Referred to the prosecutor is the step that happens before a possible indictment, no?
Someone posted up a well-written link that kinda laid this out (albeit in generic terms... meaning it might be different depending on state, judge, etc).
IIRC, it talked about the part we're actually debating in terms of Watson... when a charge is presented to the grand jury, how often do they return an indictment. That article I'm trying to recall seemed to indicate that when a charge is brought, indictment is usually pretty likely.
I'm not trying to argue the other parts that have been brought up (women not coming forward out of fear, prosecutors not wanting to take the allegation to the GJ, and ultimately those allegations resulting in a guilty charge/plea). I'm trying to focus on and gain clarity on that one specific step in the whole process.
The Rate of Indictment
Based on the influence of the prosecutor, who (other than the court reporter) is the only non-juror present and who selects the evidence to present, various studies have suggested that the rate of indictment by a grand jury ranges from approximately 95% to approximately 99%.
This one shows 99.99% indictment rate but is for federal grand juries.
Link This one is interesting, but lacks numbers. It comments on some flaws in the grand jury system.
It's hard to find more directly applicable percentages. The numbers do seem to be consistently high.
