Off topic, but bears a little relevance.
Last election, my son (huge Bernie Bros at the time) kept trying to sell me polling info, I kept telling him the polls were all hogwash and pointed to 2016. "If you want to get the real pulse, check the Vegas odds, they'll be much more accurate".
We did, and I almost placed a bet. I wanted to put a bill on Warren at +1800, and a bill on Biden at +1100. My whole theory was based on the
fact that there was no way the establishment would let Bernie win the nomination (again). You couldn't hedge (at the time) on Trump because he was -250 and would eat all of your profit... but I reasoned those odds would improve dramatically once the primaries decided on the democrat. And you could wait as long as you wanted for the best odds leading up to the election. They did, dramatically... Trump was +200 in late October, meaning I lost the prospect of stupid easy money with absolutely no risk.
I reasoned, going forward, that this would be an ongoing "edge" whenever an incumbent could run for a second term. Unfortunately, Biden is too much of a lame duck to inflate the odds on the other side. Right now, Trump is +250 and DeSantis is +325... Luckily, I've been watching -- and locked in DeSantis at +1100,
two short months ago. Now that anybody who's reading is wondering why... Seeing the changes in the odds on the other side tells me that Vegas "think" is definitely trending toward
Gavin Newsome on the other side. His odds have dropped more than anyone else. I'm about to hop on while he's still at +1400.
Blue needs lightning in a bottle. Biden and Harris are both candles in the wind. Fetterman is a cigar looking for a pack of matches. Newsome, as terrible as he is, may be the only option at catching lightning. US Presidential Election 2024 Futures | Winner
Donald Trump
+250
Ron DeSantis
+325
Joe Biden
+500
Gavin Newsom
+1400
Kamala Harris
+1400
Mike Pence
+2000
Nikki Haley
+2000
Pete Buttigieg
+2500
