Twice this season Stefanski has decided to go for two after a defensive penalty on the extra point try, no hesitation, both times we've converted. I remember thinking (against the Chiefs) "good, they made a mistake, (try to) make them pay".
The second time (Vikings), I thought there may be more to the story where analytics is concerned. Sure enough, a story in The Athletic today confirmed my suspicion...
All of this begs the question: What is 1 yard worth? Why is going for two points a good idea from the 1-yard line, but not the 2? How much of a difference does three feet make?
The answer: quite a bit.
The success rate from 2 yards away, according to TruMedia�s data, is 48 percent since the 2000 season. On average, you�d �expect� 0.964 points if you elect to try it. In other words, if teams went for it 1,000 times from the 2-yard line, they can expect to score 964 points.
From 1 yard away, that success rate leaps to nearly 66 percent since 2000. On average, teams can �expect� 1.312 points when they go for it. So for every 1,000 attempts, that�s 1,312 points.
How much is that 1 yard worth? About 0.348 points.
