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I just don't get the Brandon Weeden love and I guess I never will...
at the end of the day Smith is an upgrade of Weeden today and this next year... in 3-4 years who knows.
Hunter + Dart = This is the way.
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I don't really think it's so much "Smith Love" as it is trying to figure out what it is this FO wants to do.
Do they see Weeden as someone they can groom? Does Norv like Smith and the way he has developed over time? Does their former working relationship bring anything into this equasion?
I could see a scenario where Norv and Co. would want to bring Smith in to start for a two or maybe even three years to give them time to draft a guy and bring him along. Then they wouldn't have to jump on the first QB that becomes available in the draft this year or next actually.
It would give them the time to shore up the D and tweak other factors and positions and take players as they wish, not how they feel they need to.
I'm not saying that's their plan, but I could see that as a possibility. And say what you will. Smith was throwing for over 70% when he was benched. No matter the situation.
If they feel the need to win more games now, I think it's quite possible. Many times a new FO and coaching staff want "their guy", not someone elses leftovers at QB.
I don't know what they see in Smith or if they want him. But I think it would be silly to rule him out as a possible option at the QB position.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
#gmstrong
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I don't think that Smith is an upgrade. He is a careful, cautious QB, who is not a playmaker.
Whether or not Weeden becomes a great QB is up for debate, but Smith is a very average QB.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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I'm trying to get my head around the Smith love on here.
I'm trying to get my head around the Smith hate on here... the guy has proven that in the right system he can be not just good, but great... what have our QBs proven?
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Geez, I wonder if the coaching staff has anything to do with it.
Of course they do. I'm not even sure what your point is with this..
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He will bomb here and doesn't fit the image of what the coaches want the offense to be.
Just out of curiosity, how do you know what the coaches want this offense to be? Harbaugh left Stanford where he had the prototypical big armed strong QB in Luck and went to San Fran and Smith had a couple great years... if Chud and Norv are any good, they will make whoever plays QB better.... because they will run an offense that fits him.
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Unless you put him on the right team, with the right coaches, with the right system, with the right players
And Weeden is what? The guy who can put a bad team and a bad staff and a bad system on his back and carry it to the playoffs?
yebat' Putin
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Weeden's ceiling is higher than Alex Smith's ceiling.
Based on what? The fact that he can throw it harder and farther? I'm being serious... I'm not a big Alex Smith fan and I personally want to keep Weeden and give him at least next year to see what kind of progress he can make... but after watching Alex Smith the last couple seasons and watching Weeden in his rookie year... what is it that leads you to believe that Weeden can be better than Smith has been the last couple years? Is he smarter? Is he more accurate? Is he more durable? Is he more mobile? Is it his mechanics? Is it his footwork? Is he more coachable? Is he more clutch? Is he a better leader?
yebat' Putin
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Weeden's ceiling is higher than Alex Smith's ceiling. Based on what? The fact that he can throw it harder and farther?
Yes. But I'll have more on that.
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Is he smarter?
No. If I recall correctly Alex Smith is a pretty smart guy.
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Is he more accurate?
No but Weeden does have accurate stretches (conversely inaccurate stretches as well). I think he's better on some throws than others. He certainly needs to work on crossing routes but I think that may be more of a function of first year player playing with newbies too.
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Is he more durable?
Yes I think it's safe to say he's more durable. He's built more stoutly than Alex Smith.
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Is he more mobile?
No Alex Smith wins this one easily. I actually think Alex Smith has nice mobility.
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Is it his mechanics?
Yes that's a big piece. I really like the way that Weeden throws the football from his waist up. I like seeing him snap off throws where his lower half is set. I really like him operating in the shotgun. I think if he was really coached up in the Patriots, inside the hash marks, offensive system he could do a pretty good Tom Brady impression.
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Is it his footwork?
No he has a ways to go on his footwork. Again I like Alex Smith's footwork. It's probably the main reason he was so accurate this year.
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Is he more coachable? Is he more clutch? Is he a better leader?
Those are all things I would have a tough time evaluating as an outsider.
Bottom line for me is Brandon Weeden has more tools to work with as a pocket passer than Alex Smith does.
He is one of those god-given talent types as it pertains to throwing.
Because of that I want to see what we can do with him.
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Alex Smith can read defenses better than Weeden. Weeden has serious mental blockage when drop 7 rush 4. when they rush 6 and drop 5..he panics.
Smith doesn't turn the ball over as much.
You let Weeden go in the off season,their would be zero interest in him as a starting QB.
Smith could start for the Jets,Chiefs, Browns, Vikings, Bills and Jags
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How many yrs. has AS been in the NFL? Yet we keep comparing BW to vets and wonder how much better the vets are, if so, how much? I find that funny. BW is a Rookie, no, if ands or buts. We get no extended time out of AS. BW had a very comparable yr. to Luck. Difference being, Luck's coaches gave him plays to win with and our coaches gave BW the lecture, No Ints. and no risky plays. You know they didn't tell him to go out and win the game, whatever way possible. To many news conferences says different. Shurms was so worried about him throwing an Int. he handcuffed him pretty good. Luck did not have those chains.
Dawginit since Jan. 24, 2000 Member #180
You can't fix yesterday but you can learn for tomorrow
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Yes I think it's safe to say he's more durable. He's built more stoutly than Alex Smith.
6'4" 217.. 6'3" 220... I'm not sure there is that big of a difference.. and it depends on how you view durable.. Smith will run more, opening him to injury... Weeden is statuesque which could cause him to take some shots in the pocket.. I'd call this one a draw.. and it's not like Weeden is a 23 year old kid that is still going to put on 10-15 pounds.. I think both of these guys are at their final destination physically.
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Bottom line for me is Brandon Weeden has more tools to work with as a pocket passer than Alex Smith does.
See, this is where my train gets derailed... Alex Smith is smarter, currently more accurate and more mobile.. but you think Weeden has better upside... In my book, those are the 3 most important factors in being an NFL QB.. and I'm not talking academic intelligence here... if that was the case, Ryan Fitzpatrick would be an all-pro.
I'm not arguing that Weeden can't be better than Smith, I'm not arguing whether Smith would be good here.. I'm just trying to figure out why people claim Weeden's ceiling is so much higher... From what I've seen, Weeden is a very pure thrower of the football when he has time to set his feet and step into a throw.... I just don't see anything else in his game that makes me go, "Wow, even with less talent than the 49ers have, I can see this guy going 13-3 and getting to within a few plays of the super bowl."
I am however, willing to give him at least another year to prove me wrong... and I hope I am wrong.. because I really really do want a QB that I can believe in.
yebat' Putin
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How many yrs. has AS been in the NFL? Yet we keep comparing BW to vets and wonder how much better the vets are, if so, how much? I find that funny.
I find it funny that as has been in the NFL for 8 years and is still younger than BW.
Hunter + Dart = This is the way.
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Alex Smith Floor is better than Weeden's ceiling right now.
Gonna use this as a jumping-off point.
If we're going by pure physical ability, Weeden's ceiling is probably higher.
But that's where all things stop being equal.
Too many people forget just how long the odds are against Weeden ever becoming a top-end QB because of his age. Players like Weeden, who come to the NFL with flaws, almost always take several years before they are able to put it together, and unfortunately for all of us, including Weeden, he's going to be 30 during his 2nd season. If one accepts that it takes an NFL QB 4-6 years to reach his peak, Weeden will never see his peak because he won't be given that kind of time.
It's unfortunate, but it's also reality.
Taking this a step further, Smith has shown that he can achieve his ceiling. His two-year totals are excellent.
Can we say that Weeden is likely to reach his ceiling? No, we can't. In fact, the odds are against that happening at all.
So are two birds in the bush worth more than the one in the hand?
We would know what we have in Smith the instant we trade for him. We have no idea what we have in Weeden, and for those that say "Hey, we can go get a QB next year if Weeden doesn't work out" I ask this question:
How many times have we said that since '99, only to find that we are still looking for a QB fifteen years later?
Smith may not be a top-5 QB, but it can easily be argued he's top-10, and if we acquired him, we are only a few pieces away from being a playoff team. If Weeden doesn't make it, we are a few players and THE most important position away.
I think a small investment to get Smith is a no-brainer should one look at it in an unbiased fashion.
I'm for keeping Weeden, but I'm not against getting Smith. If we look at it through glasses not colored Brown, it should be easy to accept acquiring a guy like Smith.
What's it worth not to have to worry about the QB position for the next 5 years...
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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All Pro
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How many yrs. has AS been in the NFL? Yet we keep comparing BW to vets and wonder how much better the vets are, if so, how much? I find that funny.
I find it funny that as has been in the NFL for 8 years and is still younger than BW.
Age factors into bigtime as far as his ceiling. I thought it was a major downside for BW unless he could come into the league and wow everyone his first year. I think at this point its obvious he didnt. Statistically he only beat out Sanchez in rating. And Ironically many on this board wanted Sanchez bad when we passed on him.
Many are saying BW only had 16 games thats not enough. But the same detractors said 20 was plenty for McCoy. Does 4 games really make that much a differance? Keep in mind all the pieces added and new OC/system installed without a off season to work out for McCoy. And many of the BW backers were so anti-McCoy. I think it was a horrible move to pick up BW, especially in the 1st round cuz of his age. And ultimately I think that was the deciding factor in firing Heckert.
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People forget that before Harbaugh arrived, Smith was viewed as a complete and total bust....
Yet, a bit of success on a really good team, and the Browns will give up the farm to get him...
I think the bashing of Weeden is a bit premature, I also think Smith may have the same fortune as Cassel did in Kansas City.
I don't know if the light went on, if it was the system or the team surrounding him, but until someone figures it out, he is pyrite...
Welcome back, Joe, we missed you!
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SO I think that I have convinced myself that I would rather have Smith than Weeden as my Qb next season because of his ability to read defenses. I think Weeden is 2 years away from being able to adequately read defense - especially a pittsburgh or baltimore defense.
Then the question becomes (to those that prefer Smith to Weeden), do I make a trade offer or do I sit back and wait to see if SF releases Smith?
Am I perfect? No
Am I trying to be a better person?
Also no
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2nd String
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SO I think that I have convinced myself that I would rather have Smith than Weeden as my Qb next season because of his ability to read defenses. I think Weeden is 2 years away from being able to adequately read defense - especially a pittsburgh or baltimore defense.
Then the question becomes (to those that prefer Smith to Weeden), do I make a trade offer or do I sit back and wait to see if SF releases Smith?
If we could get him for a 3rd rounder and a player or a 2014 2nd rounder I would do it instantly.
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No way do I trade any sort of pick for a QB with a salary that's eight times the salary of our current starting QB over the next two seasons and who is lucky to be a top-15 QB (despite Toad's insistence that he's easily top 10).
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SO I think that I have convinced myself that I would rather have Smith than Weeden as my Qb next season because of his ability to read defenses. I think Weeden is 2 years away from being able to adequately read defense - especially a pittsburgh or baltimore defense.
Then the question becomes (to those that prefer Smith to Weeden), do I make a trade offer or do I sit back and wait to see if SF releases Smith?
If one sits back hoping that the Niners will release him, that team will be out of luck.
The Niners know they have the only available legitimate starting QB which can be had in this off-season, and they aren't going to just let him go out of the kindness of their hearts.
It's early in the process, but it's my feeling that his value is going to be equivalent to a high 2nd round pick. The teams that really need a QB all have high 1st round picks and I think that just might be a bit too much.
So what's solving the QB issue for 5 years worth to each of us? It was worth a 1st round pick by Holmgren and Heckert and many loved it and that guy was going to be 29 as a rookie, yet a 1st for a guy...a PROVEN guy...in Smith isn't? If that guy could be had for a 2nd rounder, and the team that offers it doesn't have to worry about the position for 4 or 5 seasons, what's the hang-up? Just because he wasn't drafted by the Browns? Really, the loyalty card?
The team that acquires Smith is getting a proven guy. The only real question is how much is too much?
What's the fair price for buying the services of a player who falls into that very-good category that includes guys like Schaub and Romo?
Would a 2nd rounder REALLY be that much to spend?
I'm not totally down on Weeden, but if I'm given the option of sending a 2nd rounder for a proven guy who is the same age as the unproven Weeden, I probably make that deal.
If Smith was coming off of only one season of goodness, it would be much harder to consider sending a 2nd rounder for him, but not only is he coming off a 2nd good season, it was really a great season. He had gotten better.
Again, I'll ask this question: To fix the QB position for the next 5 years, how much is too much? Holmgren and others thought a 1st wasn't too much, and that was for a totally unproven guy. So what's a proven guy worth...
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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No way do I trade any sort of pick for a QB with a salary that's eight times the salary of our current starting QB over the next two seasons and who is lucky to be a top-15 QB (despite Toad's insistence that he's easily top 10).
Oh god he makes like 8-10 million dollars a year or something, that's ridiculous to pay a quarterback and we clearly don't have that cap space!
I'll just settle for having the qb with the second worst qb rating and is older than the qb we could get who was playing the best football of his career this season.
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No way do I trade any sort of pick for a QB with a salary that's eight times the salary of our current starting QB over the next two seasons and who is lucky to be a top-15 QB (despite Toad's insistence that he's easily top 10).
Oh god he makes like 8-10 million dollars a year or something, that's ridiculous to pay a quarterback and we clearly don't have that cap space!
I'll just settle for having the qb with the second worst qb rating and is older than the qb we could get who was playing the best football of his career this season.
This is how I feel as well. The Browns have a projected $50 million in cap room. Gotta use it on someone. I hope we go out and use some of that room now that we're changing schemes and have young talent. If Smith can be had for $8 mill a year then I think he'll be worth it because he'll either a) give Weeden all that he can handle b) in the worse case scenario serve as a reliable #2. For $8 million, I think that's reasonable
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they aren't going to just let him go out of the kindness of their hearts.
Not out of the goodness of their hearts but for the goodness of their pocket book. Take this with a grain of salt because I am going from memory and it is too late and I am too tired to look for a link but...
I seem to recall that if Smith is on their roster the 3rd day of the football year (March 14?) then he gets a one million dollar roster bonus. And if he is traded he counts 1-2 million against their cap whereas he counts nothing against the cap if he is released.
Am I perfect? No
Am I trying to be a better person?
Also no
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the day Brandon Weeden completes a season with a passer rating above 95.00 I will eat crow. I don't ever seen that happening. His book is closed
It should never have been opened. The book on Brandon Weeden was really Pandora's Box for the Cleveland Browns.
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The problem is this: Smith is not just $8 million. He is $8 million and a pretty good draft pick. Our 2nd round pick was used on Josh Gordon, so it might cost us multiple picks. At this point I don't want to give up valuable picks for a QB (or any player) who might be good.
Smith flourished under Harbaugh and his very conservative offense. The attacking offense described by Chud doesn't seem like the best fit for Smith.
I don't know if the answer to our QB problems is on our roster. I also don't know if the answer to our QB problems is Alex Smith.
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Oh god he makes like 8-10 million dollars a year or something, that's ridiculous to pay a quarterback and we clearly don't have that cap space!
I'll just settle for having the qb with the second worst qb rating and is older than the qb we could get who was playing the best football of his career this season.
I'll take the mediocre 29-year-old QB who makes $750k over the mediocre 29-year-old QB who makes $7.5 million every day of the week. That's not to mention what we'd have to give up to get him. And him "solving the QB position for the next 5 years"? Laughable.
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Alex Smith looked good in Harbaugh's system but would he look good in Turner/Chud's?
Personally I doubt it, knowing our track record. But who knows it could be the right fit, although I'm not all that excited to see it happen.
Last edited by Psydeffect; 02/01/13 01:16 AM.
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I seem to recall that if Smith is on their roster the 3rd day of the football year (March 14?) then he gets a one million dollar roster bonus. And if he is traded he counts 1-2 million against their cap whereas he counts nothing against the cap if he is released.
Let's take that as gospel and go with it. What's a fair asking price for a 2nd round pick? How much money would a team willingly give up to acquire another high pick to restock the roster?
If I were an owner of a $1 billion dollar franchise, I'd be willing to pay a couple of million dollars for a high draft pick. 
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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If Smith can be had for $8 mill a year then I think he'll be worth it because he'll either a) give Weeden all that he can handle b) in the worse case scenario serve as a reliable #2. For $8 million, I think that's reasonable
Alex Smith's $7.5 million base salary for 2013 will be top 15 for QBs, after Palmer and Vick are cut (or even if they're not) and Flacco gets a new deal. You want them to pay a backup top 15 money?
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Oh god he makes like 8-10 million dollars a year or something, that's ridiculous to pay a quarterback and we clearly don't have that cap space!
I'll just settle for having the qb with the second worst qb rating and is older than the qb we could get who was playing the best football of his career this season.
I'll take the mediocre 29-year-old QB who makes $750k over the mediocre 29-year-old QB who makes $7.5 million every day of the week. That's not to mention what we'd have to give up to get him. And him "solving the QB position for the next 5 years"? Laughable.
Do not even call both Weeden and Smith both mediocre. Weeden isn't even in the same league as Smith and is still older, while Smith has what, 6 or 7 years of NFL experience over him?
Also, its not like the MLB, cap space is meant to be spent, and with how much we've spent investing 8 million on a QUARTERBACK isn't that bad.
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Smith is a mediocre QB. And is a whopping 200 days younger than Weeden.
Giving up a high draft pick for the privilege of paying a mediocre QB top-15 money is moronic.
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Smith is a mediocre QB. And is a whopping 200 days younger than Weeden.
Giving up a high draft pick for the privilege of paying a mediocre QB top-15 money is moronic.
So it comes back to the question of where does Alex Smith rank?
Here's a great starting point:
Ron Jaworski ranks Alex Smith
(Note the date: June 25th)
Some things that Jaws noted in his breakdown:
Alex Smith had the fewest pass attempts of any starter who played 16 games in 2011, but also had the lowest interception percentage in the league regardless. Jaworski went on to credit Jim Harbaugh for understanding "Smith's strengths and limitations."
He also mentioned that the majority of Smith's 20-plus yard completions came on first down, particularly out of their base personnel. He applauded Smith for anticipating coverage's in 2011, citing several examples where the 49ers quarterback cut it loose while the play was still developing.
Jaworski identified the wheel route as one of the throws that is a strength of Smith's. During his video analysis of the route, Jaws pointed to the "excellent touch" and "consistent accuracy" to which Smith throws that pattern. I found this to be a solid finding by Jaworski, as 49ers fans know well about this route's presence in the playbook.
The final most interesting thing Jaws illustrated about the 49ers quarterback was how he performed in the post-season. He cited how Smith read the blitz in the playoffs, and "pulled the trigger on tight-window throws."
Overall, Jaworski thought Smith played at a "very high level in 2011" and expects the 49ers QB to be even better in '12.
After Smith's 2011 campaign, Jaworski ranked him 16th. I believe that was fair.
In 2012 his rating went from 90 to 104.
So I believe that puts Smith right around the 10th slot.
What's a fair price to acquire the 10th best QB in the NFL who will turn 29 in May?
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Joe Flacco
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Matt Schaub
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Colin Kaepernick
Russell Wilson
Cam Newton
Philip Rivers
Jay Cutler
Matthew Stafford
Josh Freeman
Which of these QBs would be traded straight up for Alex Smith if money/cap ramifications weren't an issue?
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All of those guys you mentioned are definitely better than Smith. You can also throw Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, and Andy Dalton on that list because of their youth.
Any time you can trade for the 20th best QB in the NFL you have to do it.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 15,077
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 15,077 |
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The only real question is how much is too much?
IMHO, the cost of playing in the "QB Sweepstakes" is higher than a team with this many holes can afford to pay.... both now, and with future picks.
We ain't there yet, with ANY position.
Bottom line: Heckert payed many of our dues... but he didn't pay ALL of them.
I don't care if it's a FA Lockdown Corner, Pass-rush Specialist, Ray Lewis-type LB, or Larry (freakkin') Fitzgerald... you don't bet The Farm on one position, when you still have substantial holes to fill in your over-all line-up.
You keep building through the draft (even if you're now relying on guys like Mike Lombadi/Banner/Haslam to do it for you... and it almost makes me vomit to type this...)
IMHO, we aren't at that point where we can trade picks for players.... because we still need rank-and fileplayers to even be competitive.
We have holes at G on the OLine. We have LB holes, now that we're transitioning from 4-3 to 3-4. We still don't have a compliment to Haden at the other corner position. Any or all of these spots could be filled by draft or FA... but not all... not in one off-season.
Know what I'm sayin'?
At this point, I'd much rather go with what Weedz has in potential... and watch to see what the combo of Chud/Norm can get from him.... for at least one more year. Weedz reminds me of DA with slightly better 'touch' on short routes)... and Chud's O scheme got even him to propel us to a 10/6 season. With Chud AND Norm, could they both help Weedz to transcend his ceiling... and make this O work? I'd be willing to invest a year to see if it could happen, while we take a pass on this year's crop of potential QB's.
With my scenario, you:
1. Get a chance to see what Weedz might look like in an O that's designed for his strengths
2. Save cap space for other needs,
3. Give the team options for FA that would be eaten up (entirely) with a high-profile QB acquisition that isn't a guaranteed lock (like Peyton Manning seemed to be for Denver).
Clemmy passes on Smith.... and uses picks to 'build the team."
....because "we ain't there," yet.
Disclaimer: My "There" may not b the same as others' "there," yo- It's all good, in discussion-
"too many notes, not enough music-"
#GMStong
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Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 802
All Pro
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All Pro
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 802 |
Toad, he is NOT the 10th best QB in the league. He's the second-best on his own team. He has never thrown 20 TDs in a season. Weeden is pretty likely to do that next year of he's the starter. Smith does not have a strong enough arm for the Lake.
He's a good guy, but the "game manager" tag fits pretty well. He was finally putting it together given his brains and fairly meager skills in a situation that made his job pretty easy. But if he's an upgrade for us, he isn't much of an upgrade, and he is not likely to be the guy who brings us all the way back.
I say we keep our powder dry (draft picks and cap room). We need to sign or draft an OG, a CB and a couple of LBs and we can win 10 games. We'll find our longterm QB - look where Kaepernick was picked.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,761
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,761 |
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Oh god he makes like 8-10 million dollars a year or something, that's ridiculous to pay a quarterback and we clearly don't have that cap space!
I'll just settle for having the qb with the second worst qb rating and is older than the qb we could get who was playing the best football of his career this season.
Yeah, Weeden is the guy that we saw in the Philly game, who cares that his QB rating since week 2 is 79, his yds/PA close to 7 and a slightly positive TD/INT.
That first game murdered his stats and people still act as if the Weeden we saw in that game is the Weeden we have today. The truth is that the "up and down" Weeden we saw from week 2 to 16 is the "real" Weeden as of now. The same posters that called for improvement run back to his first game to make a point...yeah, that's consistent, lol
I've posted his numbers on here numerous times. Weeden had a Bradford like rookie season and better than both Mannings and numerous other "name" QBs. Since week 2 he has better numbers than Tannehill and even Luck, but who cares...he is 29yo. That's so freaking dumb, that I've given up debating it. Can't convince dumbness
Ask any Dolphins fan if he wants Smith over Tannehill so he can win 1 or 2 more games in 2013
Why would we want it? Are we a SB team in 2013? Probably not, so why even TRADE for Smith for Weeden? What good does a move like this mid/long term? If Weeden booms? Great, we have our QB. If Weeden busts out, we have a very good shot at a franchise QB in next year's draft. If we trade for Smith and he's "ok" and we win 7-8 games...you think we're going to get a shot at a top3 or even 5 QBs without paying a high price?
Posters willing to give up a top10 pick for him is all I need to know about their clue of the league. A top10 pick is a franchise player. Smith was drafted to be one and never was for 5 years, then he was "ok" for 2 seasons and now the same team that drafted him unseated him. You think they think he's a franchise player? Why should we?
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
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Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,805
Dawg Talker
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Dawg Talker
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,805 |
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The problem is this: Smith is not just $8 million. He is $8 million and a pretty good draft pick. Our 2nd round pick was used on Josh Gordon, so it might cost us multiple picks. At this point I don't want to give up valuable picks for a QB (or any player) who might be good.
Smith flourished under Harbaugh and his very conservative offense. The attacking offense described by Chud doesn't seem like the best fit for Smith.
I don't know if the answer to our QB problems is on our roster. I also don't know if the answer to our QB problems is Alex Smith.
Someone said pick up Smith and draft his potential successor. And I will say this again.
We can do the same thing with Weeden. Saving picks. And we don't have a 2nd rounder this year. And big money if Frisco outright releases him and he becomes a free target on the open market which means new contract. And don't think for a minute that contract won't be huge. His agent will use the exact same card as Toad is referring to.
I believe Smith will end up in KC, Jax or Zona. Possibly Buffalo.
It will be interesting to see what Turner sees on Weeden when breaking down film. He made mistakes and missed seeing open receivers quite a bit. Bad reads and so forth. One full year of experience and the tuteledge of Turner showing him what he was missing on could prove to be huge for Weeden.
Also. And this is a big one. He seemed to lose alot of the accuracy he showed in college. Some due to being a Rook. They almost all lose that accuracy in the first year. This may just be from a simple hitch in his delivery that Turner can fix.
Under Turner's eye, if Weeden can get that accuracy at or above 65%, his YPA will most certainly approach 7.5 in this style of offense. And if you look at all the greats that are still in the game, and you know who they are, when they hit those marks that is when their collective offenses began to take off.
I'll say it right now. If Turner can get Weeden's accuracy and YPA into that range, and we get 3 or 4 FA's and either that OLB or CB depending on what we land in FA, this team will be challenging for a playoff spot THIS YEAR.
And we can still get the future QB to groom either this year or next. Saving picks and a huge contract. Smith won't come cheap either way.
Just say NO.
And someone else said we can pay Smith as much as 8M a year to compete and if he's our #2 so be it. That's insane.
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Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,643
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,643 |
If we can get Smith as a free agent Im all for it. I dont want to give up our draft picks for him though.
Why does everyone care about what we pay him. We have to spend more of our cap, and how often are we even close to having cap trouble?
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Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 5,620
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 5,620 |
Quote:
After Smith's 2011 campaign, Jaworski ranked him 16th. I believe that was fair.
In 2012 his rating went from 90 to 104.
So I believe that puts Smith right around the 10th slot.
What's a fair price to acquire the 10th best QB in the NFL who will turn 29 in May?
OK, let's say he is at about the 10th spot (which I don't think). Does that mean he would be the 10th best QB on any team? In any system? If he goes to a team that does not have the talent he has played with the last two years, does not have the same coaches or system he played with the last two years, will he automatically be the same QB he was the last two years? Or would he look more like the bust he seemed to be the years before that?
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,806
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,806 |
Quote:
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Joe Flacco
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Matt Schaub
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Colin Kaepernick
Russell Wilson
Cam Newton
Philip Rivers
Jay Cutler
Matthew Stafford
Josh Freeman
Which of these QBs would be traded straight up for Alex Smith if money/cap ramifications weren't an issue?
Quote:
All of those guys you mentioned are definitely better than Smith. You can also throw Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, and Andy Dalton on that list because of their youth.
cfrs - the only thing the Qb's you added have over Smith is age. You could argue them based on potential but as of now none of those 3 are better than Smith.
As for Adams list, I would put Smith over Freeman and equivalent to Cutler and Rivers meaning that if they were my QB I wouldn't trade them for Smith but if Smith was my Qb I wouldn't trade him for them.
I like Romo myself but if you ask people in Dallas a lot would give serious consideration to getting rid of him. And many Houston folks feel that way about Schaub. Both guys with too much inconsistency and complete lack of big game performance. If Smith has been anything these past 2 seasons it has been consistent and some of his best games were the playoff games.
You list 19 QB's. Remove the 3 I list and you are down to 16. Remove Romo/Schaub and it is 14. Then you could say that the rookies don't count because many guys have one good year and then fizzle out. Luck's numberes the last 3rd of the season were pedestrian. Wilson has the knee injury. Teams will figure out how to defense the pistol this off-season etc etc. Now you are at 10
So in 'Toad's defense he didn't state that Smith was a top 10 Qb. If you look back he said that you could argue that he was. There is your argument. Not a strong one but still...
Am I perfect? No
Am I trying to be a better person?
Also no
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,806
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,806 |
Quote:
If we can get Smith as a free agent Im all for it. I dont want to give up our draft picks for him though.
Why does everyone care about what we pay him. We have to spend more of our cap, and how often are we even close to having cap trouble?
I would agree with that. If we can get him as a FA I sign him. If we have to trade our 2nd round pick in 2014 I don't. Still trying to figure out how much I would give up (if anything) to get Smith. I suppose that I would give up a 7th rounder. I would probably do a 6th rounder. I might go as high as a 5th. If I factor in Lombardi as our primary talent evaluator, then I would definitely trade a 5th. If HEckert or myself or DJ or Throw Deep or or Cleve or... is the primary talent evaluator then I probably don't offer a 5th.
Now would that be enough to get Smith? I don't know but I don't panic and start adding multiple picks.
Am I perfect? No
Am I trying to be a better person?
Also no
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 8,015
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 8,015 |
Quote:
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Joe Flacco
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Matt Schaub
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Colin Kaepernick
Russell Wilson
Cam Newton
Philip Rivers
Jay Cutler
Matthew Stafford
Josh Freeman
Which of these QBs would be traded straight up for Alex Smith if money/cap ramifications weren't an issue?
Money and cap ramifications are an issue, and many of those QB's are older and at or near the end of their careers.
How many of those QB's are available?
It's not every year that a legitimate starter hits the market.
The other side poses the question: If Smith comes here and doesn't have the same talent he had there, will he revert back to the failed QB he was his first few years?
What if Schaub did? What if Rivers played here, how would he look? What about Romo or Stafford?
One can also argue that many of those QB's you listed aren't as good as Smith. Stafford threw for a ton of yards but had a passer rating of 79.8, and he had Megatron to throw to.
There are a ton of people who would trade Rivers straight-up for him today.
Freeman is bordering on being allowed to walk as a free agent.
As for the Brady's and Manning's and Brees's, nobody is saying he's as good as they are.
Remove the top 6 or 7 ranked QB's and now you have a comparable list.
Is Smith in the same range as the Romo's and Schaub's of the league? His numbers over the last two seasons say yes, but the key here is that he's available.
Why aren't those players you noted available? Because those teams have no interest in trading QB's who are established. The Niners would have never drafted Kaepernick had they known Smith was going to do what he did. Smith showed up after Kap was drafted, and became available because of Harbaugh's vision in seeing what Kap was capable of.
Smith isn't an elite QB, but he is a very good one. He played more than well enough to get to the Super Bowl last season. Kyle Williams' fumbles were the key reason the Niners lost.
I'm also going to dispel this ridiculous notion that Smith can't play in Turner's offense.
Take Philip Rivers and put him in a Jets uniform from the beginning of his career. Now make him a free agent and ask yourselves this: Can an average-armed QB like Rivers survive in a vertical offense? Hell no.
Yet Rivers did just fine in Turner's offense.
If you can spin the ball and are accurate, you can play in any offense. If Alex Smith is truly accurate, he can play in Turner's offense. Weeden? Good question.
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JESTER- I wouldn't trade them for Smith but if Smith was my Qb I wouldn't trade him for them.
That's the rub.
Teams with established QB's know the grass isn't always greener. When you finally have a good QB starting you don't let him go. The Niners just happen to have a guy that has "elite" written all over him, making Smith available.
Teams wouldn't trade their own starters because of them being locked in with the system and the organization.
The grass isn't always greener if you have a legit starter. Nobody can say they know that Weeden is a legit starter. He's a huge question mark and he's going to be 30 this season. In our case, the grass probably is greener so it comes down to cost.
A high 1st rounder? Probably not. A 2nd rounder? Now it gets interesting...
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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