DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum 2013-2014 Season Cleveland Browns Record Prediction

My guess is 8-8.

I think the Browns will start very slowly and build momentum throughout the season, culminating in a win streak in December. There's a lot of reasons I believe this.

I'll write about defense first. As you all know, Ray Horton is one of the league's most respected DCs and his 2012 defense finished in the top 5 for PPD (points per defensive drive) — probably the most telling stat for how good a defense is. They also finished 4th in forced turnovers, I believe. Point being that once the players learn his system, I believe the defense will be very good. That's the thing, though. Learning his system isn't easy according to Arizona fans. Ray Horton is known for throwing the kitchen sink at his defenses during TC and hoping that they'll learn his relatively complicated system on the fly. I think the results of him doing this can be seen by evaluating the 2011 Cardinals season, in which the defense struggled at first and vastly improved over the second-half of the season (leading to a 7-2 finish). It takes a while to learn his system and work out the kinks, but once his players master it, their play seems to improve immensely. Now in regards to individual personnel, there's only one gaping hole. We have to consider that a rookie CB drafted in the 3rd round will likely be asked to start on day one of the season. Rookie CBs drafted in the 1st round usually struggle, so I'll be surprised if McFadden isn't routinely being burned throughout at least the first parts of the season. He should improve in time though, which again leads me to believe that the defense and team itself will finish the season strong.

OK, now onto the offense. Again, new system. Norv's offense isn't all that complicated (and I'm guessing the offense will resemble Norv's offenses in San Diego more than Chud's in Charlotte — which outside of some plays designed for Cam's mobility, are rather similar), but I still doubt Weeden is going to be setting the world on fire from the start of the season. He should improve over time, though. I also think that like the last time Norv worked with an elite RB (LT) and QB learning a new system (Rivers), Cleveland will run the ball a lot. I'm expecting 300+ carries for TRich, like LT was given in 2007 with the above described circumstances. With the pressure being taken off Weeden, the development of his young receivers, the outstanding pass blocking here, and the excellent resumes of his coaches when given the right personnel, I do believe Weeden will improve vastly. I'm personally expecting a little under 4,000 yards and maybe a high-80s QB rating, but we'll see. If he doesn't hit those numbers, he shouldn't have a job as a starting QB in the NFL because the supporting cast here is far too good for any decent QB to struggle like he has in the past. But I digress. All in all, I think the offense, like the defense, will end up being very good by the end of season. The kinks will have to be worked out, though.

My prediction of 8-8 with a strong finish is also based on the past performances of our coaches' teams. From 2007-2012 (Norv's years in SD), the Chargers always finished strong at the end of season. Rivers' record with Norv at the helm in December is actually 24-5. Last year (Chud's second year in Carolina), Chud's offense improved significantly as the season wore on, culminating in four straight victories to end the season. In 2011 (Horton's first year in Arizona), Horton's defense improved significantly during the second-half of the season and the Cardinals closed the season with a 7-2 record. For those of you who don't see where I'm going with this, there's a pattern forming here. Being that Norv ended every year in SD exceptionally well and both Chud and Horton ended one of their two seasons as coordinators in much better fashion than they than had began said seasons, I don't think it would be a stretch to see the Browns end the 2013-2014 season in a strong fashion. Patterns in the NFL oftentimes do repeat themselves.

Of course, 8-8 would very likely result in the Browns missing the POs. This is okay, though. The FO is clearly in it for the long-haul, or at least that's what the drafting of Mingo over Milliner and the trading for future draft picks tells me. The point of this season, IMO, is to figure out what we have in Weeden and work out the kinks for future seasons. The POs will come in time (definitely in 2014 IMO).

Anyhow, what's your prediction for Cleveland's record this year? And does anyone else think a slow start and a strong finish is in the cards?

Good post.

My lowball prediction would be 3-13, my everything goes right prediction is 12-4, so I'll say 7-9 or 8-8 and just missing the playoffs is the most likely scenario.

The biggest reason for improvement will be a hard commitment to the running game instead of completely abandoning it as soon as we fall behind or if it is ineffective early in the game. It sounds stupid, but the best way to succeed at running is simply continuing to run, kind of a snowball effect.

I cannot see us winning more than 6 games this season. We do not have a QB and our secondary is probably one of the worst cover units in the AFC. And this is now a throwing league, so that isn't a good combo.

I'll say we end up 4-12 or 5-11 and land between pick 5 and 10 in the draft next year ... just in the right spot to not land the QB that we want.

j/c I don't predict numbers, but I will say that I have a great deal more faith (and optimism) in this coaching staff than the one ran by Pat Shurmur...

5-11, 6-10 around in there!

I'm going to be ridiculously optimistic for the first time in several years. I predict Chud gets the offense going, Horton gets the D going and this young team, sprinkled with talent for the first time in years surprises everyone including ourselves. 9-7 in contention for a wild card spot at the end of the season.

Im in the 8-8 camp.

I would like to think we avoid a double digit loss total, when was the last time that happened?? I just have some serious doubts about even being middle of the pack.

The secondary was a gaping hole last year, and we did nothing of worth to improve it. Yes, that third rounder was added, but he better learn quickly. Skrine is a liability on the outside. He's a PI waiting to happen, and that's just as good as the catch. The only hope here is that the front 7 or 8 can get to the QB and make him get rid of the ball quickly, that would help hide the deficiencies with the DB's.

The offense should be better, but this all hinges on the QB. Enough said i guess. There is young talent, but if the QB can't get them the ball, it will be a problem. If the QB can't keep the defense honest, the box will be stacked to stop TRich. The browns might want to be run heavy, but they can not be predictable in doing so....

I suspect the defense will have some growing pains early, and it will be up the offense to bail them out of some early season games. I don't think that happens, but that is why they play the games. Go BROWNS!!!

5-11 (I hope I'm wrong). Here are the reasons I think we'll be picking in the top 10 again next year:

Too many youngsters....I think we definitely have more talent on both sides of the ball, but we're still expecting very young players to make a major contribution, especially in the defensive backfield.

A rookie head coach. Chud's not done this before and he will make mistakes. He's unproven.

New coordinators with new, complicated systems to implement and new position coaches. These things take time....there's a learning curve. The young players aren't going to just "get it" from the start and execute at a professional level. They haven't developed relationships with the coaches to know what their expectations are.

Off the field distractions. These things do detract from the focus on football. The media will be hounding the players and coaching staff with questions.

Quarterback situation. I have a stinking feeling that Weeden's not going to prove that he's the man. Our qb's get injured every year, and I can't remember the last time our 3rd string qb didn't get a start.

All of these things are indicators that this season will be a learning situation. You just don't overcome all of this stuff in a short training camp and then perform better than average at the highest professional level of your sport. Right now, we're banking on raw (and in many cases unproven) talent to overcome the obstacles.

I dont have much faith in Weeden or Campbell honestly. We did nothing to upgrade our offensive guard, cornerback and safety spot which everyone knew were big holes coming into this offseason.

I see the team starting cold like most seasons and then picking up a few nice wins during the season, again like last season.

I predict we'll finish no better than 6-10. Our pass rush should be good, our passing attack has some potential, but that's about it. I hope Weeden proves me wrong.

I'm in the 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 area code for this season ... too good to draft in the top 10-12, not good enough for the playoffs. I'm expecting big improvement on the offensive side, owing largely to the presence of a NFL-caliber scheme (Turner) that allows Weeden to play in a system he's comfortable in. The defense, I think, will struggle due to holes in the secondary. I'm disappointed we didn't address the CB position through free agency or with an earlier pick in the draft. I'm hoping Mingo proves me wrong in wishing we'd gone Milliner or Rhodes.

I'm thinking around 7-9

We need to play better in our division - I can't remember the last time we had a winning record inside our division - I am hoping we at least split

Baltimore coming off the Super Bowl I don't think will be as good this year - they lost way too much on defense but we have them at their house week two on their first game at home of the season - I see us beating them at home but not in their house

Steelers I think we could sweep but will that last game of the season mean anything?

Then I'm really happy that we have at bengals after our bye - bengals are a young and up coming team making the playoffs two years in a row - I think they have the worst home field advantage in our division but still I'm happy we have two weeks to prepare for them and the have the steelers at home after that

I don't see us beating the Vikings, pats, or packers.... Probably wont beat the bears or lions

Dolphins could go either way same with the jets

We better beat the chiefs, jags, and bills

So I'm guessing around 7-9 but could see 9-7

I really believe with new Coaching, and a years experience for most of our young starters, along with the new FA and Draft Picks, this team will contend through December, I will say they will finish with 7-9 wins ... JMHO

I'm gonna say 9-7, and the 7 losses will all be less than 10 point losses.

Weeden will throw for 4000 yards, 30+ TD's

Richardson will rush for 1000 yards, 700 rec yards 12+ TD's

Little 1000 rec yards 8+ TD's

Gordon 1000 rec yards 10+ TD's

2 of the above players will make the pro bowl.

Can't possibly predict it at this point with any degree of accuracy. Don't know if Weeden will catch onto the Turner O and don't know if our D will be what we expect.

If weeden catches fire and the D is as advertised, we could win 9 or 10 games. IF!

8 - 8 fighting for Wild card spot with the Squeelers

A long year and a new Louisville QB next year, V egas has the Browns at 5.5 wins for the O/U.

I expect the pass rush to disappoint as well as the run defense to getting constantly gouged for big chunks of yardage as usual. With the transition back to the 3-4 it's going to be a long year on that side of the ball.

Weeden and Campbell will play musical chairs at the quarterback position all year. Receiving should be vastly improved with Bess so we might see a minimal improvement in the passing game. I do expect the ground game to be much improved with a 100% Richardson. (hopefully)

We need to tank the season and draft Clowney, but they'll screw it up and win 4 games.

I expect the pass rush to be dynamic and the run D to be below average. I expect Weeden to put up similar numbers because, although he will be improve, this system will lower his accuracy with more deep shots where he isn't what anyone could call accurate. I understand people think he will succeed but the truth is he has a deep arm but his accuracy is questionable at best.

He is inaccurate on all levels so his accuracy will fall as he is asked to make more lower % throws. Our pass O will fail under Weeds HOWEVER our WR's will be very dependable. TRich will run well and improve his rush average but due to being behind in games our pass rush and run O will be useless and TRich will not surpass 1300 on the ground. He will however have a lot or receptions similar to last year. I would project him to have more but those will go to Bess.

I think the draft will prove successful. I think Mingo will be our leader in sacks despite playing a specialists role in his first year as he progresses his upper body strength for more productive tackling and refines his ferocious hands. I think he will be close to double digits. If Weeden does better than I expect he will contend for the rookie sack record.

McFadden will come in and give us a good blanket coverage for up to 4.5 seconds but get beat deep or in a couple jump balls which will lead many to call him a bust. He will make his true jump in year two when we can unleash our pass rush because our new QB has us in games rather than behind.
He will allow teams to run on us outside with speed for large gains.

Slaughter and Gipson have the best battle position wise. Gipson ultimately wins and blossoms as Slaughter plays a hybrid role as a dime and quarter.

I think Gilkey proves good enough for the final 53 as a swing G/T. Really like this kid as a development guy. I think Bryant gets the PS. Adds 20 lbs and makes the 53 in a year as a rotational DL/rush specialist.

I project(bare with me) a 3-13 season. Weeden could surprise me. I doubt it but perhaps he will. If he doesn't this team is built to be ahead in games. A great pass rush and running O will due you little good when your behind on the scoreboard.

I think the FO is setting us up for a high draft pick to secure the QB who can do that for us. Add a QB like Bridgewater(I'm drinking the koolaid) and this team could flip from 3-13 to 13-3 in one season and stay there for years. If Luck can win 11 games with that horrid roster I don't see why Teddy can't win 13 with ours. We are better and deeper on every position.

7-9

We play some really weak teams next year.

This is SO EASY... Remember you heard it here first folks!

WINS - Some
Losses - More

7 - 9

13-3, maybe 14-2 depending on if we sit guys the last week.

No matter who is at QB I think we should show much improvement. Combine that with a VERY creampuff schedule we could get off to a very fast start. At its best, I can see us going 7-2 with losses to Baltimore n Green Bay..

We actually have units that will be strong/dominant.... OL & DL and that is where u win ball games. If Weeden cant get it done, Campbell gives us a solid 2nd option that will be a functional QB. Something we havent had in long time. He's not gonna light it up or anything but consistency would be a nice change.

Actual prediction 9-7 if we can split with everyone in the AFC North

W Dolphins- Home opener, we should definitely win this game
L Ravens- on the road early, their ahead of us.
W Vikings- I really think we could sneak one on the road early against a more run based team.
W/L Bengals- This could go either way. We should be able to split with them again this year.
W Buffalo- Home game we most definitely should win against a rookie QB.
W Lions- Home, lions are overrated every year and somewhat disfunctional.
L KC- I like what they did in the off season. Should be a tuff road game.
W Ravens- Home game sticking with I think we are at the point where we can split with everyone in the division.
W/L Bungals - split the division.
W Steelers- Big Ben will probably be hurt and its at home,
W Jaguars- Definite win at home.
L Bears- Da' Bears
W Jets- At this point, the jets will be completely disfunctional and Sanchez benched. Easy win
L Pitt- Big ben is back at home for the finally..

The old Las Vegas Hilton had them at 4.5 last year although you had to bet $120 to win $100. But yeah its been hovering around that 5 mark for years.

My prediction is 10-6. If the ball bounces right maybe 11-5.

All depends on if Norv can teach some from football smarts to Weeden ...if its teachable ...and if Weeden grows a set of balls.

Two big ifs but I can see the Browns getting on a roll if these two things happen.

I really have no idea what this team will be at this point. It depends on how the QB position washes out, how the front 7 plays, how the secondary plays, if Cameron can be a dynamic TE, and so on.

I want to see how the pre-season goes before I make record predictions. Right now anywhere between 5 and 13 wins seems possible .... although in lesser degrees of likelihood the higher the win total goes.

I really, really like a lot of areas on this team, and if Weeden or Campbell can step up big, we could have a really exciting year. There are a lot of areas that have enormous question marks as of right now though.

jc

If we have more than 9 wins that coaching staff should be voted ALL WORLD.

J/C

predicting wins before camp is a joke. The results are just what I figured. Those who hate Weeden think we will pick top ten, those that don't think we will be better.

To me many are forgetting that many of our key players will be in their third year, hardly rookies anymore, and we have an OL that will have been together now for a few years. Those things matter.

Weeden will not be a rookie, and Richardson will be playing healthy. We have a true possession guy in Bess, and I think Cameron will be a threat down the middle in this offense.

On defense we have a very stout DL. U×derestimating Bryant is widespread on these boards. Taylor could very well play the Casey Hampton role. He is big, quick and strong. With the speed Mingo will add on the edge, I think Kruger will be able to match his playoff numbers from last year.

I think many will be surprised at McFadden's cover ability. IMO he and Haden will be a formidible pair. If Slaugther is healthy look for a ferocious set of hitters at safety. He also is a good cover guy.

This coaching staff is very good, and more tuned to talent than scheme. I can't guess how many games we will win, but I think we will challenge for a wild card.

jc

I think we will end up 8-8 or 9-7 here is why.

Norv will be running a offense that suites Weeden and I think Weeden has the tools to do very well in it. Bess and Nelson are going to really help Weeden on 3rd downs. 3rd downs is the key for this offense to succeed, last year we saw to many 3rd and longs with horrid play calling.

TRich should be 100% healthy with a prety good line in front of him, I think the additions to the OL in FA and late in draft are more for depth, but I do think that LG is a weak point in the OL.

The defense will be much improved, the Browns front office and coaching staff are making a statement with the moves they made and that statement is that we are going to have one hell of a front 7 and that we are coming after your QB.

Dalton, Flacco and Ben are not going to have a free pass in Cleveland anymore, these guys are going to have to get rid of the ball fast because someone will be in there face.

I love the rotation this DL will have at every DL position, solid from left to right and as deep as it gets. Hughs and Wynn are going to play big roles in this defense.

The Browns did not get another shutdown CB so I see the defense having to play double team on WRs on the opposite side of Haden.

Just when we finally get the players needed to really compete we lose Dawson, Dawson was a great kicker on a team that did not matter, now that it looks like the Browns could really improve we have unknown talent at the kicker position.

As much as we all like Cribbs, I don't think his loss will affect the Browns at all, since the rule change happened Cribbs was less effective in putting the Browns in good field position. Someone will step up and replace Cribbs and be good at it.


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Quote:

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Those who hate Weeden think we will pick top ten, those that don't think we will be better.

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I don't hate Weeden and I think we'll be picking top ten. There are just too many changes and distractions to overcome for a young team and rookie HC. I listed them earlier.

Right now my initial feeling is somewhere between 7-9 and 10-6.

However, I want to see more of what the offense and defense will look like in pre-season practices and games. I have a good feeling about a lot of aspects of this team. I like that we have a lot of young players who gained valuable experience last year. I like that the offense will better fit the talents and abilities of the 2 top QBs. However, right now that's all a bunch of supposition and hopes. I need to see how these guys actually do in real football situations.

The areas I feel really good about are:

OL
WR
RB
DL
LB
CB

The areas I have real concerns about are:

QB
TE
CB
S
P
K
KR
PR

I think that the OL has a great deal of talent, and they have a nice blend of young players.

The WR corps will definitely benefit from the arrival of Davone Bess. I love the idea of having him available as a well regarded 3rd down receiver, who knows how to get open and move the sticks. I think that he could be as important to the offesne as Mingo will be to the defense,

The RB corps should be far improved simply by virtue of having Trent Richardson back to full health. I cannot imagine being a RB and playing with broken ribs. I broke a rib once and couldn't even sleep. I like the fact that we have experienced depth here, and also have some promising youngsters.

The DL is one of my favorite parts of this team. We have Bryant, Taylor, Rubin, Winn, Hughes, Kitchen, and Bryant on the DL. That is a very talented and deep DL. I cannot wait to see them wreak havoc on opposing QBs.

The LB corps has been a topic of much discussion and concern, but I am not concerned as of this time. I love the idea of Sheard, Robertson, DQ, and Kruger as the starting 4. There is speed and pass rushing ability, combined with quickness and coverage ability, plus sideline to sideline ability inside, With Mingo and Groves also available outside, and JMJ and Fort inside, I think that this is another potentially deep area.

I listed CB as an area that I am comfortable with, and I am ..... to a degree. I think that the improved pass rush will help coverage. Haden is a quality CB. I think that Skrine is a really solid slot corner. I think that McFadden can become a really good 2nd CB. We have a kid in Owens who brings experience, but is another "smurf". However, a smurf with talent and speed is better than a tall DB who can't cover .... so I feel moderately decent here. There are questions, but I feel that we do have some talent as well.

As far as concerns ...... obviously QB leads the list. We have a pair of guys who appear to fit the offense, but who knows how it will work on the field? That really is THE question. Hopefully one of these guys will step up big for the Browns. If not, it will be a really long, losing year. If we get quality QB play, then the sky could be the limit.

I think that we have a talented kid at TE in Cameron. However, he really hasn't done it yet. He needs to step in and step up. We have some experience behind him, but no "Ozzies" waiting in the wings. Hopefully Cameron really comes on, because he is our best hope. Gronkowski might be a dark horse. I think that he has some ability, and with the way our staff handles TEs, he could be a diamond in the rough.

CB also is a concern, as I said above. One injury and we could be in absolute ... stuff. We also will rely heavily on a rookie. I think that we'll be in good shape here ..... but you never know. People say that we don't have 2 lock down CB ...... but how many teams do have 2 "lock down" guys? Most teams are lucky to have one, and some have a pair of decent types, but rely upon scheme and pressure more than supremely talented coverage Look at the decent, but hardly Pro Bowl type corners Pittsburgh has used over the years. Their corners leave in free agency, and fall apart ,,, then return, and play solid football again. That's because they are only asked to do what they can do.

S, obviously, is a concern. I absolutely love some of the kids we have there, and think that one could very well step up. However, we could also have a bunch of never will bes. It's a major concern, but Rome can't be built in one day. We can find out about this position this season, and then have extra picks next year if we need to make moves in the draft.

P ... well ..... Lanning will probably be the guy. I kind of like his leg, but he has to perform in real games.

K ..... we transition away from Dawson, and that's bound to be a downgrade. It would almost have to be. However, that doesn't mean that we can't have a capable kicker in Graham. I suspect that he will be a one year player, and we will look for a new place kicker next year, when we can bring in a young guy who replaced Graham, and not Dawson.

PR/KR ...... Benjamin seems to be the guy, and he has speed galore. Skrine has experience returning kicks, as does Dion Lewis. It will be interesting to see who winds up doing what this year.

Overall, there are still more questions than answers, but there are potential answers to every question. That sounds a little wishy washy, and maybe it is, but we have players who could be the answers to our problems, and the nice thing is that we have more than just one player at most positions. We have Weeden and Campbell at QB. We have a bunch of young guys at CB. We have numerous youngsters at S, We have a hopeful at TE in Cameron, and we have experience with Kellen Davis. Potential problems, potential questions, and potential answers. Only time will tell what we have for sure.

gun to my head 5-11

going with vegas on this one they have the over under at 5.5 so 5 wins.