Getting the compensatory pick is dependent on how many free agents we sign (really what they get paid) versus how much money other teams pay for guys we let walk during the off-season. Over-simplified there...but close enough.
Point #1 - IF we are to get ANY compensatory picks for Mayfield, it will be for the 2024 draft. That is not "next year"...it is the year AFTER next.
Point #2 - We do not have a 1st Rd pick again for 2023. We love 1yr contracts. Put those two things together and the chances that the Browns will NOT be players in free agency after the '22 season are likely slim. Our window is now. Hunt is a free agent after this year...there are many others that will be FAs after this year that don't come to mind right now. If both Mayfield AND Hunt AND ??? were added together, we might have some hope in the compensatory formula...but that depends on how much new FA $$$ we spend.
Whatever we can get for Baker in a trade is better than rolling the dice with the possibility of getting a compensatory pick...a compensatory pick for Baker is too far away (when your window is now) and much too uncertain (given no #1 draft pick and our 3rd Rd pick being late for '23 AND expiring contracts and possibly needing FA signings to keep up.)
However, if we still have Baker after the trade deadline...THEN considering the compensatory pick becomes viable. At that point, do you cut him to free up the roster spot? Or do you keep him a few more months (since you are paying him anyway) and THEN hope for the compensatory pick the year after next.
I frequently read talk about a 3rd Rd compensatory pick as if it's guaranteed (it's not) and for next year (which it's not).
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