DawgTalkers.net Forums Thread Like Summary - Going for it on 4th Down

Milk Man posted this in the Post Game thread and I wanted to use it to discuss factors that influence going for it on 4th down:

Some follow that statistics and will simply say Stefanski (and others) are making the "RIGHT" call when they go for it on 4th and short no mater what because analytics says it's the right call. Personally I think there are several factors which play into this.

One factor that doesn't seem to get enough air play is the vast differences that "4th and Short" cover. Short typically is anything from 1-3 yards. And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize going for it on 4th and 1 is (or it should be) significantly different and easier than going for it on 4th and 3. The statistics that tell us that teams are successful on 65% of 4th down attempts is therefore highly skewed - teams going for it on 4th and 1 *probably* are successful much more than 65% of the time. Teams going for it on 4th and 3 are most probably significantly less successful. But when it's 4th and short during a game - or even post game when discussing the call - no-one is breaking down accurate figures for the actual down and distance. It's why the 4th and 3 attempt versus the Falcons is far from a slam dunk that some seem to want to pretend.

Another factor which Milk Man's tweet highlights is the outcome differential between going for it and being successful vs not getting it AND the outcome of simply punting or kicking a FG. If I am reading the tweet correctly - the stats suggest that getting the 4th down gives the Chargers an 88% win probability. (I'd argue it was higher based on the time on the clock and CLE time outs - but we'll roll with 88%). Odds of winning if they punted was 76%. They estimated the Chargers had a 70% chance of being successful on 4th down. That *seems* to suggest the right call was to go for it. BUT what they have not shown us is the probability the Browns win if the Chargers went for it and were not successful. I think we all felt we were going to win the game as soon as they failed the 4th down attempt. The probability of a win in that situation should have been very high - maybe 70-80%? Two or Three plays to make 6-7-8 yards to make the FG easier. . . . So the win differential between going for it and being successful (88%) and not being successful (say 30%) for the Chargers needs to be looked at in comparison to the win probability if they had punted - 76%. To me that is an easy call - punt every time unless you are facing Josh Allen, Herbert, Mahomes or similar dynamic offenses. So a third factor below needs to be factored in, see below.

A 3rd factor which I think is uber important - momentum of the game and both teams. And this can affect the decision whether you are in the lead or behind and chasing. If you are winning and your defense is dominating, it affects your decision (it should have yesterday). If you are behind and your defense is struggling to stop the other team, you go for it when the stats might not quite be in your offenses favor, but you know the odds of your D stopping them is even less. I mean this would seem so completely obvious to anyone watching a game live - but in the aftermath and when the discussion suddenly relies mostly on statistics and analytics I think a lot of it gets lost. And again drawing from yesterday's game, in that moment I know I wanted the Chargers to go for it because I felt that was the only chance we had to win: somehow stop them, because if they had punted I had absolutely no confidence we could move the ball 40 yards into FG position.

Specifically with Stefanski and the Browns and fans questioning his calls, others defending his calls .... I've said and others have said: If you are successful at a lower rate than the rest of the NFL - then the point and frequency with which you decide to go for it MUST change. Teams successful at 65% of the time should have a different trigger point for going for it than teams being successful at 41% of the time. AND when we do have a 4th and 1 - QB sneak is definitely the most successful play call. Two links below: First is team success rates on 4th down from 2021 - CLE is 3rd worst in the NFL at 41.4% --- but we went for it at a rate that was 8th highest in the league. That's so backwards to how it should be. The second link is from 2015 so a little dated but shows the play type and success rates for 4th and short - QB sneak, run, pass. QB Sneak is by far and away the most succesful call - and no doubt reflects that it is normally called from a 4th and 1 situation.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-4th-down-attempts-in-2021

https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down

Bottom line is there is a lot of grey to many of these decisions and not nearly as black and white as some pretend.

I have no problem with going for it based on the statistical evidence. In many cases it's the right call. We have made many 4th down calls and stayed alive over the last few years where in years past we and other teams punted.

It still doesn't, nor can it take in to account game situations. That is where the individual coach has to weigh the pro's and cons of going for it on 4th down.

If you are punting on 4th down pretty much no matter what, that is wrong. If you are going for it every time in situations where your chart says to go for it, that is wrong. This isn't like playing blackjack where if you are good you know when the odds are in your favor. Nothing really changes that. In football there are things like momentum that do come in to play.

I guess it was the last game. We went for it early in the game on the 3 yard line. Everything may have pointed towards going for it, but it didn't take in to account the importance of scoring first. Somewhere in the stats it has to show that the team who scores first has a better chance of winning. I have to believe that until someone can show me differently.

That was the one time we went for it where I totally disagreed with the decision. I was fine with all the others. I am no analytics guru, but I think the stats show that 3+3=6. In a game where points add up, it seems to me that when you add points to your total, it has to have some impact on the opponents analytical chart on how they have to go about managing their game.

Like John Madden once said "The team that scores the most points, is probably going to win this one."

What I think is left out is taking into consideration how "your team" succeeds or does not succeed on fourth and shot yardage situations. In the Browns case with such a good run blocking OL along with Hunt and Chubb one would think it would favor the Browns. I don't know that it does. First you would have to call a play that would take advantage of that situation.

Looking at a stat from a league wide average is certainly one way to approach it. But I would think that the success rate would most certainly be situational from team to team. You are correct about 4th and 1 having a higher percentage of success....


It's actually a pretty good breakdown on 4th and 1 calls.

When it comes to breaking down 4th and short situations by team, it appears some teams simply don't have the team to make it successful as the stats used in your post would indicate at least for this season. The Browns rank 9th and seem to do pretty well at it which I didn't really expect being 9th in the league.


By changing the year on the chart to last year, a total season, they did very poorly at it ranking 30th with just over a 41% rate.

In 2020 we ranked 27th with just under a 41% rate.

When looking at these charts it seems most teams have far less a percentage of success at 4th and short than the statistics listed overall for the league.

While I can't say for a fact that whether a team should go for it on 4th and short is dependent more on their actual teams success rate, these stats certainly indicate that's the case.