I disagree with the basic premise stated about the law of averages.
If you flip a quarter and it lands heads up 22 times in a row, the odds that it will land heads up on the next flip is 50/50. It is unchanged by the previous 22 flips.
If 22 people are lying about something and a 23rd person comes along, those 1st 22 have zero impact on whether that 23rd person is going to lie or tell the truth.
(Not saying any of the 22 accusing DW are lying. Basing my statements off the original premise presented earlier in this thread)
| 
