player...same here

The poker "book" of 20 years ago is a loser or brake even player today, same will happen in the NFL...the book will be re-written by some "smart" Coach and half the league will copy it

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I invite you to go to nfl.com or ESPN and list all RBs on AVG...look where TRich falls...you'll be amazed. In 5 of 9 games he started he had a rush AVG of less than 3.5, which pretty much means he wasn't of much help

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I would also take a bet that TRich has the least amount of rushes (% wise !) gaining 3-5yds...people get so excited over his 10yarders that they forget the 2 and -1yd runs he sandwitched it in

The sample size is large enough...he's a 3.8yd/run RB right now, not even close to league AVG and dug deep in the bottom 3rd of starting RBs

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I was a bit confused it looked like Bolden was about 1-2 yds short of the first from what I saw and I was expecting a challenge but when it didn't happen I assumed that it was not a challengeable play. JUst when I think I understand the rules with challenges I find myself mistaken!

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In the 5 games where he got at least 15 carries, he has been held to less than a 4.2 ypc average just once and that was the very first game... in the other 4 he has 5.7, 4.8, 5.1 and 4.2.... Yet we continue to stop giving him the ball....

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This sounds VERY familiar!

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What I saw from players after the game is that he is losing the team. They won't say it, but body language tells me the players are sick of Shurmer.

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What I saw from players after the game is that he is losing the team. They won't say it, but body language tells me the players are sick of Shurmer.

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I can't disagree with that. They may have been down just because of how they lost, but this is the first time that Weeden looked as though he had something he wanted to say, but wasn't going to say it.

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And finally, let's finish up with TYFNC Hall of Fame candidate Pat Shurmur, who probably deserves his own section at this point. Shurmur's Browns put in a credible performance against the Ravens on Sunday, losing 25-15 when they settled for five field goals from Phil Dawson.

For some reason, despite the fact that the organization just spent a top-five draft pick on a running back, Shurmur got incredibly pass-happy on short yardage on Sunday.

How happy?

The Browns faced third or fourth down with four or less yards to go nine different times on Sunday. Shurmur called a pass play each time. They produced four conversions and an interception.

There's nothing wrong with throwing the ball in short yardage if you think it's what your team does best, but doesn't it make sense to run the ball with your best player at least once or twice in those situations?

Maybe Shurmur thinks Dawson's the organization's best player and that he was putting the ball in that guy's hands.

Given how bad the Browns are these days, he might even be right.

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