DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2014 NFL Season NFL Draft 2014 Dawgtalkers Draft Review

Overall I like Murray. He throws a nice ball but too many times he leaves me saying "what the …" He has a tendency to scramble to his right then throw across his body over the middle. A prescription for disaster in the NFL. I also watched Georgia-Auburn. He was brutal in the 1st half. Looked better in their 2nd half comeback.

As I said, overall I like Murray. Some issues though. The ACL tear. Because of that he will fall in the draft. Question is: How far? A lot of mocks have him going in the 6th or 7th. I call BS on that. He would have gone 1st round before the injury (IMO). I think he goes now in the 3rd. I think that we would need to use the 1st of our two 3rd round picks to get him. If we really like him and want to make sure then we would need to use our 2nd rounder. Again just my opinion.

Something about his play though that I find uninspiring. Seems to be the anti-manziel. No excitement. Leaves you with that feeling blah sensation watching him, and seems to have that schlep-rock quality to him. No matter what, things are going to turn out bad in the end. Even if it isn't his fault. Last minute TD to put us ahead? Defense gives up a 90 yard TD in the last 30. Drive the team down for the winning FG? Kicker misses a chip shot. Seems like he has the anti-it factor about him. Just a weird feeing that I get from him. Completely unsubstantiated by any facts or stats.

Regardless, he will likely be IR's his rookie year.

The last I heard about his leg is that he plans to be able to throw and do some private work outs in April. I don't think he'll be spending his first year on the IR. Though I could see him on the PUP till about week 3-4 at longest.

Ok, missed a day - sorry about that.

Today's video is Logan Thomas vs. Georgia Tech

Agree absolutley about McCoy.

Was going to put that in there, but decided it didn't matter.

Colt played scared and he didn't have an NFL arm. He showed it in college. He knew he didn't have the arm to slip it into tight windows, with wide open receivers. Colt could never hide that. Combine those two traits and....

Wilson's college coach was talking about him having a hundred index cards and studying them while waiting in line for his food. Stories about him going online to try and find out where the opponents time clocks are located. All the preparation stuff that we have heard about with Seattle, he was doing in college. And, it showed.

If we draft Johnny Football, we still need him to be obsessive about success in order for it to turn out right. No brainer.

Quote:

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It all comes down to how dedicated, how obsessed a Quarterback is with putting in 12 hour days to be successful. Its not a coincidence that the two quarterbacks in the Super Bowl yesterday are of the 12 hour a day, to attend to every detail, to watch every bit of tape, variety.

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This is where I think some people get the discussion a little bit twisted up.... Yes, it does take somebody who is obsessed with the details to get to that level of greatness... As a QB in the NFL, you can only get so far on athleticism.... However, and that's a big however, not everybody that watches film 12 hours a day can take what he learns and apply it in a fraction of second as you have to do on the field, even if you DO have the physical tools.... That quick decision making ability can be helped by constant film study but some guys are just better at it than others.

I heard Jaws on the radio the other day, he said that if Peyton Manning took every QB in the NFL and taught them how he breaks down film, and every one of them did it as regularly as Peyton did it, probably only 1 or 2 would ever be able to apply it on the field as quickly and correctly as he does...

Logan Thomas vs. Georgia Tech

Pros:
1.) Above average NFL arm strength and size
2.) Can make NFL throws, accuracy, about average.


Cons:
1.) Just doesn't process information fast enough to play NFL QB - goes through reads slowly. Tends to tuck and run when under pressure. Misses wide open WR that aren't his first read, and checks down constantly.
2.) His first target is wide open at 4:00, but he holds the ball and takes a sack
3.) 5:10 - has plenty of time to throw, and misses the wide open post route deep. Instead goes with a check down but throws it too low.
4.) Again at 5:40, has plenty of time and some open receivers. Needs to be able to get rid of the ball on the blitz.


Other:
1.) Has all the tools - so maybe a guy you take in the 5th and 6th, if you think you have a QB coach who can work miracles -- give him a few years at 3rd string, and he is a guy who has some talent to go
out and win a few games as a backup -- but that's about all.

Today's video is Jimmy Garappolo vs. Northern Illinois:

Great thread idea.

At some point, will you include James Franklin Missouri - My personal mid to late round favorite.

And Keith Wenning Ball State and Brock Jensen N Dakota st - my 2 favorite small school and very small school favorites.

Brock Jensen is kind of interesting. Saw his team steamroll Coastal Carolina and Towson in the playoffs. He's got a strong arm, good athleticism, decent accuracy on the short stuff, and he's tough but man the next time he finds the range on a deep ball might be the first.

Keith Wenning I caught a couple times since ESPN was showing MAC games on Mondays and Tuesdays (or was it Tue/Wed?) He did OK, but didn't really look like an NFLer to me.

JMObservations.

Its worth noting that Northern Illinois was as high as 14th in the BCS rankings late in the season, and that Garopollo was 34/49 for 450Yds (9.2 Avg) with 6 TDs and 2 Ints (QBR of 178.8) against them.

Report: Texans "initially leaning" towards Manziel or Bortles:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/201...iel-or-bortles/

i hope they screw off and take bortles. that would leave teddy, manziel, watkins, clowney. i would absolutely trade up with st. louis and grab teddy. let jacksonville deal with manziel.

I have only seen one Jensen game but really like what I saw. But lower level competition so hard to evaluate.

I like Wenning's arm. He seems like he almost gets it. Can a good Qb coach pop him over the top?

I really liked James Franklin when we had Norv as OC. I thought that he would thrive in that system. Will need to go back and think about how he will fit into Shany's offense.

Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Northern Illinois:

Pros:

1.) Arm motion are both extremely quick. I don't recall ever seeing a QB who can get the ball out of his hands this fast. The arm motion is very compact, the ball doesn't go back very far, and then comes straight forward, but he still gets a pretty good velocity.

2.) Progressions might be even quicker. Sees the whole field, and commonly hits 3rd and 4th WRs in his progressions - and does it on a very quick timer. If you leave a WR open, or drop a coverage against Garappolo, he is going to punish you - even if the receiver wasn't part of his read.

3.) Shows good decision making in when to loft the ball over the DB vs. throwing a dart - can go to the receivers back shoulder etc.

4.) Arm strength is about average for an NFL QB.

5.) This guy is built for a spread/WCO -- Wouldn't be surprised if he goes to the Eagles early.

6.) He is very sneaky, has a lot of little triggers, fake options, fake sneaks, etc. to throw off defenses (probably necessary when you are mostly playing better competition). Nice trick pass at 3:10

Cons:

1.) Accuracy is average - can miss big, but also shows some very accurate passes.

2.) His footwork is.... schizophrenic for lack of a better word. It's good in that it is made to confuse the defense (as mentioned above) - but he doesn't always have his feet set when he chooses to throw (which is often done on a trigger). He still generates very good velocity with these silly looking throws -- however I think this is the major problem with his accuracy. If a good QB coach thinks this is a correctable problem, I think Garoppolo could go very high, if it is intrinsic inaccuracy, then it will be a big hurdle for him becoming an NFL QB.

3.) He tends to miss high, which is the worst place to miss.

4.) Makes a few questionable decisions, 6:10 is a terrible decision and a terrible throw, 12:00 is a terrible decision to throw the ball at all, though it doesn't cost him anything.

I really like the kid, though he needs some coaching before he could play at the NFL level (mostly on things like footwork and poise) -- you can't teach that ability to scan the field though. He's elite in that regard.

Today's video is Tajh Boyd vs. Florida State

Quote:

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Today's video is Tajh Boyd vs. Florida State

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Oh, that's just mean.

I have my Tajh Boyd review coming - but for the next 4 days we go back to the top 4 prospects to show a second game.

For these 4, I'm showing the worst (QBR) game that each player had this season. Today is Teddy Bridgewater vs. Connecticut

Pro:

1.) Good velocity on passes across the middle, throw at 8:45 is especially nice (though dropped)
2.) 2:40 is a pretty nice throw up the seam - i think the receiver gets back to that without the PI, 4:55 also a nice throw, and at 5:55 into a very tight window
3.) A pretty dangerous runner
4.) Back shoulder at 7:25 is nice
5.) Does a nice job finding windows - height might not be a huge concern in terms of balls batted down
6.) Maintains his accuracy on the move (necessary for small QB) - but I worry he stares down receivers while moving

Con:

1.) :30 - throw is to the completely wrong area for that sort of coverage. Big receiver, needs to be back shoulder.
2.) :50 - throw is in a bad spot behind the receiver
3.) 1:13 - throw low and uncatchable to an open WR, same thing at 2:05, 3:25
4.) 1:35 - sees the blitz, needs to control the ball
5.) Great play by Watkins for the TD at 3:45 - but a pretty terrible throw
6.) No clue where the ball is going to at 4:35, there are just some insanely bad misses here
7.) Bad read at 7:00

Overall:

He's playing a much better defense and is overmatched. He has to throw to covered WRs (there are very few that are open) - and is under pressure all day. OTOH - there are a lot of very inaccurate throws h
ere - even given tight windows, he is sometimes off by yards. I'd like to see another game against a defense that isn't so overpowering - but you have to be able to get the ball consistently into small sp
aces in the NFL, and I don't see it.

Bridgewater vs. Connecticut (2013):

Pro -

1.) Moves through progressions easily (see for instance :40)
2.) Nice throw on the deep route at :55, not a loft or anything, but puts the ball where only his receiver can make a plan, another great throw on a deep route at 10:55
3.) Nice job making a play under pressure (just a little dump off, but turns what should be a sack into a gain)
4.) Receiver is wide open on the TD at 3:10, but good job noticing that given the pressure
5.) Beautiful NFL throw up the seams at 4:35
6.) Beautiful job slipping out of pressure and taking the easy yards at 8:10

Con -
1.) Can miss a bit high - which is worrying (3:30, 3:45)
2.) Could sense pressure better at 4:50 - has a chance to get out of the pocket earlier and not take a sack
3.) Not a big fan of the decision at 6:10 - with 10 seconds left in the half don't make a check down throw (of course, you are up big, so maybe not worth bothering)
4.) Bad misread to almost cause a pick at 6:45 - doesn't see the DB in front of the WR in his zone
5.) Throw at 8:40 wasn't a great decision - into too much traffic, and no clear window to the WR - but at least it goes where nobody but the WR could catch it
6.) The throw at 9:20 comes out late - was a dangerous pass and could have been picked. It was the right read, but nearly a full second late
7.) Interception at 9:50 is just a poorly thrown pass - I don't mind the decision to throw into coverage there, it's 3rd and 11, you are probably just out of FG range, and it's a deep pass which will prob
ably seal the game - but there's not near enough arm on it (probably due to pressure, he is getting hit about a quarter second later) and it just sort of floats. You have to throw hard enough to prevent the S from getting over there.

Other:

For the worst game (statistically) of the season - this is really a great passing performance. There are no fewer than 4 straight WR drops, and another 2-3 that should have been caught. I think there are
only about 3 bad throws, the interception (though he was getting hit) , the late pass at 9:20, and missing the zone DB at 6:45. There are a few throws that are about a foot or two high - they should always be caught (and mostly without leaping too), but high throws are always dangerous. His progressions throughout the game are great, he is in control of the game - his accuracy is stellar. The arm strength is probably about NFL average. He's the most ready QB in this class, and also has great upside. The only other downside about this game, is that there is not a lot of great competition from connecticut, he hits a lot of wide open receivers, and isn't under a ton of pressure.

Today's game is Johnny Manziel vs. LSU (ADJ Rating = 30.3)

Given that he had a thumb injury, he was bound to be off his game and float a few. That wasn't the best game to use to assess his play.

He reminds me of Rothlisberger

Manziel vs. LSU

Manziel vs. LSU

Notes: This is a much much better defense than Bridgewater played (of course, Evans is also a better WR than Bridgewater has ever played with) so I do my best to make comparisons here. Additionally, Manziel has an injured thumb in this game, which might cause some inaccuracy.

Pro:
1.) First two passes are both on time, and hit receivers in the hands on routes across the middle.

2.) Still is a threat with his feet - he can evade pressure effortlessly and enlongate plays. He does a good job finding receivers coming back to the ball while he is running.

3.) Shows good timing on short screens and dump offs.

Con:
1.) :25 is one of those throws that no NFL QB can afford to make — but that Manziel tries regularly. He does a great job avoiding pressure and gets out of the pocket (and then has a bunch of time) - but he throws a duck to a covered WR. Evans is better than any college defender, but that will be a 50/50 pick in the NFL

2.) The accuracy is just subpar - Evans is wide open at 3:45 (as wide open as WRs in the last Bridgewater game) and Manziel just misses him by 5 yards.

3.) Misses the blitz at 11:40 and the wide open hot route receiver across the middle, gets sacked instead.

4.) 12:10 is another one of those big plays to Mike Evans that is a pick 90% of the time on Sunday.

5.) Interception at 12:50 is just a horrible decision - OL picks up the blitz pretty well, but he throws it right to the DB.

Other:

1.) 2:25 is sort of an interesting play. 4th and 5, he drops back, he seems to scan the field before taking off up the middle (not a ton of pressure on the play - but DE are in good position to expect a scramble). It appears like he is thinking run almost the whole time he is in the pocket. Without seeing the whole-22 it’s hard to tell how covered the WR are, but it was pretty clear that scramble was not going to be successful, and he takes it anyway. I get the impression that he wants to do this again at 6:00, but is stopped because of pressure and throws the ball away.

2.) 2:45 is also a bit of a worry (depending on how tall he grades out) - there are a lot of open throwing lanes on that field. He finds none of them and the ball is batted down.

3.) The accuracy throughout this game is just terrible - maybe it’s just the thumb (he’s never been that bad before) - but I don’t think of him as a terribly accurate passer overall. In this game though, he wouldn’t be a 7th round pick based on the mis-throws.


Blake Bortles vs. South Carolina

1.) Great timing and velocity on the slant route.

2.) great throw at 7:45 - those routes are lethal with a WR like gordon, another great throw at 10:00

3.) He’s really best throwing over the middle of the field. He has great arm strength to gun the ball into converge. His accuracy is best when he can gun the ball in. Also his height allows him to see the whole field and easily throw over defenders.

Con:

1.) Really bad miss high at 2:25, could easily have been a pick

2.) Dumps the ball off a bit more than I’d like

3.) Gotta hold onto the ball at 2:40, nice job avoiding Clowney though

4.) Loses control of the ball twice, both were inexcusable fumbles. Is that a trend, or a fluke?

5.) Second interception is a pretty bad under throw, due to a defender in his face. It’s a good read - just wasn’t able to step into the throw.


Other:

1.) Can’t decide if the pass at 3:45 is terrible or great. It’s a bit high, his receiver gets laid out. 5 years ago you’d say horrible pass, and you can’t set up a receiver to get killed like that. But it draws a flag (as it always will) - and usually the defender just isn’t going to risk the flag and make those hits, which means it could be a big gain.

2.) The pick at 4:45 is about 50% Bortles fault (he stares down the receiver and telegrams the route) - but also the receiver can’t let the DB cut inside of the route like that. The ball is out while the receiver is cutting, and that’s hard for the QB to anticipate.

3.) nice tackle at 6:10

4.) There’s not a lot of touch passes in his game. He has good rhythm with screen passes, and has great velocity over the middle. But you don’t see a lot of touch to let the WR go up and get it. Is this something he can add? UCF doesn’t really have overpowering receivers, so maybe it is a part of his game at the next level?

This last game for our QBs is Derek Carr vs. San Diego State



After this, I'm going to rank the QBs (from these games) - and give reasons for each ranking.

Derek Carr. vs San Diego State

Pros:

1.) Can get the ball out of his hands quickly in the short pass game. Has good rhythm with receivers on short passes. Has a very short arm motion physically - which means this skill will always translate.

2.) Shows above average arm strength along with his short arm motion - can make all the NFL throws.

3.) Has two very nice touch passes to Adams for TDs.
Cons:

1.) Accuracy and mechanics break down when under pressure. He almost never makes a good throw while on the move - tends to miss receivers badly. Could be an INT machine in the NFL.

2.) 11:10 is just a terrible decision, gotta either throw it, or just get rid of it there.

3.) Despite the quick release and quick passing game (part of the offense) - I wouldn’t say that Carr is a quick decision maker when the play isn’t built in. For instance, he rarely gets the ball to his hot routes on a blitz - this leads to a lot of unnecessary scrambling, which he’s not particularly good at.


Other:

1.) He doesn’t have any one skill that blows you away. For Manziel it’s certainly the ability to make plays when things break down. For Bortles it’s the size/mobility combination, for Bridgewater it’s accuracy and decision making. There’s really nothing about Carr that comes out of the page at you.


Also I realized I completely left out McCarron - will get to him tomorrow.

that's right! my bad, lol.

Last game is AJ McCarron vs. Oklahoma

AJ McCarron vs Oklahoma

Pro:

1.) Nice timing with receivers on come back routes.
2.) Good on the timing of short/intermediate routes.
3.) Beautiful pass at 5:35


Con:

1.) Loft throw into double coverage was a terrible throw, and was telecast. NO reason to make that throw.
2.) Not a lot of accuracy on loft passes to the corners.
3.) Stares down the WR a bit - not a guy who goes through a ton of progressions. Can hit the checkdown - but basically goes first read -> checkdown.
4.) Breaks down a bit under pressure - usually safe with the ball, but isn't going to make a lot of plays against the blitz. Will take a lot of sacks.


Other:

1.) Man, his receivers really do a lot for him. Tons of YAC (not necessarily because great throws are givin gthem YAC)
2.) Not sure what the receiver is doing on the 2nd interception - not really his fault.
3.) Overall I don't really see an NFL arm - I see a guy who tops out as a backup and spot starter, who could come in and not lose you a game or two.

QB Rankings:

Top 5:

1.) Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville - By far the best QB of this class. He’s light-years ahead of every other QB on this list in terms of moving through progressions and finding the open receiver. His accuracy is also stellar. If you can move through progressions rapidly, and have great accuracy, then you will be successful in this league no matter what.

Top 10:

2.) Blake Bortles, UCF - Size/speed combination just blew me away. Add to that excellent arm strength, and he has the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft. His accuracy on the intermediate routes needs to improve still (really, the consistency of his accuracy) - as does his ability to move through progressions. Less ready to start in year one than Bridgewater or even Manziel/Murray, but has a ton of upside.

Top 20:


Top 40:

3.) Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M - Even for how much I criticize him, he has more pocket awareness than any QB I’ve ever seen. That along with his legs, means he is going to win some football games. I’m still a little worried about his accuracy and decision making. But I’d put him on the upper half of the top 40 - and wouldn’t throw things at the television if we took him at 26.

4.) Aaron Murray, Georgia - 2nd most NFL ready QB behind Bridgewater. No great physical gifts here, but he sees the whole field, and makes accurate, smart throws. His accuracy is probably the 2nd best of anybody on this list, and he doesn’t make a ton of mistakes.

Top 60:

5.) Jimmy Garappolo, Eastern Illinois - I really like this guy. Sneaky, with great footwork and an absurdly fast release. He mentally processes the game as fast as any QB on this list (rivals Bridgewater) and is lethal on quick reads. I predict the Eagles move up and take him at the top of the 2nd and turn him into a great QB. A little bit of a scheme fit guy - probably WCO or spread - not going to fit in a downfield offense. I think he’s solid anywhere in round 2.


Top 100:

6.) Zach Mettenberger, LSU - Is very close to the top 60 for me. He has incredible physical tools. Besides the current injury situation, I worry about his decision making. He tends to force balls into extremely tight spaces, and trusts his arm a bit too much.


7.) Derek Carr, Fresno State - Would have to flip a coin to choose between him and Mettenberger. Has the prototypical QB tools, and he’s a great QB when he doesn’t have to deal with pressure. But the rush just kills him - the footwork breaks down, the accuracy goes to hell, and the decision making is mediocre at best. You can potentially turn him into a starter though with a good coach.


Top 150:

8.) AJ McCarron, Alabama - There’s a bit of a break here, because I don’t feel these last three QBs will ever be starting quality. But McCarron gets the nod because I think he will be a solid backup in this league for many years. He’s not going to make a ton of mistakes, and can get you through a few games without your starting QB without losing you any of them.

9.) Taj Boyd, Clemson - Very accurate thrower to his first option, who doesn’t do a good enough job moving through progressions or doing the little things to overcome his small stature


Top 200:

10.) Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech - Has all the body attributes to make it as a QB in the league, but I don’t think he has the mental capability to move through progressions rapidly, and manage an offense.

So next I'm going to try to do WRs (unless everybody is now sick of this, in which case I'll stop posting -- please just let me know that too) -- everybody else is free to join in and contribute? I was going to do two games a day, since WR vids are like 3 min long, instead of 10-15.

Two Weeks, and would hit up:
Sammy Watkins
Mike Evans
Marquise Lee
Kelvin Benjamin
Odell Beckham
Davante Adams
Brendin Cooks
Jarvis Landry
Jordan Matthews
Allen Robinson
Bruce Ellington
Brandon Coleman
Robert Herron
Paul Richardson
Donte Moncrief
Martavis Bryant

First videos are Sammy Watkins: