The following is a really good article from PFF on just how good Watson was the last time he played in the NFL. You won't be able to view the videos, but it is still a great read for those who like to talk about football.
Galina: Why Deshaun Watson was the NFL's best quarterback in 2020
By Seth Galina
Feb 15, 2021
As much as we all try to separate the performances of different positions from their teammates in order to isolate production, players with stronger surroundings will always fare better than those without.
We’ve spent the past month praising Aaron Rodgers for his MVP 2020 season and bowing down to Tom Brady for his playoff run to a seventh Lombardi Trophy. And why shouldn’t we? Those two were the highest-graded quarterbacks of the entire 2020 season. They deserve praise. One could even argue that Rodgers’ season was one of the great quarterback campaigns of the PFF era (since 2006).
Of course, both signal-callers played on teams that allowed them to showcase their talents. Brady’s Buccaneers happened to boast a top-five defense to continually keep him ahead of the game in terms of field position and game state. Plus, he had the best receiving corps in the league.
Rodgers was given opportunities to find open receivers via Matt LaFleur’s wide-zone and play-action scheme, and he had arguably the best receiver in the league in Davante Adams. It’s hard to go back and look through the list of the great quarterback seasons of the past 15 years and find examples where quarterbacks did not have other elite factors going in their favor.
That’s why I’m ready to make the argument that Deshaun Watson was not only the best quarterback of 2020, but also that he had the best season of the past 15 years — and maybe ever.
Absolutely nothing went the Texans' way last year, and Watson still routinely played at an elite level. Former Houston head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien traded his team's best receiver, yet Watson played better than ever before. O’Brien was fired midseason, but it didn’t phase the quarterback. He played with a terrible defense, a terrible running game and no star receivers and put up the 19th-best regular-season passing grade of the PFF era (91.2). He’s one of 29 quarterbacks to finish a regular season with a 90.0-plus passing grade.
Those 29 quarterback seasons are generally regarded as the greatest individual campaigns of the past 15 years. Tom Brady’s 2007, Peyton Manning’s 2013 and Patrick Mahomes’ 2018 are all included in this group alongside Watson’s 2020.
Better surrounding factors allow a quarterback to stay away from negative plays. Being down in games forces the quarterback to attempt more difficult passes. Not having a running game puts the quarterback in more ominous down and distances. Not having receivers who can separate forces the quarterback to hold on to the ball.
And yet, Watson torched the league despite having nothing going in his favor.
We can start with the overall records for each of those 29 quarterbacks. If a signal-caller is having an elite year, chances are his team is doing well. Twenty-six of the 29 quarterbacks’ teams won at least 10 games that season. The quarterback is the most important factor, but you can assume that other factors were involved to get to that plateau of wins.
Twenty-eight of the 29 quarterbacks’ teams finished the season at .500 or above. The only team to finish below that threshold is the 2020 Houston Texans and their four wins. Better quarterback play has resulted in wins more often than not. Watson, even while being a part of this elite club, did not have any team support.
For starters, he didn’t have much of a defense. The Texans finished 31st in defensive expected points added per play in 2020. Only the 2006 Indianapolis Colts defense was worse from a league ranking perspective, as they finished 32nd the year that Manning carried them to a Super Bowl win.
Worst defense EPA ranks among 29 QBs with 90+ season grade in PFF era
QB Defense EPA Rank
25. Tom Brady, 2011 28th
26. Patrick Mahomes, 2018 28th
27. Andrew Luck, 2016 29th
28. Deshaun Watson, 2020 31st
29. Peyton Manning, 2006 32nd
Watson is also part of a group of 10 players who notched 90.0-plus passing grades despite their defenses finishing below 20th in the league in EPA. Philip Rivers’ 2010 season in San Diego topped the list, as the Chargers' defense finished second in the league that season.
The Texans also couldn’t run the ball. They finished 31st in 2020 in EPA per rushing play. The next worst unit was the 2019 Seattle Seahawks, who finished 28th in the league while Russell Wilson still produced a 90.0-plus grade. In fact, in 17 of the 29 seasons, the rushing EPA per play of the elite quarterback's team was in the top half of the league. At the top is Manning's 2007 Colts rushing attack, which finished first that year.
When it comes to surrounding talent in the passing game, Watson doesn’t fare as poorly but does find himself in the bottom-third in a couple of categories. The Texans' team pass-blocking grade ranked 19th among the 29 seasons. Aaron Rodgers’ 2014 season was at the top with a 92.1 team pass-blocking grade. And unsurprisingly, Rivers’ 2018 season was at the bottom with a 59.7 cumulative grade.
The 2020 Texans team receiving grade was 20th in this group. Andrew Luck’s 2016 season saw the Colts finish with a 75.5 receiving grade, the lowest in the sample, while the 2016 Falcons and Matt Ryan’s great season finished at the top.
From a macro scheme perspective, we can look at play-action rate and screen rate to see how protected these quarterbacks were. Play-action passes, whether they be RPOs or otherwise, tend to define the reads for a quarterback and create distractions for defenders that a regular dropback does not.
PFF has play-action data going back to the 2012 season, and Watson again comes in pretty low. For this, I used league rank in terms of percentage of throws that were off play action because of how play-action rates have risen throughout the NFL over time. The 2020 Texans sat at 28th in the league this season in play-action rate. Only Brady’s 2020 season and Ben Roethlisberger’s 2015 season were lower relative to the league at the time. The 2016 Falcons finished first in the NFL in play-action rate that year.
PFF's screen data goes back to 2011, and it provides similar results. Watson’s Texans placed 21st in the league in screen rate — 17th-lowest of the 23 players in this selection. Rodgers' 2020 season had him throw the second-highest rate of screens in the league, while Rivers’ 2018 was last at a league rank of 29th that year.
Watson’s 2020 season is at or near the bottom in almost all team categories. River’s 2018 campaign is rough from a scheme and offensive line perspective, but he played with a top-10 running game and defense. Luck’s 2016 season and Wilson’s 2019 campaign are almost as rough as Watson’s 2020.
A big part of PFF grades is the opportunity to have negative plays. If you are 2007 Tom Brady throwing to Randy Moss, your opportunity for negative plays is small. If you are 2016 Matt Ryan, who is not being asked to perform straight dropbacks often, your opportunity for negative plays is smaller. Rodgers playing behind David Bakhtiari, Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, Bryan Bulaga and Corey Linsley in 2014 limited the pressure he faced, and therefore, there was less of a chance to have a negative play.
It’s not to say those seasons aren't great — they are, undoubtedly — but Watson’s season, without any semblance of team help and still grading at that incredible level, might be the most impressive.
I’m less concerned with the supposed scheme issues than the talent surrounding Watson. The complaints about lack of play-action chances are definitely founded in reality. With Bill O’Brien coming from coaching Tom Brady, that’s the scheme he brought with him to Houston. No one complains when Brady’s coaches don’t call play action enough for him, because he can drop back and complete passes without it at an elite level.
That’s what happened with Watson this year. He didn’t need play action. Watson was the third-highest graded passer without play action, screens and RPOs this season, behind only Rodgers and barely behind Mahomes. Could the Texans have gone away from the “all-stick route” offense? Maybe, but Watson was playing at such an elite level that he was getting completions on any concept drawn up for him. These macro scheme complaints don’t really hold up when talking about the elite players in the game. Does Jared Goff need play action? Yes. Did Watson require it? No.
Did this stop me from making the same complaint? Also no.
Watson has always had this level of play in him, but like so many other quarterbacks, performing at such a level for an entire season proved difficult over his first three years in the league. Specifically, Watson's floor games of past seasons completely vanished in 2020. Over the first three years of his career, Watson had 12 games where his passing grade dipped under 60.0. He had no such games in 2020. And getting his turnover-worthy play percentage down to 2% from 3.6% in 2019 was part of that.
In the Texans' Week 3 matchup against the Steelers, Watson engineered a superb two-minute drill that showed everything he’s about right now. The Steelers would end the season ranked second in defensive EPA per play, and Watson tore them up. Getting the ball back with 1:14 left in the first half at their own 25, the Texans took five plays to get into the endzone, with Watson going a perfect 5-for-5.
We start with a quick hitch route to Brandin Cooks. Watson really could throw to either tight end Darren Fells or Cooks. On this concept, with the cornerback off, you are reading the first low defender. He immediately buzzes outside, which opens the throw to Fells, but Watson never believes he can get out fast enough to get under Cooks' route, either. He throws as soon as he finishes the end of his drop and puts the ball on Cooks' outside shoulder, where it should go.
On throws that we chart and bucket as “stick” throws, Watson’s adjusted completion percentage jumped from 76% over the previous two seasons to 92% this past year. His grade on those attempts was good enough for second-best in the league. He took what was given to him and kept the chains moving.
The Texans try to start picking up chunk yardage, so they call their sail concept hoping to find Randall Cobb in some space. The Steelers end up in Cover 3, but with the flat defender getting wide immediately off the snap, Cobb settles into the void instead of staying on the run to the sideline. The read for Watson is to quickly check if the outside receiver can win on his deep route and then to read that same flat defender for a high/low with Cobb and the running back.
Again, with the flat guy so wide, it creates space for Cobb to sit into. Watson reads it the same way and delivers into the void. He hammered Cover 3 this season to the tune of a 93.0 grade, which ranked second-best in the league during the regular season.
The Steelers are starting to get nervous and show like they are going to pressure Watson and play man coverage behind it. They end up rushing only four while playing man with a low-hole defender. Watson is looking to his right early in the drop and sees the player covering Fells run and open a window for Cooks on the in-breaking route.
The problem is that the Texans' offensive line has trouble picking up a stunt along the line of scrimmage, forcing Watson to come off his spot. When he’s ready to throw again, it looks like that low-hole defender spooks from throwing to Cooks, so he takes off into an opening and gets outside the pocket before finding Fells on the sideline for another first down.
Plays like this are where Watson really took his game to another level. We’ve always known he can move around outside the pocket, but he was throwing dimes when on the run in 2020. His grade improved from 67.6 on “scramble drill” plays in 2018 and 2019 to 94.5 this season, which led the league.
Again, the Steelers decide to blitz and play man coverage. Watson opens his dropback by looking to his right, but the man coverage on his wide receiver and the outside leverage on Fells by Cameron Sutton eliminates those two routes.
Watson moves his eyes to the left and finds Cobb again, this time on an in-breaking route, for another first down. Watson has always been good at these throws we chart as “horizontal leads.” He produced the third-highest grade in the league on these types of throws beyond 10 yards. He also led the league in the regular season on throws that we chart as “next read” — where his eyes had to work back across the field.
The touchdown throw is a beautiful drop in the bucket to Will Fuller V. The Steelers are showing man to man with one-high safety before the snap, and as long as that safety doesn’t fly over to the sideline, Watson is going to take his shot to Fuller. In rhythm. Beautiful throw. Six points.
This was Watson the whole season, even if the wins and traditional box score stats didn’t come with it. He took his game to the next level, and it’s why whenever you see potential trade packages for him, the return is astronomical.
If this is who Deshaun Watson is going forward — not a one-hit wonder — there are maybe four teams in the NFL that don’t need to take a look at him. Watson was the best quarterback in the league in 2020, and he arguably had the best season from a signal-caller in the past 15 years.
