The market is always set by what the market will will bear. That's the nature of the beast in any corporation. As much as fans would like to believe otherwise, that's exactly what the NFL is. A corporation. All one has to do is look at the decline in the cost of NFL RB franchise tag numbers to see what a RB is worth in the NFL. There are some great RB's out there who can't get what they believe is a fair contract.

You may be correct with Chubb still being very good for the next three seasons however. There are facts that support just how fast a RB's stats fall off the cliff after 1800 carries. Chubb has currently had 1210 carries. Last season he had 302 carries. At that pace he wouldn't "fall off the cliff" until the end of the 2024 season which is two more years. I do believe his intense training may buy him one more season which would add up to your three year prediction.

Here is a breakdown of the 1800 carry cliff.

Measuring NFL Running Back Longevity: Falling Off the 1,800-Carry Cliff

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news...gevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff

His current contract has him being a Brown through the 2024 season. The question becomes that after all we've seen in regards to the Browns investment in the passing game and the apparent evolution into becoming more pass heavy, will they be willing to continue paying Chubb his high salary?

I'm a huge Nick Chubb fan. I would love nothing more than to see him remain a Browns until his retirement. But I'm also fully aware that it's the business side of this on the part of not only the team but on the side of Nick Chubb himself that will decide that. I think one must consider that a top RB is far more valuable to a team that does not have a prolific QB. They have to depend a lot more on the production of their running game that a team like the Chiefs don't have to. So if watson turns out to be a huge success that may help sway the scales for the Browns not to wish to make a huge investment in the running game moving forward. You don't need a great RB to have a productive running game when the opposing defense has to respect your passing game and can no longer stack the box.

Maybe Chubb will be willing to accept a huge discount. Maybe not.