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Toad, you're repeating your Campbell mis-evaluation
Similar player, similar path. Whoever is buying Smith now is buying HIGH, probably his peak. Factor in a new system/terminology, probably lesser talent around him (hard to get to that running help he got with Gore and that OL) and it's ALL downhill from here on out. 49ers are selling high and I hope we aren't the stupid teams to buy high.
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The other side poses the question: If Smith comes here and doesn't have the same talent he had there, will he revert back to the failed QB he was his first few years?
What if Schaub did? What if Rivers played here, how would he look? What about Romo or Stafford?
...and if Weeden had better support here in Cleveland, wouldn't his rookie performance be expected to be "better" than it was?
What if Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson or RGII played in Cleveland, would there rookie performances be less impressive?
Any QB who played with the least experienced offensive unit in the NFL, which the Browns offense was last season... would be expected to have an outstanding performance here in Cleveland.
The offensive unit will get better with experience and as more weapons are developed or added...and I'm not speaking of the QB.
I hope this new coaching staff has the ability to teach and develop our young talent.
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we were running a system better suited for Alex Smith last year and he was available as a FA then as well (as the 49ers were chasing Peyton).
so, how often does an Alex Smith go on the market? apparently every offseason.
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now, I won't be upset if the 49ers "do right" by Alex Smith and let him go and we pick him up to compete with Weeden. I just don't see a guy who is a premier QB (in either guy, so as long as we don't pay too high a price, I'm fine either way).
#gmstrong
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So in 'Toad's defense he didn't state that Smith was a top 10 Qb. If you look back he said that you could argue that he was. There is your argument. Not a strong one but still...
He has stated in another discussion on the topic that "Smith ... is a top-10 QB" here.
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Remove the top 6 or 7 ranked QB's and now you have a comparable list.
You concede then that are 6 or 7 QBs who are unequivocally better than Smith? I agree with that, certainly.
So what you're saying, then is that of this list:
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Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Matt Schaub
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Colin Kaepernick
Russell Wilson
Cam Newton
Philip Rivers
Jay Cutler
Matthew Stafford
Josh Freeman
No more than two of these QBs are better than Smith? Because to be a top-10 QB, which you've stated Smith is, there can't be more than 9 QBs who are better than you.
I'd argue you' have to add Colin Kaepernick to that list, because if Smith was better than Kaepernick he would've gotten his job back once he recovered from being injured. I expect you'll tell me though that Harbaugh is just riding Kaepernick's hot hand even though he's not as good a QB.
So removing Kaepernick from that list, there is only one QB who is better than Alex Smith. Which one?
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A high 1st rounder? Probably not. A 2nd rounder? Now it gets interesting...
Unfortunately (or fortunately as the case may be), we don't have a 2nd rounder.
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What makes you think we would "solve" our QB problem for the next 5 years by bringing in Alex Smith? If he plays the same way he played under Turner the last time, we wouldn't solve diddly.
SPD - I don't see a whole ton of Weeden "love." Just people who are making fair arguments as to why bringing in Smith is not the better option.
Blue ostriches on crack float on milkshakes between the sidewalk titans of gurglefitz. --YTown
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I think I'll throw my hat into the ring.
Before you read my next sentence, promise that you will continue reading the sentences following it.
If my choice is between Alex Smith and Brandon Weeden, I choose Brandon Weeden all day every day.
"Why?" you ask, either inquisitively or incredulously.
The answer is simple.
We know what Alex Smith is now. With good coaching, he is a very efficient game manager. He won't turn the ball over all that often, and he won't lose games for you, but he isn't going to go out and win games for you either. This is the determination Harbaugh made when he switched from Smith to Kaepernick mid-season.
I believe Brandon Weeden has both a higher ceiling in what he can do for a team and a lower floor in how he can hurt the team with his play. So, either he will improve dramatically with better coaching and we win more games and make the playoffs as a result, or he will fail miserably, hopefully so miserably as to give us a chance at picking a great QB next year in what looks to possibly be an extremely deep class between guys like Bridgewater, Boyd, and Manziel being able to come out.
Weeden is win-win as long as he isn't mediocre!
Here's to next year, hopefully either a rousing success or a miserable failure which will lead to a rousing success!
Cheers!
Proud fan of the Pulaski Academy football strategy.
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I don't like the idea, but I imagine that Seattle would dump Matt Flynn for next to nothing.
Also with Chud coming back to town I think a good question to ask is whether Derek Anderson was better in 07-08 than Wheeden.
All the Alex Smith talk is making wonder if his agent has 3 or 4 accounts on here.
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Toad, you're repeating your Campbell mis-evaluation
Similar player, similar path.
Anyone that thinks Campbell and Smith are similar players should be hocking stuffed animals at Mexican Church Carnivals instead of talking football.
Campbell was someone I touted as a stop-gap to take snaps while we drafted a guy in the same year to take over.
Smith is a guy you can count on for several years.
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Whoever is buying Smith now is buying HIGH, probably his peak.
When a legitimate starting QB hits the market in his prime with several years left in him, and when you don't have a QB, you buy high. There is no "buying low." 
Taking a 29-year old rookie with a 1st round pick is buying low because of the risk.
As anyone will tell you: Don't be afraid to pay for quality. Smith is quality, so you have pay for it.
Any QB who completes 70% of his passes in a season is a guy that gets it done based on talent and ability, not just on supporting cast. When it's all said and done, a QB still has to make the reads and make the throws.
But don't take my word for it. Take Jaworski's.
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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we were running a system better suited for Alex Smith last year and he was available as a FA then as well (as the 49ers were chasing Peyton).
so, how often does an Alex Smith go on the market? apparently every offseason.
In the eyes of the league, the Alex Smith of 2011 is viewed not nearly in the favorable light as the Alex Smith of the 2012 season.
One year can be a fluke. The second year with much improved play is validation.
The number of suitors for Smith will tell exactly how highly he's viewed now.
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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Quote:
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we were running a system better suited for Alex Smith last year and he was available as a FA then as well (as the 49ers were chasing Peyton).
so, how often does an Alex Smith go on the market? apparently every offseason.
In the eyes of the league, the Alex Smith of 2011 is viewed not nearly in the favorable light as the Alex Smith of the 2012 season.
One year can be a fluke. The second year with much improved play is validation.
The number of suitors for Smith will tell exactly how highly he's viewed now.
while throwing for 173yds/game in 2012 and losing his starting job
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So removing Kaepernick from that list, there is only one QB who is better than Alex Smith. Which one?
See, that's the problem with perception.
People will say that Cutler is better than Smith. Why? Arm-strength?
Jay Cutler has never had a QB rating in the 90's. Surprised? I was. He's more tools than production.
Schaub? If both players hit free agency right now I would pose that teams would be hard-pressed to tell you he's now clearly better than Smith.
Stafford? He throws for a ton of yards, but that doesn't make him a better QB.
Too many people are falling in love with yards or arm-strength. Alex Smith's production over the last two seasons match up with most of the players on that list.
Again, If Jaworski had him at 16 after the 2011 season, there's no doubt he'd move up after his 2012 season.
And for the record, anybody that says a guy is "top 15" is always saying that player is ranked around that number.
If I say Tom Brady is a "top 10 guy" I would get destroyed for saying it. Let's not start quibbling over ridiculous semantics.
If you take Smith's numbers over the last two seasons they'll match up quite well against guys who are subjectively ranked 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, etc etc.
While this is fun trying to poke holes in statements, the real question remains: If your QB is a soon-to-be 30 year old Brandon Weeden coming off an underwhelming season and you have a chance to acquire a guy who had a solid 2011 and a borderline great 2012, do you go after him, and if so at what cost?
What I know is that for the last 14 seasons the fans of Cleveland have said "let's just give this guy one more year. If he doesn't work we can go get a QB next year."
We haven't yet absolutely found that QB. Well, here's a chance to get one.
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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If Smith can be had for $8 mill a year then I think he'll be worth it because he'll either a) give Weeden all that he can handle b) in the worse case scenario serve as a reliable #2. For $8 million, I think that's reasonable
Alex Smith's $7.5 million base salary for 2013 will be top 15 for QBs, after Palmer and Vick are cut (or even if they're not) and Flacco gets a new deal. You want them to pay a backup top 15 money?
Which is why I said worst case scenario. I am 98% sure he'd easily beat out Weeden.
Smith is head and shoulders better than Weeden. I don't think it's even close. And he's younger than Weeden. And I don't really think it'll take as high a pick as you seem to think to get him.
To me Weeden is a worse Derek Anderson. If you want Anderson, you can just sign him. The sad thing is he's the same age as Weeden. 
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What makes you think we would "solve" our QB problem for the next 5 years by bringing in Alex Smith? If he plays the same way he played under Turner the last time, we wouldn't solve diddly.
I would suggest it's grossly unfair to compare the Alex Smith of 2007 under Turner to the Alex Smith of 2012 who is 5 years removed from Turner.
If we were looking at acquiring the Alex Smith of 2011, I wouldn't even be considering it, at least not in terms of a trade. To compete with Weeden as an acquired free agent? Sure.
But Smith blew the "flash in a pan" theory out of the water by having a breakout 2012. He got better, not worse.
However, let's say we got a player who wasn't quite as great as Smith was in 2012. I wouldn't expect him to be that great again. If he shows up somewhere between the guy he was in 2011 and the guy in 2012, which is very realistic considering how well our line pass-blocked as well as the development of Little and Morgan, then what is that worth?
I don't believe he can be considered a one-year wonder. He didn't get worse or stay the same in 2012. He got better. Much better.
The "Weeden love" is less about Weeden himself and more about not wanting to give away draft picks in the hopes that the guy we drafted can develop. That brings me back to a bird in the hand versus 2 in the bush. Do we believe in Weeden, or are we just being tight-fisted with our picks because we over-value them?
If it weren't for Smith's availability I wouldn't be considering bumping Weeds. But after two quality seasons, and one solid one great, I think the Browns would be fools for not at least considering it.
Consider this. McCoy is out. He has no future here. We'd have to acquire another QB anyway. So what's wrong with spending something for Smith and if he flames out we still have Weeds sitting there.
For a team that had the 31st ranked QB in the NFL, that's as good a plan as any.
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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Let's go hypothetical.
Scenario 1: Team A has Matthew Stafford as their QB. Team B has Alex Smith. Team B calls Team A and asks if they will trade Stafford for Alex Smith. Team A laughs into the phone and hangs up on them.
Scenario 2: Team A has Matthew Stafford as their QB. Team B has Alex Smith. Team A calls Team B and asks if they will trade Alex Smith for Stafford. Team B immediately says yes and tries to get the paperwork done as soon as possible so Team A can't change their mind.
This situation is also applicable with Jay Cutler. If Stafford or Cutler ran the conservative 49er offense that Smith did their QB rating would be much higher. But they would never be asked to run that offense because they are capable of much more.
In 2006 Norv Turner was the offensive coordinator for the 49ers. Alex Smith was the QB. Smith's QB rating that year: 74.8. He would probably do better than that now because he has more experience. But I wouldn't expect it to be much better. Smith has been successful the past couple of seasons with the 49ers because of Harbaugh's conservative run the ball or punt offense.
If I am giving up major assets to get a player I want to be reasonably sure that that player is going to be successful. With Smith I would say it is about 50/50.
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Both are comparable in career structure. Disappointing in their first 4 seasons and mediocre in "their best" years
As for 70% comp QB. His career numbers (larger sample size) are 59% and that's pretty fair considering his "good seasons" before last year's were 60.5%, 59.6% and 61.3%.
So acting as if it's the "norm" to expect Smith to produce even close to 70% is laughable at best as 9 starts with 70% and 60+ on the other with around 58-61% clearly show what is the norm and what is the exception
Even taking a closer look at Smith's 2012 stats clearly show him for what he is: a game manager: in a D dominated game vs ARI (24-3 win) when they only had to run the ball and he was managing he was an almost perfect 18 for 19. When you look at his (only) 3 starts he had to throw 30 times or more, you'll see why he still isn't a QB that wins games for your team: 49ers were 1-2 in those games and Smith had a yds/PA of 6.56, that against DET, MIN and NYG...so not exactly "killer" Ds vs the pass.
I wouldn't even take him for a 7th just because of his salary. He's simply not worth it and I can guarantee that he won't be a Top 10 QB at the end of 2013, wherever he's going to start. Dude will make 7.5mil the next 2 seasons. It took the last regime 3 years to get to the cap heaven we're in now and an envy-less locker room due to a strict play-reward oriented management. I think it is no coincidence that this roster kept playing hard till the last play of the season. Yeah, let's throw all of that out the window too while we're at it
Here's another "game manager" fun fact:
Did you know that Alex Smith threw over 300yds just ONCE in 25 starts under Harbaugh? 303yds last season in a 45-3 win vs the Bills. He didn't even reach 240yds in any other of his 8 2012 starts and ecclipsed that mark just 3 times in 16 2011 starts. So in his past 2 "career" seasons Alex Smith threw LESS than 240yds in 21 of his 25 starts. 12 of those 21 starts he didn't throw over 200yds.
He is what he is: a game manager
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Alex Smith is a fine game manager. That is not what the QB in Norv Turner's offense needs to be. Over the past 2 seasons, Smith threw for 195 yards/game.He has thrown a total of 30 TD and 4881 yards. That's over 2 seasons. In 2006, Smith played under Norv Turner. He threw for 2890 yards with 16 TD and 16 INT. That was a complete 16 game season. That was a whopping 180 yards/game, with 1 TD and 1 INT. He does not fit the Norv Turner, aggressive down field throwing offense. He fits an offense like the Harbaugh offense. If Eric Mangini was still the head coach here ... then Smith might fit ..... though even he wanted the QB to be able to attack down the field when the opportunity presented itself. Smith is a "Be careful and don't make a mistake" QB. That's not the Norv Turner offense at all. Let's look at Turner's history. With San Diego, Rivers threw for the following: 2008: 4009 yards, 36 TD, 11 INT 2009: 4254 yards, 28 TD, 9 INT 2010: 4710 yards, 30 TD, 13 INT 2011: 4624 yards, 27 TD, 20 INT 2012: 3606 yards, 26 TD, 15 INT. Does Alex Smith fit this offensive profile? Well, in 2006 Smith played for Turner. He went for 2890 yards, with 16 TD and 16 INT. The Niners went 7-9 that year. Hardly a reminiscent monent in history. He was with the Raiders in 2004 and 2005. How did his QBs do there? He had Kerry Collins in 2005. He threw for 3759 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT. In 2004, Collins threw for 3495 yards, with 21 TD and 20 INT. In 2002 and 2003, Turner was with the Dolphins. In 2002, he had a stellar combination of Jay Fielder and Ray Lucas at QB. They combined for 3069 yards, 18 TD, 15 INT. That's better than Smith did in 2006. In 203, he had the immortal combo of Jay Fielder and Brian Griese. They threw for 3001 yards, with 17 TD and 19 INT. (with a couple of Sage Rosenfelds passes thrown in for good measure) These bums threw for more yards and a comparable TD/INT ratio as Smith did. I don't think that Turner has ever had a QB do less than Alex Smith did for him, in his offense, in 2006. Why would he suddenly become something he has never been in his entire career Smith has never been the backbone of an offense. That's not his game. If we bring him in expecting that of him, this season will be a disaster.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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I would suggest it's grossly unfair to compare the Alex Smith of 2007 under Turner to the Alex Smith of 2012 who is 5 years removed from Turner.
I would suggest it's completely fair. He did not do well under any system except for Harbaugh's, which he is in now. If he came to Cleveland, he would go back to Turner's with Chud at the helm. As we all know, Chud has been known to place a lot on the shoulders of his QBs. It's what got him recognition in 2007 and the same thing that killed him in 2008.
Chances are, if they took Alex Smith, he would be counted on to deliver an attacking style offense, which his history shows would bring most likely a poor outcome. There's not enough history yet to demonstrate Weeden would not succeed in the offense Chud and Turner would use.
The staff bringing in Alex Smith would also effectively be them bringing in "their guy." I think they want to calculate who "their guy" is a little better before throwing the dice on a guy like Smith. If they test their system with someone who is still relatively a work in progress and it doesn't work out after this year, they will be faulted a hell of a lot less than if they bring in "their guy" and it all goes to crap. What's more, they're most likely going to have a big contract with Smith and be married to him for several seasons.
I don't like the idea.
Blue ostriches on crack float on milkshakes between the sidewalk titans of gurglefitz. --YTown
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Over the past 2 seasons, Smith threw for 195 yards/game.
And was replaced by Kaepernick, who has thrown for 140 a game and everybody is in awe...
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I don't think that Turner has ever had a QB do less than Alex Smith did for him, in his offense, in 2006.
He had a lot of them win less than 7 games though... (And Shuler and Frerotte both did in Washington and Fiedler wasn't too far from it.)
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Alex Smith is a fine game manager.
But we need a gunslinger.. we need 5000 yards... go look at the other guys considered to be game managers like Dilfer and the rest and compare their good years with what Alex Smith has done the last 2 years...
Go ask Norv.. I can get you a guy that will complete well over 60% of his passes and have an int% at or under 2... or a guy that completes well under 60% and has an int% north of 3... but he can throw it a long way... which guy do you want?
I'm not saying I know the answer to that question... Rivers numbers in SD under Norv bounced around from 197/game to 295/game.. the year they won 11 games, their second best year with Norv there, was the 197/game year... the 295/game year they were 9-7...
I get the stats and I see your point but Norv's most successful years ever as an OC or HC were in the 90s in Dallas and that was with Aikman throwing for something in the 215/game range.. but if he could win throwing for less and running it more, don't you think he would?
I'm not lobbying for Smith, I don't really want him primarily because of the price tag... but to say Norv wouldn't want him I believe is highly assumptive..
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If you look at Kaepernick's starts, he went for 243, 231, 208, 185, 221, 244, and 276 in the regular season, and for 263 and 233 in the playoffs. That's an average of 234 yards/start.
He played one half game in relief of Smith, in which he threw for 117. In his other "non starts", he threw only 9 passes.
That's quite a difference between the passing yards he put up compared to Smith's passing yards.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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People are in awe of Kaepernick because of his running ability .
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Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Joe Flacco
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Matt Schaub
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Colin Kaepernick
Russell Wilson
Cam Newton
Philip Rivers
Jay Cutler
Matthew Stafford
Josh Freeman
Which of these QBs would be traded straight up for Alex Smith if money/cap ramifications weren't an issue?
I would take Alex Smith over many of them and most have been mentioned already.
But, I would ask two simple questions. The first question is this: Is Alex Smith better than what we have at the QB position on the team now? The second question is this: Is there any QB in the draft that is better than Alex Smith?
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Is Alex Smith better than what we have at the QB position on the team now?
Absolutely.
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The second question is this: Is there any QB in the draft that is better than Alex Smith?
I don't know.
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