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Quinn feasted on bubble screens in college. Which is exactly why I am so leery of David Carr.
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Weeden made quick decisions in college...
Blackmon's open? Throw it to him.
Blackmon's covered? Throw it to him.
I would love to ask Tom Heckert what happened that day. DeCastro on the board, I was sitting in a little bar in hawaii at 11am watching the draft, telling my freind who lives there (Browns fan lives there now, lucky SOB) "I'm telling you man, there is no way they pass on Decastro here".
Brandon Weeden had me like "oh my god, dude, let's go, pay our tab, let's go".
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If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
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Quinn feasted on bubble screens in college. Which is exactly why I am so leery of David Carr.
I also saw where he completed more passes over 20 yards then either Bridgewater or Manziel.
Which I don't doubt is true.
Here is the link....go watch the games....you'll fall asleep in a montage of bubble screens waiting for 15 completions past 20 yards.
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/derek-carr/
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I deleted my post because I then saw info to the contrary, so now I am not sure which is accurate.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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I deleted my post because I then saw info to the contrary, so now I am not sure which is accurate.
I'm sure Steve is going to come in here raging that I am saying Carr sucks, which is not the case. My opinion is based off watching the games, not advanced stats, not how many passes he threw x amount of yards, it's from watching his career, which is simply put a billion screen passes mixing in throws down field on occasion.
Maybe he ends up being great, entirely possible, I just know from my experience and having seen guys just like him come into the league in the past, they don't work out. Guys from spread, pass happy systems tend to struggle under center.
I don't even want to see the "stats" of his career. He threw for 10 billion yards and 700TDs.... I'll just point you to Graham Harrell.
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Quinn feasted on bubble screens in college. Which is exactly why I am so leery of David Carr.
I also saw where he completed more passes over 20 yards then either Bridgewater or Manziel.
Which I don't doubt is true.
Here is the link....go watch the games....you'll fall asleep in a montage of bubble screens waiting for 15 completions past 20 yards.
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/derek-carr/
Thanks for the link.
The deal about the screens is that was the O...it's not like he was checking in to those plays.
I am not defending the guy so much or really want him. I still want Johnny Football. If Clowney drops to #4, everything changes...I take him.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Which is fair, my point was back to the similarities to Quinn. Bubble screen on top of bubble screen, was pronounced NFL ready, can't miss, smart, won't have an issue transitioning.....
It matters, it just does. If we pick him, I'll back him and hope to be proven wrong, but man, history isn't in his favor.
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Which is fair, my point was back to the similarities to Quinn. Bubble screen on top of bubble screen, was pronounced NFL ready, can't miss, smart, won't have an issue transitioning.....
It matters, it just does. If we pick him, I'll back him and hope to be proven wrong, but man, history isn't in his favor.
I don't understand why you continue to compare apples and oranges. A third of Carr's passes this year were screens because that was their running game. Remember that Fresno State switched offenses this year to this new scheme. It shows in their team's run:pass ratio. Bubble screens in Fresno's offense was their running game. Bubble screens in Notre Dame's offense was their passing game. To compare the volume of screens that Carr threw in 2013 to what Quinn was doing is meaningless.
Code:
Notre Dame Pass Attempts Rush Attempts Passes to Runs Quinn TD Quinn INT Completion
2006 471 423 1.11 37 7 61.90%
2005 454 491 0.92 32 7 64.90%
2004 362 460 0.79 17 10 54.10%
Fresno St. Pass Attempts Rush Attempts Passes to Runs Carr Pass TD Carr INT Completion
2013 675 413 1.63 50 8 68.70%
2012 535 471 1.14 37 7 67.30%
2011 448 439 1.02 26 9 62.60%
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So Quinn actually ran a more pro style offense. Got it.
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I also saw where he completed more passes over 20 yards then either Bridgewater or Manziel.
Not sure if you're referring to my pointing out that he threw many more passes beyond the line of scrimmage (and especially more than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) than the other three guys.
As far as the 20+ yards completions go (which I never looked at or spoke on specifically)... I have to use the fudgy numbers from Peshek's article.
The target% at 20+ as well as the completion rate "adjusted for drops" that Peshek gives (which I don't think he would tell you is absolute and well-defined). Here's about what it works out to. (obviously there are some data points thrown away for drops since the completions don't come out even. he doesn't say how many for each guy or how the completion is adjusted for the drop, but this should give you a rough estimate as to the number of completions.)
Code:
Bridge Carr Bortles Manziel
Total Attempts 427 659 382 429
Targets 20+ 14.63% 11.35% 11.60% 18.69%
Completion "Adjusted for Drops" 50.82% 44.23% 54.76% 55.84%
Total Completions > 20 yards 31.75 33.08 24.27 44.77
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So Quinn actually ran a more pro style offense. Got it.
Your ability to interpret stats to fit your opinions rivals only YT's.
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I thought someone pointed out that that even if you take out all of Carr's Screen Passes, he still had good if not better numbers than most of the other guys?
Add me to the list of people that don't want him. But also don't want people to just throw out crap.
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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The mantra from Carr's detractors has been "his stats are all from screens... he checks down too often."
To that, I have responded, obviously in not a clear enough manner, that the screen passes are just additional information on top of a suitable body of work to be judged. To say he just threw screen passes incorrect.
Carr threw 440 non-screen passes. Bridgewater threw 385 non-screen passes. Bortles and Manziel were somewhere around 320 and 350.
*Edit* I also showed that even removing the screen passes Carr did a better job of not making drive-killing plays (INTs and sacks) than all the other QBs.
Last edited by clevesteve; 04/23/14 12:22 PM.
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So what you're saying is... He only throws screen passes? 
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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I couldn't agree more : ) Mettenburger is by far the best QB in this yrs draft! Everyone wants a running QB but History has proven that they don't last very long in the NFL! Guys like Manny,Brady,Rothisburger,Kosar,all have mobility issues but They also are Winners! The QB position is protected more so today than it has ever been an I Personally would rather have a big STRONG QB standing in the pocket then a guy that can run around an get killed like RG3 an others like him! Mettenburger can sit an ride the pine for a year while learning the game at the highest level. Give him a big OL an some weapons to throw to an he will WIN!! JMHO.. : ) GO BROWNS 
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Everyone wants a running QB but History has proven that they don't last very long in the NFL!
Steve Young played for 15 years.
John Elway played for 15 years.
Donovan McNabb played at a High Level for 10 years.
Michael Vick was in the league for 6 years before other things caught up to him.
It's not about weather or not they run or not. It's weather or not they are GOOD.
Show me all the crappy running QBs you want, theres a long list on Pocket Passers that sucked too..
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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There is also a huge difference between a running QB and a mobile QB.. Alex Smith and Andrew Luck were both in the top 10 in rushing yards per game for QBs.. anybody consider either of them a running QB? They were only behind Pryor (who nobody wants), Vick (who nobody wants), RGIII, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Kaepernick, and Geno Smith...
Wilson, Kaepernick, and Newton QB probably the 3 best teams in the NFC last year and one of them won the SB and another played in the SB the year before...
having a QB who is at least a threat to hurt you with his feet is a very powerful tool in keeping a defense off balance... I agree that you don't need a guy who runs like Vick but the days of the statue QB are numbered.
yebat' Putin
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Wow now that's a big list of running QB's ! But the difference between Young an Elway is they only ran when all else failed! Vick,RG3,Cunningham,an all the rest had there careers end because running! An I don't expect RG3 to last much longer either! I'll take a pocket QB over a running QB everytime
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j/c
I think there's a huge difference in having a mobile QB and having a running QB. It's like having a guy that runs who can play QB, verses a guy who plays QB that can run if he has to.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
#gmstrong
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j/c
I think there's a huge difference in having a mobile QB and having a running QB. It's like having a guy that runs who can play QB, verses a guy who plays QB that can run if he has to.
Russel Wilson vs Terrell Pryor
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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Russel Wilson vs Terrell Pryor
That about covers it.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
#gmstrong
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Wilson, Kaepernick, and Newton QB probably the 3 best teams in the NFC last year and one of them won the SB and another played in the SB the year before...
having a QB who is at least a threat to hurt you with his feet is a very powerful tool in keeping a defense off balance... I agree that you don't need a guy who runs like Vick but the days of the statue QB are numbered.
+1
This year I became enamored with 6 4" guys who are mobile.
There will be two coming out next year.
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Guys like Manny,Brady,Rothisburger,Kosar,all have mobility issues but
They also are Winners!
were
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Quote:
Quote:
Guys like Manny,Brady,Rothisburger,Kosar,all have mobility issues but
They also are Winners!
were
And Roethlisberger is the poster child for the difference between being a running QB and being a mobile QB.. he isn't very fast but he is very elusive and very hard to bring down and makes a ton of great plays after the play breaks down because of his strength and mobility...
yebat' Putin
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j/c
I think there's a huge difference in having a mobile QB and having a running QB. It's like having a guy that runs who can play QB, verses a guy who plays QB that can run if he has to.
Russel Wilson vs Colin Kaepernick
Russel Wilson vs Tim Tebow
Russel Wilson vs Blake Bortles
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Cleve, I'm still not sold on Carr but I do appreciate you bringing new info to the table to educate as well as support your argument.....refreshing.
Against logic,the most effective armor is willful ignorance.
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Thanks Willie, it's not my goal to win everyone over with Carr... The whole point of me posting all these numbers is to debunk false statements people make to influence others' opinion which are contrary to the facts. "All Carr does is throw screens." No, actually he threw more non-screens than anyone else in the draft. "He will take a ton of sacks and throw INTs in the NFL." That's odd, he has the lowest sack + INT rate of all the QBs in the draft. If people don't want him, fine... I just don't like people spewing false stuff to influence others' opinion.
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The mantra from Carr's detractors has been "his stats are all from screens... he checks down too often."
He does check down too often. He even did it in the Senior Bowl. LOL
However, that is not are mantra. The mantra is that is plays scared when pressured. Part of why he checks down early is because he is scared. Another part of being scared is that he becomes inaccurate. His footwork falls apart.
steve, if you are right about Carr and I wrong..............I PROMISE to apologize profusely. If I turn out to be right and you are wrong.............will you at least admit that I had a point?
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Thank you CleveSteve, I choose to not get into typing battles with the anti -Carr legions with all of their bubble screen crap. People claim they actually watched the games, I don't know what they watched. When you average throwing the ball over 50 times per game, they all can't go down field. The passing game was their running game as you stated, it was the design of the offense. I think his sophomore year is a better barometer of his talent when they ran the pro style offense. I did watch 9 of his games over the last 2 years and thought he was special. He really reminds me of Jeff George which may make people cringe but the arm talent is not debate able, the dude can throw. When people rail on him because of his brother is laughable, he was on an NFL field as a kid. He has been around NFL coaches, media and has a brother to mentor him. I think he has a shot to be as good as any of these others which is why I don't envy Farmers position. This years QB class is quite the lab experiment, we just can't miss on whatever QB we select.
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So, in other words you are saying I am lying about watching the games?
So be it.
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No, not at all, you have the right to your opinion and I certainly respect that, my statement was not pointed directly at you. I have read a ton of posts stating they have scouted, broken down film, etc and I just don't know what they saw. I know what I saw in the games I watched over the last couple of years. Any guy(Carr) that throws as much as he did is gonna have high % percentage short throws. I believe that the ant-Carr people are judging him on the USC game a lot more than they will admit, that's my opinion. Carr seems to be impressing a Lot of NFL decision makers which would make me think they didn't give a crap about the USC game as Fresno never had a shot in that game anyway, he could be a top 10 pick. I personally am NOT in love with him as I favor Teddy. I do understand the HX of the spread QB,s and not playing under center for the last 2 years and the footwork stuff does cause me concern. It is of My Opinion that some of the reasons for people to relentlessly post reasons for his certain failure is ridiculous. I just want the same thing as you, whoever we pick at QB, they better get right because we are definitely taking someone with one of our top 3 picks. GO BROWNS
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Okay. I disagree w/you on some of things about Carr, but I respect your opinion. You tried to use logic to explain your position. I respect that.
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general replyl. As of Last night, Kiper had projected Manziel at 4, and McShay had projected Bortles at 4. (That means Nothing I know) but what can you say about these two compared.
Manziel, or Bortles, as a pick. As a player going forward. As the strengths of their games.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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If I turn out to be right and you are wrong.............will you at least admit that I had a point?
Yes, absolutely.
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TL, JMO
1. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M 6'0", 210# Round: 1
Incredibly tough, gritty, and gutsy. An inspiring leader on the field. Has a special sense of what is going on around him. Does not have a cannon but has enough arm to push the ball downfield even against good safety play. Sub-optimal arm strength shows up when he tries to throw off-balance. Gets good velocity when he sets his feet. Buys time and keeps his eyes downfield when the designed play is not open. Very dangerous scrambler who sometimes bails out of the pocket too soon. Will challenge corners in one-on-one situations, sometimes losing that battle. Looks off coverage and fits tight windows. Hits receivers in-stride for yards after catch. Large hands enable him to employ a hard and effective pump fake. Despite his noted small stature, most-resembles Ben Roethlisberger in the pros in his ability to turn an impossibly broken play into a positive using his Houdini-like escape skills and transcendent improvisational talent. (vs. Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss, LSU, Missouri, Auburn, Duke)
4. Blake Bortles, UCF 6'3", 230# Round: 2
Blake Bortles: A team drafting Blake Bortles to be their QB is probably looking for him to be a dual-threat. His added value is in his ability to run the ball as a big, athletic QB. Ideally, with Bortles, you run an offense that can suck the defense up to the line of scrimmage then hit them over the top. Bortles hasn't shown the consistent accuracy needed to run a timing-based West Coast-style offense, but can be an effective player when utilized properly. Bortles has a strong arm, but to get those big throws off he really winds into the delivery. When he doesn't put as much behind it he gets the ball out much quicker. Looks off safeties and will check multiple targets. Keeps his eyes downfield waiting for a receiver to come open when avoiding the rush and has above average escapability. Is effectively impossible to stop on the short-yardage QB sneak. Does not show ability to make even rudimentary pre-snap reads. Ran the same running play into the same defense directly at the safety in the box for a loss twice vs. South Florida. I think he makes too many bad decisions and poor throws to be a first round quarterback. Whoever ends up drafting Bortles is hoping he turns into Cam Newton, but I could see him just as likely become Tim Tebow. (vs. Houston, South Carolina, Louisville, South Florida, Baylor, Rutgers)
Last edited by clevesteve; 04/23/14 11:30 PM.
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Must note, though: SEA, San Fran, CAR were also top 3 defenses in the NFL. All have solid ground games. If we could build that type of team it would go a long way in helping the QB.
Totally agree brother.. and while we aren't to their level yet, we are in a better position than we have been in for a long time as far as supporting talent around the QB.
I also must add.. that while Gore and Lynch are both very good, they didn't blow anybody away with stats last year.. 1100-1200 yards, 4.2 - 4.3 ypc.. those are solid numbers but nothing other-worldly... Carolina's leading rusher only had 850 yards. All 3 of those teams had QBs who rushed for over 500 yards and was the second leading rusher on their team.... and are a large part of them being perceived to have a strong ground game is because of the running ability of the QB.. Plus, it's impossible to tell how much just the threat of the QB being able to take off and run helps open things up for other people. All 3 of them were in the top 6 in turnover margin, they do a decent job of taking the ball away and a decent job at protecting the ball...
All of those things lead to taking the pressure off any one person or any one group to go win games for you... and I think that is exactly what Pettine is talking about when he says the QB has been expected to do too much..
yebat' Putin
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