Good post. I know I'll probably go off the rails a bit here, so I apologize in advance.

Scenario #1: No way, no how. Before the Browns threw their hat in the ring of "The Watson Sweepstakes", we all knew that those were strong areas of weakness. DT was already a revolving door and our top two WR from a season before were gone. Nobody can be that stupid.

Scenario #2: Eh, I won't blame analytics because analytics went out the door once we paid the steep price for Watson. So, although analytics and ego were hand-in-hand leading to the decision, "just can't get it done with Baker" made that journey inevitable. If they thought Baker was no way, no how; none of the rest matters (at least not in their minds). One would have to think that analytics played a part though... we traded out of the second (#44) to stack a third and two fourths... analytics would say we were "draft poor" after the monumental haul given to the Texans for Watson. It's hard to look down the barrel of a 2022 draft and make any judgement on the talent we passed on by trading #44, but maybe analytics says that without can't-miss-talent at DT/DE, it's better to take more stabs at it?

DePodesta: "When I think of analytics, I just think of having sure frameworks to make decisions under uncertainty." This is where there is a disconnect... We created a world of uncertainty by trading for Watson. I think we were pretty sure that he would be suspended 4-6 games at the time; but we threw "certainty" out the window. So now that there wasn't certain talent to fill areas of need, we banked on the "analytics go to"... upside. That approach led to David Bell and Perrion Winfrey.

Scenario #3: Cap and rollover became the only bullets left in the chamber. While we waited on "the decision" we kept that close to the vest (as we should). Once the news of the suspension came to pass, preserving that was no-brainer. Uncertainty became the only word to even describe the upcoming season at that point. Going forward, our draft stock sucks for two more years. Much of the decision pertaining to how quickly we spend can't even be addressed until we see Watson on the field.


When we pursued Watson, a 4-6 game suspension was the expected outcome. Going forward was probably a lot more cut and dried if that came to pass. Instead, uncertainty became a storm that had us drowning, with no clear-cut answers to most decisions... as we waited... and waited. Once we met our fate with the 11 game decision, 2022 became "let's see what we have before we make any brash decisions". At that point, cap and rollover became the only tools toward improving beyond the talent we have on the roster today. It wouldn't be sacrificed unless we caught lightning in a bottle with Brissett. Next year we'll have a middle-of-the-road 2nd round pick as our only standout stab at the draft. Our third is an end of round comp pick. We'll have cap space and possible trade chips to address any other upgrades.

To add even more uncertainty -- if Brissett is the average QB we think he is, the defense doesn't "figure it out", and Watson doesn't appear to be "the savior we deserve" down the stretch; we may very well be "lol same 'ole Browns" to any high-profile free agents. So, open up the doors and let the same stench back in that we worked forever to rid from the halls in Berea. Now obviously, that's worst case scenario, but the job of "analyzing" is to reconcile all scenarios.

So yes... as certain as we (as fans) can be about scenario #1, we can be just as certain that the common-sense approach to moving forward is to hold the assets we have until we see how 2022 plays out. At least that's the way I see it.