I think Watson is very talented and I think (read: hope lol) he will turn things around. It's like you said though, 40% of the money gone, nothing in return.
I think to be worthy of the investment, we'll need a championship caliber season or three, be able to see enough of his talent on the field to extend him, realizing he keeps the window open longer, and fit so well that our offense becomes plug 'n play for the next few years. Less doesn't necessarily mean we busted on this investment, it just means that we didn't spend appropriately for what we got in return.
Elephant in the room for me: He's not physically engineered to be a mobile QB in this league. Everyone brushed off the rookie season torn ACL on the practice field. Big whatever because of the next three seasons of playing nearly every game. His career had been a highlight reel of elite athleticism in avoiding big hits. He's not that guy anymore imo.
He'll be 29 early this season. Everytime he takes any hit, there will be a collective groan and grimace reverberating from the sideline all through NE Ohio. He was injured last year on a designed run play near the goalline, instead of sliding for the first down, he tried to get into the endzone. Then a bad shoulder became "his shoulder fell apart". Not good.
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